Feral Jundi

Monday, May 10, 2010

Military News: Secretary Gates Declares War On Defense Spending

Filed under: Afghanistan,Finance,Military News — Tags: , , , , , — Matt @ 4:10 AM

   This seems to be the same rhetoric that every Defense Secretary dishes out, but this time I am going to speculate that there is something a little different about this time.  Saving pennies is now in the vocabulary of the leaders of this war, because they have no other choice.  There is just too much going on out there, for the sacred cow called defense spending to not be impacted.

   I kind of look at it like this.  If the US is part of this massive globalized economy, then things that happen in the global economy will impact the US economy.  A case in point is the Greek debt crisis.   The volcano in Iceland is another, as is the current recession in the US.  The oil disaster in the Gulf of Mexico is another.  And of course the two wars we are fighting is costing us billions of dollars every year. Eventually all of that debt and chaos will catch up, and I am sure the administration has given the call to Secretary Gates that it is time to cinch up the belt.  Who knows what the conversations at the top entail, and all I can focus on right now is actions.

   Below I have posted three stories.  The first is how Gates’ new mission to curb spending will impact war plans.  If soldiers are costing a million a day in places like Afghanistan, then money for fancy new military equipment that is only marginally better than the current piece of equipment might be axed.  Actually, it will be axed and that is the whole point. Cost effective war fighting measures will come more into play, and the military will be asked to do more with less.  That is what happens when we go into ‘saving pennies’ mode.

   The next story is about the Greek debt crisis.  My question on this, is what will happen to the rest of Europe do to these issues?  And how that impacts the war effort, is if a country is in debt, then paying for troop deployments in the war might be a little much for the citizenry to stomach.  After all, if our Secretary of Defense is talking this kind of talk, what are the secretaries of defense of other countries saying, who are involved in this war?  Could we expect more last minute pull outs where vacuums are created that must be filled by either US troops or ….. contractors? Something to ponder I guess.

   The final story is about the cost of the war.  It is staggering, and the one figure I keep going back to is the cost per soldier for a year in Afghanistan.  $500,000 to a million for one soldier, for the year is a lot of money. –Matt

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Gates: Runaway Military Spending May Affect War Plans

May 8, 2010

ABILENE, Kansas (Reuters) – Defence Secretary Robert Gates told the U.S. military on Saturday it must rein in spending that he called out of sync with today’s tough economic times, and said budget woes could be a factor in deciding whether to use force against Iran and others.

Promising to play a hands-on role in wringing out savings, Gates held out the possibility of axing headquarters, merging whole agencies and culling the officer corps, taking on entrenched interests sure to put up a fight.

Sticker shock from wars in Afghanistan and Iraq also mean President Barack Obama and Congress may be more cautious about committing U.S. forces to another costly military engagement, he said.

“I do think that as we look to the future, particularly for the next couple of years or so while we’re in Iraq and Afghanistan, I think the Congress and the president would look long and hard at another military operation that would cost us $100 billion (67.6 billion pounds) a year,” Gates told reporters.

“If there’s a real threat out there, the president and Congress will spend whatever it takes to protect the nation. But in situations where there are real choices, I think this would be a factor,” he added.

Asked if Iran fell into the category where costs would be a factor in deciding whether to strike over its nuclear program, Gates said it was unclear. “It depends on developments over the next year or two,” he said.

Gates said his goal was to cut overhead in the Defence Department’s nearly $550 billion baseline budget between two to three percent, or $10 billion to $15 billion per year, starting in fiscal 2012. The savings would allow the Pentagon to sustain force levels and free up funds for modernization programs.

Without such savings, Gates said, “it is highly unlikely that we will achieve the real growth rates necessary to sustain the current force structure.”

(more…)

Tuesday, April 20, 2010

Somalia: Al Shabab Recruits ‘Holy Warriors’ With $400 Bonus

Filed under: Al Qaeda,Somalia — Tags: , , , , , , — Matt @ 2:12 AM

    So, here we are again with another group of window lickers paying more than the local government to raise an army.  If we want to invigorate the government and it’s army, then they need the money to at least be able to pay more than the Al Shabab. That’s just common sense, and the rule of choice.

