Feral Jundi

Saturday, October 17, 2009

Al Qaeda: AQ’s Guerilla Chief Ilyas Kashmiri Lays Out Strategy in Interview

Filed under: Al Qaeda,Pakistan,Strategy — Tags: , , , — Matt @ 1:02 PM

“Within just months of arriving in the Afghan war theater in 2005, Kashmiri redefined the Taliban-led insurgency based on legendary Vietnamese General Vo Nguyen Giap’s three-pronged guerrilla warfare strategy. For the Taliban, the main emphasis was to be placed on cutting NATO’s supply lines from all four sides of Afghanistan, and carrying out special operations similar to the Mumbai attack in Afghanistan.”

“Afghanistan is a unique place in the world where the hunter has all sorts of traps to choose from.”

“Wolves only respect a lion’s iron slap; lions do not impress with the logic of a sheep, Ilyas said.”

*****

   Doug sent me this, and I found this to be a fascinating interview.  The things I keyed into, are the quotes up top.  That, and what Kashmiri did not say.  Meaning, this guy has some serious plans, and he is a pro.  In terms of strategy and guerilla war fighting, this guy has the goods. He also mentions General Giap as an influence, but really, that is just a propaganda ploy.  His real influence, is the very thing that influenced General Giap, and that is Mao Tse-Tung.

   Mao-Tse Tung’s three phases of revolutionary war, are what Giap and Kashmiri are talking about.  Although what Giap did, and what other guerilla leaders have done in their wars, is to take a winning strategy like the three phases of revolutionary war, and soup it up to meet the needs of their war.

   Basically copy what works, gain experience practicing that strategy on the battlefield, seek continuous improvement, and introduce an edge that will put you ahead of an enemy who is also briefed on or practicing the same type of strategy.  It all goes back to being a better learning organization than your enemy, having the flexibility to apply those lessons faster than your enemy, and applying OODA to your fight. The OODA part is very important, because both the enemy and you have access to the same history, lessons learned and military strategies thanks to today’s technologies and open source material.

    Meaning, we have to assume that Kashmiri knows about Sun Tzu, Col. John Boyd, Mao Tse-Tung, Clausewitz etc., and our OODA must reflect that reality. (if our military strategists in this war have not come to this conclusion yet, you are idiots) More importantly, Kashmiri is learning from our experience in Vietnam, and studying how that war’s guerilla fighters operated.

   The propaganda angle is clear as well.  Kashmiri is trying to give the impression that AQ is the new Vietcong.  That, and that the US is fighting another Vietnam war in Afghanistan.

   Here is another point.  If Kashmiri is building off of the Mao Tse Tung 3 Phases of Revolutionary war, then our counter insurgency strategy should take the position of isolating Al Qaeda from being able to accomplish all three phases. Or on a grand strategy level (because we fight AQ all over the place), is that we isolate the enemy morally/mentally/physically from the population centers they choose to prey upon, and at the same time, we increase our standing with the various populations–morally/mentally/physically.

   To make it really simple, for each phase below, we must always ask ourselves, who is doing a better job at each phase?If we can’t say we are doing well at any of these phases, then our learning organizations must be focused on coming up with a better way, and our warfighting and diplomacy machines should have the flexibility to apply these new lessons to win the fight.  The small and agile guerilla has the advantage when it comes to this kind of flexibility, and large organizations will always run into the problem of being able to adapt and flex. Find what works, gain experience practicing it, apply Kaizen to making it better, and find an innovation or ‘edge’ that will put you ahead of the game to defeat the enemy.

   One final thing.  What makes Ilyas Kashmiri especially dangerous, is that he used to be a hero to the Pakistani military.  He killed Indians well, and had a knack for taking out leaders.  Kashmiri also knows the US strategy in war, because he was a fighter during the Soviet occupation in Afghanistan, and more than likely we trained the guy.  Or at least gave him some weapons and taught him how to use them (he was a mine or IED expert by the way–go figure).  This guy is a smart and experienced guerilla fighter, who is certainly a danger to Pakistan and the war effort in Afghanistan.  That is why he is AQ’s top guerilla commander.

    Happy hunting, and this guy would be a great trophy up on the wall! Did I mention he has a bounty on his head worth about 600,000 dollars?-Matt

*****

Three Phases of Revolutionary Warfare

Phase 1 : Organizational and political mobilization. The emphasis is on creating an underground network and infrastructure in the rural area. Although a defensive stage,

occasional acts of low level guerrilla warfare may occur. It is, however, primarily a period of education and indoctrination.

