Friday, August 27, 2010
Thursday, August 26, 2010
War Art: Learning History Through Theater–The Great Game
Wednesday, August 25, 2010
India: India’s Maoist Menace
“We do not have the forces to move into areas occupied by the rebels,” Home Secretary Gopal K. Pillai told India’s Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses in March, according to media reports. “We have a long, bloody war ahead. It is going to be a long haul, and I see violence going to go up.” Pillai declined to comment for this story.
Home Minister Palaniappan Chidambaram told chief ministers of Maoist-hit states on July 14 that the federal government will strengthen security forces and provide better roads, schools and health care in areas where Maoists operate. Maoists have some degree of influence in 220 of the nation’s 626 districts, the government estimates.
India’s failure to defuse the conflict is another setback as it struggles to become a Western-style power. The nation must spend $1 trillion to improve living standards and infrastructure from 2012 to 2017 for its $1.2 trillion economy to grow at close to 10 percent, Prime Minister Manmohan Singh said on March 23. Growth has averaged 8.5 percent a year in the past five years.
*****
I want to thank one of my readers for sending me some scoop on the situation in India. He had sent me an article from the Economist originally, and I went into research mode due to how interesting this conflict was. This article from Bloomberg was a little better, and very extensive, so I will put this one up. Both articles cover the same subject.
The areas that I like to look at with conflicts, is the position of the insurgency and what economic forces are at play. Specifically, resources that are at stake which could significantly help out a country. Especially if that country’s success will positively help out the free world, and help to provide some balance in the global economy (China needs more competition to keep it in check). India is a democracy, and I sure would like to see it succeed as a democracy. I am no fan of Maoists and the communist game plan, and what they are doing in India and places like Nepal are troubling.
The other thing my reader mentioned, which kind of falls in line with the market of force principles I was talking about earlier, is why do we continue to send money to countries and not offer the services of PMC’s? If India does not have the manpower or COIN capability, then why are we sending money to them so they can somehow ‘re-invent the wheel’ of counter-insurgency? Why not tell them ‘hey, we will help you out, but because we do not have troops to spare, we will send PMC’s’? At least with that arrangement, the money we give to India would instead be going into the pockets of our own companies who would be assisting India in their fight against Maoists.
The best analogy I have for this, is that if you see a homeless man on the street, is it smarter to give them money, or give them an assistant who can clean them up and teach them to fend for themselves? Feed a man a fish, and you feed them for a day, teach them how to fish, and you feed them for life. So the saying goes.
We could be sending companies who can teach the latest counter-insurgency methods and strategies, or even tap into our market of force that is certainly experienced in dealing with insurgents in today’s wars. Companies could be contracted to clear, hold, and build districts that India has lost or is losing too the Maoists. The return on investment in contracting the services of a company to do this for India, would be far better than just throwing money at the ‘homeless man’. Isn’t India’s success within the free world’s best interest?
Because as it stands now, the way the west throws around aid to places like Pakistan or even India seems to never offer a good return on investment. It’s as if we are giving money to that ‘homeless man’ so he can go buy booze with it. lol Besides, wouldn’t it be nice to actually put that money back into the pockets of those who would go back the US or UK, and spend it at home? Is it better to feed them a fish, or teach these countries how to fish?
I also look at how a vibrant steel/mining industry could actually help a government to help it’s citizens. From the jobs it would produce, to the infrastructure the government can improve on, to invigorating the pride of a nation because it is actually doing well. All of this is important for a country to evolve and do well, and especially during a global recession. It does not evolve or do well, when a country is limited by an ideology that a few seem to think is the path. Might I also add that the drug cartels, al qaeda, the taliban, al shabab are all using guerrilla warfare/modern insurgency/4th gen. warfare methods (which relies on much of what Mao thought up), and certainly these groups do not have any kind of moral superiority or world wide support for their cause. I mean who supports the Maoists in India or Nepal? lol
Although I will put this out there for thought. A government, no matter it’s design, must always seem like a good idea to it’s citizenry. If it is thought of as corrupt or ineffective, or they are not able to show progress and true security for the people, then they will be fighting an insurgency (whatever that might be) that will only increase in size and influence, and possibly become victorious. –Matt
—————————————————————–
By Mehul Srivastava
Jul 29, 2010
Armed rebels hold the Red Corridor, a region the size of Portugal, in their grip. The nation’s mineral wealth and 8.5 percent annual growth are at stake.
