”The extremist al Shabaab Islamist group is best placed to take control of Mogadishu, but this is not a foregone conclusion,” said David Shinn, a U.S. expert on the Horn of Africa at George Washington University.

While al Shabaab have spearheaded attacks this year to become the face of the insurgency, they lack popular support, and do not have enough fighters to rule on their own without alliances with Islamist movements, analysts say.

Al Shabaab’s hardline ways — such as strict imposition of sharia law, banning drinking or films, and the beheading of several suspected government collaborators — sit uncomfortably with many among Somalia’s traditionally moderate Muslims.

   Both of these articles point to the same reality.  Islamists will be ruling Somalia.  The question is what kind of Islamists will be ruling Somalia and will they work with the west and put a check on the things we worry about?  Namely harboring terrorists and allowing piracy.  Al Shabaab is way to extremist for Somalis, and once they have taken control and there is no one else to fight, how will the Somalis view their form of Sharia Law? 

   Strategically, I think that is the idea.  Let them take the city, and then diplomatically we support the moderate factions who would be better to negotiate with in the future and better for the people of Somalia.  The support should not be overt though, because anything the west touches, will disgust the local populations.  

     And get the Ethiopians out of there, because those forces are infuriating the local populations and driving support to Al Shabaab.  When the dust settles, we must find a competitor to Al Shabaab who is willing to work with the west and the rest of the world, and who also can win the support of the people.  Good luck with that one though, and that is the challenge.  A good first step towards that goal though is to reshuffle the deck, and watch what happens when Ethiopia leaves, the President resigns and more than likely Al Shabaab takes over.

     -Matt 

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Somalia: Fresh turmoil, uncertainty as president resigns

Date: 29 Dec 2008

NAIROBI, 29 December 2008 (IRIN) - Fresh turmoil and uncertainty loom for the people of Somalia - already ravaged by displacement, conflict, drought and hyper-inflation - after the country’s interim president resigned on 29 December.

Abdullahi Yusuf Ahmed resigned after disagreements with parliament and his prime minister, as well as pressure from the international community.

     Apply at your own risk.  If you do get this gig as a ’shipboard security advisor’, your first bit of advice to the captain of the ship should be to arm the vessel and yourself.  Other than that, if your ship gets attacked and taken because your LRAD less than lethal sound gun or really bad language did not repel the assault, then I will have a lovely story to post on FJ. Good luck, and be smart. -Matt

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Jobs@RONCO

Open International Positions

NEW: Shipboard Security Advisors - OCONUS - Various Locations

RONCO Consulting Corporation is seeking highly motivated prior US Navy or Coast Guard servicemen to embark on a unique employment opportunity. Selected candidates will be responsible for providing anti-piracy security consulting and oversight on cargo vessels transiting Gulf of Aden. Positions will be unarmed; transit time normally 5 to 6 days per mission.

Key Areas of Expertise:

Anti-Terrorism Force Protection (ATFP)

Shipboard experience

We are located in the ajman free zone, uae and have been operation for 5 years. The company was formed to provide coast guard services for the puntland state of somalia. We have been running this service very successfully since then…….  

     This belongs in the funny stuff section for sure. Three gunboats, yet less than 5 employees?  1 million to 2.5 million a year in annual sales?  Oh yeah, this company is doing a stellar job of securing the Somali coast. Just ask the chuckleheads shown in the picture below what they think of Somcan FZC. LOL.  -Matt

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A Local Anti-Pirate Company

THE INDIAN OCEAN NEWSLETTER

20/12/2008 

To put an end to the exploits of Somali pirates, the boss of the firm

Somcan in Puntland, Abidiweli Ali Taar, is asking the UN and European Union

to give him $30 million.

The managing director of the firm Somalian Coast Guard (Somcan), Abdiweli

Ali Taar, travelled to Nairobi last week to take part in an international

conference on fighting piracy that had been organized by the United Nations.

His own objective was simple enough: to button-hole officials from the UN

and European Union to persuade them to allocate $30 million per year to his

company to improve its ways of dealing with Somalian pirates. Taar’s firm is

based in Bosaso in Puntland, the breakaway region in the north east of

Somalia that is home to Somalian pirates.

     Good news and I am glad they moved quickly on this.  And as I write this, 4 new ships were attacked today.  -Matt

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UN gives OK to land, air attacks on Somali pirates

Tue Dec 16, 6:21 pm ET

UNITED NATIONS – On the same day Somali gunmen seized two more ships, the U.N. Security Council voted unanimously Tuesday to authorize nations to conduct land and air attacks on pirate bases on the coast of the Horn of Africa country.

Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice was on hand to push through the resolution, one of President George W. Bush’s last major foreign policy initiatives.

Rice said the resolution will have a significant impact, especially since “pirates are adapting to the naval presence in the Gulf of Aden by traveling further” into sea lanes not guarded by warships sent by the U.S. and other countries.

The council authorized nations to use “all necessary measures that are appropriate in Somalia” to stop anyone using Somali territory to plan or carry out piracy in the nearby waters traversed each year by thousands of cargo ships sailing between Asia and the Suez Canal.

