Feral Jundi

Sunday, April 18, 2010

Black Swan Events: Volcano Illustrates World’s Interconnectedness

   What we call here a Black Swan (and capitalize it) is an event with the following three attributes. First, it is an outlier, as it lies outside the realm of regular expectations, because nothing in the past can convincingly point to its possibility. Second, it carries an extreme impact. Third, in spite of its outlier status, human nature makes us concoct explanations for its occurrence after the fact, making it explainable and predictable. I stop and summarize the triplet: rarity, extreme impact, and retrospective (though not prospective) predictability. A small number of Black Swans explain almost everything in our world, from the success of ideas and religions, to the dynamics of historical events, to elements of our own personal lives. –Nassim Nicholas Taleb, author of The Black Swan

*****

   I have decided to add a new category that actually talks about events that have far reaching effects.  Natural disasters and war are examples, and the reason we need to talk about that here is that contractors are very much needed in order to deal with these kinds of events.  Contractor operations are also impacted by these events, and this stuff can really screw up the logistics for some global operation. As I speak, there are contractors waiting to go home who can’t, or guys in airports just waiting around for their flight.  Logistics for the wars will be impacted as well.  That is why we need to care.

   BSE (Black Swan Events) can also arise from political upheaval or coups.  A BSE could be something small like a extremely deadly virus, or something odd that changes the dynamic.  Drones could be considered BSE’s, because they are something new to warfare that is forcing everyone to rethink strategies.

   I also don’t want to get in the habit of calling everything new a BSE.(I will use Nassim’s three attributes for BSE’s) This category will be for only the big stuff, that really shakes the world.  This volcano is one of those events, much like the Haiti earthquake or the Polish leadership getting killed in a plane accident.  Thanks to Matt for giving me the heads up and cluing me in on the BSE potential. –Matt

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Volcano illustrates world’s interconnectedness

By MICHAEL TARM

April 17, 2010

CHICAGO — A volcano erupts in Iceland, and the effects ripple around the globe: A mom in Romania frets about making her son’s wedding in Texas. A florist in New York worries shipments won’t arrive. Patients awaiting treatment in Nigeria have to wait another week for the doctors.

The fallout from the ash cloud looming over Europe illustrates just how interconnected our world has become.

Thousands of planes fly millions of passengers and tons of cargo each day, providing the economic lifeblood of nations and businesses. The flights deliver products for sale or items as small as a specialized tool that lets a factory keep operating.

The planes also bring medicines to hospitals and food aid to earthquake or hurricane victims. And they bring war and peace. Soldiers are often transported to and from hot spots by air.

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Letter Of Marque: Reconsidering The Letter Of Marque–Utilizing Private Security Providers Against Piracy

   A big thanks to Cannoneer #4 for posting this in the comments of yesterday’s post on piracy. Other folks sent me the same link to this publication and I was very interested in what Theodore Richard had to say.  To say the least, I was impressed and this paper was well researched and footnoted. (as a good legal type paper should be)

   This was also published in a contract law journal, which tells me that the guy writing this believed it could survive the scrutiny of his peers.  This should be of particular interest to any legal specialists in other countries who would like a source to draw from for exploring how the LoM could help your nation.

   What surprised me is the listing of all the companies that were involved with maritime security in Somalia.  I learned a bunch, and he started out with Hart’s operations there.  Theodore talked about the various politics and financing issues that either contributed to the success or failure of these companies, and I found that to be very informative.

   The author also went over how a modern day LoM would look, and all the various uses for the LoM.  He does a great job in calling upon historical reference to support his modern day applications, and what kind of tweaking it would take to make it work.

   Probably my favorite part of the paper is the way he was able to confront the Max Weber argument, and define exactly how the LoM fits into that discussion.

   The other part of this paper that he goes over, that I continue to forget to talk about in my discussions about the LoM, is the license and bonding aspect of modern day privateering. The author uses the example of America’s modern day bail enforcement officers or ‘bounty hunters’, and discusses how this could be a model.  The point of a license is to ensure you know what you are doing, and bonding puts your money where your mouth is. In this case, a surety bond industry for privateers would be needed if the start up company did not have it’s own financing for such a thing. It would also depend upon what the congress wants, because they are the ones who issue the LoM, pay the bounties and run the Prize Courts.      Let me know what you guys think and check it out. –Matt

Edit: 5/31/2010 -David Isenberg posted a deal that discussed this paper and how the LoM could be used for today’s issues with piracy.  Check it out here.

