“One more thing we deeply share is the hatred of infidels,” the commander, Abu Dayib, told The Associated Press.
Some experts say the similarities are no accident.
“Al-Shabab is copying exactly whatever the Taliban was doing in the late 1990s, because they think the strategies the Taliban employed in Afghanistan were successful,” said Vahid Mujdeh, the Afghan author of a book on the Taliban. “There is no doubt that the Taliban are like heroes for al-Shabab.”
U.S. and other security officials worry about another common thread: Both the Taliban and al-Shabab have links to al-Qaida.
*****
In the past, I have highlighted successful strategies that were built upon mimicking either the enemy or whomever is the best. Not only that, but to also add one little thing to that strategy to give you the edge when fighting an opponent that is also using that same model. That little thing could be the repeating firearm, the machine gun, or the UAV. That little thing might also be an operational method, like pseudo-operations. Or it could be the Letter of Marque and the creation of an industry that profits from the destruction of an enemy? There are all sorts of potential ‘little things’ out there, and it requires a creative mind to ‘build that snowmobile’ and develop that winning strategy.
Which takes us back to Somalia. I am still having a difficult time trying to figure out how the TFG government and the AU expects to defeat Al Shabab with their current strategy? I am also scratching my head as to how the west plans on defeating Al Shabab with the current arrangement in Somalia? If we are having a tough time battling the Taliban in Afghanistan with the world’s best militaries, then what hope does the TFG and AU have in their fight?
The other thing that stood out to me, was the use of suicide assaulters again. These guys wore police uniforms, swarmed the hotel, and fought their way into areas of human concentration. Today’s defenses throughout the world, must answer the question of wether or not they can stop a swarm of suicide assaulters. This is obviously a model of attack that is being copied throughout the jihadist world, and it will only go away when it is turned into a zero sum game. Meaning, defenses are strong enough to continually defeat this kind of attack. As it stands now, this attack will probably do very well in poor countries, or countries that do not prepare for this kind of attack because of whatever reason.
My final thought about this matter is how jihadists use their market of force. Al Qaeda and others use their market of force to greater advantage than the west, and I will explain. We take retired SEALs or Green Beret’s, and give them static security/convoy/PSD jobs in this war, and we freak out if these men actually had to fire their weapons in defense of self or their client. With Al Qaeda/Taliban/Al Shabab, they will not only hire jihadist contractors to participate in the war, but also contract them to kill the infidels and conduct offensive operations. They are doing it all, from providing bounties in Pakistan for killing soldiers, to paying snipers to kill soldiers in Afghanistan or Iraq, to providing protective services for drug operations or for piracy operations.
Probably the most prolific use of contractors for offensive jihadist operations, is the whole IED game. They contract out the hole being dug, the bomb being constructed, the bomb being planted, and the guy that pulls the trigger on the device. Hell, for the sniping or bomb stuff, the jihadist contracting officer requires filming the kill in order to receive payment. That is what our enemy does with their market of force, and to me they are far more advanced in contracting private force for the task of killing their enemies than the west.
If you look at the west and how we are using our market of force, it is literally non-existent. We have not seen a company or individual contracted to kill or even capture an enemy combatant. Companies are not contracted to take down terrorist cells or take towns and cities. Individuals are not hired to hunt jihadists or do anything of harm to our enemies. Instead, we see retired special operations soldiers who were expert in tracking and killing enemy combatants in their military jobs, just sit at civilian guard posts, driving vehicles in convoys or protecting dignitaries. That stuff is important to do, but we have created an industry that does not at all take full advantage of our market of force.
