Thursday, March 31, 2011
Funny Stuff: Pimp My Ride–Missile Pods On Libyan Rebel Trucks
Libya: The Toyota War Part 2–Gaddafi Forces Adopt Rebel Tactics
This is smart, and pure mimicry strategy at it’s finest–copy your enemy, and then add one or two things to give you an edge. In this case, the edge is training, cohesion and organization. Gaddafi has also been in this kind of war before when Libya was fighting Chad. If you remember, that war was called the Toyota War, because both sides ended up using the cheapest, most abundant and fastest vehicles they could to out maneuver the other other guy.
The other part of this that is smart is that the coalition air forces will have a tougher time distinguishing between both sides, and the potential for civilian casualties increases. Air power is great for taking on open desert military targets, but taking out these types of targets takes a lot more effort because of the potential screw ups in the matter.
The other day, Gaddafi’s forces were also able to take advantage of the weather and make a drive against a disconnected and unorganized rebel force. That shows a knowledge of the limitations of this no-fly zone, and I am sure they studied other no-fly zones like in Iraq, or the use of air power in places like Afghanistan. They identified a weakness in the hardware, and exploited it.
Which takes us back to what will continue to hurt the rebels, and that is a lack of training, cohesion and organization. The Gaddafi side is already ahead of them in this regard, and his military has the experience and lessons of the Toyota Wars to draw upon. He is also showing agility, which was highlighted by Chet over at his Fast Transients blog.
It also emphasizes the importance of the ‘people’ element of wars. You cannot depend upon hardware to win wars, and having a no-fly zone alone will not accomplish the task of regime change there. And as you can see, Gaddafi’s forces have quickly adapted to this no-fly zone and has continued to press the fight. –Matt
Libya crisis: Gaddafi forces adopt rebel tactics
30 March 2011
Ras Lanuf has now changed hands for the fourth time in three weeks. BBC world affairs editor John Simpson in Tripoli has been assessing the fighting.
Colonel Gaddafi’s forces have changed their tactics.
The Libyan army has not always been known for its efficiency or its high morale.
Now though, it has shown a remarkable degree of flexibility, and has chosen to adopt tactics used by the rebels only a few days ago, when they were sweeping along the coastal road, apparently unstoppably, in the direction of Sirte. (more…)
Wednesday, March 30, 2011
Bounties: US Offers $5 Million In Killing Of ICE Agent, Mexico Offers 10 Million Pesos
The Mexican government offered up a reward of 10 million Pesos for this deal as well, and obviously the case is going cold and they need some information to catch these guys. Hopefully this bounty will do the trick. –Matt
U.S. offers $5 million in killing of ICE agent
Two ambushed along highway, likely by a Mexican drug cartel
By Jerry Seper
March 30, 2011
The Departments of Justice, State and Homeland Security announced Wednesday a reward of up to $5 million for information leading to the arrest and conviction of the Mexican gunmen who shot and killed U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) Special Agent Jaime Zapata and wounded his partner, Victor Avila Jr. (more…)
Libya: About Those Rebels–Freelance Irhabists Join The Party And The Article ‘Destination Martyrdom’
Freelance jihadists huh? So this is what our no-fly zone is supporting? I will say that not only does Gaddafi suck, but to support the opposition is not a good idea either. I vote on staying out of the thing completely, and let the kids fight it out.
Both articles that I have posted below should definitely give anyone thinking about supporting these rebels a pause. To think that coalition pilots are providing over watch and even CAS for rebel forces that quite possibly have Al Qaeda sympathizers in their ranks or even freelance irhabists working along side is disturbing. Especially after all we have been through in this war.
And if that doesn’t get you fired up, then read the Destination Martyrdom article that Newsweek published in 2008. That many of the foreign suicide bombers in places like Iraq or Afghanistan came from Libya, and they certainly killed innocents and soldiers alike. So these are the people we are supporting? I say let both sides of this conflict destroy each other, and stay out of the way. Not to mention the costs of such operations?…..
Here is the analogy I have for Libya and all of these uprisings in the Middle East. This is a raging forest fire, and in the world of forest fire fighting, when you have a ‘gobbler’ or fire that is uncontrollable, then you stay out of it’s way and let it do it’s thing. Because to do anything to try and stop this massive force of nature would be a waste of resources and man power, and a needless risk of life. The only things you can do for gobblers is to evacuate people (which has been done in Libya), and put up a buffer around things you hope to save (which nothing has been done about the oil facilities in Libya).
