Feral Jundi

Monday, February 21, 2011

Libya: Reports Of Gaddafi Using Mercenaries To Quell Uprising

     Interesting, but this is not very solid yet. I have been trying to find any information I could about Gaddafi’s supposed use of mercenaries to quell the current uprising there, and this is what I have found so far.  Although this is hard to verify because there is a media block there, and Gaddafi has shut down the internet in his country.

    I do know that guys like this have lots of money because of all the oil and foreign investment. There are reports of part of his military defecting because they are being ordered to attack the protestors. I don’t blame them for leaving and I wouldn’t want to bomb my own countrymen either.  Which both points bring up the question of mercenaries as a possible solution for the dictator.  Would Gaddafi hire thugs from outside of his country to do this dirty work?

     Also, it would be easy for people to confuse the evacuations of expats and oil workers with some kind of mercenary invasion force.  These PSCs are landing at airports to simple provide a secure transport for folks to get out.  From what I gather, companies like SOS International will be involved in evacuations in Libya, similar to what they did in Egypt.

    Finally, Libya is important to watch because it is an OPEC nation.  If oil workers are being evacuated, then oil facilities could be shut down or in danger of being attacked.  Not good and this will impact the oil markets.  And if Saudi Arabia fires up as another domino in this string of uprising dominoes, then stand by for a major shock to the oil market. This will only get more interesting and complex as this fire continues to rage.-Matt

Edit: 02/23/2011 – Check out the comments below. I have posted some really interesting stories that have elaborated on the history of mercenary usage in the middle east, and especially Libya. I will continue to dump stories that are relevant in the comments.

U.S. struggles with little leverage to restrain Libyan government

By Mary Beth Sheridan and Scott WilsonMonday, February 21, 2011

…..Libya’s deputy ambassador to the United Nations, who broke with Gaddafi on Monday, urged the international community to impose a no-fly zone over the country to prevent mercenaries and arms from reaching the government. But no other major power echoed the call.

Link to quote here.

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Libya ‘uses mercenaries’ to keep order on streets as 200 die in violent clashes

20th February 2011

….Security sources suggested the leader has hired foot soldiers from neighbouring states to maintain law and order.

Marc Ginsburg, former U.S. ambassador to Morocco told CNN: ‘First and foremost he (Gaddafi) has security support from Sudan and Pakistan and his intelligence advisers have received significant intelligence support from former KGB officials who were part of the Eastern Bloc countries such as Bulgaria, Romania and Belarus.’

Link for quote here.

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Gaddafi recruits “African mercenaries” to quell protests

Saturday, 19 February 2011

Libya recruited hundreds of mercenaries from Sub-Saharan Africa to help quell a popular uprising that is threatening to unseat veteran leader Muammar Gaddafi after more than 41 years in office, witness told Al Arabiya from the eastern city of Benghazi on Sunday.The witnesses said protesters in Benghazi caught some “African mercenaries” who spoke French and who admitted that they were ordered by Muammar Gaddafi’s son, Khamis Gaddafi, to fire live ammunition at demonstrators.

The witnesses, who refused to be named for security reasons, added that they saw four airplanes carrying “African mercenaries” land in Benina International Airport near the city of Benghazi, the second largest city in the country. (more…)

Medical: ‘Experts’…. Look At Civilians Hurt Supporting War

     The most prevalent diagnoses for civilians were musculoskeletal/spine injuries (19 percent), combat-related injuries (14 percent) and circulatory disorders (13 percent). Among members of the military, the most common diagnoses were musculoskeletal (31 percent, 6.4 percent of them considered war-related), combat (14 percent) and psychiatric (9 percent).

     Cohen noted that civilians with psychiatric diagnoses were significantly more likely to return to duty (16 percent, versus 9 percent for soldiers). “Despite the military’s emphasis on screening and early treatment for psychiatric disorders, they still take a much greater toll on military personnel than nonmilitary personnel,” said Cohen, who is also director of Chronic Pain Research at Walter Reed Army Medical Center.

