I think this is pretty significant.  We touched on this earlier here on Feral Jundi and the fallout of the recent events in Georgia will definitely impact war efforts elsewhere.  I could see Russia making things very difficult for the logistics in Afghanistan, and it would not be that hard to do at all.  They could either support the Taliban by proxy, or do what they are doing now and force supply trains to go through more dangerous places by axing current agreements.    

     With that said, I believe we will see this war zone evolve into what Iraq was a couple years ago.  And that is IEDs and EFPs galore with constant attacks on supply trains coming into and out of Afghanistan.  It is the smartest thing the enemy could do at this point, and I think we are starting to witness the beginning of this.  The ISAF and NATO deaths keep going up, and the Taliban continue to increase their attacks and lethality.   We’ll see how it goes and I will be praying to the gods of convoy protection for the guys that have to run those roads.  -Head Jundi   

—————————————————————— 

Russian official warns NATO transit to Afghanistan at risk

by Staff Writers

London (AFP) Aug 26, 2008

NATO should not be able to use Russian routes to transit supplies and equipment to Afghanistan because Russia has suspended military co-operation with the Western alliance, the country’s ambassador to Kabul argued in an interview published Tuesday.

Speaking to The Times from the Afghan capital, Zamir Kabulov said increased tensions between Russia and West over the former’s recent assault on Georgia could lead Moscow to review other such agreements.

Asked by the newspaper if Russia’s suspension of military co-operation with NATO invalidated an April agreement on the transit of supplies to Afghanistan, Kabulov said: “Of course. Why not? If there is a suspension of military cooperation, this is military cooperation.”

“No one with common sense can expect to co-operate with Russia in one part of the world while acting against it in another,” he added.

He insisted, however, that Russia was not seeking to derail NATO efforts in Afghanistan, telling The Times: “It’s not in Russia’s interests for NATO to be defeated and leave behind all these problems.”

“We’d prefer NATO to complete its job and then leave this unnatural geography.

“But at the same time, we’ll be the last ones to moan about NATO’s departure.”

NATO leads the 53,000-strong International Security Assistance Force (ISAF), which is tasked with spreading the influence of Kabul’s weak central government across the country.

But five years after taking charge, ISAF is struggling to defeat a tenacious Taliban-led insurgency, in part commanded from across the porous mountain border with Pakistan.

Link Here

     Oh my, this gets more interesting every day. Of course Georgia and the West does not recognize this latest move.  It sounds like Cheney is inbound to Georgia, along with a few warships.  And I guess the Russians are implying that they will ‘militarily’ deal with the missiles in Poland?  Wow, this thing is really ramping up, and we will see who backs down first.  -Head Jundi 

 ——————————————————————

 Russia recognises Georgian rebels

Russian president speaks to BBC

President Dmitry Medvedev has declared that Russia formally recognises the independence of the breakaway Georgian regions of South Ossetia and Abkhazia.

Mr Medvedev told the BBC Russia had tried to preserve Georgian unity for 17 years, but that the situation had changed after this month’s violence.

He said Moscow now felt obliged to recognise South Ossetia and Abkhazia as other countries had done with Kosovo.

Georgia said Russia was seeking to “change Europe’s borders by force”.

In a televised address on Monday evening, President Mikhail Saakashvili said the declaration was completely illegal and vowed to begin a “peaceful struggle” to restore Georgia’s territorial integrity.

     Hey, check this out(thanks to Scott and Doug for the heads up).  The Russians are not leaving, they are taking prisoners, and they are making a mockery of the ceasefire.  But what was interesting with this article, was another cameo of the VSS Sniper Rifle in the photo that accompanied this article.  This weapon is the perfect tool for operating during this so-called ‘ceasefire’.  

     And this latest move was to get some prisoner currency.  Supposedly the Georgians captured some Russians during this war, and both countries have agreed to an exchange.  It has been reported that the trade was 15 Georgians for 5 Russians.

     Also, the US vehicles were at the port and were in the process of being shipped out when the war started. -Head Jundi 

Russian Soldier armed with VSS Sniper Rifle, with prisoners. 

Russian soldiers take prisoners in Georgia port 

By DMITRY LOVETSKY and CHRISTOPHER TORCHIA – 3 hours ago

RUISI, Georgia (AP) — Russian soldiers took 20 Georgian troops prisoner at a key port in western Georgia on Tuesday and commandeered American Humvees awaiting shipment back to the United States after taking part in earlier U.S.-Georgian military exercises.

