Feral Jundi

Friday, January 14, 2011

Israel: The Dubai Job, By Ronen Bergman

     According to the official police report, the killers first injected Al-Mabhouh with a poison, then smothered him with a pillow. Saeed Hamiri, M.D., of the Dubai forensic lab, said the crime-scene investigators found a trickle of blood on Al-Mabhouh’s pillow, bruises on his nose, face, and neck, and an injection mark on his right hip. Along with signs of struggle in the room—a damaged headboard, for example—these details would seem to suggest that the target was smothered to death. But one has to wonder about the plausibility of these conclusions. (The Dubai chief of police did not respond to several requests from GQ for an interview.)

 

     Why did the Mossad permit things to go so wrong in Dubai? In a word, the answer is leadership. Because Dagan refashioned the Mossad in his own image, and because he drove out anyone who was willing to question his decisions, there was no one in the agency to tell him that the Dubai operation was badly conceived and badly planned. They simply did not believe that a minnow in the world of intelligence services such as Dubai would be any match for Israel’s Caesarea fighters.

     Wow, what a cool article and it really shed some light on this assassination performed by the Mossad’s Caesarea.  I posted a deal about this incident when it first came out and it was very interesting to see how this played out on the world stage.

    Of course some folks called it an embarrassment for the Israelis, because the operatives and operation were revealed by the Dubai police.  And others called it a success and that maybe the Israelis wanted to show the world that the finest security out there could not stop them from doing what they had to do. Either way, the Hamas jackass they targeted is dead.

     Now that some time has passed and folks have been able to put the pieces together, we are now getting a better picture on how this went down.  I didn’t know back then if they used poison or a stun gun to incapacitate Mahmoud Al-Mabhouh, so that they could smother him with a pillow. I guess it was poison and toxicology boiled it down to succinylcholine. *

     But with this stuff, the drug itself could have killed him. The pillow could have been used to muffle the target’s voice while waiting for the drug to do it’s thing. The big benefit of this drug is that it is one of the fastest acting muscle relaxants out there, so the struggle would have been minimal.

     The other part of this story that was interesting, was the commentary on Dagan–Mossad’s director.  If it is true that he is not seeking feedback or other people’s opinions then that is not good. Ultimately, an organization must be a learning organization if it wants to continuously improve. And because Dagan has forced out or shut down anyone that disagrees with him, now he is at the mercy of what Irving Janis calls groupthink. Not good. –Matt

The Dubai Job

One year ago, an elite Mossad hit squad traveled to Dubai to kill a high-ranking member of Hamas. They completed the mission, but their covers were blown, and Israel was humiliated by the twenty-seven-minute video of their movements that was posted online for all the world to see. Ronen Bergman reveals the intricate, chilling details of the mission and investigates how Israel’s vaunted spy agency did things so spectacularly wrong

By Ronen Bergman

January 2011

Monday, January 18, 2010. MorningAt 6:45 a.m., the first members of an Israeli hit squad land at Dubai International Airport and fan out through the city to await further instructions. Over the next nineteen hours, the rest of the team—at least twenty-seven members—will arrive on flights from Zurich, Rome, Paris, and Frankfurt. They have come to kill a man named Mahmoud Al-Mabhouh, a Hamas leader whose code name within the Mossad—the Israeli intelligence agency—is Plasma Screen.

Most of the operatives here are members of a secretive unit within the Mossad known as Caesarea, a self-contained organization that is responsible for the agency’s most dangerous and critical missions: assassinations, sabotage, penetration of high-security installations. Caesarea’s “fighters,” as they are known, are the elite of the Mossad. They rarely interact with other operatives and stay away from Mossad headquarters north of Tel Aviv, instead undergoing intensive training at a separate facility to which no one else in the agency has access. They are forbidden from ever using their real names, even in private conversation, and—with the exception of their spouses—their families and closest friends are unaware of what they do. As one longtime Caesarea fighter recently told me, “If the Mossad is the temple of Israel’s intelligence community, then Caesarea is its holy of holies.”

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Tuesday, February 16, 2010

Dubai: The Assassination Of Hamas Scumbag Mahmud al-Mabhuh, Caught On CCTV

Filed under: Dubai,Video — Tags: , , , — Matt @ 11:52 AM

Friday, January 16, 2009

Israel: How to Close the Gaza Tunnels, by William Saletan

Filed under: Israel,Tactical Thought Process,Technology — Tags: , , , — Matt @ 4:36 PM

    An excellent collection of ideas, on how to shut down these tunnel systems on the borders of Gaza.  I think a combination of several of these ideas are the way to go.  Who knows, there might be some contracting opportunities with this one for some construction company.  It would either be an Egyptian or Israeli company to work on this stuff, but you never know who they might contract for this stuff.  I posted some stuff regarding the SBInet Boeing project along the US border, and they experiment and use a lot of the same stuff to detect tunnels.

