I think this is very important to discuss on FJ. A third front in this war, will definitely add a new element to the equation of security for us all. If Israel attacks Iran’s nuclear facilities, and Iran decides to retaliate by shutting down the Straits of Hormuz, then it is game on. And if Israel’s attack on the Syrian nuclear facilities late last year, are any indicator of their views on a nuclear middle east, then this latest standoff with Iran should be of concern.
My concern, on how this applies to security in Iraq, is that Quds forces will up their attacks and disruption plans there. That equates to more EFPs and IEDs and ambushes. I don’t think it will be a massive problem, because we have a strategy in place in Iraq that is already in place to deal with Quds and the militias. But I could see an increase on attacks on oil facilities and port facilities though. Iran knows that any and all attacks on oil, will hurt the US and the world. They know that in a military battle, they would lose. But in terms of economics, they can certainly hurt us by attacking oil supplies and processing. Of course an all out war is not good for Iran either. It seems that they are dealing with some economic problems as well, to include a shortage of gasoline. LOL
So my hope is that this will be solved through diplomacy, but if it does happen, we have to be ready for the consequences. –Head Jundi
A photo from Operation Praying Mantis*. This was an Iranian frigate that was attacked by the US Navy after one of our ships hit an Iranian mine in the gulf back in the eighties.
US Navy: Iran won’t be allowed to close Hormuz
By BARBARA SURK
ABU DHABI, United Arab Emirates (AP) — The U.S. Navy and its Gulf allies will not allow Iran to seal off the strategic Strait of Hormuz, the commander of U.S. naval forces in the Persian Gulf said Wednesday.
Vice Adm. Kevin Cosgriff, commander of the 5th Fleet, made the warning during talks with naval commanders of Gulf countries in the United Arab Emirates capital of Abu Dhabi. The one-day meeting was to focus on the security of the region’s maritime and trade routes and the threat of terrorism.
The 5th Fleet is based in Bahrain, across the Gulf from Iran. Cosgriff said that if Iran choked off the Strait of Hormuz, it would be “saying to the world that 40 percent of oil is now held hostage by a single country.”
“We will not allow Iran to close it,” he told reporters.
Cosgriff’s comments follow Iranian threats that it could seal off the key passageway if there is a Western attack on Tehran. But Cosgriff said that if Iran tried to choke off Hormuz, the “international community would find its voice rapidly” against Iran.
Earlier this week, Cosgriff said in Bahrain that any such action by Iran would be viewed as an act of war.
Twenty-five million barrels of oil, worth about $3 billion, pass through Hormuz every day, Cosgriff said.
Tension has been high between Iran and the West over accusations that Tehran is supporting Shiite militias in Iraq and using its nuclear program as cover for weapons development. Iran has denied both claims.
The narrow Strait of Hormuz is particularly sensitive and has been the scene of close encounters between U.S. and Iranian sailors.
In a Jan. 6 incident, five small Iranian high-speed boats charged U.S. warships and threatened to blow up the convoy. In mid-December, a U.S. ship fired a warning shot at a small Iranian boat that came too close, causing the Iranians to pull back.
Senior U.S. military officials have warned Iran about the risk of triggering an unintended conflict if its boats continue to harass American ships in the Gulf.
The British have also tangled with the Iranians in the Gulf. Last year, Iran seized 15 British sailors and marines while they were searching a merchant ship off the coast of Iraq. Iran released the Britons after almost two weeks.
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* Operation Praying Mantis was an April 18, 1988 attack by U.S. naval forces in retaliation for the Iranian mining of the Persian Gulf and the subsequent damage to an American warship.
On April 14, the guided missile frigate USS Samuel B. Roberts struck a mine while sailing in the Persian Gulf as part of Operation Earnest Will, the 1987-88 convoy missions in which U.S. warships escorted reflagged Kuwaiti oil tankers to protect them from Iranian attacks. The explosion put a 25-foot hole in the Roberts’ hull and nearly sank it. The crew saved their ship with no loss of life, and Roberts was towed to Dubai on April 16.
After the mining, U.S. Navy divers recovered other mines in the area. When the serial numbers were found to match those of mines seized along with the Iran Ajr the previous September, U.S. military officials planned a retaliatory operation against Iranian targets in the Persian Gulf.
The battle, the largest for American surface forces since World War II,sank two Iranian warships and three armed speedboats. It also marked the first surface-to-surface missile engagement in U.S. Navy history.
The attack by the U.S. helped pressure Iran to agree to a ceasefire with Iraq later that summer, ending the eight-year conflict between the Persian Gulf neighbors.