Feral Jundi

I wanted to put this one out there because of the recent news about Ebola and it’s spread. According to the CDC, their worst-case scenario is that we will see over 500,000 cases of Ebola infection in Africa by January of next year. This is by far a greater projection than others have given, and this should give pause. The current death toll according the WHO is 2630 people as of  last thursday.

With that said, an increase in casualties will further push the fear and panic element of this disaster. That, and with poor education and rumors being spread, horrible consequences can happen. A specific example is the killing of Ebola response workers in Guinea. Because there was a rumor within the village that these workers were the ones infecting the village, a riot ensued and these poor folks were killed with sticks and stones by an angry and fearful mob.

A couple things that come to mind when it comes to the security side of this disaster response. When people panic, they will do what they can to survive. They will either destroy that in which is a threat, or they will run away.  Fight or flight. Most will try to escape those areas that have high numbers of Ebola cases. When they see the bodies or hear on the grape vine of what is happening, they will want to leave these areas and that is a natural response.

Why is this important to note? Because those who want to leave these areas, could very well have Ebola and not even know it. They will want to survive, and they will do what they can to bypass quarantines and borders and blocking forces, all so they don’t get stuck in these virus zones. If they are fearful of aid workers or are not educated on the causes of Ebola, then fear will absolutely cloud their thinking and rationality.

Another example of the security problem vs the spread of the virus, is what happened in a slum in Liberia back in August. Police were tasked by the government to seal off a slum that had 50,000 people in it so they could contain an outbreak. You can only imagine the kind of fear and anger that these police had to deal with in such a situation?

So how do you prevent the spread of a virus like this, with a panicked population hell bent on getting away from the thing? Or how do you prevent these people from killing aid workers? Education of course. But it takes something else, which will give the aid workers comfort to do this dangerous work.

That is where private security, and of course law enforcement and military comes in. Someone has to protect these aid workers as they fight to educate locals or sift through these local populations to find infected people. Someone has to guard the quarantine centers so infected folks do not leave, or terrorists do not come in to steal infected bodies. Someone has to help secure the refugee centers or the disaster response centers?

Which brings up another issue to think about. There are many terrorist organizations out there that would love to have a biowarfare agent like Ebola. With an infected martyr, they could literally spread their weapon called Ebola wherever they wanted to spread it. This reality alone should motivate authorities to do all they can to secure the bodies or secure quarantine areas.

So you have the fight or flight mechanism in play to spread the virus, and you have the criminal/terrorist angle that can spread the virus. The answer to prevent this spread, will require security in one form or the other. And it has to happen now! And if Ebola goes airborne, because it has genetically changed through all of these infections, then securing the infected really becomes important.

I should also note that I have been getting private messages from contractors involved with the security side of stopping this disease, and all of these concerns I am talking about are front and center. My response to these folks is that private security can certainly respond to a disaster like this,  but it needs information and incentive. The quality and quantity of that private security is also dependent upon the desire to properly screen and select individuals for the contracts, and they need assurances that if they get infected while on the job, that the will get the best treatment possible for survival.  One model of success for how fast private security can respond, was the 2005 Hurricane Katrina response.

As this disaster continues to unfold, we will see how the response goes. I imagine there will be an increase in demand for security and logistical services, and I am sure this industry will answer the call. If any jobs come up, I will post them. If you are an NGO or whomever that is in need of private security, please feel free to comment below this post and I will allow you to advertise. Or I can start a new post as a Job alert. I am also watching FBO because the US just dedicated 500 million dollars and 3,000 troops to help contain this. So there is some movement and concern here. –Matt

World Health Organization website here.

Center for Disease Control and Prevention website here.

Liberian security forces back in August blockade an area around the West Point slum as the government clamps down on the movement of people to prevent the spread of the Ebola virus in the city of Monrovia.

