Feral Jundi

Tuesday, October 12, 2010

Building Snowmobiles: Open Source Counter-Terrorism

Filed under: Al Qaeda,Building Snowmobiles,Strategy — Tags: , , , , , , , , , — Matt @ 12:27 PM

     The other day I read an interesting post over at Global Guerrillas called ‘open source jihad’. Open source is a concept borrowed by the computer and software development community with a philosophy derived by what Eric Raymond conceived in his essay ‘The Cathedral and the Bazaar’. (see below)

     What John Robb was referring to specifically was Al Qaeda’s new open source jihad magazine called Inspire. It is kind of a comical magazine, but it is also a symbol of what open source warfare looks like in today’s modern world. It is a magazine designed to give jihadists throughout the world the ideas necessary to successfully attack and defeat infidels. The magazine has no license over the ideas, and hands these ideas out to anyone who wants them. That is the power of the idea exchange, and the intent is for people to take those ideas and do something with them.

     Now this is where my ideas come into the picture. John Robb continues to promote what today’s enemies of the world can and will do with this concept of open source warfare. But to me, I would like to present what today’s ‘good guys’ can do with open source warfare. Call it ‘open source counter-terrorism’, or whatever you want to call it–because that is the point, you can call it whatever you want to call it. lol All you have to remember is that this is a strategy of ‘mimicry’. (taking your enemy’s strategy, and adding something to it to give you the edge)

     With that said, what would open source counter-terrorism look like? Simply stated, read Feral Jundi and that is open source counter-terrorism. My target audience is security and military professionals, as well as the public, and my message has always been that of countering today’s enemies with new and interesting strategies and ideas. From destroying the cartels, to counter-piracy off the coast of Somalia, to defeating the Taliban and Al Qaeda at their game. This blog is an open source warfare publication for those that care about the fight. This Inspire magazine is the enemy’s equivalent.

     I would also classify other blogs and forums/message boards I follow as a form of open source counter-terrorism or open source warfare. We all locate the stories that would be interesting to our peers, we present them to the community, and we discuss. Folks come up with strategies and ideas in their brain about how to counter a specific threat, or what equipment to buy, or how to set up their weapon, etc. Hell, I originally learned about contracting by visiting a forum called Tactical Forums, and I would classify that as ‘open source contract job search’. lol Because in the beginning, there were no books or schools to teach you how to contract. You had to learn from numerous online sources and build off of other contractor’s strategies for the job search and working in the industry.

     But what is missing in the whole open source counter-terrorism game is more of a focus on the public at large. To me, the jihadist fears a public that is armed with the knowledge necessary to defeat them. The jihadist, pirate, cartel, or whomever all depend on the idea that civilians do not have the mental or emotional fortitude to defeat them. That terrorism will always reign supreme. Pfffft. I would like to change that.

     To be realistic though, I don’t expect grandma to pick up an M-240 and mow down terrorists. But I do think grandma can do things that can throw a serious wrench into the Usama or Zetas terror machine. Grandma can pick up a phone, she can identify scenarios that would be of concern, she can identify persons, she can film/tweet/text via smart phone all sorts of stuff that would be interesting to the sheep dogs. There are tons of things grandma can do within her power. She also has a brain, and can logically think out strategies and tactics, or provide a missing piece of information that no one else thought up. She has value and an empowered grandma can certainly be a counter to the empowered jihadist.

     Another concept that was brought up on my Face Book page by some readers was developing games to help educate the public on how to fight these folks. Massive multiplayer games on Facebook, or spectacular video games like Modern Warfare are examples of the kind of games that get incredible reach. They also present scenarios for players to strategize and out think enemies. Just the kind of thing to fuel open source counter-terrorism. The TV show called Surviving Disaster is another example of empowering civilians to survive and even stop terrorism. Entertainment is an excellent way of getting the ideas out there.

     On a side note, one other area of open source warfare that I keep introducing and hoping others will build off of is the concept of Letter of Marque and Reprisal. It is an old system of licensing that provided structure and a legal mechanism for the state and private industry partnership during times of war. I think it can be an effective system if given some modern upgrades.

     The number one theme of open source counter-terrorism though is to promote the concept that counter-terror is not just for police or military. It is a concept that gets the civilian population involved with counter-terror, both directly and indirectly. Directly– meaning armed with knowledge to defeat these folks or disrupt their operations, and indirectly by discussing, developing and sharing new strategies and ideas, or building off of current strategies and ideas via blogs and forums, that can help police/military/public to defeat these enemies. A big hat tip to John Robb and his ideas, and to my readers over the years for fueling the great open source counter-terror game here on this blog. –Matt

Open Source Warfare

The Cathedral and the Bazaar

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Open Source Warfare

Glenn ReynoldsJohn Robb’s chilling brief on postmodern terrorism23 May 2007

Brave New War: The Next Stage of Terrorism and the End of Globalization, by John Robb

Last year, I wrote a book called An Army of Davids: How Markets and Technology Empower Ordinary People to Beat Big Government, Big Media, and Other Goliaths. It was a celebration of how technology empowers the little guy, though I did spend some time discussing the darker sides of this development. John Robb’s Brave New War is in a way the mirror image of my argument: it devotes a lot of space to the dark side of the technological empowerment of individuals and small groups, and much less to potential upsides.