 

    After looking through this, I had some objections with the study. It is lumping in civil servants or federal employees with non-federal employees or civilian contractors.  The reason why I disagree with this combination is that federal employees would have different motivations and different compensations than civilian contractors. It would have been better to completely separate the two.

    Dr. Cohen said this as well–‘Civilians, who often work in security and transportation jobs, are less likely to be in the line of fire and don’t expect to be injured in combat‘. I absolutely disagree with this statement and I am not sure how he came to this conclusion?  Even the KBR truck drivers that were hired to work in Iraq at this specific time line of the study (2004 to 2007) would have had to have known through the news and through word of mouth, that they were signing up for a very dangerous contract in an active war zone.

    The security contractors that worked at that time, and especially in Iraq, all considered the idea of being ‘injured’ or killed in combat every day they worked there.  How could a person in this position not consider this?

    This study also highlights some strengths and weaknesses of the contracting model in war zones, as it pertains to the medical side of things.  It shows how contractors view their job as a profession that will help to feed their family and pay the bills. The study makes no mention of that contractor’s patriotism or their desire to be with the team. The various motivations for them to continue going back to that war zone is varied, and this study does not differentiate. This study also represents a very dangerous time period to be a contractor, and a key time period of the development of the industry.

    On the other hand, the study pointed out that after civilians were wounded from ‘combat related’ injuries, they were more likely not to return.  Is that because they lost heart for the work or is that because the injury was debilitating enough to where they could not go back? Does the study make any mention of how many incidents that an individual had been through, both in their military history and contractor history?  Or how many of these folks have returned back to work after such incidents, but years later. This is happening in this industry, and the contracting model allows individuals to do this, dependent upon their resume and vetting.

    The other interesting statistic was this one. ‘Cohen noted that civilians with psychiatric diagnoses were significantly more likely to return to duty (16 percent, versus 9 percent for soldiers).’  This statistic needs to be clarified. How many of these folks that were questioned, were military veterans or police veterans that had carried their mental issues with them into their contract? Or what kind of diagnosis is given for each individual questioned, and was it related to combat and the war, or were these psychiatric issues a carry over from something else going on in their lives?

    With that said, the drive for a contractor with mental problems to continue working to feed their family and pay the bills, might be stronger than seeking help and not working.  At this time period of the study, a secret clearance was not mandatory. But there was the infamous CRC that many contractors had to cycle through at that time, and the military was tasked with medically screening folks.  At the bases that conducted this screening, contractor’s medical backgrounds were reviewed.

    Even with these screening processes, contractors still slip through.  Danny Fitzsimons is just one case of a contractor with mental issues making it through the system. There is also the peer review or on the ground management of teams that helps to screen folks as well. If there is an individual that is mentally unstable, they will be identified and removed from contract due to their liability. Everyone has to be a little crazy to do this work, but no one wants to depend their survival on some dude that is mentally gone.

     The high musculoskeletal/spine injuries statistic is the one statistic that was intriguing to me.  With the use of body armor and how heavy it is, as well as the hours of standing around or driving around wearing it, this can have adverse effects on the body.  Even though the armor can save a life, it still can injury a person just because of it’s weight. This is a problem for the military, and for contractors, and back injuries and the pain medications required to deal with those injuries will become very common place as contractors and military continuously work in war zones and wear this stuff. Armor is a paradox of sorts, and not to mention it’s limitations on the mobility of a war fighter. It may save your life, but it will also allow enemy combatants to out run you and give them a chance to fight again.