Ebola Worst-Case Scenario Has More Than 500,000 Cases
By Caroline Chen, Brendan Greeley and Kelly Gilblom
Sep 19, 2014
The Ebola outbreak in West Africa could spread to hundreds of thousands more people by the end of January, according to an estimate under development by the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention that puts one worst-case scenario at 550,000 or more infections.
The report, scheduled to be released next week, was described by two people familiar with its contents, who asked to remain anonymous because it isn’t yet public.
The projection, which vastly outstrips previous estimates, is under review by researchers and may change. It assumes no additional aid or intervention by governments and relief agencies, which are mobilizing to contain the Ebola outbreak before it spirals further out of control in Liberia, Sierra Leone and Guinea.
“CDC is working on a dynamic modeling tool that allows for recalculations of projected Ebola cases over time,” Barbara Reynolds, a spokeswoman for the agency, said in an e-mail. “CDC expects to release this interactive tool and a description of its use soon.”
The World Health Organization said last month that the outbreak could reach 20,000 cases before being brought under control. That projection is already outdated, WHO spokesman Dan Epstein said today in a phone interview.

Steep Curve
“In the three weeks since then the numbers have doubled, so all three countries are still reporting cases on a steep upward curve,” Epstein said. “We don’t have a good idea of how big this epidemic will become.”
If the response is not increased, there may be as many as 5,000 new cases a week, he said.
The WHO’s estimates are meant to help assess international relief needs, such as how many hospital beds to build and the amount of medical supplies needed. The U.S. is currently adding personnel and money to the effort.
“It’s already the worst outbreak in history,” Tim Shenk, a spokesman for the humanitarian group Doctors Without Borders, said in a phone interview. He said the actions of the U.S. government will determine whether the growing epidemic can be contained.
“What we’ve been clear about is that we are doing everything we can do and it’s not nearly enough,” Shenk said.
Since the start of the outbreak this year, the virus has infected 5,357 people, killing 2,630, according to a Sept. 18 WHO report. The disease has spread through five West African countries, accelerating in cities, including Monrovia, the capital of Liberia.
Emergency UN Mission
The United Nations yesterday announced the creation of a special emergency mission to respond to the crisis, saying the effort needs to increase greatly.
“This is a disease outbreak that is advancing in an exponential fashion,” said David Nabarro, named special envoy to West Africa yesterday by UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-Moon. “I estimate that to get ahead of outbreak, the level of response needs to be about 20 times greater than it is at the moment.”
The U.S. is intensifying its effort, planning to deploy about 3,000 U.S. military personnel to the region to assist with shipping and distributing medical supplies and building treatment centers.
Military Arrives
Major General Darryl Williams, U.S. Army-Africa commander, arrived in Monrovia on Sept. 17 with a 12-person team to assess the situation there, Rear Admiral John Kirby, a Pentagon spokesman, said today at a press conference. That includes deciding where to build treatment sites and what else will be needed from the U.S. military.
One C-17 transport plane has already arrived, and two more are scheduled for next week, bringing 45 personnel and helping to set up a command headquarters, Kirby said.
Asked about the CDC projection, White House press secretary Josh Earnest said the U.S. commitment of $1 billion for the response to Ebola will have the effect of spurring other nations to increase their assistance.
“The projections you’re citing are long-term projections,” Earnest said. “That’s why the president was demonstrating a sense of urgency” when he spoke about the outbreak earlier this week.
Unseen Scale
Predictive models have varied as researchers struggle to estimate an outbreak on a size and scale never seen before with Ebola.
A separate worst-case scenario modeled last month by researchers at the University of Tokyo and Arizona State University predicted there would be as many as 277,124 new cases by the year’s end.
That was the high end of their estimate, though the researchers warned that “uncontrolled cross-border transmission could fuel a major epidemic to take off in new geographical areas.”
Columbia University researchers predicted 18,755 cases by Oct. 26 if the situation didn’t change, and 49,129 if intervention and containment efforts degraded.
“Our understanding of Ebola transmission dynamics is incomplete and data on the present outbreak are limited,” the researchers said.
Curbing the outbreak will require investments of $988 million over the next six months, according to an overview of needs and requirements published by the UN. About 30 percent of what’s needed has come in so far, Nabarro said earlier this week at a briefing in Geneva.
There is no cure for Ebola, which is spread by contact with the blood and bodily fluids of those infected. The disease normally is treated by keeping patients hydrated, replacing lost blood and using antibiotics to fight infections. The hope is that a patient’s immune system will fight off the aggressive attack of the virus.
Several companies and government health authorities are testing experimental treatments and vaccines against the disease.

Story here.