Feral Jundi

Saturday, March 24, 2012

Bounties: Offense Industry And Black Swan Event–The New Orleans Saints Finds An Edge With Bounties!

First off, who are we kidding?  The NFL is a business and war, and every team/army is doing everything they can to gain advantage and win Super Bowls. Teams pay millions of dollars in salaries to players, and those teams make millions of dollars from ticket sales and the selling of merchandise. It is an insanely popular sport here and it is very much a part of our national culture and heritage. Football in the US is big, big, business.

Not to mention that the teams purposely look for players that hit hard and can deliver results. That is what they are getting paid to do. Sure they wear body armor in the form of a helmet and pads, but their coaches are purely focused on turning that player into a weapon on the football field. They practice for their game, much like gladiators practiced for matches in the arena, or how soldiers train for war.

Why do I know this?  Because I played football when I was younger and hitting hard, targeting players to take them out of the game or to make crucial plays, and enjoying the win was what football was all about. You did not play the game to lose, nor does any player play the game to be ‘ineffective’. It’s a rough game requiring strategy, fitness and aggression, and fans and players wouldn’t have it any other way.

So when I read through this ‘bounty gate’ thing, I just shake my head as to how ridiculous and hypocritical it is. But it is also a Black Swan event in the NFL, because the New Orleans Saints found a scheme that worked and it has created an uproar. They created an offense industry that contributed to a win in the Super Bowl, and it did not require millions of dollars to fire it up. It reminds me of moneyball, another scheme that contributed to wins while saving money. (funny how Executive Outcomes won wars, while doing it on time and under budget too?… And they certainly shocked the world with their effectiveness. lol)

The other thing that is not mentioned enough is that bounties have been a common practice in the NFL for awhile. (please see the first article below) What ticked everyone off about the New Orleans Saint’s bounty program or ‘offense industry’, was that it was successful. That they won a bowl game, not that they were targeting players. All teams play the game violently and to it’s fullest, because if they didn’t, they would lose and they would lose out on money because fans and investors could care less about them. All teams have strategies that target the weakness or the center of gravity of the other team, and they have a very short period of time to win their war.

As to the bounty related rules, I also have to laugh. The teams are more concerned with salary caps so that teams that are well supported by rich owners or highly populated cities, do not have advantage over teams that do not have those resources. In the NFL, they try to make things equal when it comes to pay, just so the game is more interesting and fair. So when someone figures out how to properly implement an offense industry to win a game, and there is money involved with that scheme, then of course the other teams are going to cry. Not because of the safety issue, but because they didn’t think of it first. They also cry because it fits nicely in a morality attack to knock down a winning team. Remember Boyd’s ‘isolate your enemy morally, mentally, and physically, while increasing your moral, mental and physical standing’?

I do realize this is a sporting event and not warfare, so I guess some modicum of fair play should exist. lol But to me, what Gregg Williams did was awesome. This is exactly what ‘offense industry’ is all about, and Gregg used his particular bounty system to motivate his players to win their war. He also did it pretty efficiently by getting the players to add to their own bounty pool program, along with encouraging others to add to that pool. This gets everyone invested into the game. Williams could also focus on the key players of the opposition that would be strategically beneficial to take out of the game or render ineffective. Here is a brief run down of how it worked:

