So I guess you are probably wondering, what the hell is going on in Eastern Europe? Are we seeing another Chechnya unfolding before our eyes? Who knows, but I guess the latest death toll from this conflict is 1400(unconfirmed) and this could get bloodier. I know we are trying to diffuse this, but once the the cat is out of the bag, it is kind of hard to stop these things. The timing is interesting too, with Olympics in China.
But what really interests me, is the troop movements and how that might impact our efforts in Iraq. And the private contractors that are currently in Georgia and assisting the training efforts of the Georgian military.
I have read on various forums that the contractors have been accounted for, but that is unconfirmed and things are happening fast over there. So that will be something to look out for.
The one thing that piqued my interest though, was the idea that Georgia was going to pull out 1000 troops in Iraq. Georgia has over 2000 troops in Iraq now, and are the third largest contributor of troops in Iraq. These troops that are being pulled out, will definitely impact operations elsewhere, and we will be doing some interesting troop shuffling to back fill these positions. And knowing the enemy, they will definitely take advantage. We’ll see how it goes and Georgia will be the country to watch.
I also think the energy component of this is interesting, seeing how this would be a threat to the BTC oil pipelineto Europe and the west. –Head Jundi
ANALYSIS-Georgia takes gamble with move on rebels
Fri Aug 8, 2008 10:48am EDT
By William Schomberg
LONDON, Aug 8 (Reuters) – Georgia’s bid to re-take its rebel region of South Ossetia by force is a gamble by its leader that he can still count on Western support as he tries to thwart Russian efforts to regain influence over the ex-Soviet republic.
Analysts said the escalating conflict risked far-reaching consequences for a region that has become a test of the post-Cold War balance of power as well as a key energy transit point for Europe which needs oil and gas from Asia.
Georgian President Mikheil Saakashvili was welcomed by the West as a fresh, reform-minded leader when he led a revolution in 2003 and was elected the next year, making NATO membership his priority as he tried to escape the orbit of Moscow.
But James Nixey, an analyst at the Royal Institute of International Affairs in London, said Saakashvili had worried Western capitals with his tendency to overreact when provoked.
That was shown when he used force last year to quash anti-government protesters and again now in the conflict in South Ossetia, he said.
“He is in big danger of losing the cachet he built up for himself in being pro-Western and the restraint he has often shown in the face of provocation by Russia,” Nixey said.
“If he is going to start a war, he is going to lose the support of a lot of friends in the West.”
Long-standing tensions over South Ossetia exploded on Friday when Georgia tried to assert control over the region with tanks and rockets, and Russia sent forces to repel the assault.
NO GUARANTEE OF WESTERN CAVALRY
Analysts said Saakashvili’s gamble in launching military action against the rebels could trigger a David-and-Goliath war between his country and the its powerful neighbour Russia, and it was far from certain that the West would come to his rescue.
“He has had plenty of warnings from the West that it won’t pull any chestnuts out of the fire for him so I don’t think he can count on the cavalry riding in,” said Fraser Cameron of the EU-Russia centre in Brussels.
NATO and the European Union expressed serious concern about the fighting on Friday and urged all sides to halt the violence.
But Tomas Valasek, director of foreign policy at the Centre for European Reform, said Saakashvili had little choice but to take decisive action.
He said Russia’s growing influence in South Ossetia and in another breakway region, Abkhazia, was steadily undermining Georgia’s hopes of joining the NATO military alliance and putting itself firmly in the Western camp.
“At the end of the day the Georgians realise that time is not on their side and they could not let South Ossetia and Abkhazia become even more messy and Russian influence even stronger,” he said.
Georgia’s ambition of joining NATO was put on hold three months ago when alliance members were split at a summit between supporters of accession for Georgia and Ukraine and other countries which feared such a move would antagonise Russia.
Neither country was offered a membership plan but they were told instead they would join NATO in the future.
Analyst Nixey said Saakashvili could be jeopardising his country’s chances of getting into the alliance: “Ultimately his NATO ambitions could go out of the window.”