At the heart of the Bailadila Hills in central India lie 1.1 billion tons of raw ore so pure and plentiful that half a century after miners first hacked at it with pickaxes, it remains the richest, and one of the largest, iron deposits on the planet.
Essar Steel Ltd. built a plant near the hills in 2005 to turn the ore into a liquid. The Mumbai-based company, controlled by billionaire brothers Ravi and Shashi Ruia, added a 267- kilometer pipeline to pump the slurry to the east coast, where Essar makes steel.
Yet on this quiet June day, cobwebs hang on rusted pipes in the all-but-abandoned facility, Bloomberg Markets magazine reports in its September 2010 issue. Caretakers prepare to switch truck-size rock crushers out of their coma, rousing the machines for five minutes a month to ensure they still work.
Maoist rebels from the surrounding Dandakaranya forest armed with guns and explosives — and some wielding axes and bows and arrows — attacked the facility four times in little more than a year, officials at the now-mothballed plant say. They burned 54 trucks waiting at factory gates in April 2008 and damaged part of the slurry pipeline, the world’s second longest, in June 2009. Essar idled the plant that month.
Afghanistan: The PSC’s Connected To Karzai’s Family And Close Associates
Government leaders are closely linked to ownership of some of the major Afghan-owned security companies, an investigation by The Killid Group has revealed.
President Hamed Karzai has openly accused the companies of thefts, murders, kidnappings and cooperating with the enemy.
The investigation indicates that over 5,000 armed men have been working with security groups belonging to the president’s family members or people close to him.
*****
This was a great post and I wanted to share this with ‘all my friends’. (Please feel free to pass this around) So if Crazy Karzai wants to ban PSC’s, then that would mean he…. would….. have…. to…… screw over at least 5,000 contractors of PSC’s that are personally connected to the family or friends. Or will his decree only apply to companies that are not connected to the family or friends? lol –Matt
——————————————————————
Top Leaders Tied to Security Companies
by Malyar Sadeq Azad
Saturday, 21 August 2010
Government leaders are closely linked to ownership of some of the major Afghan-owned security companies, an investigation by The Killid Group has revealed.
President Hamed Karzai has openly accused the companies of thefts, murders, kidnappings and cooperating with the enemy.
The investigation indicates that over 5,000 armed men have been working with security groups belonging to the president’s family members or people close to him.
We also learned that some members of the Northern Alliance, who initially started security companies, have moved into the logistics business – they pay security companies smaller sums to guard their convoys. Interviews with senior officials of six of the biggest companies confirm that the companies belong to such power-brokers.
President Karzai’s statements, we discovered, have had an impact on them – creating a rift between the owners. Some have stepped back and seemingly will end their activities; others have scoffed at the president’s remarks and believe he will be unable to shut down the firms.
Companies connected to President Karzai’s family and close associates
ASIA SECURITY GROUP
This company has belonged to the president’s cousin, Hashmat Karzai, son of Khalil Khan Karzai. Both brothers – Hashmat and Hekmat – are close to President Karzai.
Asia Security Group (ASG), based in Sherpur, Kabul, operates with hundreds of guards, and sources in the security business say it has contracts to escort the coalition forces’ supply convoys to the south.
Somalia: Al Shabab Using Taliban Playbook And Market Of Force To Kick Off ‘Massive War’
“One more thing we deeply share is the hatred of infidels,” the commander, Abu Dayib, told The Associated Press.
Some experts say the similarities are no accident.
