Feral Jundi

Wednesday, June 29, 2011

Quotes: Pratap Chatterjee On The Number Of Contractors Needed For Afghanistan During Drawdown

Filed under: Afghanistan,Industry Talk,Quotes — Tags: , , , , , , — Matt @ 4:00 PM

I just found this and thought I would share.  The two quotes in the article were the ones I thought were the most interesting, and if you would like to read the whole thing, by all means follow the link below.

What is cool here is Pratap has estimated a ratio of contractors to troops for this drawdown, based on the surges in Afghanistan and Iraq, and the drawdown in Iraq.  Or basically the numbers needed for the buildup or drawdown of a conflict. It would be interesting to see how well these figures hold up after all is said and done? Either way, I thought the numbers were pretty impressive.

In the article, he also mentioned how much private security has grown in Afghanistan, and I have talked about that in the past as well. He has predicted, and I agree, that DoS will have a pretty sizable requirement for security contractors there, much like for Iraq.

The other quote that I put up that was interesting, was the possible factors that could impact these numbers. That Karzai could implement the ban on private security companies under Decree 62, and install his own police force wherever. Or there could be a dramatic decrease in reconstruction.

The reconstruction stuff I do not see, because folks want a return on investment for projects they have already invested millions into.  If not, what a waste of money? Better to finish the project and then leave.

As to Karzai banning private security companies?  Well, as Pratap brought up, I think the latest attack at the Intercontinental Hotel in Kabul should change that mindset. I mean Karzai is responsible for shutting down and limiting PSC’s already. According to my readership, the MOI is sitting on approximately 45 licenses that have yet to be issued to companies so they can do their job.

So let’s think about that?  That is 45 companies that are wanting to provide security in a country where the enemy is purposely targeting civilians, and the MOI is just sitting on these licenses? The enemy is attacking hotels, supermarkets, hospitals, reconstruction sites, etc., and yet these private security assets are just wasting away….  I say let these private companies contract with private security, and let the Afghan police and military fight crime and wars. –Matt

…Using a range of 1.3 to 1.4 (based on what Afghanistan needed before the surge and Iraq needed after the drawdown), I would project that if the Obama administration draws down to 68,000 troops in Afghanistan by September 2012, they will need 88,400 contractors at the very least, but potentially as many as 95,880.

….But the one group that has seen demand explode since Obama became president is the number of private security contractors (men or women with guns), which spiked from a flat line of about 4,000 to almost 19,000 today. Given the attack on the Intercontinental in Kabul yesterday, that number seems very unlikely to drop.To be sure, there are two reasons that might change — a dramatic slowdown in reconstruction activity or if President Karzai decides to disband the private security contractors in the country as he has threatened to do in the past. –Pratap Chatterjee.

Wednesday, June 22, 2011

Legal News: Sexual Assault Is The Act Of Cowards–The Story Of Jamie Leigh Jones

Filed under: Afghanistan,Industry Talk,Iraq,Legal News — Tags: , , , , , , — Matt @ 10:12 PM

There is so much about this story that is wrong and unjust. The men who did this to Jamie, and the way KBR staff treated this woman afterwords is despicable. Sexual assault/rape is the act of cowards, and I truly hope those that are responsible will pay. For that, I totally endorse Jamie and her legal fight to seek justice.

I am also highly disappointed in the management of that camp at that time. Locking Jamie into a conex box to ‘protect her’ was a cowardly act. (Big Boy Rules?–pfffft…) It sounds like what they were really trying to do, is lock her up so it would buy that management team at that camp some time to figure out how to deal with the case. Pathetic…..

There is something severely wrong with a management team that locks up the victim, as opposed to locking up the rapists.  How many other women did these men assault, and did the management lock up those victims as well? Talk about a total failure of leadership.

For that, I certainly hope Jamie and Tracy (the other woman in this video) who were sexually assaulted or harassed in the war zones, will get the justice they deserve. These women, also define what Jundism is all about. They have the courage to do what is right, and come forward publicly about what happened to them. Any company that refuses to hire these women because they came forward with their cases against KBR, should strongly reconsider. These are the kind of brave employees or contractors you would want in your organization! –Matt

Edit: 07/08/2011- After news came out about the details of this case, and after the ruling in the courts, I would like to personally apologize to KBR and the men that were accused of rape in this deal. I have also removed the ‘Jamie Leigh Jones foundation’ from the links section. Although I still stand by my statement up top that sexual assault is the act of cowards, I also believe that lying about sexual assault is equally despicable. I truly hope that this particular case will not stop women who were truly raped and sexually assaulted, from coming forward and pursuing justice. My heart will always lean towards the true victim. In this particular post, I was only reacting to the available information.

