It is important to take a step back sometimes, and get a feel for the world wide situation with this enemy we are fighting.  Afghanistan or Pakistan is not the only game in town, and what I wanted to do below is put up some current significant events that highlight how global this war is.

     A couple of things that came to mind while reading this stuff.  Imagine if both Yemen and Somalia fell to these Al Qaeda backed groups, and these countries became sanctuaries for AQ?  You would have two Islamic extremist states who would control both sides of the Gulf of Aden and turn that sucker into a gauntlet for piracy or whatever.  But I would even go as far as to say that the piracy we are now familiar with, would instead transition into something else.  We would see these pirates turn into ‘jihadist privateers’, and extremists would certainly profit from these ventures.

     The reason I say this is that both countries would be under the control of these extremists, and therefore any activity that happens in those countries under their watch, would be done with their blessing. Either directly or indirectly, they would profit from this piracy. Of course their form of the letter of marque would probably be the fatwa, but either way, I speculate that these extremists will not stop the activity.  They will be in a better position to control it and profit from this activity.

     Worse yet, obtaining ships and hostages is exactly the kind of jihadist ‘ammo’ that these guys would like. But the really big money maker for jihad, will be the transportation of drugs, guns, and people.  If Yemen and Somalia are both unstable or are under control of these extremists, this kind of money making activities will increase, and further help to fund Al Qaeda’s war against the west. They would have operating bases to train at, and they could also do business with drug cartels for transport or even storage–all for a price. Jihad requires funding, and having control of these countries would be key. Strategically speaking, it is a great move for Al Qaeda to focus on taking Yemen and Somalia.

     So what does all of this mean for our industry or for the current war effort?  Good question.  I think for our industry, we will expect to see an increased demand for armed security contractors on ships. Navies will soon reduce their costly patrols or escorts, and continue to advise the shipping industry to take on the costs of securing their own vessels.  We will still see anti-piracy operations out there, but I just don’t see it being enough to cover the kind of area we are talking about. Cost and operational scope comes to mind, and the world’s navies need private industry.  Private industry still needs the power and capabilities of those navies to come to their rescue if at a point of being overwhelmed, but still, the ocean is just too massive for the world’s navies to be every where and all at once.

     We will also see more African and Middle Eastern training opportunities for companies.  The ACOTA program is just one example, and training the various African nations who are most impacted by islamic extremists will be a big focus.  DynCorp is already training Ugandan troops before they ship out to Somalia.

     As for direct involvement, who knows?  Somalia is one of those places that absolutely needs security and stability, and it takes some serious muscle to do that.  I do not think the AU is the best force for the job, because the UN has no intention of using that army to do what it needs to do–and that is go on the offense.  Instead the AU is just sitting there and dying, while Al Shabab and others are attacking them daily. What a waste of manpower and equipment.

     I also think that it is interesting that Saudi Arabia has depended upon the company Vinnell Arabia for training up the SANG all these years, and that if Yemen turns into an ‘Afghanistan’ in the region, Saudi forces will have their hands full with dealing with terrorists pouring over the borders.  Some of that high dollar training they have been getting from Vinnell will be quite handy.

     For places like Somalia though, I say either send in a professional state sponsored army, or contract with a private military company, and give them the mission to clear and hold Somalia.(bring in contractors and the like for the build portion) And if a company like Executive Outcomes can be as successful as they were in places like Sierra Leon or Anglola, with the limited man power and resources they had, then I see no reason why a company today could not produce the same results if they followed the EO model.

     A company like Xe could put together a force that would absolutely be capable and willing to do a job like this. And now that the US government has made it clear that it fully supports and embraces the capabilities of companies like Xe for work in war zones, then I just don’t see how they are not good enough for stopping the Al Shabab in Somalia, or for battling extremists in Yemen?

     Or we can watch as those countries fall to extremists, and the neighbors to these countries pay the price.  Worse yet, terrorists from these sanctuaries span out even further into the west to conduct martyrdom missions and kill innocent people. -Matt

Is Yemen the Next Afghanistan?

New al-Qaida threat: Somali group claims blasts

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Nigerian sect leader praises al Qaeda, warns US

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Is Yemen the Next Afghanistan?

By ROBERT F. WORTH

July 6, 2010

Just before dawn on Dec. 24, an American cruise missile soared high over the southern coast of the Arabian peninsula, arced down toward the dark mountains above the Rafadh Valley in Yemen’s Shabwa province and found its mark, crashing into a small stone house on a hillside where five young men were sleeping. Half a mile away, a 27-year-old Yemeni tribesman named Ali Muhammad Ahmed was awakened by the sound. Stumbling out of bed, he quickly dressed, slung his AK-47 over his shoulder and climbed down a footpath to the valley that shelters his village, two hours from the nearest paved road. He already sensed what had happened. A week earlier, an American airstrike killed dozens of people in a neighboring province as part of an expanded campaign against Al Qaeda militants. (Although the U.S. military has acknowledged playing a role in the airstrikes, it has never publicly confirmed that it fired the missiles.)

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Tags: Afghanistan, Al Qaeda, executive outcomes, Gulf of Aden, jihadist privateers, Nigeria, Pakistan, private military companies, security, Somalia, Yemen