I just found this and thought I would share. The two quotes in the article were the ones I thought were the most interesting, and if you would like to read the whole thing, by all means follow the link below.
What is cool here is Pratap has estimated a ratio of contractors to troops for this drawdown, based on the surges in Afghanistan and Iraq, and the drawdown in Iraq. Or basically the numbers needed for the buildup or drawdown of a conflict. It would be interesting to see how well these figures hold up after all is said and done? Either way, I thought the numbers were pretty impressive.
In the article, he also mentioned how much private security has grown in Afghanistan, and I have talked about that in the past as well. He has predicted, and I agree, that DoS will have a pretty sizable requirement for security contractors there, much like for Iraq.
The other quote that I put up that was interesting, was the possible factors that could impact these numbers. That Karzai could implement the ban on private security companies under Decree 62, and install his own police force wherever. Or there could be a dramatic decrease in reconstruction.
The reconstruction stuff I do not see, because folks want a return on investment for projects they have already invested millions into. If not, what a waste of money? Better to finish the project and then leave.
As to Karzai banning private security companies? Well, as Pratap brought up, I think the latest attack at the Intercontinental Hotel in Kabul should change that mindset. I mean Karzai is responsible for shutting down and limiting PSC’s already. According to my readership, the MOI is sitting on approximately 45 licenses that have yet to be issued to companies so they can do their job.
So let’s think about that? That is 45 companies that are wanting to provide security in a country where the enemy is purposely targeting civilians, and the MOI is just sitting on these licenses? The enemy is attacking hotels, supermarkets, hospitals, reconstruction sites, etc., and yet these private security assets are just wasting away…. I say let these private companies contract with private security, and let the Afghan police and military fight crime and wars. -Matt
…Using a range of 1.3 to 1.4 (based on what Afghanistan needed before the surge and Iraq needed after the drawdown), I would project that if the Obama administration draws down to 68,000 troops in Afghanistan by September 2012, they will need 88,400 contractors at the very least, but potentially as many as 95,880.
….But the one group that has seen demand explode since Obama became president is the number of private security contractors (men or women with guns), which spiked from a flat line of about 4,000 to almost 19,000 today. Given the attack on the Intercontinental in Kabul yesterday, that number seems very unlikely to drop.To be sure, there are two reasons that might change — a dramatic slowdown in reconstruction activity or if President Karzai decides to disband the private security contractors in the country as he has threatened to do in the past. -Pratap Chatterjee.