Feral Jundi

Tuesday, September 21, 2010

Somalia: Using Mobile Cash For The Troops, Using Iraq Strategy For The Win?

Filed under: Africa,Somalia,Strategy — Tags: , , , , , , — Matt @ 1:00 AM

“Some forces are being paid today and then it will take them four or five months to get another salary,” he said. “You cannot expect those forces to be loyal and defend the country when they’re not getting … what they’re entitled to.” 

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But the insurgents aren’t the only ones who have changed their tactics. The peacekeepers now have 70 bases dotted throughout the city, and are expanding at a rapid rate, pulling troops from positions they consider more secure to move closer to insurgent positions. 

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International donors are trying to find a way of paying soldiers directly to stop commanders from stealing their wages. 

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“I have talked to them and asked them to come back,” Ondoga said. “They have their own problems … when the commander is injured, they will leave.”

Some of the problems were political as well, he said. The commander in chief of the army has recently been replaced, and the president and prime minister are publicly feuding. The prime minister faces a vote of no confidence on Saturday. Somali armed forces are basically militias loyal to a single individual; if his political fortunes take a downturn, they will often simply go home. 

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     This is one of those deals where you read the articles and the situation on the ground, and it just screams some very obvious solutions.  For one, if international donors do not want Somali soldiers to leave the post as soldiers, then make sure they get paid their salaries. If leaders are stealing from the troops, then sidestep the leaders and pay them with mobile cash.  Try it, because it just might work.

     If these soldiers depend upon the international donors directly, then they won’t have to depend upon the power and influence of their specific warlord/politician. They could actually keep fighting, and not worry about their next pay check. It would also force leaders to find new ways of winning over the attention of their troops, other than holding their pay checks over their heads.

    The other one that makes sense is to protect these key leaders.  Actually assign PSD teams to protect these folks, if in fact they are so important to the Somali soldiers. If they are hard to kill, then maybe this might provide a little more stability to the whole thing. Those leaders might be able to focus more on managing a country, and less on protecting themselves.

    Finally, it looks to me like the AU is in a prime position to follow in the same footsteps as the Marines and Army in Iraq back before the surge.  All they need is some guidance and possibly a little technological and strategic help. A leadership team from AFRICOM or a PMC could do such a thing.  Because these bases could easily be called COPS, and these AU forces should be mimicking the same COIN strategies:

The standing operating procedure (SOP) for the unit typically focused on: (1) Planning and establishing the COP; (2) Ensuring route security so each outpost could be kept resupplied; (3) Clearing operations after the COP had been stood up to clear IEDs and find weapons caches; and (4) Census patrols to follow after the clearing operations to consolidate the position and gradually work its way into the human terrain of the area – the real target of MacFarland’s campaign. 

     I won’t even attempt to discuss the AU’s dire need of manpower, and given the rush job that they are doing right now, it sounds like they are in a dire need of strategy. Yet again, there are plenty of PMC’s who could stand up a security force to support this operation, or the US military or one of it’s partners could send some professional forces. If this is truly important to the west, and we do not want islamic extremists to win in Somalia, then the time is now to do something about it.  Or we could watch as the AU struggles with what little resources it has against a ruthless enemy? –Matt

PM: Somalia to open 2nd front against insurgents

AU peacekeepers expand bases in Somali capital

Somalia: Suicide Bomber Attacks at Presidential Gates

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PM: Somalia to open 2nd front against insurgents

KATHARINE HOURELD

Sep 17, 2010

Several thousand Somali forces trained in neighboring Ethiopia and Kenya will open a second front against Islamist insurgents by year-end in Somalia’s south and central regions, the prime minister said Sunday.

(more…)

Friday, June 25, 2010

Somalia: Al Shabab Is Gaining Strength, TFG Corruption Causes Soldier Defections

Filed under: Africa,Al Qaeda,Somalia,Strategy — Tags: , , , , , , — Matt @ 12:34 PM

     Boy, this isn’t a pretty picture.  I have mentioned in the past on why it is important to ‘pay your soldiers’ if you want them to stick around, and this is a prime example of how important that is. Al Shabab has made some moves lately that have increased their size and hold on territory.  Not good for the TFG, and not good for the west.

