Feral Jundi

Saturday, February 26, 2011

Books: The War That Never Was, By Duff Hart Davis

By 1967, there were still a dozen British mercenaries in the Yemen, training the royalists, laying mines and setting up ambushes. More than 20,000 of Nasser’s troops had been killed, while the Yemeni royalists had lost 5,000. 

In June that year, as Nasser and his allies prepared to go to war with Israel, the Israelis launched pre-emptive air strikes, destroying the Egyptian, Syrian and Jordanian air forces. 

With their total air superiority, they were able to decimate Nasser’s army as it advanced, wrecking its tanks and killing more than 15,000 men. Thousands more surrendered.

The Six Day War was a resounding victory for Israel — and spelt the end of Nasser’s dreams of dominating the Arabian peninsular. He withdrew from Yemen and after four years the Egyptian occupation was over. 


I have not been able to get my hands on this book and read it, but it definitely caught my eye after reading this review below.  These guys remind me of such famous and highly effective private fighting forces like the Flying Tigers or Executive Outcomes. This private army had a huge impact on events in the region as you can see from the quote up top, and this book supposedly lays it all out.

Probably the one story in this article that caught my eye was the event where they cut out the lungs of a poison gas victim, to send it back to Britain and prove that Egypt was using poison gas in Yemen.  That is news to me and I did not know that Egypt was using WMD’s during that war.

I also thought it was funny that Saudi Arabia Royalty funded the operation, which also included an Israeli air supply contingent.  Like the article mentioned, Saudi Arabia did not know this little fact and I am sure they would have cut off funding if they had found out. lol Cool book and if any of the readership has anything to add, please feel free to comment. –Matt

Buy the book here.


Jim Johnson, the leader of this private army.(he passed away in 2008)


How a rag-tag team of SAS veterans changed history in a secret war Britain STILL won’t admit

By Annabel Venning17th February 2011

Crouching behind rocks in the rugged mountains that rose abruptly out of the Yemen desert, were three British soldiers, former members of the SAS, together with their commander, Lieutenant Colonel Johnny Cooper.

They had lain in wait, machine guns at the ready, all through the cold desert night. At 9am the first Egyptian soldiers advanced into the wadi (gully), their infantry packed shoulder to shoulder, followed by tanks and artillery.

Behind the rocks, nobody moved. The success of the ambush depended on surprise. Then, as the enemy reached a small plain that Cooper had designated as the ‘killing ground,’ he gave the signal.

A rattle of machine gun fire cut through the wadi, bullets sending geysers of sand into the air, amid screams of pain and terror.

The Egyptians’ front ranks tumbled, Cooper remembered: ‘Like ninepins. Panic broke out in the ranks behind and then their tanks opened fire. Their shells were exploding?.?.?.?among their own men.’

In the ten-minute firefight that ensued, many of the Egyptian casualties were from their own guns. All day they fired on Cooper’s positions. But he and his men, with their Yemeni comrades, were dug well into their ‘funk holes’. As night fell the Egyptian force withdrew back to their base in the Yemeni capital of Sana’a, leaving 85 bodies behind.

It was a rout, the first of many successful engagements that over the next four years would see a small force of British soldiers fight fiercely in a desert war of which most of their countrymen were unaware.

Wearing Arab dress, like latter-day Lawrences of Arabia, the men, mostly ex-SAS, fought in a savage, dirty war of poison bombs, secret airdrops and desert shoot-outs.

It was an operation that began with a deal made over gin and tonics in a Mayfair gentlemen’s club and progressed into arms smuggling, ambushes and the existence of a private army, directed from a one-room basement headquarters in Chelsea by a debonair former Army officer and his sidekick, a beautiful former debutante.

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Thursday, February 17, 2011

Cool Stuff: Predictions On Mideast Revolution–Economist Vs. Paddy Power

     Well, according to the Shoe-Thrower’s index Yemen is high on the list.  Of course this is not as current as the Paddy Power prediction, which indicates Bahrain as the next to go.  But Yemen is still a close second.

    Also, if guys have radically different odds from a different source, please feel free to post those with a link in the comments section. –Matt

Edit: 02/20/2010- It looks like Paddy Power took it down.  Although I will leave up the odds from that date, just for reference.

Edit: 02/22/2011- Intrade now offers contracts on who will fall next. Check it out here. Libya and Bahrain are very active.