On March 2, 2012, ESPN’s Adam Schefter reported that the NFL had indeed found evidence of a bounty program. Later that day, the NFL announced it had obtained irrefutable proof of a bounty pool dating back to the 2009 season, based on a review of 18,000 documents. It determined that Williams had initiated the fund soon after he arrived in New Orleans in 2009, in hopes of making the defense more aggressive. Between 22 and 27 Saints defensive players were involved. The players and Williams contributed their own cash to the pot, and received cash payments based on their performance in the previous week’s game. For instance, a special teamer who downed a kick returner inside the receiving team’s 20-yard-line earned $100. Players could also be fined for mental mistakes and penalties. Players also received “bounties” for “cart-offs” (plays in which an opponent was removed from the field on a stretcher or cart) and “knockouts” (plays that resulted in a player being unable to return for the rest of the game). Players usually earned $1,000 for “cart-offs” and $1,500 for “knockouts” during the regular season, though they were encouraged to put their winnings back into the pot in order to raise the stakes as the season went on. Payments were known to double or even triple during the playoffs.
The NFL sent a confidential and detailed memo to all 32 teams detailing its findings. It revealed that the Saints had not only targeted Warner and Favre during the 2009 playoffs, but had also targeted Green Bay Packers quarterback Aaron Rodgers and Carolina Panthers quarterback Cam Newton during the 2011 regular season. According to that memo, Saints linebacker Jonathan Vilma offered $10,000 cash to any teammate who knocked Favre out of the NFC Championship Game. Another source told CBSSports.com’s Mike Freeman that Reggie Bush’s agent at the time, Michael Ornstein, was closely involved in the scheme from the beginning. Ornstein contributed $10,000 to the pot in 2009, and an undisclosed amount in 2011.

What is also hypocritical is Senator Dick Durbin’s shock about the whole thing. He will be conducting a Senate hearing on the practice of bounties in the NFL, and in other sports. I actually look forward to what comes out of it, just so I can learn what the various teams of different sports have done. Who knows, maybe the State Department and DARPA could learn from this?  Maybe the State Department can modify their Rewards For Justice program, and have Gregg Williams advise? lol –Matt

 

Saints took common practice of bounties to new, dangerous level
By Mike Freeman
Monday March 05, 2012?The bounty was $2,000, and the conditions were simple: Knock the starting quarterback out of the game and the cash was yours.
So it was on. The bounty was kept secret from the coaching staff and some of the team. Mostly, only the bounty hunters themselves — players on the defensive line — knew the whole plan. The money was fronted by the participants, and one player held the cash.
The problem was, in the game, no one reached the quarterback, and the bounty went unclaimed. The next week, it was doubled to $4,000. The quarterback survived the game intact. The pot grew to $8,000, and finally the defense had knocked out a quarterback, but there were problems. He was only out a few plays and the player who made the hit wasn’t part of the bounty crew.
The players spent the money on exotic dancers instead.
That’s one story from a player who asked that neither he nor his team be identified. Other players from around the NFL, in interviews, also recounted various bounty tales. The practice is far from isolated. Some players estimated 30 to 40 percent of all NFL players last season participated in a bounty system.
“This ‘bounty’ program happens all around the league,” former NFL lineman Damien Woody tweeted, “not surprising.”
“Bounties, cheap shots, whatever you want to call them, they are part of this game,” former Washington defensive back Matt Bowen wrote. “It is an ugly tradition … you will find it in plenty of NFL cities.”
This, the players seem to agree on. There are many bounty systems in the NFL. They can inspire more energized play, and are usually created by players, not coaches. Players interviewed said bounties are offered for anything from knocking a player out of the game to delivering so-called “remember-me” shots.

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Friday, March 11, 2011

Black Swan Events: Earthquake/Tsunami In Japan, Uprisings In The Middle East

     This is tragic, and my heart goes out to all those impacted by these disasters.  I was watching the tsunami in Japan on television and the footage was remarkable.  The tsunami was a result of an earthquake and it has pummeled Japan. There is a tsunami warning for Hawaii, other Pacific islands, and the entire West Coast in the US. To follow this stuff, definitely track the Pacific Tsunami Warning Center and your local news to get updates.

     A couple of things that come to mind on this.  This event, along with what is going on in Libya and potentially in Saudi Arabia, are all combining to make a Blackswan Event. Events that were not predicted, and change the dynamic dramatically. What I mean by that, is that the shock waves from both disasters, could have drastic consequence. The price of oil will rise, and all the business and economies that depend upon the stability of Japan will be negatively impacted. If Hawaii and the West Coast of the US are hit, that could have consequence as well. I will further update this post as events unfold and we will see how it goes…. –Matt

Update: 03/12/2011- Now the latest deal is the Nuclear Facilities in Japan are in dire straights. If they melt down, the fallout is of concern.  In the comments section, I have put up an article that discusses the fallout potential, and especially how it would impact North America via the Pacific Jet Stream.