Afghanistan: As Troops Draw Down, Security Contractors Will Fill In The Gaps

Filed under: Afghanistan,Industry Talk — Tags: , , , , , , , — Matt @ 6:16 PM

The latest news these days is the draw down in troops. It has been expected and talked about, but now it is becoming reality. I have yet to read any analysis on how the security contracting industry itself will be impacted by this draw down, so this is my attempt at such things. I believe given all of the investment into Afghanistan’s reconstruction and security, that our industry will be in high demand as the troops pull out. It will also be a dangerous time period because of security vacuums created by a lack of troops, or a lack of Afghan police/military.

Below I have posted three stories that discuss all of the foreign investment or organizations interested in reconstruction in Afghanistan. The troops might be pulling out, but these investment projects will still be there, and they will be ongoing for awhile. With that reduction in troop related security, someone is going to have to fill that security vacuum. I believe that ‘someone’ will be a combination of local security contractors, and expats.

Not to mention that the State Department mission in Afghanistan will be ongoing for awhile. So WPS is going to be a viable source of employment for security contractors in Afghanistan and elsewhere. DoS and USAID both have reconstruction projects, government mentor-ship programs and diplomatic missions to maintain as the troops draw down.  Security contractors are going to be vital to the continuation of those missions.

The other source of work that will be ongoing in Afghanistan is training police and military.  The troop draw down strategy is highly dependent upon Afghanistan’s ability to provide it’s own security and stand on it’s own.  As US troops pull out, these training missions will probably require even more contractor trainers. And let’s not forget about NATO, and their inability to provide training assets. Contractors will be an essential part of maintaining this aspect of the strategy.

Then of course there are the foreign investments in mining in Afghanistan.  The mines and the railroads required to ship that stuff out of the country, are necessary for the reconstruction and stability of Afghanistan. It will also help to pay for this massive army we have helped Afghanistan build, and hopefully sustain. (although foreign donors will continue to be the main source of maintaining this army)  So local security contractors will be essential for those projects, and expat security contractors will be required to handle the PSD of engineers and upper management.

Probably the most important things to remember about the draw down is that troops must be approved by congress, but there is no limit as to the number of security contractors that can be hired. Matter of fact, the only limit to security contractors is financial. So if the investments and interest in Afghanistan is still there, contractors will continue to be very important. Probably more important than ever, just because the enemy will want to exploit the draw down of troops is an excellent time to attack and turn up the pressure. We will see….-Matt

The US Isn’t the Only Donor in Afghanistan

As U.S. Pulls Back, Fears Abound Over Toll on Afghan Economy

In Afghanistan, who will pick up where the U.S. leaves off?

The US Isn’t the Only Donor in Afghanistan
06/22/11
Jordan Dey
Fmr. US Director, UN World Food Program
As the Obama Administration announces its Afghanistan drawdown tonight, much has been said about what will change — the number of troops — but there has been virtually no discussion of what will remain largely the same — the continued assistance of more than four dozen countries, 20 UN agencies, and hundreds of NGOs in providing everything from road-building contracts to health care investments in Afghanistan.?As President Obama has shifted US foreign policy from the unilateralism of the Bush Administration to a more collaborative approach with our allies there is no country on earth where that multi-country approach is more apparent than Afghanistan. And, no country on earth where the US is better prepared to reduce its footprint, and leave some work to others.

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Monday, June 13, 2011

Afghanistan: Government Is Building A 7,000-man Security Force For Hajigak Mining Contracts

Filed under: Afghanistan,China,India,Industry Talk — Tags: , , , , , , , — Matt @ 2:00 PM

“The companies (at Hajigak) need to be secure and the Afghan government is making all arrangements. Security at the work camps, the steel plant, movement of men and materials, everything will be taken care of by the government of Afghanistan. We will permanently locate 1,500 persons of the Afghan National Police at Hajigak.”
In case the contractor wants to bring in their own security, like for an “inner ring” as the Chinese have done, Shahrani says Kabul will be “flexible”.

Now this is interesting. So I am wondering how the Afghan government plans to fight the insurgency, and build a security force for these mines?  I thought we were training the police to actually ‘police’ in Afghanistan, and not be security guards for these mines? –Matt

Foreign companies fund private army: The Afghan Government is building up a 7,000-man privately funded militia to protect the country’s mining industry as it struggles to attract foreign investment while battling against a bloody insurgency. The Mining Protection Force will be funded entirely by foreign companies through licences they buy to develop iron, gold and copper mining projects.
Story here.