   My favorites are the combination of UAV/with sensors, and ground sensors, all tied into one center.  It sounds expensive, but anything that could reduce the smuggling operations would equate to less rockets being manufactured and launched. The tunnel issue will be a big deal during the ceasefire–when it comes. –Matt

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Holey War

How to close the Gaza tunnels.

By William Saletan

Posted Friday, Jan. 16, 2009, at 7:58 AM ET

In the skies over Gaza, Israel rules. Its planes, helicopters, and drones patrol and fire at will. On the ground, Israeli troops advance while Hamas lies in wait. But the ultimate battleground isn’t visible from the sky or on your television news. It’s underground.

Gaza is riddled with tunnels. Some are for smuggling; others are for transporting weapons; others are for hiding or ambushing Israeli troops. The crucial passageways—400 to 600, by recent estimates—run from Gaza to Egypt, circumventing the closed border. That’s how Hamas gets parts and material for the missiles it fires into Israel. Any deal to end the current fighting has to include “an effective blockading” of that border, “with supervision and follow-ups,” according to Israel’s prime minister. To stop the war—and to keep it stopped—you have to figure out how to stop the tunnels.

But how? Here are some of the options.

1. Buffer zone. Israel used to control a 300-meter strip between Gaza and Egypt. That wasn’t enough to stop Gazans from tunneling under it to Egypt. But what if the strip were thicker? Would that raise the cost of tunneling, or the probability of a collapse somewhere along the passage, enough to deter diggers? Israeli hawks want a buffer zone three kilometers thick, which would make tunnel excavation much more difficult, expensive, and time-consuming. Lately, the Israeli Defense Forces have dropped leaflets urging Gazans along the border to leave their homes—an attempt, some experts believe, to use the war to widen the buffer zone. But good luck getting Hamas, the Palestinian Authority, or European intermediaries to hand over three kilometers of south Gaza, much less remove the inconvenient residents from their homes.

2. Wall. Instead of thickening the old buffer zone, how about deepening it? Years ago, Israel tried a concrete-iron wall that extended 10 feet underground. A nice try, but fairly useless, since the tunnels went at least 20 feet underground. Then, just more than a year ago, two high-ranking officials from the U.S. Defense and State Departments went to Egypt with a proposal to build a new barrier, including “piles driven deep into the earth.” But even if you extend a wall far enough underground, tunnelers can dig through it.

3. Moat. Maybe, instead of burying a solid barrier that could be dug through, we should make the barrier hollow and fill it with water. That way, anyone trying to dig through would—well, let’s just say you wouldn’t want to be there when it happened. This was such an intriguing idea that Israel tried it several years ago, soliciting bids for a moat four kilometers long, 100 meters wide, and 80 feet deep. Estimated cost: $250 million. Israel scrapped the plan because the water would come from the sea and might contaminate Gaza’s groundwater. But the idea keeps coming back. Two years ago, Israel broached it again, and Egypt considered it. The U.S. officials who went to Egypt a year ago raised it again. Even the president of the Palestinian Authority has lobbied Egypt to do it.

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Monday, January 12, 2009

Israel: Gaza Webcam, Traps and Trickery, and the PR War

Filed under: Israel,Tactical Thought Process,Technology — Tags: , , , , — Matt @ 1:48 PM

    All of this is developing, but we are definitely getting a picture of what modern day urban warfare really means.  This is a fascinating study, and these articles(4 total) give us a glimpse as to what is going with this.

   The couple stories that jumped out at me, was the use of tunnels:

 

In another case, soldiers discovered a mannequin dressed like a soldier at the entrance to a home, Halamish said.Had soldiers entered the home, the mannequin would have exploded, collapsing the floor and causing the troops to fall into a tunnel, where Hamas men would have tried to abduct them. 

 

   And this one:

 

Unwilling to take Israel’s bait and come into the open, Hamas militants are fighting in civilian clothes; even the police have been ordered to take off their uniforms. The militants emerge from tunnels to shoot automatic weapons or antitank missiles, then disappear back inside, hoping to lure the Israeli soldiers with their fire. 

 

   Tunnel warfare is definitely a factor in this war, like I was talking about earlier. The entrapment technique is different, and certainly one to watch out for.  Hamas wants to capture an IDF soldier bad. Although the IDF saw this coming a long time ago. 

      The Public Relations war is fascinating as well, and I posted earlier about some of the things they are doing to combat negative public opinion.  And what is really interesting, and I do not have any figures to back this up, is if the IDF or the Israeli government has monetized their PR effort?  

    You might laugh, but I am always watching commercials on all of the news channels, with some Israeli group asking for donations. Where as the IDF or the government might not ask directly for money from private donors, support groups within Israel are asking.  But for the government to take advantage of monetizing their online efforts with stuff like Google Adsense, would be very easy to do and would make them some money.  Or for them to put donation buttons on everything government related would work too. We already know that Israel receives money from the US government, but this new angle on financing wars would be an interesting study. Like I said with Obama and his online campaign, the power of the internet can certainly be used by an individual or even a country, to rally support and bring in donations for the cause.  The internet makes that process very easy to do.