That includes the use of Somali airspace, even though the U.S. appeased Indonesia, a council member, by removing direct mention of it, U.S. officials said.

Somalia Foreign Minister Ali Ahmed Jama, whose government asked for the help, said he was “heartened” by the council action. “These acts of piracy are categorically unacceptable and should be put to an end,” he said.

   Here are some more hints as to the overall strategy for dealing with the piracy off the coast of Somalia.  Not only are we going to aggressively pursue these guys on sea, but go after them on land as well.  And it sounds like we have the blessing from the Somali government to do so, if the UN Security Council approves.  Secretary of Defense Gates mentions a few of his thoughts on the land game as well.  -Head Jundi

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Gates Calls for Action Against Somali Pirates

December 13, 2008 

By Camilla Hall

…….Land pursuit operations would carry a high risk of harming innocent civilians because of the difficulty of identifying those guilty of piracy, U.S. Fifth Fleet spokeswoman Lieutenant Stephanie Murdock said yesterday.

“This has become a very good business and the first thing we need is better intelligence on who’s behind it,” Gates said. More information is needed on the culprits to minimize any collateral damage from land pursuit, Gates said. “With the level of information that we have now we are not in the position to do that kind of land attack,” he said. With “adequate intelligence” only, land attacks may be carried out, he added. 

Gates also advised nations to prepare standard operating procedures against seaborne threats including piracy, terrorism, narcotics trafficking and smuggling. He said taking basic steps like speeding up or raising the ladders of the boats would be a good first move. 

Read the Rest of the Story Here

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Somalia backs U.S. plan to hunt pirates on land, water

12/12/2008

Reuters

MOGADISHU, Somalia — Somalia’s government has welcomed a call by the United States for countries to have U.N. authority to hunt down Somali pirates on land as well as pursue them off its coast.

A surge in piracy this year in the busy Gulf of Aden and Indian Ocean off Somalia has driven up insurance costs, brought the gangs tens of millions of dollars in ransoms and prompted foreign navies to rush to the area to protect shipping.

The U.S. delegation to the United Nations has circulated a draft resolution on piracy for the Security Council to vote on next week. A draft text seen by Reuters says countries with permission from Somalia’s government “may take all necessary measures ashore in Somalia, including in its airspace” to capture those using Somali territory for piracy.

“The government cordially welcomes the United Nations to fight pirates inland and (on) the Indian Ocean,” said Hussein Mohamed Mohamud, spokesman for President Abdullahi Yusuf.

“We’re also willing to give them a hand in case they need our assistance,” he said.

Somalia has seen continuous conflict since 1991 and its weak, Western-backed government is still fighting Islamist insurgents.

The chaos has helped fuel the explosion in piracy: There have been nearly 100 attacks in Somali waters this year, despite the presence of several foreign warships. Gunmen are holding about a dozen ships and nearly 300 crewmembers.

Among the captured vessels are a Saudi supertanker loaded with $100 million of crude oil and a Ukrainian cargo ship carrying about 30 Soviet-era tanks.

There already are several international naval operations off Somalia, including a NATO anti-piracy mission. The European Union agreed Monday to launch anti-piracy naval operations in the area.

The U.N. special envoy to Somalia, Ahmedou Ould-Abdallah, said Thursday that the pirates were “threatening the very freedom and safety of maritime trade routes, affecting not only Somalia and the region, but also a large percentage of world trade.”

Story Here

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U.S. Proposes Going Ashore to Hunt Pirates

December 11, 2008

By NEIL MacFARQUHAR

UNITED NATIONS — In an effort to curb piracy off Somalia’s coast, the United States began circulating a Security Council resolution on Wednesday that would significantly beef up interdiction efforts by permitting foreign forces to attack pirate bases on land.

 How do you pay a pirate’s ransom?

By Robyn Hunter

BBC News

03/12/2008

Pirates in Somalia are making a fortune by hijacking ships and demanding ransoms to set them and their crews free - one official estimates the total this year to be around $150m.

There are conflicting reports about how much they want for the Saudi oil tanker they seized last month, the Sirius Star, and its cargo of two million barrels of oil, but how do you negotiate and deliver a pirate ransom in the 21st Century?

From what can be gleaned - how the negotiations run their course and how the ransoms are paid - what goes on would be worthy of a Hollywood action movie script.

“No matter what process is taken, they always go through a middleman,” advises BBC Somali service analyst Said Musa. “And trust is at the heart of everything.”

   Excellent news.  The anti-piracy effort should be a land and sea based strategy, and I am glad this is the thinking at DoS. -Head Jundi

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Office of the Spokesman for the Department of State

Washington, DC

December 11, 2008

Question Taken at December 11, 2008 Daily Press Briefing

Taken Question: U.S. Efforts at the UN Concerning Somali Piracy

Question:  What is the status of current U.S. efforts at the UN concerning Somali piracy? Have there been any discussions on a land-based effort?

Answer:  The United States recently circulated to Security Council members a draft resolution that would encourage the establishment of improved international cooperation between and among states, expand efforts to build judicial capacity to prosecute and incarcerate pirates, and affirm that those engaged in acts of piracy may be designated under the existing Security Council Somalia sanctions regimes.