We also pay these folks an incredible amount of money for doing these basic ‘defensive’ tasks. God forbid if that individual actually fired their weapon though. The possibility of that retired SF operator being sent home or fired would be high and if they accidently killed a civilian in the process of defending self or the client, they could face criminal charges. Al Qaeda and company kill and terrorize civilians with their market of force all the time, and it is just the price of doing business to them. I am not saying the we should use our market of force and not care about civilian deaths, but I do think our enemy is far more realistic about what really happens in war. They are out there and fighting us based on a no holds barred mindset (no respect for law or borders), and their market of force is considered a serious element of their strategy. I have yet to hear about a jihadist commission on wartime contracting either? lol
The west hasn’t a clue on how to use their market of force, nor are they getting a good return on investment for the force they are using. I have certainly pointed to examples of how we could use our market of force to a greater and more strategic extent, but I also realize that I am up against the ego of states and their dedication to the monopoly of force.
Let’s flip this around and mix the players. If Al Qaeda could contract the services of Xe, what do you think they would ask of Xe? What do you think they would be ‘ok with’, or what would be politically correct for Al Qaeda? I think we all know that AQ would probably ask a company like that to take on their most complex operations that require a disciplined force with skill and capability. The only limitations to the contracts would be AQ’s money, and what Xe was willing to do for that money.(in this hypothetical, they would have no loyalties to or be controlled by any state)
One example of how markets of force behave when both sides have no qualms about it’s use, is the drug cartels in Mexico. All the cartels of the drug war are all copying each other, and all of them are tapping into markets of force to do all sorts of nasty things to one another. It is producing some extreme violence and methods of warfare that we can certainly learn from. With this scenario, the Mexican government cannot even compete, and if anything, the drug cartels fear one another more than they fear the government. (as a side note, the Mexican government is not even using their market of force) It is just one example.
The pirates of Somalia are another industry that fully exploits this market of force, and they get a really good return on investment with this force. The world’s best and most powerful navies have not been able to defeat this latest wave of piracy coming out of Somalia, and it is probably one of the most embarrassing things to witness as an observer of this whole deal. Guys armed with AK’s, buzzing around in motor boats, taking down mulit-million dollar vessels, and evading multi-billion dollar navies at the same time. This market of force is very enthused by the ‘incentive’ of this industry, and the pool of this force is only increasing because of this piracy model’s success ratio.
So to finish this post, I guess all I have to say is that today’s enemies have developed a model of warfare that is a direct challenge to countries and their state sponsored armies. These enemies could care less about borders, laws, or political correctness and truly only care about winning by any means necessary. In Somalia, we are witnessing Al Shabab use this latest model of jihadist warfare which has achieved much for the Taliban in Afghanistan. This model has many elements to it which makes it successful. One of the key elements that is ignored by all who study this war, is the enemy’s use of their market of force for the destruction of their enemies. I think they are better at it, and they get more of a return on investment with their market of force than the west ever will. Stuff to think about. –Matt
Islamist rebels attack Somali hotel, killing 32
Somalia rebels looking increasingly like Taliban
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Islamist rebels attack Somali hotel, killing 32
By MOHAMED OLAD HASSAN and MALKHADIR M. MUHUMED
August 25, 2010
MOGADISHU, Somalia — Islamist militants wearing Somali military uniforms stormed a hotel favored by lawmakers in the war-battered capital Tuesday, firing indiscriminately and killing 32 people, including six parliamentarians.
A suicide bomber and one of the gunmen were also killed in the brazen attack just a half-mile (1 kilometer) from the presidential palace. The attack showed the insurgent group al-Shabab, which controls wide areas of Somalia, can penetrate even the few blocks of the capital under the control of the government and African Union troops.
Tuesday’s well-planned assault came one day after al-Shabab warned of a new “massive war.” Sheik Ali Mohamud Rage, an insurgent spokesman, said the attack by members of the group’s “special forces” targeted government leaders, foreign agents and “apostates” at the $10-a-night Muna Hotel.
Survivors of the hour-long slaughter described seeing bodies strewn throughout the hotel and people scrambling to safety through windows. An 11-year-old shoeshine boy and a woman selling tea were among the dead.
In an interview with The Associated Press, one parliamentarian said she was jolted awake by the popping sound of gunfire. Saynab Qayad said three fellow lawmakers staying on the top floor of the three-story hotel drew their guns while other guests fled out windows.
(more…)