   Even this industry is guided by this rule.  People not only join something because they believe in it, but they also join a group/company/gang because it will improve their capacity for independent action. It could be for food, money, protection, whatever–we are all striving to improve our lot in life. If Al Shabab has a better deal than the government, then that is what the government should worry about and fix. –Matt

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Somalia’s Al Shabab Recruits ‘Holy Warriors’ with $400 Bonus

War-torn and Impoverished, Some Somali Youths Join Extremist Group to Make Money

By SCOTT BALDAUF and ALI MOHAMED

April 17, 2010

When Dahir Abdi joined the Somali extremist group Al-Shabab early last year, his motive had more to do with money than with God.

Back home in the Barawa district of southern Somalia, his parents and younger brothers and sisters were living on less than a single meal per day. His mother was too weak to fetch firewood to sell in the market, and too poor to buy the all-covering veil that was now required by Al-Shabab.

So when a recruiter from Al Shabab (whose name means “the youth” in Arabic) gave him $400 and the promise of a regular salary, Dahir joined willingly. He knew that even if he didn’t survive the war, his family would have a better chance to ward off starvation.

(more…)

Thursday, December 17, 2009

Somalia: A Pirate’s Life Is Good In Somalia

Filed under: Somalia — Tags: , , , , , — Matt @ 10:33 AM

   Amazing.  If you read this, it matches exactly how the US privateers impacted the local colonies back in our early history.  The question I have, is what direction will this go?  Will Al Shabaab demand a cut or participate in these ventures to make money for jihad?  If the local religious leaders keep scorning the capitalist activities of these newly rich pirates, then maybe religious extremists will attach the whole piracy thing to jihad, in order to keep the activity going strong and take advantage of the skills of these guys?

    It is an excellent money maker, and if Al Qaeda is not doing too well in the donations department, then I could see them going down this path.  I could also see them going down the drug smuggling path, just as long as they can somehow tie it into jihad. If they can justify suicide bombers and killing innocents in jihad, they can justify privateering and drug smuggling.

   Despite the direction it goes, these guys will continue to get more loot.  They have a taste of that good life, and they will not let go of that anytime soon. Piracy is king in Somalia, and all the kids are doing it.

    I say break out the LoM and lets make a pirate’s life miserable and poor. Turn the eradication of pirates, into a full blown industry and take back the high seas. –Matt

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A pirate’s life is good in Somalia

Thursday, December 17, 2009

Mohamed Olad Hassan

BOSSASO, Somalia

A parcel of land here that sold for $12,000 two years ago now costs more than $20,000. The price of a nice pair of men’s shoes has gone up from $20 to $50. The reason: pirates. The influx of millions of dollars in ransoms has changed life in this coastal Muslim community, driving prices up and creating a schism between the pirate haves and have-nots. As piracy ramps up again with the end of the monsoon season, the lifestyle of the pirates – big houses, fast cars and easy drugs – is decried by both religious leaders and ordinary villagers.

“The use of drugs such as cannabis and the drinking of alcohol, sex and other obnoxious misconduct are now becoming common within the pirates, causing social problems,” said Sheik Ahmed, a mosque leader in the town of Galkayo. “That is what is worrying us, a lot more than the risk they pose to the foreign ships and crew.”

(more…)

Saturday, March 7, 2009

Kaizen: The Expert on Experts; Foxes and Hedgehogs

Filed under: Kaizen — Tags: , , , , , , — Matt @ 2:07 AM

   This was a tough article to define, because I originally thought this would be great for the Building Snowmobiles category.  Col. Boyd would have liked this, because this author echoed many of the philosophies Boyd had.  From the importance of randomness in warfare(experts have a hard time with randomness–great for beating an expert on the battlefield), to Boyd’s aversion to being called an expert or committing to one doctrine because of what it implies–that he knew everything or that doctrine was the end all.  And according to this article, I would definitely define Boyd as a Fox, and not a Hedgehog:

 What makes some forecasters better than others?