The time where you fight a fire, is when you have the highest chance of success–and that is when it is small or manageable due to the terrain or weather. Or to attack when the fire or the elements that support fire, are weakest and your forces are ready and capable. That is how you deal with fire, and that is how you deal with the ‘fires’ burning in the Middle East.
Which brings me to the Saudi Arabia/OPEC question. If things blow up in the major oil producing countries, I could foresee some kind of effort to secure the oil facilities. That would be an appropriate use of military force, because those facilities are crucial to the world’s oil market stability. We can survive Libya being out for the count, but with countries like Saudi Arabia–that is the kind of thing you want to protect because those oil producing facilities are the life blood of the world.(Robert Baer mentioned the same thing in his book ‘Sleeping With The Devil‘) I would classify that as putting a buffer around the things you want to save during a raging fire. Other than that, get the hell out of the gobbler’s way. –Matt
‘Freelance jihadists’ join Libyan rebels
‘Freelance jihadists’ join Libyan rebels
Ex-al Qaeda member speaks out
By Eli Lake
March 29, 2011
A former leader of Libya’s al Qaeda affiliate says he thinks “freelance jihadists” have joined the rebel forces, as NATO’s commander told Congress on Tuesday that intelligence indicates some al Qaeda and Hezbollah terrorists are fighting Col. Moammar Gadhafi’s forces.
Former jihadist Noman Benotman, who renounced his al Qaeda affiliation in 2000, said in an interview that he estimates 1,000 jihadists are in Libya. (more…)
Tuesday, March 29, 2011
Industry Talk: In Libya, Fight Mercenaries With Mercenaries, By Dr. Deane-Peter Baker
I have received several emails and Facebook forwardings in regards to this particular op-ed, and I thought I would put it out there for folks to check out. I have never talked with Dr. Deane-Peter Baker, but he does have some credentials and a few books under his belt.
My personal view is that we should not get involved with Libya’s civil/tribal war. But going beyond opinions, I wanted to focus on the capabilities of PMC’s and if in fact they could have an impact on the ground in Libya. I think so, because like Dr. Baker presented, there is precedent for companies participating in offensive operations abroad and succeeding. The Flying Tigers and Executive Outcomes were mentioned below as companies that did such a thing, and I have my own list of folks that get an honorable mention (check my history section).
Now it has been established that companies have the potential to do this, but what is missing in the present is the legal will to do such a thing. Operations like this would require a blessing from the highest levels of government, and the license would have to give a company all the same freedoms and liberties that today’s militaries enjoy–and then some. If you want success out of a company, and you care to achieve victory in a war, you must give that company total freedom to do what it needs to do. You must also give it the assurance that they will not be turned into criminals for the warfare they wage, and this is very important.
That’s not saying that a company would want the freedom to commit atrocity and war crime. It’s just the company must know that it is legally authorized to do what it has to do in the context of the chaos and unpredictability of war. Of course that is why I keep harping on the Letter of Marque and Reprisal or similar type license that is approved and signed in blood by the highest authorities of that issuing country. Until that happens, the serious and most capable of companies will always default to the contracts that give them the happy medium of profit and legality.
Now of course a company can go off the grid and attempt to arrange a contract without anyone’s blessing. In a perfect world and free market society, this would work out just fine. But in today’s modern times, countries still rule the military and legal battlefields, and they will always exert control when it’s best interest is threatened or could be enhanced. If I had a dollar for every company that ‘wanted’ to provide a service in let’s say Somalia, and yet to be shut down or intimidated by any of the super powers or other authority… So yeah, the legal blessing is the key here. The money and everything else involved with war fighing else is just business, but the legal authority along with the moral/legal will of the issuing party, is the most valuable thing that a company could have if they wanted to go down this path. Just my two cents on the whole thing. –Matt
In Libya, fight mercenaries with mercenaries
By Deane-Peter Baker
March 29, 2011
It is time to state the glaringly obvious. Without at least some boots on the ground in support of the rebels, the conflict in Libya will in all likelihood settle into a grinding stalemate. The air cover provided by the United States and a slowly growing coalition has pegged back Col. Moammar Gadhafi’s forces, but it will take more than air cover to ensure a rebel victory. (more…)
