Archive for category Iraq

Industry Talk: US Embassy In Iraq Reducing Staff From 10,500 To 5,500 By End Of Year

Mar 25

Posted by Matt in Industry Talk, Iraq | No Comments

Wow, that is a pretty substantial cut in personnel. Although from the sounds of it, there will still be a significant security force to support the fewer than 1,000 diplomats that remain. Which makes sense, because the embassy is still a large area to cover down on, regardless of how many folks are in it.
If anything, the reduction in security folks would be WPS personnel who would normally provide PSD teams to go out into the countryside. But even that might not see too much of a reduction just because the diplomats that are left, still have to go outside the wire. I also wonder how many missions they were really doing ever since the troops pulled out and the threats not going away in Iraq? If anyone with an inside track on this would like to comment, feel free to do so below.
I also think it is telling that we have had this massive presence at the embassy in Iraq, and the return on investment has been so poor. Meaning recently, Secretary of State John Kerry visited Iraq and got into it with Iraq about their policy of supporting the Assad regime with cargo/weapons flights coming out of Iraq into Syria. Obviously this is a source of contention, and Iraq could care less what the west wants them to do. So much for having a thousands of diplomats and a $750 million dollar embassy? lol -Matt

 

Massive American Embassy in Baghdad cutting staff sharply decade after war in Iraq began
March 20, 2013
A decade after the start of the war in Iraq, the American diplomatic footprint here is shrinking fast.
As recently as a year ago, the immense U.S. Embassy in Baghdad and other sites around the country were staffed by more than 16,000 personnel. Today, that number has fallen to about 10,500, U.S. Ambassador Robert Stephen Beecroft said this week.
By the end of the year, Beecroft said he expects to have just 5,500 employees in Iraq. Most of them will be security personnel and other outside contractors assigned to support the fewer than 1,000 diplomats who remain. More cuts are expected beyond the end of the year.
“That number will continue to go down. . And they’ll go down largely on the contracting side,” Beecroft said in his residence on the heavily guarded compound on the banks of the Tigris River.
The sprawling, fortress-like U.S. Embassy officially opened in early 2009 at a cost of more than $730 million as the largest American mission in the world. But it has been under pressure to cut costs.
The downsizing in many ways reflects how sharply wartime assumptions about the extent of American influence in Iraq have shifted since construction on the Vatican City-sized compound began in 2005. Sweeping reconstruction and nation-building efforts championed early on are much less of a priority today, even as Iraq’s Shiite-led government forges stronger ties with neighboring Shiite powerhouse and U.S. foe Iran.
America still has influence here, with Iraq-based diplomats and officials in Washington in frequent contact with Iraqi political and military leaders. But Washington was unable to win Iraqi guarantees that would have allowed a continued military presence — something that deprived the U.S. of important leverage in Baghdad, former U.S. Secretary of Defense Leon Panetta recently told a government watchdog.

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Afghanistan: The Discussion On Troop Numbers Beyond 2014

Nov 26

Posted by Matt in Afghanistan, Iraq | No Comments

A Wall Street Journal report, meanwhile, said top Obama administration officials want to keep about 10,000 American troops in the country – a midpoint in the range of options that Allen presented to Panetta, which the newspaper said varied from 6,000 to 15,000.
Many observers have said the Afghan government is unlikely to be able to take over logistical operations, air support and other facets of the current war, in addition to the training and counterterrorism missions foreign troops would provide.

As the article pointed out below, a solid number is premature. But you can definitely point to a ‘range’ of what we are looking at in the quote up top.

The other thing to think about with this stuff is the logistics requirements of Afghanistan beyond 2014. We have given the Afghans a military force that requires some serious upkeep, and especially the aviation assets. Couple that with the idea that most Afghans have a poor reading capability (hence cannot read a manual to fix or maintain whatever), that it will take someone with outside expertise to continue to assist. That is where contractors will come in.

I also look at Afghanistan’s means of financially supporting this military as the west exits. Where will the revenue come from to pay salaries and maintain this military and government?  So economics plays into this, and I think the west will continue to support Afghanistan well after we are gone. So yet again, with western dollars comes western contractors to support the Afghans.

One final point is Iraq and how that turned out, might be a scenario for Afghanistan. Meaning we purposely depended upon Iraq to use their parliament to come up with a SOFA, knowing full well that parliament would not support immunity of any sorts for US troops in their country. It is a smart political move by the US administration, who wanted fully out of Iraq, because they knew that Iraqi politicians did not want to be known as the leaders that wanted US troops to stay. Some would say we pulled out prematurely in Iraq because of those politics and not because of a logical withdrawal plan–but that is another discussion and only time will tell with that country.

