Feral Jundi

Friday, June 25, 2010

Military News: Admiral Mike Mullens– Debt Is Biggest Threat To U.S. National Security

     “Of the total military spending in the world, the US spends half of that, and that’s an unsustainable number,” Erik Prince, founder and chairman of Xe, told CNBC Thursday.

    “You’re going to have to turn to private sector efficiency initiatives if the US is going to be able to project power and help its friends,” –Erik Prince, June 24, 2010

*****

     Thanks to Doug for sending me this. The numbers on this are staggering.  I also think that Prince is absolutely right.  If we plan on continuing the war effort, then efficiency initiatives in this war will be a necessity.  Those efficiency initiatives come from competition and the innovation born from that competition in private industry.  The money is running out and both government and private industry will be partnering on this to find a way.

     With that said, this is another great reason for introducing methods of warfare that might be more cost effective. I talk about the concepts of incentivizing warfare here all the time.(letter of marque, privateering, bounty hunting, etc)  I personally feel that if you want to combat an out of control industry of terror, drugs, or piracy, you need an organized and violent industry that profits from their demise.

     I would also like to see an effort to make supplying the troops more cost effective. Do we have to fly or convoy fuel into Afghanistan, or can we figure out a way to either grow fuel or utilize some other energy source to power our vehicles? Do we have to ship in food, or could we grow food locally on military farms, or through co-operatives with local farmers? Do we have to use expensive jets and bombers, to provide close air support against an enemy that has no air force? Do we have to helicopter troops in, or can we drop them in by parachute?  Little changes here and there, can do wonders for reducing that million dollar price tag per soldier, per year, in a country like Afghanistan.

     Most of all, are we doing all we can to invigorate investment in Afghanistan?  Could charter cities be set up in Afghanistan, as a way to invigorate progress in that country?  How about focusing on infrastructure that supports this trillion dollars of mineral wealth? Are we creating an environment that is attractive to all investors, and not just China?

     These are all just ideas to throw around, but I really think as the belt is tightened, you will see efficiency initiatives becoming more important to the military.  They will still have a mission to accomplish, but it will be about doing more with less.  And private industry will be right there with government and the military, coming up with the better/faster/smarter/cheaper solutions necessary to get us there. –Matt

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Joint Chiefs chairman reiterates security threat of high debt

By Roxana Tiron

06/24/10

Pentagon leaders, the military services and defense contractors must work together to cut bureaucratic bloat and unnecessary programs, the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff said Thursday.

Adm. Mike Mullen also renewed his warning that the nation’s debt is the biggest threat to U.S. national security.

“I was shown the figures the other day by the comptroller of the Pentagon that said that the interest on our debt is $571 billion in 2012,” Mullen said at a breakfast hosted by The Hill. “That is, noticeably, about the size of the defense budget. It is not sustainable.”

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Somalia: Al Shabab Is Gaining Strength, TFG Corruption Causes Soldier Defections

Filed under: Africa,Al Qaeda,Somalia,Strategy — Tags: , , , , , , — Matt @ 12:34 PM

     Boy, this isn’t a pretty picture.  I have mentioned in the past on why it is important to ‘pay your soldiers’ if you want them to stick around, and this is a prime example of how important that is. Al Shabab has made some moves lately that have increased their size and hold on territory.  Not good for the TFG, and not good for the west.

     I also wanted to mention that Petraeus was the one that signed off on US military covert operations in Somalia. So if we have guys there right now, then a really excellent thing they could do to stop the bleeding is to gain a foothold on the payment and management of these Somali troops.  We spent the money to train them in Ethiopia, we can certainly watch over the payment of their services in Somalia. I compare this to our handling of the HTN contracts in Afghanistan that are causing so many headaches.  We must insure there is adult supervision with this stuff.

     Or, we should just allow the TFG to crumble, and let Al Shabab to take over….  Because as it stands right now, Al Shabab has momentum and they are closing in fast.  And as they conquer and absorb these other Islamic extremist groups, the people will see this strength and bow down to this Islamic force.  How could they not, if the TFG can’t even do the simple task of paying their troops? (and that’s after we gave them the money to pay their troops with) This is basic Governance 101.

      I guess what I am saying is that Al Shabab, and in a larger sense Al Qaeda, is on the verge of a ‘win’ in Somalia. Can we afford this, and especially with what is going on in Afghanistan, or with the victory we are claiming in Iraq? Momentum is quite a thing, and if you give an enemy ground, they will now have something to promote their effectiveness with.  Hell, if we want to give General McChrystal a way to redeem himself, I say let the ‘industrial death machine of Iraq’ have a go in Somalia? Don’t put him charge of AFRICOM, but definitely put him in charge of some kind of project he can focus his talents on. Somalia needs that kind of talent and attention, or we will lose it. –Matt