     I also wanted to mention that Petraeus was the one that signed off on US military covert operations in Somalia. So if we have guys there right now, then a really excellent thing they could do to stop the bleeding is to gain a foothold on the payment and management of these Somali troops.  We spent the money to train them in Ethiopia, we can certainly watch over the payment of their services in Somalia. I compare this to our handling of the HTN contracts in Afghanistan that are causing so many headaches.  We must insure there is adult supervision with this stuff.

     Or, we should just allow the TFG to crumble, and let Al Shabab to take over….  Because as it stands right now, Al Shabab has momentum and they are closing in fast.  And as they conquer and absorb these other Islamic extremist groups, the people will see this strength and bow down to this Islamic force.  How could they not, if the TFG can’t even do the simple task of paying their troops? (and that’s after we gave them the money to pay their troops with) This is basic Governance 101.

      I guess what I am saying is that Al Shabab, and in a larger sense Al Qaeda, is on the verge of a ‘win’ in Somalia. Can we afford this, and especially with what is going on in Afghanistan, or with the victory we are claiming in Iraq? Momentum is quite a thing, and if you give an enemy ground, they will now have something to promote their effectiveness with.  Hell, if we want to give General McChrystal a way to redeem himself, I say let the ‘industrial death machine of Iraq’ have a go in Somalia? Don’t put him charge of AFRICOM, but definitely put him in charge of some kind of project he can focus his talents on. Somalia needs that kind of talent and attention, or we will lose it. –Matt

Furious Soldiers storm Villa Somalia

Hizbul-Islam vanishing into Al-Shabab

U.S. Is Said to Expand Secret Actions in Mideast

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From Strategy Page

June 25, 2010

The Transitional Government (TG) is negotiating with Hizbul Islam. This Islamic radical group is the smaller rival of al Shabaab, and less radical. The more radical members of Hizbul Islam are defecting to al Shabaab, so it makes sense that the less radical ones would try to cut a deal with the TG. Otherwise, an even smaller Hizbul Islam could be crushed by al Shabaab. Meanwhile, the TG is itself threatened with fragmentation as many members of the government strive to rearrange the deal that determines which clans get how many seats in the parliament. Somalis have a hard time compromising, and prefer to fight, which is the main reason the country is such a mess. Corruption is the other big problem. This was seen recently when hundreds of government soldiers, trained by foreign instructors, demonstrated at the presidential palace for back pay. The money had been stolen by government officials, who consider a government job as a license to steal. Donor nations have a hard time convincing officials that effective government cannot survive such attitudes.

Story here.

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Hizbul-Islam vanishing into Al-Shabab

Saturday 19 June 2010

Somaliweyn – Mohammed Omar Hussein

The warriors of Hizbul-Islam one of the adversary Islamist functions in Somalia are in their hundreds joining Al-Shabab another Islamist function in Somalia, which is also extra superior than Hizbul-Islam according the areas which each group is controlling and in terms of fighters as well.

(more…)

Monday, March 29, 2010

Africa: The Lord’s Resistance Army Massacres 321 People In The Congo

Filed under: Africa,Congo — Tags: , , , , , , , , , — Matt @ 1:14 AM

  One of the biggest pigs feeding off of that Anarchy Gravy Train I was talking about, is the LRA.  If there was any a reason to step in with military action to effectively shut down an insane and highly murderous group, these guys take the cake.

   I posted two stories here, and this first one is about the massacre in the Congo these guys just committed. The other story is about legislation being passed in the US to support efforts to stop the LRA and support Uganda.  The second story also presents some very interesting angles about how certain aid groups and charities are really pushing for military action against the LRA–which is kind of a shocker to hear from such groups.  The article also talks about AFRICOM , and it’s roll in Africa, by getting us more involved with dealing with these ‘insane clown posses’ that continue to roam and terrorize Africa.

   My only input on all of this, is that the LRA is taking advantage of jungle cover, weak governments, and weak borders to keep surviving and killing. And if Uganda is able to push them out of their country, that is great, but these folks will just go across the border to the Congo and kill people there.  So now the Congo has to deal with these guys.  If everyone in the region came together and decided that destroying this group was the right thing to do, then and only then will there be a chance at ending this horror once and for all.

