Archive for category Russia
At the moment, about half those supplies come through Pakistan. The Pakistanis only closed, for about a day, one of the two main routes. About 30 percent of the supplies come in via Central Asia railroads, and another comes from the Black Sea, via rail to the Afghan border. The remaining 20 percent comes in by air. But some of that may be shifted to the Central Asian route, which is much safer (from bandits, bad roads and the Taliban) than the Pakistan routes.
The U.S. and NATO supplies coming in via railroad from Western Europe, go through Ukraine, Belarus, Russia, Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan, to Afghanistan. This approach costs $400 a ton to get supplies into Afghanistan, versus three times that to truck it in from Pakistani ports, or $14,000 a ton to fly stuff in. This Central Asian route has been under negotiation since 2003, but Russia kept agreeing to it, and then withdrawing cooperation. What has finally compelled Russia to cooperate in the last year is the growing problems they are having with heroin and opium coming out of Afghanistan into, and through, Russia.-From Strategy Page
Boy, this latest deal with Pakistan shutting down the border after the cross border accident is any indicator as to how unstable the logistics route is, then news like this should be good for the US and NATO. Although any deals they make with Russia will have to piss off Georgia, whom has contributed forces to the war effort. It is also risky to now make Russia a partner with all of this, because they could play games with the rail system. I guess they would be the best route to go with out of the two bad options available.
The other point is that Russia is very smart when it comes to leverage and negotiations. The more we have issues on the Pakistan border with crucial logistics, the more the coalition is up against the wall to use a different route–and they don’t have many options. Especially when cost is increasingly becoming an issue. So at this point, Russia is going to negotiate all types of sweet deals in regards to NATO and how it impacts Russia. I just hope that whatever deals we strike up, that the US and NATO don’t get screwed in the long run. Russia knows it has the cards.
On the flip side, I just posted a deal on Russia thinking about using private security firms for their companies overseas. I could see them utilizing these types of paramilitary forces for work in Afghanistan, if in fact the US and NATO could convince them to participate. Russian troops in Afghanistan would be too much to ask I think. You never know though and I never cease to be amazed with this stuff.
I also mention private industry as a better option because of all of the Mi-17s that Afghanistan is buying up. Russia would be a good choice for instructors and maintenance types in these contracts to ensure that Afghanistan gets a good value. Plus, the Russians wrote the book on using the Mi-17 in Afghanistan during their war there and these Mi-17s are familiar to the Afghans. Most of all, there is the maintenance of these aircraft post war. Poor countries with little in the means of parts or repair capability, will really appreciate the durability, cost and simplicity of this aircraft when everyone is gone and packed up.
Afghanistan will also appreciate all of these railroads coming into their country, because that will make it significantly cheaper for investors to do business there. The US and NATO will enjoy a cost savings as well, just as long as Russia is happy, and the Taliban can be put in check in the north. We will see how it goes. -Matt
Afghanistan’s First New Railroad On Track
Russia, NATO Plan Joint Afghan War Initiative
Afghanistan’s First New Railroad On Track
October 14, 2010
by Charles Recknagel
From the northern Afghan city of Mazar-e Sharif to the Uzbek border, the land runs flat with barely a hillock to block the way.
It is perfect terrain for building a railway. So, since Afghanistan inaugurated construction of its northern rail line in May, progress has been fast.
Now, the Uzbek company contracted to lay the track has completed almost all of the 75-kilometer line. According to the schedule, the construction should be finished by the end of this year.
If so, Afghanistan will get its first railroad in more than 100 years. That is when a former monarch, Amir Abdurrahman, banned rail lines as potential invasion routes.
Officials say the railroad will speed up freight deliveries across the Uzbek border dramatically.
Amid the global economic crisis, the security guard industry remains a haven for those Russians not afraid of danger or boredom.
The Russian private security business has seen a number of cuts and layoffs in the last year. However, the workforce still accounts for up to 750,000 guards, making it one of the biggest in the country.
Aleksandr Mikhin, a spokesperson for a Moscow-based Alligator Security Company, which has been in business for 16 years, says companies have started reconsidering their contracts with security firms, trying to optimize their spending.