So if we start doing actions that put the full decision of troops staying in Afghanistan, into the hands of Afghans and not just one main leader, then we might see an exodus of troops from Afghanistan much like how Iraq turned out. Just because Afghan politicians do not want to be viewed as the folks that supported foreign occupiers to stay. (May is when a new SOFA is to be decided upon…) Any SOFA that does not have troop immunity in it, is a sure sign that we will be exiting, and contractors will be the only ones left standing–just like in Iraq. -Matt

 

Pentagon: Discussion of troop numbers remaining in Afghanistan ‘premature’
By CHRIS CARROLL
November 26, 2012
The Pentagon says it plans to tell the White House within weeks how many American troops military leaders believe will be needed in Afghanistan after 2014 to train local forces and continue to target al-Qaida.
With NATO’s formal combat role set to end in just over two years, the United States — along with its NATO allies and the Afghan government — is keen to define a postwar presence well in advance, avoiding the precipitous pullout and security problems that came with the end of the Iraq War.
The troop calculations, however, have to achieve a delicate balance that weighs military capability against the U.S. public’s weariness of continuing conflict – and meets Afghan expectations of the residual force.
The troop strength recommendation will be based on options presented in recent weeks by Marine Gen. John Allen, the NATO commander for the war, to Defense Secretary Leon Panetta. The final decision has yet to be made, officials said.

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Publications: CRS On Contracting–Learning From The Past And Preparing For The Future, By Moshe Schwartz

Nov 3

Posted by Matt in Afghanistan, Industry Talk, Iraq, Publications | No Comments

This is a great little document, just because Moshe Schwartz has been in the middle of this contracting reporting game for a long time, and has come up with some great lessons learned. He also works for the congressional research service and has authored several reports on the war that I have commented on in the past.

Some stuff that jumped out at me was the idea of teaching ‘how to manage contractors’ in the military academies and schools. To actually have mock contractors on exercises with the military, so officers and NCO’s have some experience working with this group. Especially since we make up over ‘half’ of the forces in the war–it kind of makes sense that the military should learn to how to work with and manage this force. So bravo to Moshe for pointing this out and I hope the military continues to pursue this and professionalize contractor management.

This leads me to another thought. I think the best group to set up mock contracting scenarios during exercises, would be contractors themselves. So perhaps this would be a niche that a company can provide to the military? There are numerous companies that provide mock villages and cultural training to the military to better prepare the troops before they deploy. The same concept could be applied to training the military on how best to work with and manage contractors.

One of the mantras of the military is to train as you fight and fight as you train. Given the extent to which contractors may be relied upon in future operations, conducting exercises without contractors could be akin to training without half of the force present. A number of analysts have called for incorporating contractors and contractor scenarios into appropriate military exercises to better prepare military planners and operational commanders for future operations. -pg. 7-8

Another way to look at this is that contractors, much like Iraqis or Afghans, are a group that you must understand ‘culturally’ in order to best work with them. I say culturally, because strangely enough, not all contractors are prior service. And not all contractors come from the US. So you have a lot of factors that the military command has to deal with, if they want those contractors to be assets to the mission and not liabilities.

Which brings me to the next point of interest. Moshe mentioned that as the wars wind down, and troops and budgets get cut, the military will be looking for ways of saving money and expanding the usefulness of the manpower they have. So to do that would require a smarter use of contractors to support the programs they have. The British mentioned this as well in their drive to save money and stay operational.

To what extent will potential budget cuts or force structure changes impact DoD reliance on contractors?
As discussed in this report, post-Cold War budget cuts resulted in an increased reliance on contractors. According to reports, budget cuts and plans to restructure the military in Britain will result in an increased reliance on contractors to provide operational contract support. Further budget cuts to the US military could have similar result. One question for Congress is to what extent budget cuts, the imposition of personnel caps, or a restructuring of the force will lead to an increased reliance on contractors? -pg. 12

Not only that, but if you remember the paper written by Bruce Stanley as to the relationship between the cycles of war and contractor use, it makes even more sense why we should remember these lessons so we can be prepared for future conflict.