Major Earthquake, Tsunami Hit Japan

Saudi police open fire at protest

Oil Rises in New York as Libyan Violence Intensifies, Refinery is Bombed

Major Earthquake, Tsunami Hit Japan

March 11, 2011

A massive 8.9 magnitude earthquake has struck off Japan’s northeastern coast, triggering a four meter tsunami that washed away cars along parts of the coastline.Video from national broadcaster NHK showed dozens of cars, large ferries and some buildings being swept out to sea in the port city of Kamaishi in the province of Iwate.The Japanese Meteorological Agency issued a tsunami warming for the entire Pacific coast of Japan following the quake that struck about 125 kilometers off the eastern coast, at a depth of 10 kilometers.  Residents in the coastal areas have been urged to immediately evacuate to higher ground.The Pacific Tsunami Warning Center in the U.S. state of Hawaii said a tsunami warning was also in effect for Russia, Marcus Island and the Northern Marianas.  It said a tsunami watch was issued for Guam, Taiwan, the Philippines, Indonesia and Hawaii.

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Sunday, April 11, 2010

Afghanistan: Polish and Kyrgyz Black Swan Events

   My heart goes out to Poland.  How incredibly tragic.  My heart goes out to the folks in Kyrgyzstan as well, and political upheaval is certainly a traumatic event for the people there.

   I put this in the Afghanistan category, because as we speak, there are several thousand Polish troops in Afghanistan that could possibly be called back to deal with their crisis. When the entire leadership is wiped out by an unfortunate air crash, there are just too many possibilities of what could happen. There was not much support for the war in Afghanistan, and new leadership might change direction on Poland’s involvement in the war.  I think it would be wise for today’s war planners to set in place some contingency stuff, if in fact Poland wants or even needs their troops back home.

   So that brings up the question, who would replace those troops if they had to scoot?  I brought this up a couple weeks ago in regards to NATO forces faltering and for whatever reason, having to leave the Afghan war. That contractors can be used to back fill, as NATO or ISAF finds replacement forces.

   In Kyrgyzstan, there has been some political unrest that has impacted Manas operations.  They actually halted all flights out of there today, and that is not good.  If logistics cannot depend upon the Manas air base there, then other options will have to be looked at.  The problem is though, that so much logistics goes through Manas, that there is a risk that operations will be negatively impacted in Afghanistan because of this hiccup. So will this mean that a new route or new air base will come on to the scene?  Will transportation on land increase because of what is going on, and what will that mean for private industry?

   I also called these incidents a Black Swan event, because they were not predicted, they will change the political landscape, and war planners will now have to look at contingency plans to deal with problems related to both of these countries. –Matt 

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Poland’s President, Central Bank Governor Die in Plane Crash

April 10, 2010

By David McQuaid and Piotr Skolimowski

April 11 (Bloomberg) — Polish President Lech Kaczynski and central bank Governor Slawomir Skrzypek were killed yesterday along with several key members of the country’s political elite when their plane crashed in western Russia, where they were to mark the 70th anniversary of a massacre of Polish officers.

The 60-year-old president’s wife, Maria, and leaders of the country’s main opposition parties and military, including the Army Chief of Staff Franciszek Gagor, also died, Foreign Ministry spokesman Piotr Paszkowski said in a phone interview. The crash, which happened as the aircraft was on approach for landing in Smolensk, killed all 96 on board, according to Russia’s Emergency Ministry.

Under Poland’s constitution the duties of the president, which are largely ceremonial, will be assumed by the speaker of the lower house of parliament, Bronislaw Komorowski. He will set a date for a presidential election within two weeks and the vote must be held within 60 days. Komorowski is the candidate of Prime Minister Donald Tusk’s Civic Platform party and polls show he was poised to defeat Kaczynski in presidential elections, originally scheduled for the second half of the year.

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