   But all speculation aside, the biggest benefit of a major PR campaign online, is to defeat the other side’s PR campaign.  It is a war online, as well as on the ground, and there are no limits as to where this war is being fought.  –Matt 

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January 11, 2009

A Gaza War Full of Traps and Trickery

By STEVEN ERLANGER

JERUSALEM — The grinding urban battle unfolding in the densely populated Gaza Strip is a war of new tactics, quick adaptation and lethal tricks.

Hamas, with training from Iran and Hezbollah, has used the last two years to turn Gaza into a deadly maze of tunnels, booby traps and sophisticated roadside bombs. Weapons are hidden in mosques, schoolyards and civilian houses, and the leadership’s war room is a bunker beneath Gaza’s largest hospital, Israeli intelligence officials say.

Unwilling to take Israel’s bait and come into the open, Hamas militants are fighting in civilian clothes; even the police have been ordered to take off their uniforms. The militants emerge from tunnels to shoot automatic weapons or antitank missiles, then disappear back inside, hoping to lure the Israeli soldiers with their fire.

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Sunday, January 11, 2009

Mexico: Could Hamas or FARC Ideas, Inspire Mexico’s Narco-Insurgency?

Filed under: Crime,Mexico — Tags: , , , — Matt @ 3:00 PM

 

   Today I want to look at the situation across the border, and kind of look into the future of the narco war in Mexico.  Also please read General McCaffrey’s After Action Mexico Report, as a good little primer on the situation.  The question I have, is Mexico strong enough to battle these drug cartels, and how will the drug cartels treat the US as we feed the anti-drug war with Plan Merida?

    So with that in mind, let’s for a second explore the possibilities, no matter how ridiculous.  Already tunnels have been used to smuggle people, drugs, and weapons on the US/Mexican border.  Notice how this same tactic is used by Hamas in Israel?  There have also been incidents of criminals engaging with Border Patrol using automatic weapons, and operating more like military units, as opposed to thugs.  Is this not what Hamas does?  Or how about FARC?  We have a deal with Colombia called Plan Colombia, and that support is used to fight a very bloody narco war there.  Imagine if Colombia was right on our border in the US?  Would FARC have crossed the border, and made the US pay for our support of Colombia?  I am positive they would.  

   So where do all of these examples lead us?  With a determined group, they will try everything they can to survive and keep the business going.  These groups will learn from others, and will be inspired by working models of operation.  Mexico’s Narco-insurgency will learn from Hamas and they will learn from FARC, and I am sure they will learn from others, as to the best way to stop the governments of both the US and Mexico from messing with their business.

    One way that I could see these guys going, is launching rockets into the US, much like Hamas did with Israel.  Hell, the FARC even did something similar within Colombia, by using propane lob bombs or IRAM’s.  The idea being, is to piss off the larger neighbor to the north, and force the US to do something violent.  They would want US forces to come into Mexico and try to shut things down.  But once that happens, then the larger picture of Public Relations presents itself, and a US military action in Mexico would make the Mexican military and police seem even weaker and this action could piss off a lot of civilians.  At worse, even civilians could be killed in that scenario.  And if you are to study the FARC in Colombia, civilians have been killed during that narco-war, mostly by FARC, but also by accidents with government reaction to the FARC. 

   Now with an insurgency, when a smaller group attacks an occupier or an invading force, that smaller group actually becomes the good guy in some cases amongst the local populations.  The drug cartels would love for this scenario to present itself.  So if these guys could egg on the US, to become more involved, then they would be happy.  The Plan Merida, much like the Plan Colombia, is our first step in combating these narco-insurgencies.  But we also have to be prepared for some push back from the drug cartels for getting involved like this.  Will these guys start launching rockets into US cities to start a fight?  Who knows, but I do know that the drug cartels in Mexico are getting more brazen and more powerful all the time.  The Mexican government is having a hell of a time fighting this, and my big fear is that a full blown narco war in Mexico could look a lot like the one in Colombia, and that would not be a good thing for the US. –Matt 

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General McCaffrey’s After Action Mexico Report focusing on drugs and crime in Mexico.

Academic Mexico Trip Report – December 2008

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Mexico’s Narco-Insurgency 

 Hal Brands | 22 Dec 2008

World Politics Review

When Barack Obama takes office on Jan. 20, his foreign policy will almost certainly be consumed by the insurgencies in Iraq and Afghanistan. Yet Obama would do well to pay equal attention to a third ongoing insurgency, one that is currently more violent than the war in Iraq and possibly more threatening to American interests. This insurgency is raging not half a world away in the Middle East, but just across America’s southern frontier in Mexico.

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