Strategic Forecasting Inc., based in the United States, said Georgia represented “the hottest flashpoint in Western-Russian relations” as it was the easternmost foothold of Western power.
“What is being decided here is whether bordering Russia and simultaneously being a U.S. ally is a suicidal combination. Whichever way this works out, the dynamics of the entire region are about to be turned on their head,” it said in a note.
good call on talking about the new war on your webpage.
this isn't some little skirmish going on. this thing could have massive impact on the world and especially the USA.
just from what i’ve read so far on Drudge & CNN, it appears Russia planned and executed a perfect attack. they may have lost the cold war, but don’t underestimate those old commie's.
they set up georgia to attack rebels during the olympics & when governments around the world are in recess. then they just 'happened' to have several hundred tanks on the boarder, which rolled in right on queue. it doesn’t take a rocket scientist to see how the russians manipulated governments & rebel groups in that region for the last few months to set this up.
very well thought out and executed. it is a genuine pleasure to see professionals at work.
i don’t know what the end result will be, but it sure looks like russia wants georgia to control the oil pipeline from the caspian. besides securing more resources, it would be a HUGE bargaining chip in getting the US to back off its Missile Defense Shield it is determined to implement throughout East Europe.
i have no idea why America worked so hard to provoke the Russians. For the life of me, i cant see where there was anything to gain.
anyway, once again the Russians are playing chess while our country is still playing checkers. all i know is our government better wake the f*ck up or we are going to get owned.
Comment by doug — Friday, August 8, 2008 @ 7:36 AM
I found this little tidbit about Israel's interest in the region. Very interesting.
——————————–
DEBKAfile discloses Israel’s interest in the conflict from its exclusive military sources:
Jerusalem owns a strong interest in Caspian oil and gas pipelines reach the Turkish terminal port of Ceyhan, rather than the Russian network. Intense negotiations are afoot between Israel Turkey, Georgia, Turkmenistan and Azarbaijan for pipelines to reach Turkey and thence to Israel’s oil terminal at Ashkelon and on to its Red Sea port of Eilat. From there, supertankers can carry the gas and oil to the Far East through the Indian Ocean.
Aware of Moscow’s sensitivity on the oil question, Israel offered Russia a stake in the project but was rejected.
Last year, the Georgian president commissioned from private Israeli security firms several hundred military advisers, estimated at up to 1,000, to train the Georgian armed forces in commando, air, sea, armored and artillery combat tactics. They also offer instruction on military intelligence and security for the central regime. Tbilisi also purchased weapons, intelligence and electronic warfare systems from Israel.
These advisers were undoubtedly deeply involved in the Georgian army’s preparations to conquer the South Ossetian capital Friday.
In recent weeks, Moscow has repeatedly demanded that Jerusalem halt its military assistance to Georgia, finally threatening a crisis in bilateral relations. Israel responded by saying that the only assistance rendered Tbilisi was “defensive.”
This has not gone down well in the Kremlin. Therefore, as the military crisis intensifies in South Ossetia, Moscow may be expected to punish Israel for its intervention.
Comment by headjundi — Friday, August 8, 2008 @ 4:40 PM
.
"The armed conflict between Russia and Georgia deals a blow to U.S. aspirations of bringing the former Soviet republic into NATO's orbit and securing an emerging energy corridor linking Central Asia to Europe. "
"The conflict “absolutely'' dooms Georgia's chances for North Atlantic Treaty Organization membership, said Robert Hunter, U.S. ambassador to the Brussels-based alliance under President Bill Clinton and now a senior adviser at the policy- research group RAND Corp. in Washington. “You don't bring in a country that has this sort of trouble.'' "
"Hunter said flawed diplomacy was in part responsible for the clash. “This is an issue that was allowed to get out of hand by people who haven't thought through what NATO membership really means, and on the Russian side doing too much muscle flexing over a country that is a pretty small place,'' he said"
It looks like in this new war, Russia has everything to gain and nothing to lose.
We do live in interesting times.
Comment by doug — Friday, August 8, 2008 @ 7:26 PM