Feral Jundi

Saturday, February 28, 2009

Mexico: CIA and Pentagon Wonder–Could Mexico Implode?

Filed under: Mexico — Tags: , , , , , , — Matt @ 5:51 PM

   Thanks to Doug for sending this.  More bad news out of Mexico, and it is certainly alarming to hear this perspective from our military and intelligence leaders. I guess on the bright side, there will probably be opportunities for training gigs in the near future, and we have talked about that in the past on FJ. With Plan Mexico or the Merida Initiative, you can see what is included.  Training is mentioned twice, and not just for Mexico. –Matt 

The Merida Initiative will provide funding for:

    * Non-intrusive inspection equipment such as ion scanners, gamma ray scanners, X-ray vans and canine units for Mexico and Central America.

    * Technologies to improve and secure telecommunications systems that collect criminal information in Mexico.

    * Technical advice and training to strengthen the institutions of justice, case management software to track investigations through the system, new offices of citizen complaints and professional responsibility, and witness protection programs to Mexico.

    * Eight used Bell 412 EP helicopters and two Cessna 208 Caravan surveillance airplanes to Mexico.

    * Equipment, training and community action programs in Central American countries to implement anti-gang measures and expand the reach of these measures.

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No money or weapons will be provided to Mexico or Central America.

CIA And Pentagon Wonder: Could Mexico Implode?

by Tom Bowman

February 27, 2009  

Drug-related violence in Mexico is escalating at an alarming rate and threatening the government of President Felipe Calderon.

CIA and U.S. military planners now fear a worst-case scenario — that the country could implode.

The American military is quietly stepping in with more training.

It seems that every night in Mexico there are reports of drug-related violence — murders, kidnappings, armed battles with police, narco-traffickers who outgun even the Mexican army with their rocket-propelled grenades.

“Thousands [have been] murdered this year,” says retired Army Gen. Barry McCaffrey, who served as U.S. drug czar under President Clinton. He visited Mexico recently and painted a desperate picture.

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Monday, February 2, 2009

Mexico: Enhanced role Expected for U.S. in Drug Cartel Battle

Filed under: Mexico — Tags: , , — Matt @ 3:26 PM

     This little story has a lot of meat, and I want to point out the most interesting quote.

Howard Campbell, a border anthropologist and drug expert at the University of Texas at El Paso, said Mexico’s situation is different from Colombia.

“I really characterize this as a civil war, even if it’s not formally declared,” Campbell said. “We’re seeing all the casualties of a war, people murdered, people wounded, people fleeing their homes, social disintegration and chaos.

“This is more like Afghanistan than Colombia, with regional, powerful chieftains who operate with complete authority, oftentimes through graft and corruption.”  

    Mexico is more like Afghanistan, than Colombia?  Boy, this gets more interesting the more we look at this.  And it sounds like with the Merida Initiative, private contractors will be an important element to the plan, much like how we were used in Colombia.  Interesting times. –Matt  

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Enhanced role expected for U.S. in drug cartel battle

January 28, 2009

By ALFREDO CORCHADO / The Dallas Morning News

acorchado@dallasnerws.com / The Dallas Morning News

chief Alfredo Corchado is currently a Nieman fellow at Harvard University.

MEXICO CITY – Alarmed by spiraling drug violence along their shared border, U.S. and Mexican officials say they foresee an enhanced U.S. role in the battle against powerful cartels, including joint operations that could involve private American contractors or U.S. military and intelligence personnel.

The U.S. and Mexican officials say their cooperation could go beyond the current practice of “sharing intelligence.” They say that historical concerns about Mexican sovereignty may be overcome by the challenge in restoring stability to key regions, particularly along the border.

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Monday, January 12, 2009

Mexico: US Plans Border ‘Surge’ Against Any Mexican Drug Wars

Filed under: Crime,Mexico — Tags: , , , — Matt @ 3:36 PM

    A big thanks to Doug for sending me this, and this is kind of a follow up to my other post.  The thing I ask myself is what would a ‘spill over’ into this country look like, if things got worse in Mexico?  Already, drugs/people/weapons are all being smuggled across the border–through tunnels and over land.  The kind of spill over I am thinking of, is if these drug cartels feel threatened at all by the US support of Mexico in this drug war and decide to hit back.  I think in terms of what Colombia looked like at it’s worst during it’s drug war, and then I try to apply that to what this situation could look like in the present and near future for Mexico.  

   The other angle I am looking at, is the contracting opportunities if this gets worse.  Surveillance stuff and some training opportunities will be the big ones.  Maybe some aviation stuff as well.  But if we need muscle on the border, and the troops are already spread thin, would security contractors come into play?  Security contractors are already being used to help secure borders or train the border patrols of Afghanistan and Iraq, they could easily be used for the US border efforts. We are a resource that has been used in the past by the federal government for disasters, namely hurricane support, and a disaster at the border is no different. Of course that is only my opinion on the matter.-Matt

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 U.S. plans border ‘surge’ against any Mexican drug wars

By Randal C. Archibold

Thursday, January 8, 2009

The soaring level of violence in Mexico resulting from the drug wars there has led the United States to develop plans for a “surge” of civilian and perhaps even military law enforcement should the bloodshed spread across the border, Homeland Security Secretary Michael Chertoff said Wednesday.