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Reconsidering the Letter of Marque: Utilizing Private Security Providers Against Piracy

Theodore Richard

Public Contract Law Journal, Vol. 39, No. 3, pp. 411-464, Spring 2010

Abstract:

This article examines how letters of marque could be revived to effectively empower the private sector to assist governments in dealing with modern piracy. It examines Somali piracy, the development and different uses of letters of marque and privateers, the current legal framework relating to piracy, Somalia’s decade-long experience with maritime security contractors, the use of maritime contractors outside of Somalia, and addresses concerns involving private maritime security. The article concludes that unless governments provide security everywhere and all the time, the market will demand private security. Governments can effectively manage and control this security in the maritime environment without inventing a new legal scheme out of whole cloth: letters of marque can provide authorization, regulation, and accountability.

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(From the paper)

As privateering matured, privateers faced signi?cant regulations, including highly detailed and precise requirements for legal captures that were, in turn, subject to rigid enforcement in specialized prize courts.  Serious transgressions, like murder, rape, or mutiny, could result in imprisonment or death.

For example, a British privateer captain was executed for robbery constituting piracy in 1759. Improper privateer conduct resulted in the loss of the commission, the bond, and, if applicable, the prize. Thus most British and American privateers in the eighteen and nineteenth centuries were neither dishonorable nor piratical. Importantly privateers played a signi?cant role in ending piracy.

*****

 The western world’s “Golden Age of Piracy” began in 1715, following the 1713 Peace of Utrecht, which brought an end to a decade of European warfare involving all the continent’s major powers. The upsurge in piracy was caused by the unemployment of signi?cant numbers of sailors: the English navy alone discharged 54,000 sailors and privateers could no longer obtain commissions to attack European commerce. This “Golden Age of Piracy” peaked around 1720 and reached an abrupt end in 1725. More than anyone else, the man responsible for bringing this age of piracy to an end was Woodes Rogers.

  In an early example of the “revolving door” between the private and public sector employment, Rogers was a privateer before being appointed  as the Governor of Bahamas, then the pirate capital of the Americas. In order to reform this territory, Rogers dispersed the pirates of the Caribbean with privateers.

  The piracy problem during this era was solved through a combination of tactics:

(1) the British Parliament passed legislation allowing overseas piracy trials, rather than requiring suspected pirates to be brought to England;

(2) captured pirates were publicly tried and executed;

(3) pirates who turned themselves in were pardoned;

(4) naval patrols were increased;

(5) rewards or bounties were promised for the capture of pirates; and

(6) private ships were licensed to attack and capture pirates.

  Of these methods, the last is the most relevant here.

Link to paper here.

Saturday, April 17, 2010

Afghanistan: Taliban Targets U.S. Contractors Working On Projects In Afghanistan

Filed under: Afghanistan,Industry Talk — Tags: , , , , , — Matt @ 5:44 AM

   Rest in peace to all those contractors who have fallen at the hands of the Taliban.  My heart goes out to the friends and families of these heroes.

   What I also want to mention is that it sounds like what these contractors are doing, is a threat to the Taliban.  That is awesome!  These USAID implementing partners are the ones going around and dishing out the money and projects that make the government look good, and keep potential Taliban fighters busy with work.  I say double the size of the program if this is the effect it has, and give these guys what they need for success.

   I also want to highlight all the Afghan guards that have perished in the defense of these folks.  Just read all the incidents below and it is filled with Afghan security contractor KIA’s.  Perhaps it is time to supplement the security for these implementing partners with some expat security, just to make sure that security is being properly done?  Or dress up some military folks to look like civilians, and have them soup up the security for these guys?  The point is, if this current aid strategy is a threat to the Taliban, then maybe we should work a little harder on providing proper security for it? Or maybe these Afghan security forces are sufficient? Tim would probably have something to say about it. –Matt

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Taliban targets U.S. contractors working on projects in Afghanistan

By Joshua PartlowSaturday, April 17, 2010

KANDAHAR, AFGHANISTAN — The Taliban has begun regularly targeting U.S. government contractors in southern Afghanistan, stepping up use of a tactic that is rattling participating firms and could undermine development projects intended to stem the insurgency, according to U.S. officials.