“Al-Shabab is copying exactly whatever the Taliban was doing in the late 1990s, because they think the strategies the Taliban employed in Afghanistan were successful,” said Vahid Mujdeh, the Afghan author of a book on the Taliban. “There is no doubt that the Taliban are like heroes for al-Shabab.”
U.S. and other security officials worry about another common thread: Both the Taliban and al-Shabab have links to al-Qaida.
*****
In the past, I have highlighted successful strategies that were built upon mimicking either the enemy or whomever is the best. Not only that, but to also add one little thing to that strategy to give you the edge when fighting an opponent that is also using that same model. That little thing could be the repeating firearm, the machine gun, or the UAV. That little thing might also be an operational method, like pseudo-operations. Or it could be the Letter of Marque and the creation of an industry that profits from the destruction of an enemy? There are all sorts of potential ‘little things’ out there, and it requires a creative mind to ‘build that snowmobile’ and develop that winning strategy.
Which takes us back to Somalia. I am still having a difficult time trying to figure out how the TFG government and the AU expects to defeat Al Shabab with their current strategy? I am also scratching my head as to how the west plans on defeating Al Shabab with the current arrangement in Somalia? If we are having a tough time battling the Taliban in Afghanistan with the world’s best militaries, then what hope does the TFG and AU have in their fight?
The other thing that stood out to me, was the use of suicide assaulters again. These guys wore police uniforms, swarmed the hotel, and fought their way into areas of human concentration. Today’s defenses throughout the world, must answer the question of wether or not they can stop a swarm of suicide assaulters. This is obviously a model of attack that is being copied throughout the jihadist world, and it will only go away when it is turned into a zero sum game. Meaning, defenses are strong enough to continually defeat this kind of attack. As it stands now, this attack will probably do very well in poor countries, or countries that do not prepare for this kind of attack because of whatever reason.
My final thought about this matter is how jihadists use their market of force. Al Qaeda and others use their market of force to greater advantage than the west, and I will explain. We take retired SEALs or Green Beret’s, and give them static security/convoy/PSD jobs in this war, and we freak out if these men actually had to fire their weapons in defense of self or their client. With Al Qaeda/Taliban/Al Shabab, they will not only hire jihadist contractors to participate in the war, but also contract them to kill the infidels and conduct offensive operations. They are doing it all, from providing bounties in Pakistan for killing soldiers, to paying snipers to kill soldiers in Afghanistan or Iraq, to providing protective services for drug operations or for piracy operations.
Probably the most prolific use of contractors for offensive jihadist operations, is the whole IED game. They contract out the hole being dug, the bomb being constructed, the bomb being planted, and the guy that pulls the trigger on the device. Hell, for the sniping or bomb stuff, the jihadist contracting officer requires filming the kill in order to receive payment. That is what our enemy does with their market of force, and to me they are far more advanced in contracting private force for the task of killing their enemies than the west.
If you look at the west and how we are using our market of force, it is literally non-existent. We have not seen a company or individual contracted to kill or even capture an enemy combatant. Companies are not contracted to take down terrorist cells or take towns and cities. Individuals are not hired to hunt jihadists or do anything of harm to our enemies. Instead, we see retired special operations soldiers who were expert in tracking and killing enemy combatants in their military jobs, just sit at civilian guard posts, driving vehicles in convoys or protecting dignitaries. That stuff is important to do, but we have created an industry that does not at all take full advantage of our market of force.
We also pay these folks an incredible amount of money for doing these basic ‘defensive’ tasks. God forbid if that individual actually fired their weapon though. The possibility of that retired SF operator being sent home or fired would be high and if they accidently killed a civilian in the process of defending self or the client, they could face criminal charges. Al Qaeda and company kill and terrorize civilians with their market of force all the time, and it is just the price of doing business to them. I am not saying the we should use our market of force and not care about civilian deaths, but I do think our enemy is far more realistic about what really happens in war. They are out there and fighting us based on a no holds barred mindset (no respect for law or borders), and their market of force is considered a serious element of their strategy. I have yet to hear about a jihadist commission on wartime contracting either? lol
The west hasn’t a clue on how to use their market of force, nor are they getting a good return on investment for the force they are using. I have certainly pointed to examples of how we could use our market of force to a greater and more strategic extent, but I also realize that I am up against the ego of states and their dedication to the monopoly of force.
