We’ll see how it goes. I think it is important to note our continuing work, which continues to be ignored by the main stream media, and that we will be impacted by the drawdown as well. Supplies will still need to be brought in to the camps, and even more security contractors will be needed to haul equipment out along with those standard logistics runs. And as U.S. troops are shuffled around, the civilian camp security elements will become more important to ‘buffer’ these movements. Oh, and don’t forget the fact that all the facility maintenance is highly dependent on civilian contractors, and without these folks. These guys are really important when AC units or generators breakdown, or god forbid, any internet networks break down.
Another area I see as an uptick in work for contractors will be the oil industry in Iraq once it gets going. All of those employees and engineers will need protection, along with security for the major facilities. The Iraqis will be doing most of it, but there will still be a requirement of highly professionalized teams to protect key assets and people.
So that is my take on the whole thing, and Iraq will be a very active time for contractors during this wind down. Not to mention if the various bad guys elements in Iraq turn up the volume in attacks on the roads and camps. It is still significant that we are handing over stuff, but I think it is prudent to apply some cautious optimism to this and realize that contractors will be working hard and dying all the way to the end. –Matt
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‘Long, Hot Summer’ Ahead For U.S. Troops In Iraq
Nabil al-Jurani
July 2, 2009
Iraqis are celebrating the exit of U.S. troops from Iraqi cities. Journalist Tom Ricks says he doesn’t think life in Iraq will be that different for the American military. AP
Iraqis celebrated this week’s withdrawal of U.S. troops from Iraqi cities as a national holiday. Still, roughly 130,000 U.S. troops remain in the country.
Tom Ricks, who has written two books on the war, told NPR’s David Greene that he doesn’t think that life in Iraq will be that different for the American military.
“American troops are going to continue to fight in Iraq,” he said. “They’re going to continue to die in Iraq.”
In fact, he thinks there will be “some real fighting” this summer in the belts outside the cities where the troops will be based.
“This is not the first time the Americans have tried to transfer security responsibility to Iraqi forces. They’ve tried it several times. It has not worked several times,” Ricks reminded Greene.
“The question now is, are Iraqi forces up to the job? And the answer is: Nobody knows.”
And, Ricks says, President Obama “has broken more campaign promises on Iraq than in any other area.” He’s keeping troop levels the same and is looking at getting the troops out rather slowly.
Ricks also calls Obama’s promise to get the combat troops out “a meaningless phrase. … There are no noncombat troops in the U.S. military. There is no pacifist wing of the military.”
He says troop levels will need to remain the same through Iraqi elections next January, then the administration plans to draw them down by about 10,000 troops a month starting in March.
“That means next summer is going to be a point of maximum vulnerability,” he says. “Because you take the troops out in the beginning from the easy places, but the deeper you get, the more you have to take them out of the riskier places — or the places where the Iraqi troops are less reliable.
“So actually I think this summer will be a long, hot summer in Iraq, but 2010 will be even more difficult.”
Listen to Podcast here.