Furious Soldiers storm Villa Somalia

Hizbul-Islam vanishing into Al-Shabab

U.S. Is Said to Expand Secret Actions in Mideast

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From Strategy Page

June 25, 2010

The Transitional Government (TG) is negotiating with Hizbul Islam. This Islamic radical group is the smaller rival of al Shabaab, and less radical. The more radical members of Hizbul Islam are defecting to al Shabaab, so it makes sense that the less radical ones would try to cut a deal with the TG. Otherwise, an even smaller Hizbul Islam could be crushed by al Shabaab. Meanwhile, the TG is itself threatened with fragmentation as many members of the government strive to rearrange the deal that determines which clans get how many seats in the parliament. Somalis have a hard time compromising, and prefer to fight, which is the main reason the country is such a mess. Corruption is the other big problem. This was seen recently when hundreds of government soldiers, trained by foreign instructors, demonstrated at the presidential palace for back pay. The money had been stolen by government officials, who consider a government job as a license to steal. Donor nations have a hard time convincing officials that effective government cannot survive such attitudes.

Story here.

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Hizbul-Islam vanishing into Al-Shabab

Saturday 19 June 2010

Somaliweyn – Mohammed Omar Hussein

The warriors of Hizbul-Islam one of the adversary Islamist functions in Somalia are in their hundreds joining Al-Shabab another Islamist function in Somalia, which is also extra superior than Hizbul-Islam according the areas which each group is controlling and in terms of fighters as well.

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Thursday, June 24, 2010

Industry Talk: Erik Prince On CNBC

Cool Stuff: Paul Romer’s Charter Cities Idea….. Afghanistan?

Filed under: Afghanistan,Cool Stuff — Tags: , , , , , — Matt @ 5:52 PM

Building Snowmobiles: Human-flesh Search Warfare

     Sinnreich adds a psychological component. “A lot of us really know next to nothing about what’s really going on militarily in Afghanistan,” he says, “so when a schism like this opens up, we think, ‘There must be more to this.’ ” A “collective detection mentality” takes over, he says, and thousands of people start piecing together thousands of bits of information to get a bigger picture.

*****

     If anyone is wondering how I come up with this stuff, I will explain.  I will read about one interesting concept, store it away in my brain, and then when I hit some trip wire ideas that fit in with that prior concept, some ‘illumination’ occurs. In this case, I was reading about human-flesh search engines a week or so ago, and then the Rolling Stone atomic bomb of a story comes out, and I started putting two and two together.

   First, let’s discuss what each component is and then we can discuss how they fit together, and then finish up on how to weaponize the concept (if possible).  Because if you look at what happened here, the best general that the US had, second only to Petraeus, was effectively removed from his post, all because of what was said in an article and the flash fire effects of new media.  That is one hell of an attack if you could figure out how to reproduce it.

   The first part of the concept is the human desire to want to know.  And the tools we have available to us these days, give us the ability to ‘know’ what is going on very quickly.  The news cycle and people’s ability to get that news, and how it allows us to pass it on to the next guy is mind boggling fast.  It doesn’t combust like a fire, it explodes like a bomb, and new media/social media is the facilitator for everyone who wants to know.

   For example, when the McChrystal ‘Runaway General’ news came out, I had heard about it via Facebook, Twitter, newsletters, updates via email, and my RSS reader.  I also got the news via my iPhone, which means I did not have to wait until I got home to read all of this stuff. The news exploded, and like most, I passed that news on to my network.  I then got to work on posting a blog entry about the thing, because it was a big story.  And so did thousands of other journalists, bloggers, forum participants, etc.  So analyzing the whole thing kicked in instantly as well.

   On my RSS reader, I saw multiple blog posts coming up from all over about the story.  People analyzing and giving opinions, and everyone was reading everyone else’s stuff and trying to come up with the best conclusions.  Partly because they wanted to know the real deal, and partly because they wanted to choose the right angle on the whole thing so they would not look like an ass to their readers and friends. So not only did bloggers want to ‘know’, they wanted to be the ones that looked like they ‘knew’.  All of these bloggers, to include myself, were furiously going over the material as it came out over the internet.  Our business is to know, and believe me, we were trying to do that.

   That process of wanting to know, or what the professor up top worded as ‘collective detection mentality’ is the first part to understand here. We are human, we are competitive, and knowledge is power.  When everyone is fighting to learn and know what is going on, that process creates the informational tsunami.  That information wave can also do much to force an action and create a desired outcome for whomever originally intended to create such a thing.  If you look at how President Obama and the upper command reacted to this incident, it is startling.  This didn’t happen over the course of weeks or days.  It happened virtually overnight and a top general has been removed from power.

     The second concept to look at is the idea of human-flesh search engines.  This is a concept out of China that has equally startling results. If a person is made a target by whomever on a forum, and whatever act this target did was sufficient to bring on interest and vengeance, well then you have all the elements of a human-flesh search.  People want to ‘know’ why this target did what they did, they want to ‘know’ who they are, what they are doing, where they live, and most importantly, they want to make sure the target suffers for any wrong doing.