The Shoe-Thrower’s index

Feb 9th 2011

An index of unrest in the Arab world

IN THIS week’s print edition we ran a table showing a number of indicators for members of the Arab League. By adding a few more and ascribing different weights to them we have come up with the Shoe-Thrower’s index, which aims to predict where the scent of jasmine may spread next. Some factors are hard to put a number on and are therefore discounted. For instance, dissent is harder in countries with a very repressive secret police (like Libya). The data on unemployment were too spotty to be comparable and so this important factor is discounted too. We took out the Comoros and Djibouti, which do not have a great deal in common with the rest of the group, and removed the Palestinian territories, Sudan and Somalia for lack of data. The chart below is the result of ascribing a weighting of 35% for the share of the population that is under 25; 15% for the number of years the government has been in power; 15% for both corruption and lack of democracy as measured by existing indices; 10% for GDP per person; 5% for an index of censorship and 5% for the absolute number of people younger than 25. Jordan comes out surprisingly low on the chart, which suggests the weighting might need to be tweaked. Post suggestions in the comments below and we will refine it.

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Paddy Power odds (as of Feb 17, 2011)

Next Leader To Step Down

Applies to the next country from the below list to have a prime minister/president/monarch/state leader step down due to public protests,

Must be reported by Sky News,

PP decision is final in settlement. (amount won if you bet $2)

Bahrain 3/1               $8

Yemen 7/2                   9

Jordan 7/2                   9

Morocco 5/1               12

Algeria 6/1                 14

Libya 7/1                    16

Iran 12/1                    26

Iraq 16/1                    34

Sudan 16/1                 34

Saudi Arabia 20/1    42

Syria 20/1                  42

(more…)

Wednesday, November 17, 2010

Maritime Security: More Information About Yemen’s ‘Rent-A-Navy’

     Tariq said Yemen’s navy and coast guard agree to the escorts only if they already have patrols planned in the areas where shippers are asking for the guards. The navy and coast guard turn down “more than half” of the escort requests that his company forwards from shippers because the duties of Yemen’s national defense require them elsewhere, he said.

     Government officials in Yemen ”will not risk jeopardizing their relationship with supporting countries just for this,” Tariq insisted, in a reference to any qualms the United States and other donor countries might have. 

     Well, this is not really a new story, but still pretty interesting to read about. I also have to critique the loose use of the word ‘privateer’ in the title below. There is nothing private about this venture and this is the government of Yemen selling the services of their navy to shipping companies. This is certainly not privateering by any definition.

     Also, the Tanzanian Navy was contracted out to protect a Maersk ship, so the statement below about Yemen being the only country to do this is wrong. Here is the story I posted awhile back about the matter.

     But that does bring up an interesting thought. If Yemen is so strapped for cash and they are willing to rent out their navy, then maybe they might actually contemplate granting Letters of Marque to private industry? It is a shame they have to turn down all of those requests by the shipping industry.

     Yemen could stand to make some money off implementing a LoM system. They could take 10 percent (or whatever amount) of the fee paid to private companies by shipping or insurance companies, to do this kind of escort service. In turn, Yemen could grant a LoM to these companies and give them the legal backing to protect these vessels.

     Or better yet, if Yemen set up a good ol’ fashion ‘Prize Court’, then companies could take captured vessels and hardware back to these courts and gain legal ownership of those goods.(with Yemen taking their cut of course)

     Although like I have mentioned before, these thugs really don’t carry a lot of valuable things on them when they do these attacks. But you never know?  With all of these multi-million dollar ransoms being paid out, it wouldn’t surprise me to see some of these pirates buzzing around in Cigarette Boats or Yachts and wearing gold chains around their necks.

     These companies could even bring back captured pirates and have the legal system in Yemen deal with these guys–especially if there was incentive for Yemen to hold these pirates.  The international community continues to look for countries that would be willing to prosecute and imprison pirates, and Yemen would work. It definitely sounds like we have an interest in doing business in Yemen for the war effort, and this could be one part of that.-Matt

The Privateers of Yemen

Starved for revenue and riddled with corruption, the Yemeni navy and coast guard have adopted a novel fundraising strategy: guns for hire.

By Ellen Knickmeyer

November 17, 2010

Yemen’s leaders are pushing the United States to increase its military aid roughly 40-fold for their country to fight al Qaeda — but Yemen isn’t just relying on aid to generate cash from the international security threats burgeoning on its lands and seas.