   Hey guys and gals, I have a real treat for FJ readers in regards to the latest developments going on in Georgia.  We have a guest author who lives in Georgia, but is currently working in Iraq, who has written a gem of an article.  Chris is his name, and he has graciously allowed me to post his ideas and thoughts on the current events in Georgia.    

     Chris is currently working in Iraq, as I have stated, and has had to deal with two wars–one for work and one impacting his home.  His family was in Georgia during the beginning of the war and luckily they were able to get out of Georgia as events unfolded.  Very scary stuff and by the grace of god, they made it out safely.  It is extremely unfortunate that they had to leave their home like that.  

     For the backdrop on this article, Chris was responding to a question about his views on the situation there in Georgia in a forum called The Black Flag Cafe.  Like most forums that cover current affairs and world events, the BFC has been very active with discussion about the war in Georgia.  

     I have found the BFC to be an excellent source of ideas and discourse, when trying to analyze and understand current events that are happening quickly.  The BFC is also owned and moderated by the author Robert Young Pelton.

     Thanks to Chris for such a well thought out article and I wish the best for him and his family during this most unfortunate of events. -Head Jundi

——————————————————————

From a discussion on the Black Flag Cafe in regards to the current war in Georgia…

By Chris

Here is a shot at enlightening all of you about some of the past events that have led us to where we are today.

Zviad Gamsakhurdia is largely blamed for the conflict in S. Osettia. This is in part because he opposed the S. Osettian movement (around 1989 I think) to become part of N. Osettia, and in part because many of his supporters used the slogan “Georgia for the Georgians”. I could be wrong, but I do not believe that this was ever his slogan.

During Zviad Gamsakhurdia’s presidency fighting again broke out in S. Ossetia (1991-1992). People on both sides (Georgians and Ossetians) of the conflict were displaced. Russians move in and stop the fighting, and install themselves as peace keepers.

     And now things get interesting.  The move I see with this, is to hold Russia to it’s word of a ceasefire.  But the bigger message is that we are going in, and if Russia has bigger war plans, then it better not conflict with our plans of providing aid.  This could be risky, because the Russians could very well play the game of swinging their arms wildly and saying “I am not stopping, I am not stopping” while they walk towards us.  And for that matter, I do hope that there are a few Combat Air Controllers with this small contingent of troops that are going in.  And with all air on deck….  

     The other thing about this is that our administration is making their move.  It’s risky, but they have to do something to save some face.  Russia seems to have no intention of honoring a ceasefire and the whole world is watching, including the other break away republics in the region.  Stay tuned to see how this plays out. -Head Jundi 

————————————————————- 

Bush sends US troops to Georgia

The US is sending troops to embattled Georgia in the form of a humanitarian aid exercise, President George Bush said.

Mr Bush said military planes would deliver supplies in a move which would put American forces in the heart of the region.

The president said he was concerned that Russia might be violating the ceasefire in Georgia and he expected all Russian forces to withdraw.

     Doug pointed this out to me, and I thought it was interesting.  We found at least three seperate photos from Reuters of Russians carrying this weapon system into Georgia.  It has a range of 400 meters as well.  

     How they deploy these things over there, I don’t know.  And I have no clue if these are Spetsnaz or OSNAZ or whatever.  I just thought it was interesting to get a glimpse at what these guys are bringing to the fight.  

     I guess the only clue would be how they were used in Chechnya.  So I will hunt around for some articles and see what I can come up with. -Head Jundi 

Edit:  I found an outstanding article about Russian Snipers and what the learned in Chechnya and Afghanistan.  The 9×39mm round is the popular round now, and the thing can penetrate like 8mm of armor.  

     But it sounds like if these guys were actual snipers, their faces would have been covered.  If anything, these guys are more like designated marksmen of their unit.  I was watching this youtube video and this weapon is very quiet.  But here is the article about Russian Snipers. 

     Also, I think a weapon like this could cause a lot of havoc over there.  A silenced weapon (very quiet and not just suppressed) could allow Russia to continue operations during the ceasefire.  And political and military leaders could be the targets.  It is hard to tell though, because it looks like journalists are having a hard time getting in there.  They are also getting shot at by Russians.  And killing and intimidating journalists with a VSS could also be a tactic in Putin’s grand plan there.  