     Now what would be an interesting study is to pick up where they left off and see how things look now(2007 to 2011)?  A lot has happened since then.  If the study was better targeted and consultants outside of the medical group were asked to help guide the process, then that would be a more thorough and respected study. People will support what they help to create…. –Matt

Experts look at civilians hurt supporting war

February 21, 2011By Stephanie DesmonAfter analyzing data on 2,155 private contractors, diplomats and other civilians supporting war efforts in Iraq and Afghanistan who were medically evacuated from combat zones, researchers have found that such civilians are more likely to be evacuated for noncombat-related injuries but more likely to return to work in-country after treatment for these conditions.

Still, the findings of the Johns Hopkins–led research team, published online in CMAJ, the journal of the Canadian Medical Association, note that 75 percent of the nonmilitary group medically evacuated from the war zones to Landstuhl Regional Medical Center in Germany between 2004 and 2007 did not return to the field.

(more…)

Thursday, February 17, 2011

Cool Stuff: Predictions On Mideast Revolution–Economist Vs. Paddy Power

     Well, according to the Shoe-Thrower’s index Yemen is high on the list.  Of course this is not as current as the Paddy Power prediction, which indicates Bahrain as the next to go.  But Yemen is still a close second.

    Also, if guys have radically different odds from a different source, please feel free to post those with a link in the comments section. –Matt

Edit: 02/20/2010- It looks like Paddy Power took it down.  Although I will leave up the odds from that date, just for reference.

Edit: 02/22/2011- Intrade now offers contracts on who will fall next. Check it out here. Libya and Bahrain are very active.

The Shoe-Thrower’s index

Feb 9th 2011

An index of unrest in the Arab world

IN THIS week’s print edition we ran a table showing a number of indicators for members of the Arab League. By adding a few more and ascribing different weights to them we have come up with the Shoe-Thrower’s index, which aims to predict where the scent of jasmine may spread next. Some factors are hard to put a number on and are therefore discounted. For instance, dissent is harder in countries with a very repressive secret police (like Libya). The data on unemployment were too spotty to be comparable and so this important factor is discounted too. We took out the Comoros and Djibouti, which do not have a great deal in common with the rest of the group, and removed the Palestinian territories, Sudan and Somalia for lack of data. The chart below is the result of ascribing a weighting of 35% for the share of the population that is under 25; 15% for the number of years the government has been in power; 15% for both corruption and lack of democracy as measured by existing indices; 10% for GDP per person; 5% for an index of censorship and 5% for the absolute number of people younger than 25. Jordan comes out surprisingly low on the chart, which suggests the weighting might need to be tweaked. Post suggestions in the comments below and we will refine it.

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Paddy Power odds (as of Feb 17, 2011)

Next Leader To Step Down

Applies to the next country from the below list to have a prime minister/president/monarch/state leader step down due to public protests,

Must be reported by Sky News,

PP decision is final in settlement. (amount won if you bet $2)

Bahrain 3/1               $8

Yemen 7/2                   9

Jordan 7/2                   9

Morocco 5/1               12

Algeria 6/1                 14

Libya 7/1                    16

Iran 12/1                    26

Iraq 16/1                    34

Sudan 16/1                 34

Saudi Arabia 20/1    42

Syria 20/1                  42

(more…)

Publications: From Dictatorship To Democracy, By Gene Sharp

From Dictatorship to Democracy, By Gene Sharp

Strategy: The Father Of Strategic Nonviolent Action Gene Sharp, And Mideast Revolution

     For to win one hundred victories in one hundred battles is not the acme of skill. To subdue the enemy without fighting is the acme of skill. -Sun Tzu 

     Based on studies of revolutionaries like Gandhi, nonviolent uprisings, civil rights struggles, economic boycotts and the like, he has concluded that advancing freedom takes careful strategy and meticulous planning, advice that Ms. Ziada said resonated among youth leaders in Egypt. Peaceful protest is best, he says — not for any moral reason, but because violence provokes autocrats to crack down. “If you fight with violence,” Mr. Sharp said, “you are fighting with your enemy’s best weapon, and you may be a brave but dead hero.”