Phase 2: There is an increase in guerrilla activity, to the point where the insurgents have gained control of the rural areas and surrounding countryside. Major base camps are established. Regional forces emerge. Occasional acts of mobile warfare are conducted, some of which, particularly in the latter portion of this phase, may consist of a relatively large attacking force.

Phase 3: This is the strategic offensive stage; large-scale conventional warfare attacks are conducted by the combined forces and a general uprising of the people occurs. –Mao Tse-Tung

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Al-Qaeda’s guerrilla chief lays out strategy

Oct 15, 2009

AN ATol EXCLUSIVE

By Syed Saleem Shahzad

ANGORADA, South Waziristan, at the crossroads with Afghanistan – A high-level meeting on October 9 at the presidential palace between Pakistan’s civil and military leaders endorsed a military operation against the Pakistani Taliban and al-Qaeda in the South Waziristan tribal area – termed by analysts as the mother of all regional conflicts.

At the same time, al-Qaeda is implementing its game plan in the South Asian war theater as a part of its broader campaign against American global hegemony that began with the attacks in the United States of September 11, 2001.

Al-Qaeda’s target remains the United States and its allies, such as Europe, Israel and India, and it does not envisage diluting this

strategy by embracing Muslim resistances on narrow parameters. In this context, militant activity in Pakistan is seen as a complexity rather than as a part of al-Qaeda’s strategy.

Militants have been particularly active over the past few days. Last Thursday, a car loaded with explosives rammed into the compound wall of the Indian Embassy in Kabul, Afghanistan’s capital, killing at least 17 people. Then on Saturday, militants staged an audacious attack on the the Pakistani military headquarters in Rawalpindi, the twin city of the capital, Islamabad. On Monday, a suicide bomber detonated a bomb in market town in the Swat Valley region, killing 41 people and injuring 45 others.

Pakistan is at critical juncture, with the armed forces gathered in their largest-ever numbers (almost a corps, as many as 60,000 troops) around South Waziristan to flush out the Pakistan Tehrik-e-Taliban (PTT), al-Qaeda and their allies from the Pakistani tribal areas.

(more…)

Friday, September 25, 2009

Saudi Arabia: Fears Over ‘Internal’ Terror Bomb

   This is interesting.  I could see this adding a whole new level of complexities in this war.  If an x-ray machine couldn’t pick this up, and there is nothing on the outside of the body to indicate a bomb, then this is not cool.  Guys could just board a plane and time the detonation over populated cities.  They could also do much more targeted killings like in the case of this attempted assault. The possibilities are only limited by the imaginations of these miscreants, and we will see if this becomes a trend. –Matt

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Fears over ‘internal’ terror bomb

Saturday, 26 September 2009

By Frank Gardner

Security and intelligence experts are deeply worried by a new development in suicide bombing, the BBC has learned.

It has emerged that an al-Qaeda bomber who died last month while trying to blow up a Saudi prince in Jeddah had hidden the explosives inside his body.

Only the attacker died, but it is feared that the new development could be copied by others.

Experts say it could have implications for airport security, rendering traditional metal detectors “useless”.

Last month’s bombing left people wondering how one of the most wanted al-Qaeda operatives in Saudi Arabia could get so close to the prince in charge of counter-terrorism that he was able to blow himself up in the same room.

(more…)

Saturday, March 28, 2009

Bounties: US Posts 11 Million Dollar Bounty for Al-Qaeda Three

Filed under: Al Qaeda,Bounties — Tags: , , , — Matt @ 8:52 PM

US posts 11-mln-dollar bounty for Al-Qaeda three

03/25/2009

WASHINGTON (AFP) — The United States Wednesday offered up to 11 million dollars in rewards to find and capture three Al-Qaeda militants operating in Afghanistan and Pakistan.

The rewards included a five-million-dollar bounty for the location or arrest of Baitullah Mehsud, who has been linked to the murder of former Pakistani prime minister Benazir Bhutto.

Bhutto was killed in a suicide attack in December 2007, plunging Pakistan into a protracted political crisis.

“Mehsud is regarded as a key Al-Qaeda facilitator in the tribal areas of South Waziristan in Pakistan,” the US State Department said in a statement.

Mehsud was also described by the United States as a senior leader of Tehrik-e-Taliban, the Taliban Movement of Pakistan.