For more than a year, Yemen’s financially pragmatic civilian and military officials have been contracting with at least one maritime-security broker to hire out commissioned Yemeni warships and active-duty and armed Yemeni coast guard and navy sailors as private escorts for merchant ships and oil tankers crossing the pirate-infested Gulf of Aden. The cost for Yemen’s escort service: up to $55,000 per ship, per trip.

Guaranteeing “the ultimate protection for your vessel and crew,” the website of Gulf of Aden Group Transits, Yemen’s London-based broker, offers shippers “a dedicated escort by a heavily armored 37.5 meter Yemen Navy Austal patrol boat” and ”six serving Yemen military or coast guard personnel to embark and protect your vessel.”

The fee apparently also guarantees shippers a degree of immunity regarding any ensuing battles at sea: “Any action taken by the teams or vessels provided … is fully authorized by the Yemeni Government,” says the website of Lotus Maritime Security, the Yemeni company that claims to serve as a liaison between the London-based broker, the Yemeni government and military, and shippers.

(more…)

Wednesday, July 14, 2010

Al Qaeda: The Next Afghanistan–Somalia, Yemen, Or Both?

     It is important to take a step back sometimes, and get a feel for the world wide situation with this enemy we are fighting.  Afghanistan or Pakistan is not the only game in town, and what I wanted to do below is put up some current significant events that highlight how global this war is.

     A couple of things that came to mind while reading this stuff.  Imagine if both Yemen and Somalia fell to these Al Qaeda backed groups, and these countries became sanctuaries for AQ?  You would have two Islamic extremist states who would control both sides of the Gulf of Aden and turn that sucker into a gauntlet for piracy or whatever.  But I would even go as far as to say that the piracy we are now familiar with, would instead transition into something else.  We would see these pirates turn into ‘jihadist privateers’, and extremists would certainly profit from these ventures.

     The reason I say this is that both countries would be under the control of these extremists, and therefore any activity that happens in those countries under their watch, would be done with their blessing. Either directly or indirectly, they would profit from this piracy. Of course their form of the letter of marque would probably be the fatwa, but either way, I speculate that these extremists will not stop the activity.  They will be in a better position to control it and profit from this activity.

     Worse yet, obtaining ships and hostages is exactly the kind of jihadist ‘ammo’ that these guys would like. But the really big money maker for jihad, will be the transportation of drugs, guns, and people.  If Yemen and Somalia are both unstable or are under control of these extremists, this kind of money making activities will increase, and further help to fund Al Qaeda’s war against the west. They would have operating bases to train at, and they could also do business with drug cartels for transport or even storage–all for a price. Jihad requires funding, and having control of these countries would be key. Strategically speaking, it is a great move for Al Qaeda to focus on taking Yemen and Somalia.

     So what does all of this mean for our industry or for the current war effort?  Good question.  I think for our industry, we will expect to see an increased demand for armed security contractors on ships. Navies will soon reduce their costly patrols or escorts, and continue to advise the shipping industry to take on the costs of securing their own vessels.  We will still see anti-piracy operations out there, but I just don’t see it being enough to cover the kind of area we are talking about. Cost and operational scope comes to mind, and the world’s navies need private industry.  Private industry still needs the power and capabilities of those navies to come to their rescue if at a point of being overwhelmed, but still, the ocean is just too massive for the world’s navies to be every where and all at once.

     We will also see more African and Middle Eastern training opportunities for companies.  The ACOTA program is just one example, and training the various African nations who are most impacted by islamic extremists will be a big focus.  DynCorp is already training Ugandan troops before they ship out to Somalia.

     As for direct involvement, who knows?  Somalia is one of those places that absolutely needs security and stability, and it takes some serious muscle to do that.  I do not think the AU is the best force for the job, because the UN has no intention of using that army to do what it needs to do–and that is go on the offense.  Instead the AU is just sitting there and dying, while Al Shabab and others are attacking them daily. What a waste of manpower and equipment.

     I also think that it is interesting that Saudi Arabia has depended upon the company Vinnell Arabia for training up the SANG all these years, and that if Yemen turns into an ‘Afghanistan’ in the region, Saudi forces will have their hands full with dealing with terrorists pouring over the borders.  Some of that high dollar training they have been getting from Vinnell will be quite handy.