But security is usually the last thing businesses are ready to sacrifice. And in an economy such as this, increased concern about crime, vandalism and terrorism is forecast to raise the need for security.
Adil Mukashev, an independent expert on terrorism issues based in Almaty, Kazakhstan, said the security firms will likely employ ex-military from Russia’s mainly Muslim North Caucasus region, where an Islamist insurgency is raging.
“This will kill two birds with one stone — give men work in a region with high unemployment and drive them away from radical Islam,” Mukashev told Reuters.
An interesting little side fact is that I get a lot of readers from Russia checking out the blog. With over 750,000 guards in Russia, now I know why! lol But what is really interesting is the idea of exporting this pool of guards to protect Russian assets abroad. This is the territory I like to explore.
The article only mentioned oil and mineral assets abroad, but there are other areas that would be of Russia’s best interest to take part in. Specifically, if they plan on allowing NATO to use their railways to transport weapons and whatnot. This will make railways a bigger target for terrorists, and increased traffic will increase exposure. Especially in Northern Afghanistan, because the Taliban and company will do all they can to attack that railway or to steal from it. For investors to trust these lines, there must be adequate security for them.
Private security firms also allow Russia to participate in Afghanistan, and yet not appear to be involved militarily with it’s own troops. So if they want to help NATO and get some sweet deals in return (dealing with Georgia, etc.), as well as not get sucked in militarily into Afghanistan, they could easily assist via private military firms. Trainers for all types of things, like police or military, or even the pilots of all these Mi-17′s that Afghanistan is buying, could all be drawn from private firms.
Add to that the legions of Afghan war veterans that Russia has who could be called upon for these contracts. That’s if Russian parliament says it’s cool? The money is what will be doing the talking here, as well as the security situation and unemployment realities of that country. All I know is NATO seems to be pretty interested in including Russia into the Afghan game.
There is also the maritime security industry, and I am sure Russia would be eyeing ways to protect their shipping assets privately as well. These companies could also offer their services elsewhere, if legally allowed to do so by Russia.
I am also interested in the other quote up top about using this as a means of employing out of work folks and keeping them away from Jihad? Would sending them to Iraq to defend a company like LUKOIL be a good thing or a bad thing for a muslim from the Northern Caucasus? -Matt
Russia eyes security firms to defend assets abroad
Russia to continue supplying Afghan army and police
Russia eyes security firms to defend assets abroad
October 28, 2010
* Russia wants private security for assets in conflict zones
* Ex-military personnel could be from volatile N. Caucasus
By Amie Ferris-Rotman
Russia is preparing legislation to set up private security firms using ex-soldiers and police to protect its oil, gas and mineral holdings in conflict zones abroad, a lawmaker and ex-KGB officer said in an interview.
Up to 1,000 security personnel would operate along the lines of U.S. and British private security firms, said Gennady Gudkov, a deputy in Russia’s lower house of parliament, known as the Duma.
“It will be expensive but unfortunately it is very necessary,” said Gudkov, an influential member of the pro-Kremlin Fair Russia party and a former KGB officer who sits on parliament’s safety committee.
“As long as Russian firms are operating abroad, this is in the interest of the state,” he told Reuters, referring to Russia’s need to protect strategically important companies.
SU-27s are an important part of Russian and Chinese air power but Mr ten Cate insists that ECA is not aiming to imitate either. “Russian fighter jets have been sold around the world so they are widely used,” he says. “We’re a generic enemy.”
A recruitment drive is under way for up to 45 qualified fighter pilots, as well as maintenance technicians. An advertisement was placed in an aviation trade publication last month offering pilots a salary of €160,000 a year – more than all but the most senior commercial airline pilots.
*****
Pretty cool, and check out the salary the pilots of these things will get? But what is really interesting is that this company will have a very unique capability. By constantly wargaming and learning the limitations and capabilities of these aircraft, they will be able to learn the best way to use them. That information will definitely be used in future planning and training, along with the incredible war gaming these folks will be able to offer.
The other interesting angle is that the only articles that I have found about this, is the FT ones I posted below, and a Russian Times article that bashed the hell out of the idea. Of course they called this company a ‘private army’ and mercenary and whatever ‘evil’ western name they could use to fire up any criticism of the deal. A little miffed maybe? lol No commentary from China yet.