Chertoff said the criminal activity in Mexico, which has caused more than 5,300 deaths in the last year, had long troubled American authorities. But it reached a point last summer, he said, where he ordered specific plans to confront in this country the kind of shootouts and other mayhem that in Mexico have killed members of warring drug cartels, law enforcement officials and bystanders, often not far from the border.

“We completed a contingency plan for border violence, so if we did get a significant spillover, we have a surge ? if I may use that word ? capability to bring in not only our own assets but even to work with” the Defense Department, Chertoff said in a telephone interview.

(more…)

Sunday, January 11, 2009

Mexico: Could Hamas or FARC Ideas, Inspire Mexico’s Narco-Insurgency?

Filed under: Crime,Mexico — Tags: , , , — Matt @ 3:00 PM

 

   Today I want to look at the situation across the border, and kind of look into the future of the narco war in Mexico.  Also please read General McCaffrey’s After Action Mexico Report, as a good little primer on the situation.  The question I have, is Mexico strong enough to battle these drug cartels, and how will the drug cartels treat the US as we feed the anti-drug war with Plan Merida?

    So with that in mind, let’s for a second explore the possibilities, no matter how ridiculous.  Already tunnels have been used to smuggle people, drugs, and weapons on the US/Mexican border.  Notice how this same tactic is used by Hamas in Israel?  There have also been incidents of criminals engaging with Border Patrol using automatic weapons, and operating more like military units, as opposed to thugs.  Is this not what Hamas does?  Or how about FARC?  We have a deal with Colombia called Plan Colombia, and that support is used to fight a very bloody narco war there.  Imagine if Colombia was right on our border in the US?  Would FARC have crossed the border, and made the US pay for our support of Colombia?  I am positive they would.  

   So where do all of these examples lead us?  With a determined group, they will try everything they can to survive and keep the business going.  These groups will learn from others, and will be inspired by working models of operation.  Mexico’s Narco-insurgency will learn from Hamas and they will learn from FARC, and I am sure they will learn from others, as to the best way to stop the governments of both the US and Mexico from messing with their business.

    One way that I could see these guys going, is launching rockets into the US, much like Hamas did with Israel.  Hell, the FARC even did something similar within Colombia, by using propane lob bombs or IRAM’s.  The idea being, is to piss off the larger neighbor to the north, and force the US to do something violent.  They would want US forces to come into Mexico and try to shut things down.  But once that happens, then the larger picture of Public Relations presents itself, and a US military action in Mexico would make the Mexican military and police seem even weaker and this action could piss off a lot of civilians.  At worse, even civilians could be killed in that scenario.  And if you are to study the FARC in Colombia, civilians have been killed during that narco-war, mostly by FARC, but also by accidents with government reaction to the FARC. 

   Now with an insurgency, when a smaller group attacks an occupier or an invading force, that smaller group actually becomes the good guy in some cases amongst the local populations.  The drug cartels would love for this scenario to present itself.  So if these guys could egg on the US, to become more involved, then they would be happy.  The Plan Merida, much like the Plan Colombia, is our first step in combating these narco-insurgencies.  But we also have to be prepared for some push back from the drug cartels for getting involved like this.  Will these guys start launching rockets into US cities to start a fight?  Who knows, but I do know that the drug cartels in Mexico are getting more brazen and more powerful all the time.  The Mexican government is having a hell of a time fighting this, and my big fear is that a full blown narco war in Mexico could look a lot like the one in Colombia, and that would not be a good thing for the US. –Matt 

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General McCaffrey’s After Action Mexico Report focusing on drugs and crime in Mexico.

Academic Mexico Trip Report – December 2008

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Mexico’s Narco-Insurgency 

 Hal Brands | 22 Dec 2008

World Politics Review

When Barack Obama takes office on Jan. 20, his foreign policy will almost certainly be consumed by the insurgencies in Iraq and Afghanistan. Yet Obama would do well to pay equal attention to a third ongoing insurgency, one that is currently more violent than the war in Iraq and possibly more threatening to American interests. This insurgency is raging not half a world away in the Middle East, but just across America’s southern frontier in Mexico.

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Thursday, December 25, 2008

Crime: Mexican Beauty Queen Arrested in Gun-filled Truck

Filed under: Crime,Mexico — Tags: , , , — Matt @ 12:06 PM

     Boy, the first thing I thought with this is what a shame that this woman would hang with these losers? But then the other thing to think of is the diversion this woman provided for this team.  She is famous and pretty, so the last thing any checkpoint team would expect is this woman to be with a bunch of killers. I am sure this gang thought that they could just pass right through the checkpoint. Good on the checkpoint team for using good judgement and catching these guys, despite the Beauty Queen.  –Matt

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Mexican beauty queen arrested in gun-filled truck

By ARTURO PEREZ, Associated Press Writer Arturo Perez, Associated Press Writer Wed Dec 24, 12:52 pm ET

GUADALAJARA, Mexico – A reigning Mexican beauty queen from the drug-plagued state of Sinaloa was arrested with suspected gang members in a truck filled guns and ammunition, police say.

Miss Sinaloa 2008 Laura Zuniga stared at the ground, with her flowing dark hair concealing her face, as she stood squeezed between seven alleged gunmen lined up before journalists. Soldiers wearing ski masks guarded the 23-year-old model and the suspects.

(more…)

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