The dark side is certainly there. In the old days, you needed many people to commit significant mayhem—something like a Roman legion, or at least a century. Nowadays, one man with an AK-47 is probably a match for a hundred Roman legionaries, and modern explosives make matters even more asymmetrical. In the foreseeable future, Robb concludes, we may even see a situation where an individual can declare war on the world—and win. Or as science fiction writer Vernor Vinge put it in his recent book Rainbows End, set in 2025: “Nowadays Grand Terror technology was so cheap that cults and criminal gangs could acquire it . . . . In all innocence, the marvelous creativity of humankind continued to generate unintended consequences. There were a dozen research trends that could ultimately put world-killer weapons in the hands of anyone having a bad hair day.”

Wednesday, September 15, 2010

PMC 2.0: Innovation Prizes For Private Military Companies

Filed under: Bounties,Building Snowmobiles,Industry Talk,Letter Of Marque,PMC 2.0 — Tags: , , , , , , , , , , — Matt @ 2:04 AM

“I’m worth a million in prizes..” Iggy Pop

*****

     Wow, I really liked this article at the Economist and I wanted to share.  It kind of shows how desperate private industry and governments are for really good ideas.  And as everyone here knows, I am all about new ideas or ‘building snowmobiles’ and I try to promote that process as much as I can.

    But imagine adding incentive to the ‘building snowmobiles’ theme?  That is what makes innovation prizes such an interesting and potentially lethal concept for our industry and the war effort. Perhaps I should consider raising prize money for the best construction of a Letter of Marque concept for modern warfare use?  How about an innovation prize for low cost, high return warfare ideas?  Really open it up to the public, or just offer the contests within the boundaries of an organization. How about an innovation prize for new types of war or business strategies? Or how about for a company logo? To really put it out there, how about using mobile cash as a means to reward locals as a means of gaining ideas for COIN and reconstruction in Afghanistan?

    Companies could also offer innovation prizes to those who can come up with the best cost saving ideas, or to new directions in business?  There are many complex problems a company could try to solve by putting it out there for their employees to solve through a prize system.  It is just one more way to create that unique situation that would allow for your employees to create something important to the company or ‘people will support what they help to create’.

    Now the one thing that is most valuable and truly the prize, is business success or victory in war. A company would be smart to not only offer prizes for innovations, but to reward their company as a whole by increasing salaries because they are more profitable. Or offer the benefit in one way or another, which would reward your employees for participating in this innovation prize concept in the first place.

    The articles below indicate that this is a major theme throughout the world, and it sounds like most of the experts agree that it works.  For companies reading this, InnoCentive is the company that the Economist identified as a platform for innovation prizes.  Or you could just start your our prize initiatives. If the US government is jumping all over this stuff with their Challenge.gov site, then our industry could probably stand to benefit from it as well. I would even post it here on the blog if it was open to the industry and public?

    As for the problem solvers out there, there are plenty of prizes to go after if you have some big ideas.  Thousands of dollars are available and it sounds like these prizes are only increasing in size and number.  Just check out the chart below. –Matt

And the winner is…

Challenge.gov looking for great ideas

For Corporations (from InnoCentive website)

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And the winner is…

Offering a cash prize to encourage innovation is all the rage. Sometimes it works rather well

Aug 5th 2010

A CURIOUS cabal gathered recently in a converted warehouse in San Francisco for a private conference. Among them were some of the world’s leading experts in fields ranging from astrophysics and nanotechnology to health and energy. Also attending were entrepreneurs and captains of industry, including Larry Page, the co-founder of Google, and Ratan Tata, the head of India’s Tata Group. They were brought together to dream up more challenges for the X Prize Foundation, a charitable group which rewards innovation with cash. On July 29th a new challenge was announced: a $1.4m prize for anyone who can come up with a faster way to clean oil spills from the ocean.

The foundation began with the Ansari X Prize: $10m to the first private-sector group able to fly a reusable spacecraft 100km (62 miles) into space twice within two weeks. It was won in 2004 by a team led by Burt Rutan, a pioneering aerospace engineer, and Paul Allen, a co-founder of Microsoft. Other prizes have followed, including the $10m Progressive Automotive X Prize, for green cars that are capable of achieving at least 100mpg, or its equivalent. Peter Diamandis, the entrepreneur who runs the foundation, says he has become convinced that “focused and talented teams in pursuit of a prize and acclaim can change the world.”

