This was expected. I suspect the learning curve will be especially short do to all the available information and examples for use out there. The thing to watch here is the possibility of Mexico tapping into private industry in order to deal with this threat. IEDs in Iraq and Afghanistan have created a need for specialists in the private industry, and of course those same folks will probably be called upon by Mexico through the Merida Initiative. The UAV industry will definitely be called upon for this latest phase of the drug war as well.
The second story below that ties into the whole IED thing, is cellphones.(Thanks to Matt for sending me this) Mexico is now forcing everyone that has a phone, to register their identity with the cell company/government. I am sure the cartels will find ways around this, but at least it is a start. The big one here to remember is when cartels start using cellphones for IED triggering, much like insurgents have done in Iraq or Afghanistan, that is when it will be vital to have a handle on cellphone IDs. Or at least the forensics for this stuff, as well as tracking signals.
That and tips that come in via cellphone text, can be better confirmed based on this registration. That whole ‘garbage in, garbage out’ HUMINT concept is one area that the Mexican government would probably like to clean up for their SMS strategy in their war. –Matt
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4/09/2010
AUSTIN – The Mexican military seized improvised explosive devices just miles from the Valley. The IEDs (or roadside bombs) are the same weapons terrorists use in the Middle East.
The homemade explosives can be sophisticated or crude. They’re often deadly. They’ve killed troops in Iraq and Afghanistan.
CHANNEL 5 NEWS learned the weapons are also in the hands of the drug cartels in Mexico.
On March 30, more than 50 cartel members attacked the Mexican military in Matamoros and Reynosa. Eighteen people died.
Soldiers seized 50 rifles, 60 hand grenades, and eight IEDs.
“The seizure of the IEDs is definitely worrisome,” says a Latin American tactical analyst for STRATFOR, a private intelligence agency.
CHANNEL 5 NEWS traveled to Austin to meet with the analyst. We concealed his identity for security reasons.
“The construction of the devices that we’ve seen are similar to crude devices that are being used in Afghanistan and Iraq,” he tells us.
He says the IEDs used in Matamoros and Reynosa were mining grade explosives.
“As you’re experimenting with the craft of bomb making, there’s going to be a learning curve to it,” explains the analyst.
That means cartel bomb makers are getting more advanced.
The STRATFOR analyst says, “We’ve never seen them actually construct a device up until recently.”
The Mexican military disabled an IED in Oaxaca, Mexico in February. Another IED blew up in Nuevo Leon last month.
“The blast is going to have a much larger effect than a single rifle round,” the analyst tells us.
We’re told the danger is real.
“Once again, the risk of collateral damage – being caught in the wrong place at the wrong time,” explains the STRATFOR analyst.
STRATFOR says the cartels are making more IEDs everyday. Right now, experts don’t think they’ll try to use them here in the U.S. But they’re not ruling anything out.
People who have live and work in Mexico say the IEDs are just one more thing to worry about. They tell us it already feels like they’re living in a war zone.
They say they never know if they’ll encounter a shootout or even a roadside bomb.
The people we spoke to add they’re worried about the future and what will be left behind for their children, after the cartel war.
Story here.
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Mexico may cut millions of cellphones to fight crime
Fri, Apr 9 2010
By Noel Randewich
MEXICO CITY (Reuters) – Tens of millions of Mexicans could find their cellphones disconnected this weekend if the government goes ahead with a new law meant to fight crime by forcing people to register their identities.
Advertisements on government radio and television have been urging Mexicans for weeks to register their cellphones by sending their personal details as a text message, but on Thursday 30 million lines remained unregistered as the Saturday deadline neared.
Analysts said that any related losses for Mexico’s largest wireless operator, America Movil, would be tiny relative to the company’s overall sales.
Still, America Movil, controlled by billionaire Carlos Slim, is urging senators to extend the deadline for implementing the law, passed a year ago to try to stop criminals from using cellphones for extortion and to negotiate ransoms in kidnappings.
“Close to 30 million people will be affected … many of whom depend on mobile phones as their only means of communication,” America Movil’s head of institutional relations, Guillermo Ferrer, said in emailed comments.
Most of Mexico’s 84 million mobile phones are prepaid handsets with a limited number of minutes of use that can be easily bought in stores. The phones can be topped up with more minutes through street corner vendors.
America Movil has 71 percent of Mexico’s wireless market, along with operations in Brazil, Chile and other countries in the region. Most of the rest of Mexico’s cellphone market is in the hands of Spain’s Telefonica.
Telefonica said it planned to maintain voice, short text message and data services despite the authority’s weekend deadline.
“Telecommunications are of public interest, protected by the constitution … and they can not be denied to the population,” the company said in a statement late on Thursday. About 60 percent of its 17 million clients in Mexico have submitted their information.
MOBILE EXTORTION
Mexico is plagued by organized crime, from drug trafficking to express-kidnappings of taxi passengers to force them to make cash withdrawals from automatic teller machines. Increased media reports of kidnappings in 2008 led to calls for the cellphone registry.
Critics have said the law would be ineffective because criminals can easily register phones under other people’s identities.
But telecommunications watchdog head Hector Osuna said in a radio interview on Thursday authorities planned to check the legitimacy of data people submit.
This week, senators refused requests from telephone companies to extend the deadline for a year, but discussions were ongoing and a last-minute vote could not be ruled out.
The Reforma newspaper reported that a judge refused to give Telcel an injunction to stop the deadline.
Based on average spending habits, America Movil stands to lose around $10 million in revenue per day if the 30 million unregistered lines are cut.
“We think that disconnected users would look to register their line in the short term, though there could be an inevitable loss of revenues by the mobile companies,” BBVA analyst Andres Coello wrote in a note to clients.
Itau Securities analyst Martin Lara estimated that it would take a week, on average, to reactivate lines that were cut or to acquire new lines. That would cost America Movil 0.2 percent of projected sales for 2010.
If people who depend heavily on their wireless phones for work have already registered their lines, there could be less of an effect on America Movil’s revenue.
America Movil’s ADRs were down 1.26 percent, or 64 cents, at $50.34 in late trading on the New York Stock Exchange.
Story here.