Militants apparently loyal to Mehsud were accused by Pakistan of orchestrating a January 2007 attack on the Marriot Hotel in Islamabad which killed two people.

A further five million dollars was offered for Sirajuddin Haqqani, a suspected leader of the Haqqani terror network founded by his father.

The group has been linked to Al-Qaeda in Afghanistan.

In an interview with a US newspaper, Sirajuddin Haqqani admitted to bombing the Serena Hotel in Kabul in January 2008, killing six people, including American citizen Thor David Hesla.

“Haqqani also admitted to having planned the April 2008 assassination attempt on Afghan President Hamid Karzai,” the State Department said.

One million dollars has been offered for information about alledged Al-Qaeda member Abu Yahya al-Libi. A Libyan citizen, Libi escaped from Bagram Air Force Base in Afghanistan in 2005, after three years in detention.

He is believed to be in hiding in Afghanistan or Pakistan, from where he has “appeared in a number of propaganda videos, using his religious training to influence people and legitimize the actions of Al-Qaeda,” according to the State Department.

Story Here

 

Thursday, January 1, 2009

Al Qaeda: Governance of the Wilderness and AQ’s Plan B

Filed under: Al Qaeda,Publications — Tags: , , , — Matt @ 1:30 PM

     I stumbled upon this book while reading through John Robb’s Global Guerillas, and thought it belonged here. Sheik Abu-Bakar al Naji (al Qaeda’s lead warfare theorist), wrote the book Governance of the Wilderness which discusses the thought process and theories for Al Qaeda’s war against the west.  I know this article is from last summer, but better late than never.

     Robb mentioned these three key points of the book, and here they are:

System disruption. “countless small operations” that “target oilfields, sea and airports, tourist facilities and especially banking and financial services” to weaken the state and create a “wilderness.” 

Temporary autonomous zones and primary loyalties “Islamists in the ‘wilderness’ must create parallel societies alongside existing ones.”

Avoid control of a state don’t “set up formal governments, which would be subject to economic pressure or military attack.”  

    Although I have heard that this book is just a re-hashing of their other manifesto, ‘The Management of Savagery’ , I would still like to read it. Unfortunately, Amazon does not sell this book, so I have to get bits and pieces of it from where I can. If any of the readers have a source, I will definitely post it here. –Matt  

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AL QAEDA’S PLAN B

By AMIR TAHERI

New York Post

July 1, 2008 —

No one should feel safe without submitting to Islam, and those who refuse to submit must pay a high price. The Islam ist movement must aim to turn the world into a series of “wildernesses” where only those under jihadi rule enjoy security.

These are some of the ideas developed by al Qaeda’s chief theoretician, Sheik Abu-Bakar Naji, in his new book “Governance in the Wilderness” (Edarat al-Wahsh).

Middle East analysts think that the book may indicate a major change of strategy by the disparate groups that use al Qaeda as a brand name.

The Saudi police seized copies of the book last week as they arrested 700 alleged terrorists in overnight raids.

Naji’s book, written in pseudo-literary Arabic, is meant as a manifesto for jihad. He divides the jihadi movement into five circles – ranging from Sunni Salafi (traditionalist) Muslims (who, though not personally violent, are prepared to give moral and material support to militants) to Islamist groups with national rather than pan-Islamist agendas (such as the Palestinian Hamas and the Filipino Moro Liberation Front).

All five circles are at an impasse, says Naji. Some accept the status quo while hoping to reform it. Others have tried to set up governments in a world dominated by “infidel” powers, and have been forced to abandon Islamic values. Still others failed because they didn’t realize that the only way to win is through total war in which no one feels safe.

NAJI claims that the fall of the Ottoman Empire and the abolition of the Islamic Caliphate in 1924 marked the start of “the most dangerous phase in history.” Those events put all Arab countries, the heartland of Islam, under domination by the “infidel”- who later continued to rule via native proxies.

In Naji’s eyes, it is impossible to create a proper Islamic state in a single country in a world dominated by “Crusaders.” He cites as example the Taliban – which, although a proper Islamic regime, didn’t survive “infidel” attacks and opposition by Afghan elements.

Instead, he says, the Islamic movement must be global – fighting everywhere, all the time, and on all fronts.