The U.S. draft would also provide member states and regional organizations, in cooperation with the Somalia Transitional Federal Government, to extend its piracy interdiction efforts to include potential operations on Somali territory.

We believe that this resolution would mark an important step forward in the international community’s efforts to suppress and prevent acts of piracy off the coast of Somalia.

Released on December 11, 2008

Link to Statement Here

Espada Logistics and Security Group Expands Its Maritime Security Operations to Combat Pirates in the Gulf of Aden

Wednesday December 10, 8:30 am ET

SAN ANTONIO–(BUSINESS WIRE)–Espada Logistics and Security Group (www.espadaservices.com), a privately held company, announced today that it has expanded its base of operation from South America to the Gulf of Aden by providing onsite security and consulting services to the maritime industry.

“Despite the increase in military patrols from NATO, Russia and the Indian Navy, Somali pirates have increased their attacks against the ships that transit this region,” Jim Jorrie, the president of Espada Logistics and Security Group, said.

“This was a natural fit for us as we already had a large roster of ex-Special Forces personnel with anti-piracy and anti-insurgent operations experience,” Jorrie added. “Our desire is avoid a conflict in the first place, but if necessary our highly trained and experienced team members can quickly and successfully defend a customer’s assets from a pirate attack.”

   This is the press release by the company in regards to that incident where the guards abandoned ship off the coast of Somalia after being attacked by pirates.  I am kind of curious, how do you use “sustained non-lethal resistance” against RPG’s and AK 47’s? I also love how the company really promotes the “non-lethal” concept all over the website.  I wonder how many Somali pirates cruise the internet, and read this stuff?  I imagine with all that money they keep getting off of take downs, they have bought not only sat phones and GPS units, but also computers. Hell, Ali is probably reading this stuff on his brand new Mac, while chewing on some Khat right now.

     I will say it. This is crap.  To sell this concept of non-lethal security services, in a very lethal area, is just crap.  It is wrong to sell the shipping companies on the concept, it is pathetic that the shipping companies are buying off on this, it is almost criminal to put your guard’s lives at risk like this, and a contractor that signed on for this kind of job should know better. Not to mention that the client is getting some terrible protective service for the money.   

  My feelings about this is simple, defend the ship and the client with the appropriate force(lethal in this situation), and get out of this business of using less than lethal in really dangerous places.  Obviously the LRAD and water cannon did not work in this situation, and the pirates are wising up.  God help us if they decide to wear ear plugs and a scuba mask on future attacks? -Head Jundi 

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MV BISCAGLIA : PIRATE ATTACK 28 Nov 08

APMSS PRESS RELEASE 2

15:00 UTC 28th Nov 2008

Nick Davis, Director of APMSS, has issued the following statement:

Attributable quote

“APMSS security team embarked upon MV BISCAGLIA came under sustained and heavy attack from pirates earlier this morning. Reports remain confused however we believe that the embarked 3 man APMSS security team (comprising former British military servicemen) were able to mount sustained, non-lethal, resistance, denying the attacker’s access to the ship long enough for the ship’s operating crew to seek safety below decks and to summon assistance from coalition warships.

Reports suggest that the security team were only finally overwhelmed when attackers gained access to the ship and continued to fire upon the embarked security team.

I have spoken with my team leader on the phone and he informs me that the level of violence was unprecedented and forced them reluctantly to leave the vessel after every effort was made to ensure the safety of the ships crew, further whilst in the water the security team were again fired upon. The hijacked vessel with pirates in control then attempted to run them down”

     So far, I like this model of anti-piracy more than anything else that has come up.  I think what BW plans on doing, is just posting up in international waters so it can immediately cover down on clients when they enter the danger zone.  And in the mean time, BW can recce the routes with helicopters and ferry armed guards onto the boats that they are contracted with.  Although to do this safely, BW will have to coordinate with the client’s ships, so they are all within range of the McArthur.  

     And if you read the article below, deterrence and the right to self defense is BW’s ‘right’, according to their spokeswoman.   That says to me that they will have weapons and they will defend self and the client.  But because I am not in the loop, I am only making assumptions. I must say, a Mk 38 would look pretty nice on the bow of the McArthur.  -Head Jundi

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The McArthur can carry helicopters and inflatable boats.   

Blackwater Plans Effort Against Piracy

DECEMBER 3, 2008

By AUGUST COLE

Private security firm Blackwater Worldwide began holding meetings in London on Tuesday with potential clients for a new business venture — protection from pirates.

The Moyock, N.C., firm, which has grown rapidly through State Department security work in Iraq, has been courting shippers and insurance firms about protecting ships in pirate-infested waters. It’s meeting with more than a dozen firms this week and hopes to drum up its first contract.

There have been almost 100 attempts this year to seize ships off East Africa, fewer than half of which were successful, according to the U.S. Navy. On Nov. 30, two skiffs harassed an Oceania Cruises Inc. ship passing through the Gulf of Aden. Eight shots were fired at the cruise liner, which evaded the boats, according to the Miami-based company.