     Interesting story and it just reaffirms the view I had that it wasn’t gadgets like Facebook or Twitter that won the day, but just good ol fashion kick ass strategy and planning. I also like the quote up top because it also reinforces the strategy that Boyd talked about by isolating your enemy ‘morally, mentally, and physically’.  With protest, if you decide to go violent and use arms against a government, you have now given that government the moral right to kill you with arms.  Plus if you are killed, you cannot continue the revolution or fight.

    Although what is interesting about this is that there was talk of Mubarak’s forces using their agents as looters to make the anti-Mubarak crowds look morally illegitimate. The attack on reporters, like with Lara Logan, could have been another way of making the anti-Mubarak forces look morally illegitimate. This to me is the essence of the kind of fight going on within a riot in countries with dictators and tyrants. There is much strategy involved with such endeavors.

     Or those governments just pull the trigger, and could care less about morality. Might makes right and  being feared is better than being respected, etc….

     Either way, I wanted to put this up as food for thought.  Especially after reading that the Muslim Brotherhood was interested in these concepts of strategic nonviolent action. Of course if dictators and tyrants have it coming, they deserve what they get.  But the snakes in the grass called jihadists will benefit from these revolutions in the Middle East and elsewhere. It will create power vacuums, and they will certainly do all they can to fill that vacuum.

     Of course on the surface, the West will always try to present the idea that we support dictators and tyrants being overthrown–if it is within our national interest.  But be that as it may, the West also has a lot riding on the relationships, business and treaties it has with these people. Mubarak was an important ally in our war against jihadists, all the way up until he was overthrown.  Now we take the side of the revolutionaries and disgruntled population that overthrew him. Unfortunately this group of revolutionaries have jihadists in the wings that benefit directly, and they participate either overtly or covertly to push these revolutions along. That is why folks like the Muslim Brotherhood have copies of Gene Sharp’s manual in their possession.

     On the flip side, countries like Iran or China should be very fearful of publications like this, and to a degree, the west would benefit from this fear.  These countries have horrible human rights records, and they both military or economic threats.  Don’t forget the really horrible dictators in Africa which should equally be fearful of this current wave of revolution.  I would love to see Mugabe taken down, or any of the other nut job dictators that cause so much grief in Africa.

    Now on to the potential application for our industry.  A company that offered strategic nonviolent action training and advising services, or advising countries facing this kind of attack on government, could be an interesting business to get into.  There are models of success to emulate here, and this kind of work defines the ultimate in winning without killing or fighting.  Another way to look at this type of thing is as a tool to create the right environment for a bloodless coup/non-violent regime change. Notice how the Egyptian Army is now in charge of Egypt, and they didn’t have to fire a shot (figuratively speaking–there were deaths in this uprising).

     I do realize the history of meddling in other nation’s business and stoking revolutions–sometimes you get what you ask for. lol But what is different now is the advent of super empowered individuals, jihadists, organized crime, and nations with ill means, all being able to apply these principles to the overthrow of leaders to achieve strategic goals. Could a criminal organization like a drug cartel use these concepts in their war against governments and leaders? How about Hamas or Hezbollah using these methods to foster overthrow in their target countries (with Iranian support of course) I mean this stuff isn’t just for peaceniks. With revolutions and protest blowing up across the middle east, this stuff is very important to analyze and ultimately synthesize solutions for attacks or defenses.- Matt

From Dictatorship To Democracy, by Gene Sharp (also on my Sribd)

Shy U.S. Intellectual Created Playbook Used in a Revolution

By SHERYL GAY STOLBERG

February 16, 2011

BOSTON — Halfway around the world from Tahrir Square in Cairo, an aging American intellectual shuffles about his cluttered brick row house in a working-class neighborhood here. His name is Gene Sharp. Stoop-shouldered and white-haired at 83, he grows orchids, has yet to master the Internet and hardly seems like a dangerous man.

But for the world’s despots, his ideas can be fatal.

(more…)

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