     For places like Somalia though, I say either send in a professional state sponsored army, or contract with a private military company, and give them the mission to clear and hold Somalia.(bring in contractors and the like for the build portion) And if a company like Executive Outcomes can be as successful as they were in places like Sierra Leon or Anglola, with the limited man power and resources they had, then I see no reason why a company today could not produce the same results if they followed the EO model.

     A company like Xe could put together a force that would absolutely be capable and willing to do a job like this. And now that the US government has made it clear that it fully supports and embraces the capabilities of companies like Xe for work in war zones, then I just don’t see how they are not good enough for stopping the Al Shabab in Somalia, or for battling extremists in Yemen?

     Or we can watch as those countries fall to extremists, and the neighbors to these countries pay the price.  Worse yet, terrorists from these sanctuaries span out even further into the west to conduct martyrdom missions and kill innocent people. –Matt

Is Yemen the Next Afghanistan?

New al-Qaida threat: Somali group claims blasts

Who is al-Shabab? Somali terror army extends reach

Nigerian sect leader praises al Qaeda, warns US

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Is Yemen the Next Afghanistan?

By ROBERT F. WORTH

July 6, 2010

Just before dawn on Dec. 24, an American cruise missile soared high over the southern coast of the Arabian peninsula, arced down toward the dark mountains above the Rafadh Valley in Yemen’s Shabwa province and found its mark, crashing into a small stone house on a hillside where five young men were sleeping. Half a mile away, a 27-year-old Yemeni tribesman named Ali Muhammad Ahmed was awakened by the sound. Stumbling out of bed, he quickly dressed, slung his AK-47 over his shoulder and climbed down a footpath to the valley that shelters his village, two hours from the nearest paved road. He already sensed what had happened. A week earlier, an American airstrike killed dozens of people in a neighboring province as part of an expanded campaign against Al Qaeda militants. (Although the U.S. military has acknowledged playing a role in the airstrikes, it has never publicly confirmed that it fired the missiles.)

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Monday, February 15, 2010

Maritime Security: Defending Ships From Pirates ‘Slightly Smacks Of Vigilantism’, What?

     Small, fast boats with a handful of armed mariners are an “emerging way to handle the [piracy] problem in a safe way,” said Jim Jorrie, CEO of Espada Logistics and Security-MENA, a San Antonio-based company offering such services.

     But shipping industry experts frown on the practice.

     “It slightly smacks of vigilantism to me,” said Tony Mason, secretary general of the International Chamber of Shipping and International Shipping Federation. 

*****

   Yet again, who the hell does this Tony Mason dude think he is? This kind of leadership and commentary, is exactly what has made the piracy problem flourish in the first place. Where is the mention of the right to self defense?  Or does Tony not care about this basic human right on the high seas? This attitude just kills me, and it is guys like this that keep promoting it.

   If a company wants to protect it’s boat and people from armed pirates, then they should have every right in the world to do so.  If they want to put armed guys on a boat, or hire out the Yemeni Coast Guard to protect their goods and people, then so be it.

   And where does Mason get off on calling this Vigilantism?  What a terrible choice of words, and it is this attitude that got the shipping industry into the trouble it is in today.  You have pirates who are applying a business model that works, and is only empowering them to do more, and you have a shipping industry that would much rather roll the dice with pirates, or just pay the ransom.  It is this attitude of ‘non-action’, which is allowing this vile practice of piracy to flourish. Pffft. I call arming the boats self-defense, and certainly the right of all companies that care about the lives of their people.

   The other point that I wanted to mention, is the Yemeni Coast Guard and the Tanzanian Navy both being hired by shipping corporations, is pretty wild.  Talk about pre-Westphalia. lol –Matt

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Hired guns secure ships, stir controversy

By Sandra Jontz, Stars and StripesEuropean edition, Monday, February 15, 2010

NAPLES, Italy — As the world struggles to stop piracy in the waters off the coast of Africa and the Middle East, several companies have stepped forward to provide armed escort boats for commercial ships.

Small, fast boats with a handful of armed mariners are an “emerging way to handle the [piracy] problem in a safe way,” said Jim Jorrie, CEO of Espada Logistics and Security-MENA, a San Antonio-based company offering such services.

But shipping industry experts frown on the practice.

“It slightly smacks of vigilantism to me,” said Tony Mason, secretary general of the International Chamber of Shipping and International Shipping Federation.

(more…)

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