Interesting move, and the jobs it will produce locally will be great for Iceland. It will also help them strategically, by setting up a school that will help their air force, and friendly air forces throughout the world who wish to gain a jet fighting capability for defeating Chinese and Russian aircraft. Not a bad gig for ECA Program Ltd. -Matt
—————————————————————–
ECA has agreed to buy up to 33 Sukhoi Su-27 fighters.
Cold war base to be private ‘Top Gun’ school
By Andrew Ward in Stockholm
August 30 2010
Iceland’s Keflavik airbase, a bulwark of western security during the cold war, would be home to two squadrons of Russian-made fighter jets under plans being considered by Reykjavik.
The Icelandic government is in talks about renting the airbase to a private company that says it is buying up to €1.2bn ($1.5bn) of Sukhoi warplanes from Belarus for use as a mock enemy in military training exercises.
ECA Program says it has already signed up five air forces keen to test their pilots and jets against an aircraft most commonly flown by the Russian and Chinese militaries.
Company Spotlight: Oryol
Oct 11
This is a continuation of the video I posted earlier about this company. This kind of reminds of another article I wrote in regards to PMC versus PMC. Not in the way of Blackwater fighting Oryol on the battlefield, but in the way of competing with them on the battlefield of market share. That the German Landsknecht defeated the Swiss Guard back during the Italian wars, by copying the Swiss (all the way down to the uniforms), being cheaper than the Swiss (thus gaining more experience with more jobs), and finding an innovation that gave them an edge over the Swiss (firearms).
In this case, this company wants to take market share in Iraq by doing a better job of the task than the top British and American companies. Competition is what drives innovation, and these guys sound hungry. Although I will have to say that they will have to work very hard to find the one or two innovations that will make them competitive in this market. They are dealing with some very advanced and successful companies in this industry, and Oryol will definitely have to find a niche to get a seat at the table. -Matt
—————————————————————–
Former Russian soldiers ready to take on Blackwater in Iraq
06 October, 2009, 19:50
A group of former Russian soldiers is involved in an intense military training program in preparation for Iraq. They believe they can compete with their British and American counterparts by adopting a unique approach.
The training of the Oryol anti-terror centre may seem like an intense action scene from a Hollywood blockbuster movie, but in fact it is to prepare Russian men to work in Iraq…
“Before we send people there, we put them through some serious training. This includes psychological training and an educational program,” says Sergey Epishkin, head of Oryol anti-terror training centre. “In our classes, we even speak the way they speak in this particular region. If you can’t master local slang, you can run into a serious trouble sometimes.”
And to avoid such trouble is the chief responsibility of this group. These men are from the anti-terror group Oryol and, much like their infamous, American counterpart “Blackwater”, they provide private security for Russian engineers and businessmen operating inside Iraq.
This latest conflict in Israel has highlighted an interesting weapon. Enter the 122 mm Grad Missile, or the 9K132 Grad-P rocket. Why is this different from the Kassam rockets and other homemade stuff? The range and lethality. It can go 20 plus kilometers and it is a factory made rocket. That means more Israeli deaths, and someone outside of the country is getting these things in. It could be Hezbollah, Syria, Iran (their Arash rocket-see article below), Egypt, Russia… Who knows? But they have them, and they are using them. The most recent attacks were Grad rockets, and these longer range rockets were probably the tipping point(as well as just launching a massive amount of homemade missiles) for the recent activity. Just check out how many attacks have increased over the years.-Matt
Edit: According to news sources, these are Chinese made Grad rockets.
——————————————————————
9K132 “Grad-P”(Wikipedia)
Single-round man-portable launcher, which can be reloaded and used again. The rocket itself is a 122mm fin-stabilized rocket, armed with any of the warheads used on BM-21 rockets. The weapon is not often used by the Russian military, but is popular with paramilitary and guerrilla force.
Egypt(Wikipedia)
The Egyptians domestically manufacture the rockets “Sakr-36″ and “Sakr-18″ with a respective range of 36 and 18 km. Rather than a standard HE-Frag round, the Egyptian military prefers a 23 kilogram cluster munition, which can be extremely effective against lightly armored equipment and troop concentrations. Both rockets, as well as the original Soviet models of course, are fired by locally manufactured rocket launchers like the RL-21 (copy of BM-11) and RC-21 (copy of BM-21, similar to the Hadid HM20). The Helwan Machine Tools Company also produces portable systems with one, three, four and eight launch tubes.