This study argues that when political leaders choose to reduce their nation’s military force structure, they may face conflicts beyond their anticipated scope and duration. Such decision-makers are left with no choice but to legalize and legitimize the use of PMCs resulting in the increased use of PMCs as a deliberate tool of foreign policy.

Or how I interpret this is that a nation wants to enjoy the peace dividend when the war ends, so they cut budgets and reduce the force to make everyone happy and recover economically. But then another war happens several years down the road, and you go to war with army you have and not the one you wish you had. So we play catch up and we use contractors to fill the gaps or assist in support–which is what happened in Iraq and Afghanistan post Cold War.

Contractors are pretty vital to that game of catch up, which is of strategic importance to this nation. So yeah, learning from past mistakes and preparing for the future is something we need to do here, and bravo to Moshe and others for making that point.  -Matt

 

Operational Contract Support: Learning From The Past And Preparing For The Future, By Moshe Schwartz

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Publications: Contractor Support Of USCENTCOM AOR, 4th Quarter FY 2012

Oct 31

Posted by Matt in Afghanistan, Iraq, Publications | No Comments

The interesting part of this report is that there is very little change from last quarter as far as the overall numbers. In the 3rd quarter, there were 136,901 contractors overall, and in this quarter there are 137,407. So it is an increase, but by a small margin.

The other thing that jumped up at me was that contractor numbers actually increased in Iraq. In the third quarter we saw 7,336 and in this quarter we see 9,000!

We also see some numbers for the APPF force which was supposed to replace contractors in Afghanistan. The statistic that perked me up was the amount of ‘risk management consultants’–220– that was required to watch over the 2,407 APPF folks. These risk management consultants are contractors that represent the companies, and it is just funny that with all of this attention placed on the APPF being the solution, that they still need that many ‘consultants’. lol

The other interesting statistic is the Private Security numbers, or the armed contractors in both Iraq and Afghanistan. In Iraq, there is more use of security contractors from other countries other than the US. The local national use really hasn’t changed that much.

In Afghanistan, you see an increase in US private security use. In the 3rd quarter we saw 480 US security folks, and in the 4th quarter we see an increase to 2,014! Now I am going to speculate that perhaps the reason for this, is the increase in insider attacks and an increase in using Americans to guard FOB’s. The military is wanting to hand over the security of these bases so that it can save some money and use the remaining manpower for training missions or combat support for their other operations out there. -Matt

 

Contractor Support Of USCENTCOM AOR, 4th Quarter FY 2012

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Industry Talk: As The Wars Wind Down, How Will The Industry Adapt?

Oct 25

Posted by Matt in Afghanistan, Industry Talk, Iraq | No Comments

The most vulnerable firms, many in industry say, may be those who have relied on ongoing U.S. military work that is now drying up as the Pentagon “Operational Contingency Allowance” – the additional funding earmarked for the wars – tapers off.
At its peak, the U.S. Commission on Wartime Contracting, a bipartisan legislative commission established to study wartime contracting in Iraq and Afghanistan, estimated there might have been as many as 260,000 contractors in the two countries...
“At the moment, everyone is looking for work that is not OCA-funded,” one industry executive told Reuters on condition of anonymity, saying he expected an era of mergers and even bankruptcies. “It’s going to be like when the tide goes out at the beach and you suddenly find out who has been naked.”

With this post I wanted to identify some trends in the industry that I am seeing as the wars wind down and budgets get tighter. I have posted a couple of articles below that will give you an idea as to what companies are doing and what their strategies are for survival or for growth.

What is interesting with DynCorp and EODT, is their focus on maintaining dominance as to what they are good at. DynCorp is all about aviation and EODT is all about mine clearing. Although both companies do other things in the industry, it is obvious in the posts below that they are taking actions in the market that position them as leaders in these niches.

EODT merging with Sterling International, to form a new company called Sterling Global International is an example of the kind of mergers the top quote was referring too. What is interesting with this move is that for mine clearing operations in the worst parts of the world, you need all sorts of folks to make that happen. From the security to protect those mine clearing technicians to the logistics tail to support an operation. These are all things that EODT did in Iraq and Afghanistan, and by joining forces with SI, they are able to reach other markets. Here is a hint to what they are looking at.