From Wikipedia

VSS Vintorez

Type  Sniper rifle

Place of origin  Flag of Russia Russia

Service history      Used by Spetsnaz, OSNAZ

Production history

Designer  Pyotr Serdyukov

Manufacturer  Tula Arms Plant

Specifications  Weight  2.6 kg

Length  894 mm

Barrel length  200 mm

Cartridge  9×39mm

Action  Gas-operated, rotating bolt

Rate of fire  700 rounds/min

Muzzle velocity  290 m/s

Effective range  400 m

Feed system  10 or 20-round detachable box magazine

Sights  Telescopic sight and Iron sights

The VSS (Russian: Vintovka Snayperskaya Spetsialnaya), “Special Sniper Rifle”, also named Vintorez (Thread Cutter), is a suppressed sniper rifle manufactured by Tula Arms Plant. It is in use by various military and otherwise militant organizations, especially those of former Soviet states.

The VSS Vintorez was designed by TsNIITochMash as a suppressed, flashless sniper rifle. It uses a heavy subsonic 9×39mm cartridge in combination with its integral sound suppressor. The heavy bullet is very effective at penetrating body armor even with its subsonic speed. Its effective range is 400 meters.[1] The VSS is normally used in semi-automatic, but it is capable of automatic fire.

Since the VSS is meant for use in discreet operations, it can be broken down into three parts to be carried in a special 450 x 370 x 140 mm (17.7 x 14.5 x 5.5 inch) briefcase. The briefcase also has space for a PSO-1 scope, a NSPU-3 night vision device, and two magazines.

Russian Troops with the VSS Sniper Rifle in Georgia Below 

     So with the ongoing war in Georgia, it is important to figure out how all of this impacts the world and what are the prime motivations of Russia.  It is clear to me now that Russia had no intention of sticking with just protecting rebels in Georgia.  I think the overall motivation was to take control of Georgia and the pipelines running through it and to keep Georgia out of NATO.  And I think Russia has done that.  I do not see NATO or the US going in to fight off Russia and stopping their plans of controlling Georgia either.

     But back to the impact of all of this.  So far the oil markets have not reacted too severely.  The BTC pipeline pumps about a million barrels a day to the west and so far the only damage to the pipeline has been in Turkey by the PKK(is there a connection?). But in Georgia, I think Russia has no intention of damaging this cash cow that they are trying to seize.  So with this said, I believe if that this conflict becomes protracted, then you will see a constant attack on this pipeline by Georgian forces.  The idea being that if the oil means so much to Russia, then that is how you hurt Russia.  

     The other impact of this is that if there is instability with the Caspian Sea related oil supplies, then other supply sources will become more important to the West.  Most importantly, who will Europe turn to for oil in the future?  Will they deal with Russia, who would have a control on price and supply coming from this region, or will Europe look elsewhere?  I almost think Europe has to deal with Russia more than ever, until infrastructure and other oil deals and sources are found and secured. Like the articles talk about below, the west was depending on this pipeline as a way to bypass dealing with Russia.  And given the fact that Europe is already hurting bad with fuel costs, and the coming winter heating costs, this could be bad for them.  

     And with the other break away republics looking on, I think they are extremely nervous that they will be next in the coming years.  Which leads you to think, when will NATO and the west eventually have to step in?  Or will we? What is the message that the West is sending to these republics, by doing nothing?  We supported their democracies and breaking away from mother Russia, but now, what faith would they have in us when we stand by and do nothing while Russia violently takes over Georgia? And do we want to risk an all out war with Russia over such a thing?  

     To me, it always boils down to oil, and any threats to that oil supply will dictate our actions.  That is the reality.  With these countries that have oil or have a pipeline, we will always do what we can to protect them and insure that they do business with us and keep that flow going.  I look at oil, as the life blood of the world, and it is absolutely essential to secure supplies for our thriving economies.  There is no alternative right now, that will even come close to replacing oil.  Biodiesel, ethanol, all of it will not be able to replace oil in the time frame that we need it too.  Until some incredible advancements in science is able to turn water into oil or something, we are stuck playing the Great Energy Game.  Just my thoughts on the matter, and I think Russia is thinking the same way too.

   And with Russia controlling a larger percent of that oil, now that they have control of Georgia, then that gives them more power at the negotiating tables of the world.  To me, that is what is really at stake.  And Russia wants to make a lot of money and they want more power and influence.  So with that said, the economic landscape has just changed with Russia’s latest move and only time will tell how Russia wields their increased influence in the region.  -Head Jundi 

Photo from the movie “There Will Be Blood” 

Georgia: Russians close off strategic Georgian port

Deal to transform Black Sea port of Poti could lie in ruins as Russians seal off access

By Christopher Hope

Last Updated: 6:21PM BST 11 Aug 2008

Just five months ago, Georgia’s President Mikhail Saakashvili was touting a $70million deal which he hoped would transform the Black Sea port of Poti, creating 20,000 jobs over the next five years.