—————————————————————-
New Afghanistan mining projects create opportunity for India
By Ajai Shukla
June 07, 2011
The new Great Game for the rights to mine Afghanistan’s enormous mineral wealth is gathering momentum. With the global mining industry, and especially Indian mining majors, already focused on the unfolding competition for the massive Hajigak iron-ore mine, Afghanistan has announced five potentially lucrative mines.
Speaking exclusively to Business Standard in Kabul, Afghanistan’s Minister for Mines Wahidullah Shahrani revealed, “After Hajigak, in July this year, I will put five major projects on tender: three copper and two gold deposits and, in February 2012, I will put a huge oil basin in the northern city of Mazar-e-Sharif on tender.”
Immediate attention, though, is focused on the tender for Hajigak, a two-billion-tonne deposit of high-grade iron ore in the central province of Bamiyan, for which bids are required to be submitted by August 3. Shahrani said the winner of the Hajigak contract would be finalised by October.

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Thursday, June 9, 2011

Industry Talk: Is The DoS And The WPS Program Being Set Up For Failure By Congress?

Filed under: Industry Talk — Tags: , , , , , , , — Matt @ 2:19 PM

Iraq as a democracy in our own image is a foolish dream. The State Department will now be expected to be the firewall against its descent back into chaos. Be ready with the fire hoses … um, sorry, Congress had just slashed the money for the fire hoses. –Diplopundit

What I wanted to point out here is that there are several forces that are at play, that might result in contributing to DoS and WPS failure. Congress has never really been excited about funding DoS and has always thrown way more money at defense related initiatives. (thanks to defense industry lobbyists). To get Congress to recognize the value of DoS is like pulling teeth. But folks like the DoS are essential to soft power initiatives and solving problems diplomatically, as opposed to killing people in costly wars. Remember that whole Sun Tzu quote about winning a war without fighting?

With today’s penny pinching endeavors as a result of the economy, or lack of a coherent energy policy, or the cost of fighting two ‘costly’ wars for close to ten years, there is more of an effort to cut costs. Which is good to a point, and I would love to see government get smaller and more efficient. But common sense should be applied to some of these cost cutting initiatives, and especially where lives are on the line.

There are some areas that should not be cut or messed with, because the consequences of not properly funding these functions of government could have grave consequence. Specifically, the DoS mission in places like Iraq or Afghanistan.  And to really boil it down, when agencies get less money to effectively handle projects that are vital to the stability of an already weakened country like Iraq, then you start to see the really negative effects. Things like a lack of, or poor condition of equipment or weapons for security contractors.  Or the amount of oversight decreases or is not fulfilled, because there is no money for such things.

The other forces at play is the public desire to just pull out of these wars, and not care about these programs that we have invested billions of dollars in. This public opinion fuels Congress, and in order to politically survive, they must meet the demands of the public. That is democracy, but it also could lead to half measures or poorly funded programs that really do need sufficient support in order to be successful. I will not sit here and say we should do one thing or the other, and my only goal here is to show the potential consequences of such things.  I would hate to see this industry get thrown under the bus once again, all because of the politics of the war.

Which by the way, I really would like to hear more from the WPS folks, both DoS and contractors, as to how your program is going? The public and this industry needs to know if your operations are negatively impacted because of  these political factors. I will really be mad and sad, if men and women die or get hurt because of these poorly funded and managed initiatives. You are either all in, or all out, and half measures and poor funding can have dangerous consequence. Congress and the public needs to hear it as well.

Another point I wanted to make is WPS will be vital for the ‘other’ DoS missions out there as a result of the Arab Spring.  The cards are being re-shuffled in the middle east and diplomatic missions in these countries will be vital for national interest. These are dangerous times, and security for these diplomatic missions is essential. Congress should do all it can to ensure DoS and it’s security apparatus is successful, because lives and national interest are on the line.

Oh, and the main stream media might be easily influenced by the winds of politics, but this blog is not, and I am concerned with the reality on the ground. I want to know if this industry is getting a fair shot at success out there, or if they are being set up for failure. Of course I want our industry to provide an excellent service to it’s clients, but I am also wary of the factors that are out of the hands of private industry. That way, at the end of the day, we can point the finger at what really was the cause of failure as opposed to letting folks with personal or political agendas define the causes and reasons for failure. Please check out the four articles I have posted below, and let me know what you think? –Matt

Budget woes poised to hit State Department hard
By KATE BRANNEN
June 2, 2011
The State Department’s budget has already taken a hit in 2011, but it appears that its finances will be squeezed even tighter just as the department is trying to regain ground lost to the Pentagon over the past decade.
In the final budget resolution passed for 2011, Congress agreed to provide $48 billion for State and foreign operations. This marked an $8.4 billion reduction from the president’s budget request. It was also $504 million less than the department received in 2010.
For 2012 spending, the House Appropriations Committee announced that it plans to cut $11 billion from the State Department and foreign operations budget request of $47 billion. This includes funding for the U.S. Agency for International Development.

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