The release said Sterling manages a $175 million weapons removal and abatement program for the State Department, and Kaye said that in comparison to EODT, the Virginia firm is more involved in the work of nonproliferation.
“While the activities that (EODT does) are nonproliferation, they’re much more in a mass-quantity stockpile reduction,” he said. “Sterling is on the forefront of … assisting countries with treaty compliance (and) establishing mine action centers.”
Kaye said Sterling has approximately 150 employees, and the new company will have about 3,500 employees.
After a round of layoffs earlier this year, EODT said it had 250 American employees and 3,000 foreign nationals.
Kaye said Sterling International’s program manager for conventional weapons destruction will remain in that position with the new company……The release said the combined companies will continue to serve existing customers, but will also expand into markets including energy exploration and development and judicial and criminal justice support.

So this new mega mine clearing company will continue to pursue munitions destruction and assist countries in compliance with treaties. I also imagine the Arab Spring is leaving a lot of unexploded munitions all over the place, which if investors want to do business in some of these places, someone needs to remove this dangerous trash of war.

But the big one that perked me up is the mention of energy exploration that was talked about in the next article. One company mentioned was Garda World and their work in Iraq.

Even with U.S. troops gone from Iraq and the number of government contractors down, some companies say they are finding strong demand from energy firms for protection, particularly around Basra in southern Iraq.
“We are as busy as ever and the need has never been greater,” said Pete Dordal, senior vice president at GardaWorld, a global risk management and security services firm. “I don’t want to say it’s a gold rush, but business is very good.”

A gold rush? Interesting, and I imagine that with unrest in the middle east, all energy companies are looking hard at their security and hardening up.  Iraq is just one example of the kind of risk that energy companies are willing to make when it comes to resource extraction in really bad places. Libya is another example, and capable PMSC’s that can protect these energy companies are essential. (11 plus years of war have definitely produced companies that are certainly capable of providing protection in war zones and third world countries)

Another area mentioned was maritime security and the demand for that. Although I am seeing that market getting extremely saturated with companies, all fighting over contracts. But it is an area to get into and I do not see piracy going away any time soon. An example of that is that piracy increased off the west coast of Africa.

The article made a mention of the whole private navies thing, and they are right. I have not seen this get off the ground yet. It’s close, and we will see if it ever sets sail.

One area of business that was brought up in the article was evacuation of clients from countries that have fallen due to the Arab Spring or other disasters. Check out the contract Control Risks had in Libya, and I imagine the company they did this for, paid a pretty penny.

Private security firms, insiders say, evacuated the vast majority of the thousands of foreign nationals plucked from Libya as its civil war erupted early last year. Most were contracted by other private firms, although governments also used them heavily. London-based Control Risks told Reuters last year that China hired it directly to fly hundreds of its nationals out by airliner.

Other areas mentioned or business that I think will add to the market is supporting UN missions like AMISOM, or supporting the post-reconstruction efforts in countries after wars or disasters. Yet again, thanks to the Arab Spring and the wars, and the destruction that has come out of that struggle, there are plenty of places requiring the services of capable companies.

The article ended with an excellent point by Edmond Mulet.

“In some places, contractors might be more effective than some of the troops from contributing nations,” said Edmond Mulet, U.N. Assistant Secretary General for Peacekeeping Operations.
“But the U.N. is simply the sum of its member states and some of them are opposed to the use of contractors in some roles,” he told the conference.

For companies to be marketable, they will have to continue to fight this poor image that the industry is painted with–thanks to the actions of the few. Things like the ISO standards or the ICoC are great for promoting the idea that the industry is trying to correct itself, but there is one thing missing in the industry that I have been hammering on since the beginning of this blog. Leadership.

I believe the secret sauce to the success for all companies, is a focus on fielding good sound leadership to support contracts. It is the leader that will ensure the contract is followed and that operations are sound. It is the leader that will work hard to take care of his people and prevent any actions that might embarrass the company or client. And it is the act of a smart company that supports or grows or hunts down outstanding leaders–and rewards these folks. Leadership, leadership, leadership, and I cannot say it enough.

Clients need good capable contracting leaders as well. Someone that actually cares about constructing a sound contract and cares more about best value and less about what is cheapest. You need a contracting officer who cares–who acts like they are constructing a contract for a doctor who would be assigned to their mother–or a body guard who would be assigned to their mother. Budget constraints will be difficult, but folks must have the courage to do what is right with this stuff.

So the final article is about Dyncorp’s Steven F. Gaffney and his thoughts on the future. I always like hearing what the leaders of companies say, and you can get a real feel sometimes as to what they are optimistic about or concerned about. Here are his thoughts on leadership and what is working in his company.