The most important factor was not how much education or experience the experts had but how they thought. You know the famous line that [philosopher] Isaiah Berlin borrowed from a Greek poet, “The fox knows many things, but the hedgehog knows one big thing”? The better forecasters were like Berlin’s foxes: self-critical, eclectic thinkers who were willing to update their beliefs when faced with contrary evidence, were doubtful of grand schemes and were rather modest about their predictive ability. The less successful forecasters were like hedgehogs: They tended to have one big, beautiful idea that they loved to stretch, sometimes to the breaking point. They tended to be articulate and very persuasive as to why their idea explained everything. The media often love hedgehogs. 

    I also read this and started looking back at all of the examples of foxes and hedgehogs in media and in this industry.  From the anchorman on some cable news show, to some jackass you have come across out in the field or even online, all trying to convince us that they are the so-called ‘expert’.  With the studies that have been presented by Phil, it is nice to see what really defines a forecaster or so-called expert.  I am sure that some of the same rules apply to Opinion Leaders or Mavens, and further solidify the reasons why we even listen to these folks. It also gives a person a set of rules to follow, if they want to be more respected as a teacher, forecaster, leader, or Maven.  Be the fox.  Be the self-critical, eclectic thinker that is willing to update your beliefs when faced with contrary evidence, and always question grand schemes and be modest about your ability to predict.  You can definitely apply that to whatever niche you claim as yours, and constantly improve on your standing as leader in your field. –Matt    

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Why the experts missed the crash

Which forecasters should you trust on the direction of the economy and the markets? Ask Philip Tetlock, who knows the kind of expert worth listening to – and what to listen for.

By Eric Schurenberg, Money Magazine

Last Updated: February 18, 2009: 4:10 PM ET

(Money Magazine) — You’ve probably never wanted expert insight more than today – and never trusted it less. After all, the intelligent, articulate, well-paid authorities voicing these opinions are the ones who created the crisis or failed to predict it or lost 30% of your 401(k) in it.

Yet we can’t tear ourselves away. The crisis has brought record ratings to CNBC and its parade of talking heads. You’re probably still entrusting your portfolio to the experts running mutual funds. Despite everything, we can’t shake the belief that elite forecasters know better than the rest of us what the future holds.

The record, unfortunately, proves no such thing. And no one knows that record better than Philip Tetlock, 54, a professor of organizational behavior at the Haas Business School at the University of California-Berkeley. Tetlock is the world’s top expert on, well, top experts. Some 25 years ago, he began an experiment to quantify the forecasting skill of political experts.

(more…)

Monday, March 31, 2008

Industry Talk: Just How Overpaid are We?

Filed under: Industry Talk,Publications — Tags: , , , , — Matt @ 1:39 PM

First off, I wanted to give a big thumbs up to a really cool magazine called Serviam.  I highly suggest getting a subscription, or just reading through the website every once in awhile.  The articles are great stuff to chew on, for the industry.  

As far as this discussion goes, I think it is important to talk about our value as a whole, and what we are really worth out there.  And because this industry has evolved so quickly, your ammunition for evaluating contracts and future employment, starts with a basic knowledge of what you are worth.   Cheers and happy job hunting out there. -Head Jundi

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Just How Overpaid are Private Security Contractors?

By Ann Jocelyn

A base pay of $165,000 per year is a lot of money for most people, especially to a soldier. It’s no wonder that some military professionals aspire to become highly paid private security contractors (PSCs), and that others will simply resent them for earning these high wages.

Compared with the basic pay of an active duty E-6 staff sergeant with 10 years of service, the cash compensation of a top-end PSC is a small fortune. Some critics are outraged that a high-end contractor is paid nearly five times as much as that of an E-6. The contracting system, they say, is unfair to the troops and is a rip-off of the taxpayer. For every one contractor, the reasoning goes, the U.S. could pay for five staff sergeants.

That might make sense if the compensation systems were similar. But they aren’t. Serviam spoke with some of the highest-paid PSCs in Iraq to learn exactly what they earn in salary and benefits, and what they return to the government in taxes. We then looked at official U.S. military compensation charts. When comparing net cash and noncash compensation, we found that the E-6 sergeant can take home more pay and benefits than the security contractor. (more…)

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