Let’s flip this around and mix the players. If Al Qaeda could contract the services of Xe, what do you think they would ask of Xe? What do you think they would be ‘ok with’, or what would be politically correct for Al Qaeda? I think we all know that AQ would probably ask a company like that to take on their most complex operations that require a disciplined force with skill and capability. The only limitations to the contracts would be AQ’s money, and what Xe was willing to do for that money.(in this hypothetical, they would have no loyalties to or be controlled by any state)
One example of how markets of force behave when both sides have no qualms about it’s use, is the drug cartels in Mexico. All the cartels of the drug war are all copying each other, and all of them are tapping into markets of force to do all sorts of nasty things to one another. It is producing some extreme violence and methods of warfare that we can certainly learn from. With this scenario, the Mexican government cannot even compete, and if anything, the drug cartels fear one another more than they fear the government. (as a side note, the Mexican government is not even using their market of force) It is just one example.
The pirates of Somalia are another industry that fully exploits this market of force, and they get a really good return on investment with this force. The world’s best and most powerful navies have not been able to defeat this latest wave of piracy coming out of Somalia, and it is probably one of the most embarrassing things to witness as an observer of this whole deal. Guys armed with AK’s, buzzing around in motor boats, taking down mulit-million dollar vessels, and evading multi-billion dollar navies at the same time. This market of force is very enthused by the ‘incentive’ of this industry, and the pool of this force is only increasing because of this piracy model’s success ratio.
So to finish this post, I guess all I have to say is that today’s enemies have developed a model of warfare that is a direct challenge to countries and their state sponsored armies. These enemies could care less about borders, laws, or political correctness and truly only care about winning by any means necessary. In Somalia, we are witnessing Al Shabab use this latest model of jihadist warfare which has achieved much for the Taliban in Afghanistan. This model has many elements to it which makes it successful. One of the key elements that is ignored by all who study this war, is the enemy’s use of their market of force for the destruction of their enemies. I think they are better at it, and they get more of a return on investment with their market of force than the west ever will. Stuff to think about. –Matt
Islamist rebels attack Somali hotel, killing 32
Somalia rebels looking increasingly like Taliban
—————————————————————–
Islamist rebels attack Somali hotel, killing 32
By MOHAMED OLAD HASSAN and MALKHADIR M. MUHUMED
August 25, 2010
MOGADISHU, Somalia — Islamist militants wearing Somali military uniforms stormed a hotel favored by lawmakers in the war-battered capital Tuesday, firing indiscriminately and killing 32 people, including six parliamentarians.
A suicide bomber and one of the gunmen were also killed in the brazen attack just a half-mile (1 kilometer) from the presidential palace. The attack showed the insurgent group al-Shabab, which controls wide areas of Somalia, can penetrate even the few blocks of the capital under the control of the government and African Union troops.
Tuesday’s well-planned assault came one day after al-Shabab warned of a new “massive war.” Sheik Ali Mohamud Rage, an insurgent spokesman, said the attack by members of the group’s “special forces” targeted government leaders, foreign agents and “apostates” at the $10-a-night Muna Hotel.
Survivors of the hour-long slaughter described seeing bodies strewn throughout the hotel and people scrambling to safety through windows. An 11-year-old shoeshine boy and a woman selling tea were among the dead.
In an interview with The Associated Press, one parliamentarian said she was jolted awake by the popping sound of gunfire. Saynab Qayad said three fellow lawmakers staying on the top floor of the three-story hotel drew their guns while other guests fled out windows.