What have you been focusing on?
It really comes down to: Do you have the right people doing the right things? Are you organized the right way? And the business systems that you have in place — are they strong enough to support the pressures of the business? About 90 percent of our top three levels of leadership are either new to the company or they’re new in position. In two years, we’ve restructured twice around getting to the right market-focused, customer-focused type of organization. We stood up a new business development organization, and we were able to move our win rates from the low teens to close to 50 percent of everything that we bid.

This is very interesting, because he has identified a weakness of the company (I imagine it applies to other companies as well). 90 percent of your top three levels of leadership being new to the company or new in position is not something to cheer about. That is great that the company has re-organized and has achieved a higher ‘win’ rate for contracts, but how can these leaders possibly be effective in carrying out policy if they haven’t a clue about the company’s history or lacks any memory or experience working for the company?

I would also be curious as to why so many new leaders? Is that because of high attrition or is this because of expansion? That is great that the company is winning so many contracts, but if you do not have capable and experienced leaders to implement that stuff, the company is going to have problems.

The other part of interest was the future of the company as the wars wind down?

What’s your strategy as the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan wind down?
I joined the company knowing full well that the changes were going to happen in Iraq and Afghanistan. In fact, many of the programs that we have today — the goal is really to put yourself out of a job. In 2003, when we became one of the largest trainers of police in the Middle East, we knew that the goal was to train a country so that they could perform the function themselves. We’ve been thinking about this issue around what’s next for some time, and that’s why we’ve been working to rebalance our portfolio since I got here. Our aviation business, for instance — today it’s a third of our revenues and half of our earnings. That wasn’t the case two short years ago. A couple months ago, we made a small acquisition in the aviation business to fill a gap that we had, not for the business that we have today but to compete for business two years from now and also get us into the commercial space.

That’s their plan–to rally around aviation. Which is their ‘bread and butter’ and totally makes sense to me, but it would have been nice to hear the other areas of interest.

One area that was not talked about too much in all of these articles was the future of government service contracts as the war winds down. The US government still has a presence in places like Iraq and Afghanistan, and embassies and consulates there and around the world will still require armed security services and logistics. These contracts will continue to be highly competitive as the US continues to reduce involvement in those countries and the available re-construction/COIN related contracts decrease. Training gigs will still be present, but as budgets get tighter and involvement in those countries continues to be politically difficult, eventually that will go away. But we will see how it goes, and there will still be investments in those countries, and the US and it’s partners will still have interest there.

Pretty interesting stuff and we will see how it goes. If anyone has any other ideas or things that I have missed here, by all means please add to the post by commenting below. -Matt

 

Peruvian private security guard, Green Zone Iraq. -Artist Steve Mumford

 

EOD Technology merges with Sterling International
By Josh Flory
October 24, 2012
An East Tennessee defense contractor has joined forces with a Virginia firm.
Lenoir City-based EOD Technology announced Wednesday that it has merged with Reston, Va.-based Sterling International to form Sterling Global Operations.
The new company will be based in Lenoir City, and EODT CEO Matt Kaye will serve as president and CEO of the new venture.
Kaye said Wednesday that the combined companies form “the world’s preeminent conventional munitions disposal organization.”
Asked about the benefits of the deal to EODT, Kaye said that “it really diversifies our customer base. It strengthens our footprint around the world and provides us greater breadth and depth of resources.”
EODT got its start in 1987 as a company specializing in explosive ordnance disposal, and for years specialized in cleaning up contamination at former U.S. military sites. During the George W. Bush administration, EODT branched out into security operations and eventually became a major player in that market.
The company has also received some unwelcome scrutiny in connection with that work, though. In 2010, a U.S. Senate committee criticized EODT for its hiring practices in Afghanistan, and the following year it was revealed that the U.S. State Department had fired the company from a contract to guard the U.S. Embassy in Kabul.
EODT was raided by federal agents in 2010, although no charges have been filed in connection with that episode.
According to a news release, EODT’s employee stock ownership plan acquired Sterling International. Terms of the deal were not disclosed.
The release said Sterling manages a $175 million weapons removal and abatement program for the State Department, and Kaye said that in comparison to EODT, the Virginia firm is more involved in the work of nonproliferation.
“While the activities that (EODT does) are nonproliferation, they’re much more in a mass-quantity stockpile reduction,” he said. “Sterling is on the forefront of … assisting countries with treaty compliance (and) establishing mine action centers.”
Kaye said Sterling has approximately 150 employees, and the new company will have about 3,500 employees.
After a round of layoffs earlier this year, EODT said it had 250 American employees and 3,000 foreign nationals.
Kaye said Sterling International’s program manager for conventional weapons destruction will remain in that position with the new company.
Sterling’s website does not identify the company’s top executives, and Kaye declined to identify the founder or CEO of the company. “He’s asked not to be named,” Kaye said, adding that the individual would stay on as an executive adviser.
The release said the combined companies will continue to serve existing customers, but will also expand into markets including energy exploration and development and judicial and criminal justice support.
The new company will have annual revenues of $150 million.
Story here.
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As Iraq, Afghan wars end, private security firms adapt
Sun, Oct 21 2012
By Peter Apps
On a rooftop terrace blocks from the White House, a collection of former soldiers and intelligence officers, executives and contractors drink to the international private security industry.
The past decade – particularly the U.S.-led wars in Iraq and Afghanistan – provided rich pickings for firms providing private armed guards, drivers and other services that would once have been performed by uniformed soldiers.
But as the conflicts that helped create the modern industry wind down, firms are having to adapt to survive. They must also, industry insiders say, work to banish the controversial image of mercenary “dogs of war” that bedevil many firms, particularly in Iraq.