   It is that power of wanting to ‘know’ that fuels the crowd in sort of virtual lynch mob.  A prime example of this was the whole Jax Desmond affair here on the blog and forums.  When it came out that Jax was lying about who he was, this industry reacted to it much like how the Chinese human-flesh search engines turned out.  My readers were at first picking apart the guy’s lies, which was great, but then you could see on the forums that people wanted vengeance.  Folks were posting his address, real name, etc. and doing all they could to get back at Jax.  In their minds, he deserved everything he got, and each person out there was going to contribute to his demise. My point with this is that a crowd with the desire to ‘know’, coupled with the desire for vengeance against an individual they perceive as bad, can be quite impressive to watch and certainly damaging to the intended target. As a result, the Jax Desmond name is mud in this industry, and when the crowd decided they ‘knew’ enough to act, they quickly dispensed their justice.

      Now let’s put them together, and build a snowmobile.  Could you initiate a human-flesh search attack (HSA), that could create a desired result? I think you can, but only with a multi-faceted approach, and persistence. You must identify your target, identify the element that the crowd would like to ‘know’, and really exploit the virtual mob mentality if that target has done something that would be considered immoral. Your HSA strategy should strive to mimic other incidents that showed all the hallmarks what is mentioned in these two articles, and the examples I have provided. Most importantly, persistence is key, because you cannot say for sure if your HSA will work the first time out.  It would take a constant attack from multiple angles, to be successful. It helps to throw the match in the right places though, and that is the key.  The forest fire analogy fits well with conducting HSA.  If you can keep shooting flares into pockets of unburned fuel, from across the canyon, eventually you will get one of the pockets burning and they will start the fire that you wanted to start.

   The other thing about Human-flesh Search Warfare is defending against such a thing.  Yet again, I look at the forest fire fighting analogy for the defense.  You must create fire breaks to defend crucial aspects of your forest.  Or in terms of what we are talking about here, you must protect yourself or your principle by insuring you have the appropriate defenses in place.  Having journalists from Rolling Stone hanging out with you for a couple of weeks is probably not a good idea–no buffer there.  Making wild and false claims online about your company or your personal actions, would also not be a good idea–not much buffer there either.

     But most of all, you need good intelligence that focuses on you and the enemy.  ‘Know yourself, know your enemy’ as Sun Tzu would say.  Because if you know yourself, you will know what weaknesses, immoralities, etc. that the enemy might possibly use against you in this kind of attack.  Knowing your enemy will help you to figure out their intentions towards you or folks like you, and how they like to conduct HSA. You should also stay up to date with technology and ‘knowing’ yourself. Use the same tools and resources that your enemy uses, if you want to really know what he knows. You can also try to copy your enemy’s strategy and tactics, and add one little technological or operational piece to that package to get an edge.  If your information officer, or whomever is assigned to be your virtual body guard cannot do these basic things, then you should look at firing them. Because this is something any good practitioner of strategic communications or new media should be wary of and try to understand, so they know how to best build that fire break or place the match in the right patch of fuel in the forest.

   Well, let me know what you think.  If I am missing something here, or you have something to add to this stew of ideas, I would be interested to hear what you got.(be sure to read both stories below because they are relevant to this post) –Matt

New media too speedy to outflank

China’s Cyberposse

Edit: 6/25/2010- I wanted to add one more human-flesh search warfare case to this, for further thought.  Wikileaks is an excellent example of the power of human-flesh search, and what it could do to the war effort.  Some Army Intel kid leaked the videos anonymously to Wikileaks, and that was all that was necessary to spark the human-flesh search engine. Media was linking to the videos and site, and overnight, war leaders and politicians had to deal with this.  When that came out, it exploded as well.  But if you look at Wikileaks, what was the element about it, that would attract that Army Intel kid to contribute in the first place.  That is why this is such an intriguing idea to talk about.

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New media too speedy to outflank

By John Timpane

Jun. 24, 2010

It began as a scattering of acid remarks within earshot of a Rolling Stone reporter. But – thanks in large part to Twitter, the Web, and cable news – barely two days after those remarks were disclosed, a media firestorm ended Gen. Stanley A. McChrystal’s tenure as commander of U.S. and NATO Coalition Forces in Afghanistan.

Fast, overwhelming, decisive: It’s a case study in how tightly connected 21st-century media can whip a story into a full-on tsunami, with startling consequences for individual careers and national policy.

“Rolling Stone broke the story, but it was Twitter that got the story rolling,” says Aram Sinnreich, a media professor at Rutgers University in New Brunswick, N.J. “The peer-produced social media are doing to cable-news networks what cable news did to broadcast. We’ve gone from the one-day news cycle to every hour on the hour to second by second.”

Noah Shachtman, a nonresident fellow at the Brookings Institution and a blogger at Wired magazine, says: “The fact so many of us are networked together enabled the information to spread speed-of-light fast. That turned what might have been a slower-burning flame into an instant conflagration.”

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