Under the deal Arab investors were set to plough $200million into developing a new port alongside the existing commercial port, trebling Poti’s capacity to 25 million tonnes of cargo a year.

     Here come the Cossacks!  In this article, they talked about how these volunteer troops are getting issued a uniform and hopping on a bus to go to the war.  That they would be issued a weapon when they got there.  LOL

     Typical of the Russians to pull this latest move.  They bring out the Cossacks to stir up nationalism for all of these types of conflicts.  Something tells me that the US/ Israeli trained Georgian troops with combat experience in Iraq, will decimate these guys.  Hell, I wouldn’t be surprised if we start to see the use of IEDs and EFPs big time in Georgia, as this thing drags on.

     It is also interesting to note the history of the region.  Most in Eastern Europe remember events that happened hundreds of years ago, as if it happened yesterday. Putin has also been really sucking up to these groups to stir up that old Russian feeling again, so I thought that this was an interesting article about the Cossacks and this current conflict. 

     The way Russia is dealing with the town of Gori and the capital Tskhinvali , is telling as well.  They are using the same tactics they used in Chechnya, in which they just bomb the crap out of everything.

     On a side note, it is rumored that Georgia has downed 10 Russian jets and 30 tanks.  The casualty figures are supposedly at 1600 now. -Head Jundi  

—————————————————————————————————–

Armed Cossacks pour in to fight Georgians

Neighbours mobilise in anger at Tblisi’s attack on enclave 

Tom Parfitt in Vladikavkaz, North Ossetia

The Guardian,

Saturday August 9 2008

Hundreds, possibly thousands, of volunteer fighters from Russia were mobilising to enter the war in Georgia’s breakaway republic of South Ossetia last night.

Units of armed Cossacks from across the North Caucasus region which borders Georgia were poised to join the battle for the separatists’ capital, Tskhinvali.

In North Ossetia, the region of Russia which shares cultural links and a border with South Ossetia, lists of men willing to fight against Georgian forces were drawn up. Vitaly Khubayev, 35, from the capital, Vladikavkaz, told the Guardian: “There are already two busloads of fighters leaving for Tskhinvali every day. They give you a uniform on the way and you get issued with weapons once you arrive. If I didn’t have three children I’d have gone.”

     So I guess you are probably wondering, what the hell is going on in Eastern Europe?  Are we seeing another Chechnya unfolding before our eyes?  Who knows, but I guess the latest death toll from this conflict is 1400(unconfirmed) and this could get bloodier.  I know we are trying to diffuse this, but once the the cat is out of the bag, it is kind of hard to stop these things.  The timing is interesting too, with Olympics in China.

      But what really interests me, is the troop movements and how that might impact our efforts in Iraq.  And the private contractors that are currently in Georgia and assisting the training efforts of the Georgian military.  

     I have read on various forums that the contractors have been accounted for, but that is unconfirmed and things are happening fast over there.  So that will be something to look out for.

     The one thing that piqued my interest though, was the idea that Georgia was going to pull out 1000 troops in Iraq.  Georgia has over 2000 troops in Iraq now, and are the third largest contributor of troops in Iraq.  These troops that are being pulled out, will definitely impact operations elsewhere, and we will be doing some interesting troop shuffling to back fill these positions.  And knowing the enemy, they will definitely take advantage. We’ll see how it goes and Georgia will be the country to watch.  

      I also think the energy component of this is interesting, seeing how this would be a threat to the BTC oil pipelineto Europe and the west. -Head Jundi 

ANALYSIS-Georgia takes gamble with move on rebels

Fri Aug 8, 2008 10:48am EDT

By William Schomberg

LONDON, Aug 8 (Reuters) - Georgia’s bid to re-take its rebel region of South Ossetia by force is a gamble by its leader that he can still count on Western support as he tries to thwart Russian efforts to regain influence over the ex-Soviet republic.

Analysts said the escalating conflict risked far-reaching consequences for a region that has become a test of the post-Cold War balance of power as well as a key energy transit point for Europe which needs oil and gas from Asia.

Georgian President Mikheil Saakashvili was welcomed by the West as a fresh, reform-minded leader when he led a revolution in 2003 and was elected the next year, making NATO membership his priority as he tried to escape the orbit of Moscow.

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