   And when I say destroy, I mean kill every last one of them.  You can’t negotiate with Joseph Kony, just like you can’t negotiate with a psychotic killer going on a rampage in a mall. You kill him, and if any of his troops want to continue the fight afterwards, then you kill them too.  It is absolutely vital that you destroy the leader of this group, and any trace amounts that could lead to it’s resurgence after said actions.  The leader, sub-leaders, or whatever.  The LRA should become just a horrible memory after you get through with them.

   As to the child soldiers or child sex slaves?  Hopefully you can rescue them, and get the help they need to become normalized again.  But once again, if you want to eradicate a group like this, forces will be fighting child soldiers along with the adult soldiers of the LRA, and that would be an unfortunate reality of the situation. (please note that a child did this to the woman in the picture below)

   So are  western nations prepared to do this, or are they willing to support other African nations in doing this task? Is the political will there, in order to do the dirty work of removing the LRA from the face of this planet?  That is my question, and until a conclusion is reached, we will continue to watch the LRA and groups like it murder/rape/mutilate/enslave and otherwise create living hells on earth for the innocent people of Africa.  –Matt

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Lokeria Aciro, 40, rests at Saint Joseph’s Hospital near Kitgum after an LRA attack in which a boy of about 11 cut off her lips and ears. She had been collecting firewood outside a camp.

Lord’s Resistance Army killed 321 people in Democratic Republic of Congo

March 29, 2010

Jonathan Clayton

At least 321 people were killed and hundreds were abducted in one of the worst massacres by Africa’s most feared rebel group, the Lord’s Resistance Army (LRA), in the Democratic Republic of Congo in December.

A three-year-old girl was burnt to death during the attack on men, women and children, an investigation by a human rights group has revealed.

Villagers who escaped death were sent back with their lips and ears cut off as a warning to others of what would happen if they talked — a tactic used frequently by the LRA, which has terrorised much of northern Uganda and the border areas with Sudan and Congo for more than two decades.

The attack — which was unreported until now — confirms that the LRA has restarted terrorising the region despite losing its bases in Sudan a few years ago, when Khartoum, its main backer, signed a peace deal with south Sudanese rebels. According to Human Rights Watch the LRA also abducted at least 250 people during the attack, including 80 children.

Anneke Van Woudenberg, of the New York-based rights group, called the massacre in the Makombo area of northeast Democratic Republic of Congo “one of the worst ever committed by the LRA in its bloody 23-year history”.

The LRA is led by Joseph Kony, a warlord dubbed the Wizard of the Nile who mixes traditional African beliefs with fundamentalist Christianity. He has made a point of abducting children terrified of his supposed magical powers to perpetuate the movement. Kony turns the boys into killing machines, often unleashing them on their relatives, and takes girls as child brides for himself and his commanders. Peace talks with the group began about two years ago but failed after Kony executed any of his commanders who showed interest in reaching a settlement.

The majority of those killed in the December attack were men. They were tied up, some bound to trees, before being hacked to death with machetes or having their skulls crushed with axes. The dead included 13 women and 23 children, according to the report, which was written after a mission visited the region in February.

Dieudonne Abakuba, a clergyman at Isiro-Niangara, in the north east of the country, confirmed that 30 members of the LRA attacked about a dozen villages of the nearby Haut Uele district.

(more…)

Wednesday, March 24, 2010

Africa: East Africa Oil, AFRICOM Is In Position, And 10,000 Ugandans With Iraq Experience Are Ready

Filed under: Africa,Industry Talk,Somalia,Uganda — Tags: , , , , , , , — Matt @ 4:02 AM

   This is a quick one I wanted to put out.  I was talking with friends the other day about the Ugandans in Iraq, and how significant their work is to the economy of Uganda.  The money brought in from security work, surpasses what is made off their chief export called coffee, and that is pretty significant.  So the question is, what happens when the work dries up in Iraq?  All of these Ugandan guards are going to be looking for work, and most of the security work in Afghanistan is going to the local nationals.