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Syria: What About Those Chemical Weapons And MANPADS?

Sep 7

Posted by Matt in Iraq, Syria | 2 Comments

QUESTION: We’re seeing more and more reports about opposition fighters getting their hands on anti-aircraft weapons, mostly being seized from the Syrian army. I know this was a big concern of the U.S. in Libya, and that a lot of effort and a lot of money went into finding out where these weapons were going. Is that possible even in Syria, and how concerned is this Administration about the possibility of those weapons getting out there?
MS. NULAND: Well, if what you’re talking about it MANPADS, Cami, you know that around the world we have been very concerned about the proliferation of MANPADS and about their use in – on conflict and combat.
That said, we have a Syrian opposition that is facing some of the most egregious and horrific violence we’ve seen exacted on a civilian population anywhere. We have reports, as you know, over the weekend of summary executions by the Syrian regime. We have reports of aerial strafing of people lined up waiting for bread outside of Aleppo.
So, while it is difficult, it’s not surprising that unfortunately the opposition is fighting back in whatever way it can to try to protect civilians. And this is a direct result of the fact that the Assad regime is not stopping its assault and, in fact, is continuing its assault and using increasingly horrible and brutal methods.
QUESTION: But this will be a big problem if, as you say, the Assad regime is going eventually, and then you have all of these weapons out there, and not knowing who all the various opposition people are, you’ve got all these weapons again.
MS. NULAND: Right. Well, as we’ve said a number of times here, and as the Secretary said in Istanbul, as we look at what we’re calling day-after planning – planning on the U.S. side but also internationally for how we can support the Syrian people after Assad goes and when they’re in that transition phase – one of the key issues we’re looking at is how we might be able to offer support in securing, safeguarding some of the most dangerous weapons from the Assad era. So it would not only be some of these kinds of things, but also chemical weapons, et cetera. That’ll certainly be a very, very big job for them, and we are looking at how we can be ready to help if we’re asked. -State Department Briefing by Victoria Nuland, August 27, 2012

Syria is definitely a troubling problem when it comes to weapons, and losing control of them. This country actually has large stores of chemical weapons, along with a scattering of MANPADS like SA-7′s throughout the country at various bases. As more terrain is gained by the rebels, the chances of these weapon sites being exploited by the rebels and anyone else in the area is high. Losing control of those weapons is not good, and the fear is that they will find their way into other parts of the world and be used in terrorist attacks. Or even used in all out assaults against countries like Israel.

The question is, what will be done about it?  That is the million dollar question.

For one, I believe we will just have to assume that some of this stuff will be taken and smuggled away to wherever. I don’t think we can prevent that unless we have troops and folks on the ground, physically going in there and securing or taking these weapons.  As it stands now, it seems like we are dependent upon the honesty of those rebels in Syria that are involved in the fighting. But any jihadists with them could care less about what the west thinks, and yet the jihadists are there on the ground and actively fighting along side these guys.

If we were to put folks on the ground, what would be more politically feasible–military or contractors? That is a question I have thrown around on Facebook and have received lots of interesting feedback. Some say the military is better equipped and other say that contractors are equally capable and politically more feasible than the military. Who knows, and both resources could do the job. Hell, a combination of both would be even better. Someone to take the sites in the initial phases (military) and someone to hold the site after things have cooled down (contractors).