SINCE 9/11, Islamist terror movements have been debating grand strategy. Osama bin Laden had theorized that the “infidel,” led by the United States, would crumble after a series of spectacular attacks, just as the Meccan “infidel” government did when the Prophet Muhammad launched deadly raids against its trade routes. Yet the 9/11 attacks didn’t lead to an “infidel” retreat. On the contrary, the “Great Satan” hit back hard.

That persuaded some al Qaeda leaders that a new strategy of smaller, slower but steadier attacks was needed. Ayman al-Zawahiri, al Qaeda’s No. 2, has advocated such a strategy since 2003, arguing that the jihad should first target Muslim countries where it has a chance of toppling the incumbent regimes.

Now Naji takes that analysis a step further – suggesting that low-intensity war be extended to anywhere in the world with a significant Muslim presence.

Islamists in the “wilderness” must create parallel societies alongside existing ones, Naji says – but not set up formal governments, which would be subject to economic pressure or military attack.

These parallel societies could resemble “liberated zones” set up by Marxist guerrillas in parts of Latin America in the last century. But they could also exist within cities, under the very noses of the authorities – operating as secret societies with their own rules, values and enforcement.

But they could also take shape in Western countries with large Muslim minorities: The jihadis are to begin by giving areas where Muslims live a distinctly Islamic appearance, by imposing special styles of dress for women and beards for men. Then they start imposing the shariah. In the final phase, they create a parallel system of taxation and law enforcement, effectively taking the areas out of government control.

The “wilderness” will provide the cover for bases for jihad operations. Jihad would be everywhere, rather than in just one or two countries that the “infidel” could hit with superior firepower.

IN a notable departure from past al Qaeda strategy, Naji recommends “countless small operations” that render daily life unbearable, rather than a few spectacular attacks such as 9/11: The “infidel,” leaving his home every morning, should be unsure whether he’ll return in the evening.

Naji recommends kidnappings, the holding of hostages, the use of women and children as human shields, exhibition killings to terrorize the enemy, suicide bombings and countless gestures that make normal life impossible for the “infidel” and Muslim collaborators.

Once parallel societies are established throughout the world, they would exert pressure on non-Muslims to submit. Naji believes that, subjected to constant intimidation and fear of death, most non-Muslims (especially in the West) would submit: “The West has no stomach for a long fight.”

The only Western power still capable of resisting is the United States, he believes. But that, too, will change once President Bush is gone.

NAJI makes it clear that the United States is the chief, if not the exclusive target, of jihad at this time. He mentions Israel only once, as “America’s little female idol.” His only reference to Palestine is in a historical context.

Naji asks jihadis to target oilfields, sea and airports, tourist facilities and especially banking and financial services. He envisages “a very long war,” at the end of which the whole world is brought under the banner of Islam.

He identifies several Muslim countries as promising for establishing “the governance of the wilderness”: Saudi Arabia, Pakistan, Yemen, Turkey, Jordan, Libya, Tunisia and Morocco. The implication is that “wilderness” units already exist in nations such as Afghanistan, Iraq, Lebanon, Egypt, Somalia and Algeria.

Naji’s theory is built on the concept of terror as the main organizing principle of the mini-states he hopes to set up everywhere in preparation for the coming Caliphate. He claims that the Prophet himself practiced the tactic by making his enemies in Medina, where he ran his version of the “wilderness,” pay “the maximum price” for any deviance, and through constant raids on trade caravans belonging to his enemies in Mecca.

IN a simple language, Naji of fers a synthesis of the themes that appeal to different jihadi groups. With anti-imperialist sentiments, missionary dreams, ethnic and class grievances and puritanical obsessions, he mixes a deadly cocktail.

Naji’s message is stark: Western civilization is doomed. Its last bastion, America, lacks the will for a long war. The “infidel” loves life and treats it as an endless feast. Jihadis have to ruin that feast and persuade the “infidel” to abandon this world in exchange for greater rewards in the next.

Amir Taheri’s next book, “The Persian Night: Iran Under the Khomeinist Revolution,” is due out this fall.

Story Here

Saturday, October 11, 2008

Video: 60 Minutes-Killing Bin Laden and Missed Opportunities

Filed under: Al Qaeda,Video — Tags: , , , , — Matt @ 11:13 AM

Watch CBS Videos Online

     This was a great little video about a little known subject. How close were we in killing OBL in the early years of the war? According to this interview, it sounds like we were really close. Also, if you want to read the book written by the guy that is being interviewed, check it out here. –Head Jundi

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