——————————————————————
The discovery of BM-21 components indicates that the Palestinians can now buy, or build, more accurate, and longer ranged, rockets. The 150 pound, 122mm Russian designed BM-21 rocket is nine feet long and has a range of 20 kilometers and a 45 pound warhead. Developed in the late 1930s, the 122mm rocket is normally fired in large numbers from many launchers at spread-out targets.That’s because the rockets are unguided. Aim lots of them at a target and you’ll hit something. Aim a few of them at something, and you usually won’t, But the rockets are made by many countries, are relatively easy to get, and favored by terrorists for attacks that terrorize, rather than actually do any damage.
I think this is pretty significant. We touched on this earlier here on Feral Jundi and the fallout of the recent events in Georgia will definitely impact war efforts elsewhere. I could see Russia making things very difficult for the logistics in Afghanistan, and it would not be that hard to do at all. They could either support the Taliban by proxy, or do what they are doing now and force supply trains to go through more dangerous places by axing current agreements.
With that said, I believe we will see this war zone evolve into what Iraq was a couple years ago. And that is IEDs and EFPs galore with constant attacks on supply trains coming into and out of Afghanistan. It is the smartest thing the enemy could do at this point, and I think we are starting to witness the beginning of this. The ISAF and NATO deaths keep going up, and the Taliban continue to increase their attacks and lethality. We’ll see how it goes and I will be praying to the gods of convoy protection for the guys that have to run those roads. -Head Jundi
——————————————————————
Russian official warns NATO transit to Afghanistan at risk
by Staff Writers
London (AFP) Aug 26, 2008
NATO should not be able to use Russian routes to transit supplies and equipment to Afghanistan because Russia has suspended military co-operation with the Western alliance, the country’s ambassador to Kabul argued in an interview published Tuesday.
Speaking to The Times from the Afghan capital, Zamir Kabulov said increased tensions between Russia and West over the former’s recent assault on Georgia could lead Moscow to review other such agreements.
Asked by the newspaper if Russia’s suspension of military co-operation with NATO invalidated an April agreement on the transit of supplies to Afghanistan, Kabulov said: “Of course. Why not? If there is a suspension of military cooperation, this is military cooperation.”
“No one with common sense can expect to co-operate with Russia in one part of the world while acting against it in another,” he added.
He insisted, however, that Russia was not seeking to derail NATO efforts in Afghanistan, telling The Times: “It’s not in Russia’s interests for NATO to be defeated and leave behind all these problems.”
“We’d prefer NATO to complete its job and then leave this unnatural geography.
“But at the same time, we’ll be the last ones to moan about NATO’s departure.”
NATO leads the 53,000-strong International Security Assistance Force (ISAF), which is tasked with spreading the influence of Kabul’s weak central government across the country.
But five years after taking charge, ISAF is struggling to defeat a tenacious Taliban-led insurgency, in part commanded from across the porous mountain border with Pakistan.
Oh my, this gets more interesting every day. Of course Georgia and the West does not recognize this latest move. It sounds like Cheney is inbound to Georgia, along with a few warships. And I guess the Russians are implying that they will ‘militarily’ deal with the missiles in Poland? Wow, this thing is really ramping up, and we will see who backs down first. -Head Jundi
——————————————————————
Russia recognises Georgian rebels
Russian president speaks to BBC
President Dmitry Medvedev has declared that Russia formally recognises the independence of the breakaway Georgian regions of South Ossetia and Abkhazia.
Mr Medvedev told the BBC Russia had tried to preserve Georgian unity for 17 years, but that the situation had changed after this month’s violence.
He said Moscow now felt obliged to recognise South Ossetia and Abkhazia as other countries had done with Kosovo.
Georgia said Russia was seeking to “change Europe’s borders by force”.
In a televised address on Monday evening, President Mikhail Saakashvili said the declaration was completely illegal and vowed to begin a “peaceful struggle” to restore Georgia’s territorial integrity.