With any intervention we do, it will certainly require a partnership with the locals. I suggest using the CMC projects in Iraq as a possible model of operation for any contractor based solution. In Iraq, the Coalitions Munition Clearance program was a contract completely run by civilians and Army Corps of Engineers to secure old Iraqi Ammo Supply Points that were damaged in the war, and ‘clear’ or destroy those weapons on site. The program was highly successful and helped to remove tons of weapons from the battlefield that could have otherwise been used by the insurgents.

But a program like this is highly dependent on areas that are not contested in war zones. In other words, a project needs to be set up in territory that has been taken from the Syrian government. If not, that contracted security force could end up doing some heavy duty fighting or defending and be outgunned. But in zones being loosely held by local forces, negotiations can be made and the security of that site can become a priority and even a cash cow for the locals. I think the locals would also appreciate someone willing to go in there and destroy that nasty stuff.

What can be done is to ready private forces to move in as soon as territory has been gained, or to move in as soon as there has been a complete collapse of the government. Because then at that point, arrangements can be done with local leaders, tribes, etc.–much like how the CMC projects worked. The project can also employ local Syrians in doing some of the non-technical work. The guard force can be a combination of Syrians and expats. Like I said before, the CMC projects are a great model of operation for something like this.

Besides, companies are already being tasked with chemical munitions management and destruction. In the US, Tetra Tech just won a 489 million dollar CMA contract to do just that. Hell, they are even going to Vietnam to clean up agent orange sites. Here is a  quote:

Tetra Tech, Inc. recently announced that it has secured an indefinite delivery/indefinite quantity contract worth $489 million from the U.S. Army Chemical Materials Agency (CMA) and is a part of Integration Support V (PAIS V) contract.

As per the contract, the company will be providing program management and technical support to the CMA and the Assembled Chemical Weapons Alternatives program at facilities across the U.S for the next five years.

Tetra Tech will also support a variety of program management, integration and technical services support for aiding efficient destruction of chemical warfare and related material. This support comprises environmental studies, design, monitoring, operations and maintenance, quality assurance, safety and logistics support services.

Simultaneously, the PAIS V contract activities enable the U.S. Army to fulfill the international chemical weapons conventions and move toward disintegration of chemical agent disposal facilities and stockpile storage areas.

Apart from this, Tech will also be helping CMA in managing its non-stockpile chemical material program and chemical stockpile emergency preparedness program.

In addition, Tetra Tech recently received a contract for the excavation and construction activities related to the environmental decontamination of Vietnam’s Da Nang Airport, affected by dioxin pollution. This contamination was the result of the use of chemical herbicides and defoliant during the Vietnam War.

Tetra Tech was also one of the companies used in Iraq for the CMC projects. So the private side of this solution is there and it is capable.

One final note is about these MANPADS in Syria. It is very difficult to get a fix on who has them or where they are at. There are a few folks out there that are putting together a picture for public consumption. Especially with all of these videos and social media related bits of news. CJ Chivers is one of those guys doing an awesome job, and he goes into how to properly view and pick apart these videos. Here is another blogger that is tracking the locations of Syrian MANPADS that have been identified in news stories.

As this develops, we will see the direction it takes. The west is definitely interested in securing this stuff, and the real question will be ‘how’. Perhaps we will see a repeat of how we did things in Libya, or this might require a different direction…Who knows? I do know that the clock is ticking and the rebellion is not waiting for anyone. -Matt

 

Destroying munitions in Iraq.

 

Worries intensify over Syrian chemical weapons
By Joby Warrick
September 6, 2012
Western spy agencies suspect Syria’s government has several hundred tons of chemical weapons and precursor components scattered among as many as 20 sites throughout the country, heightening anxieties about the ability to secure the arsenals in the event of a complete breakdown of authority in the war-torn nation, U.S. and Middle Eastern officials say.
Officials are monitoring the storage sites, but they expressed growing fear that they have not identified every location and that some of the deadly weapons could be stolen or used by Syrian troops against civilians.
“We think we know everything, but we felt the same way about Libya,” said a former American intelligence official who was briefed on U.S. preparations for both conflicts. “We had been on the ground in Libya, yet there were big surprises, both in terms of quantities and locations.” The former official was one of several people who spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss classified information.

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