Within the past month, there have been at least five attacks in Helmand and Kandahar provinces against employees of U.S. Agency for International Development contractors who are running agricultural projects, building roads, maintaining power plants and working with local officials.

The USAID “implementing partners,” as they are known, employ mainly Afghans, who are overseen by foreigners. The companies’ role is becoming increasingly important as more aid money floods into southern Afghanistan as part of a dual effort to generate goodwill and bolster the Kabul government.

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Maritime Security: Top Admiral Says Navy Can’t Sustain Level Of Operations Forever, Shipping Should Think About Armed Guards

Filed under: Maritime Security,Military News — Tags: , , , , — Matt @ 2:37 AM

    “I don’t think we can sustain the level of operation we’ve got down there forever,” said Fitzgerald.

Fitzgerald did not indicate the Navy would abandon the mission any time soon. Instead, his remarks suggest that the answer to piracy may lie elsewhere – especially if it becomes a more violent activity. He says the shipping industry should ensure it is doing everything to deter attacks, including hiring armed security guards, as well as taking other nonlethal actions to thwart pirates.

    “The maritime industry has got to make a decision about how seriously they want to take this on,” he said, in a roundtable discussion with reporters at the Pentagon this week.

***** 

    Could this be a planned strategic communications, to coincide with the Executive Order on piracy?  Because if it is, I am hearing the message loud and clear.  The Navy is getting the memo from DC that chasing pirates costs money, and Destroyers chasing after pirates armed with RPGs in little motorized rowboats is not the most cost effective or best long term solution to the problem.

   But telling the shipping industry to hire security is a solution, and that is exactly what Admiral Fitzgerald said.  So the U.S. administration signs an executive order, and the U.S. Navy is wanting to reduce their pirate hunting operations do to cost or practicality? I guess this means that the Navy will stop playing those ‘Master and Commander’ themed commercials on AFN?  lol –Matt

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Navy looks for ways other than armed patrols to fight Somali pirates

A top admiral says US Navy armed patrols can’t chase Somali pirates indefinitely. Other ways must be found to get to the source of piracy off the coast of Somalia.

By Gordon LuboldApril 16, 2010

The US Navy will be unable to continue long-term operations against pirates off the coast of Somalia, and it’s looking for other ways to solve the growing problem, according to a top admiral.

As Somali pirates continue to find attacking cargo ships in the West Indian Ocean profitable, they have become more and more aggressive, forcing the international community to send naval ships from more than a dozen countries to help patrol the vast waters off Somalia.

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Maritime Security: The Catch And Release Saga Continues–Kenya Falters On Prisoner Deal

   Thanks to Gary for sending me this.  I read this and laughed, and then I wanted to pull my hair out.  How incredibly frustrating this must be for the navies out there that continue to capture these pirates, and then let them go?  At this point, the only real options available are either to kill these pirates, or let them go back home with a full tank of gas and some food so they can come back and do it all over again.  It is the ultimate criminal venture, because there is no punishment.

    All you have to do is survive the assault on your target, and collect your pirates salary in the form of a ransom.  If the Obama administration wanted to provide some leadership in an area of this issue, squaring away the legal mechanism for dealing with these thugs would have been an excellent move. –Matt

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Diplomatic eruption over piracy aid

April 17, 2010

Kenya’s U-turn over a deal to try Somali pirate suspects is based on Nairobi’s conviction that the European Union has been slow to hand over cash promised months ago, according to people close to the situation.

Diplomatic row erupts over piracy aid payments

Kenya’s U-turn over a deal to try Somali pirate suspects is based on Nairobi”s conviction that the European Union has been slow to hand over cash promised months ago, according to people close to the situation.

The EU is now seeking a meeting with the Kenyan government to find out where it stands, and is actively looking for other countries in the region willing to undertake prosecutions. EU sources insist that Kenya has not made any formal complaints over the issue.

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