   So this is what I am starting to piece together, and I am going to take a guess as to where all these guards are going to go next.  I think the plan all along was to professionalize Ugandans for a whole slew of tasks that AFRICOM and the west has in mind for East Africa.  From dealing with Jihadists in Somalia with the AU force, to providing recruits for the Ugandan Army so they can deal with the LRA and others, to protecting this new ‘hot oil zone’ in East Africa.  Ugandans are gonna be in high demand, and we have effectively trained them up with the work in Iraq. Intentional or not, I thought it was interesting to make the connection for the big picture.

   This is not to say that this was the official strategy of the US and AFRICOM all along.  But you have to look at these three stories below, and not think ‘how convenient’?  lol The coming resource war is all about securing our place at the oil trough and making sure there are competent forces to protect that stuff. Thanks to Iraq, we now have a ton of ready made guards or ‘soldiers’ to make that happen.  Let me know what you guys think. –Matt

Edit: 06/11/2010- This is an excellent run down of the current dynamics of oil in this East Africa region.  Good job to Jody.

“Uganda’s recent oil discovery has the chance to reshape relations with its neighbors and the West as energy multinationals eye potential opportunities“

By Jody Ray Bennett for ISN Security Watch

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East Africa is next hot oil zone

March. 10, 2010

NAIROBI, Kenya, March 10 (UPI) — East Africa is emerging as the next oil boom following a big strike in Uganda’s Lake Albert Basin. Other oil and natural gas reserves have been found in Tanzania and Mozambique and exploration is under way in Ethiopia and even war-torn Somalia.

The region, until recently largely ignored by the energy industry, is “the last real high-potential area in the world that hasn’t been fully explored,” says Richard Schmitt, chief executive officer of Dubai’s Black Marlin Energy, which is prospecting in East Africa.

The discovery at Lake Albert, in the center of Africa between Uganda and the Democratic Republic of Congo, is estimated to contain the equivalent of several billion barrels of oil. It is likely to be the biggest onshore field found south of the Sahara Desert in two decades.

(more…)

Sunday, July 20, 2008

News: The Blimps of Blackwater

Filed under: Africa,News — Tags: , , , , — Matt @ 11:42 AM

   Along the lines of my last post about surveillance platforms, this is another interesting development.  UAV blimps.  They are cheaper to run, and can stay up in the sky a long time.  The problem I see, is why wouldn’t the enemy just shoot the thing out of the sky?  Nothing like a big slow lumbering white target in the sky to shoot at.  I would guess that they are planning on operating these things pretty high up, in order to get out of at least small arms range.  

   I would also hate to have these things get swooped up in some surprise sand storm like we get all the time in Iraq and Afghanistan.  But I do think these would be a good hit for some of the areas we operate in.  

   The most interesting comment in this article, was about AFRICOM and Blackwater setting up aviation shop there.  Prince is right.  Africa has terrible roads, and lots of them.  As we become more involved with Africa, UAVs watching the flight paths of these passenger aircraft will be vital.  And with more aviation work, comes more potential SAR operations.  Blackwater and their aviation company Presidential Airways has definitely acquired some interesting aircraft.  –Head Jundi 

Blackwater Blimp

Blackwater expands its fleet of airships

By Michael Hoffman – Staff writer

Posted : Saturday Jul 19, 2008 7:59:19 EDT

Blackwater Worldwide is building up its own Air Force.

Airmen might soon find Blackwater blimps patrolling Iraq and Afghanistan skies in addition to its helicopter and light transport aircraft already flying thousands of missions in theater.

According to Blackwater Worldwide CEO Erik Prince, eight Blackwater CASA 212 light transport aircraft flew 11,000 sorties in Afghanistan last year supporting 38 combat outposts over 19,000 square miles. Its aircraft transported more than 40,000 personnel and 9.5 million pounds of supplies last year.

“We moved about 40,000 passengers, and our total costs, our total invoice for that mission is about what the U.S. Air Force is paying for one new C-27,” he said.

“So the idea of outsourcing versus having government do it, that’s a pretty simple math question for me.”

Prince, who sat down July 7 for a rare, exclusive interview with Military Times editors and reporters, said he isn’t looking to replace the Air Force — simply fill a void where his company is needed.

“I think there’s a gap,” Prince said. “The C-130 is a great aircraft, but the older ones are getting pretty worn out and the C-130Js are coming online, but that’s a very expensive airplane.”

(more…)

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