(more…)

Friday, August 13, 2010

Cool Stuff: The Peltzman Effect, Spontaneous Order, And The Roundabout

Filed under: Cool Stuff,Technology — Tags: , , , , , , — Matt @ 2:10 AM

     I read this article a couple of days ago, but this little snippet was what stuck in my head.  It was cool to see John Stossel build a ‘snow mobile’ out of these ideas, and to learn about Spontaneous Order and the Peltzman Effect.  You learn something new all the time, and perhaps some of you out there, or even myself, will build something out of these concepts in the future?

     One thing that I would like to add to this article is the ‘roundabout‘.  I like the roundabout, because it is the best mixture of channeling traffic efficiently as well as putting more decision making in the minds of drivers.  You enter the thing, you are channeled throughout the entire process, and you decide when to turn out.  There is also a faster flow of traffic, and less idle time which equates to better fuel usage in those areas that use the system. And according to these guys, they are safer and more efficient. There are some signs for the roundabout, like to indicate it is coming up or to yield to oncoming traffic, but it is not nearly as sign intensive or as confusing as the standard traffic stop in the US or elsewhere. –Matt

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From John Stossel’s Private Industry Does It Better, Page 2

August 5th, 2010

It’s Friedrich Hayek’s “spontaneous” order in action: Instead of sitting at a mechanized light waiting to be told when to go, drivers meet in an intersection and negotiate their way through by making eye contact and gesturing. The secret is that drivers must pay attention to their surroundings — to pedestrians and other cars — rather than just to signs and signals. It demonstrates the “Peltzman Effect” (named after retired University of Chicago economist Sam Peltzman): People tend to behave more recklessly when their sense of safety is increased. By removing signs, lights and barriers, drivers feel less safe, so they drive more carefully. They pay more attention.

In Drachten, Holland, lights and signs were removed from an intersection handling about 30,000 cars a day. Average waiting times dropped from 50 seconds to less than 30 seconds. Accidents dropped from an average of eight per year to just one.

On Kensington High Street in London, after pedestrian railing and other traffic markers were removed, accidents dropped by 44 percent.

“What these signs are doing is treating the driver as if they were an idiot,” says traffic architect Ben Hamilton-Baillie. “If you do so, drivers exhibit no intelligence.”

Story here.

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The Peltzman Effect

By Wikipedia

The Peltzman effect is the hypothesized tendency of people to react to a safety regulation by increasing other risky behavior, offsetting some or all of the benefit of the regulation. It is named after Sam Peltzman, a professor of Economics at the University of Chicago Booth School of Business.

From the foreword of a talk by Peltzman at the American Enterprise Institute:

Sam Peltzman is one of the few economists, and probably the only regulatory economist, to have an effect named after him — the “Peltzman effect.” The Peltzman effect arises when people adjust their behavior to a regulation in ways that counteract the intended effect of the regulation. So, for example, when the government passes a seatbelt law, some drivers may respond by driving less safely. It turns out that the Peltzman effect has widespread application and has spawned, like much of Professor Peltzman’s other work, a veritable cottage industry for economists.

(more…)

Friday, August 6, 2010

Building Snowmobiles: Using Economic Theory To Predict Enemy Strategy?

Filed under: Afghanistan,Building Snowmobiles,Strategy — Tags: , , , , , , , , — Matt @ 1:38 AM

“It is clear that war is not a mere act of policy but a true political instrument, a continuation of political activity by other means.” Karl Von Clauswitz

“What is of supreme importance in war is to attack the enemy’s strategy.” – Sun Tzu

     First off, I want to mention that this post is the product of one of my reader’s ‘a ha’ moments.  What really makes this cool is that this reader is a fan of the ‘building snowmobiles’ posts on FJ and this was him putting together these random pieces and creating something out of all of it.  He had attended a college course years back that covered economic theory, he is well read on the war and a veteran of the war in Afghanistan, he had read Feral Jundi and knew how fun analysis and synthesis can be, and then finally stumbled on some recent news about the war and Taliban strategy, and put it all together. And this is me trying to assemble the thing based on his instructions, and I am thoroughly enjoying myself.

     Simply put, this is about using economic theory as a potential tool to predict enemy strategies, so you can defeat those strategies.  Because like Sun Tzu says, it ‘is of supreme importance to attack the enemy’s strategy’. Of course I am not going to go all out and say you can predict with 100 percent certainty what your enemy will do. Still, the closer you can get the better, and these are potential tools you can use for predictive analysis.

    In this exercise, we will use Afghanistan and the current war against the Taliban there. At this time, we are also using a counter-insurgency strategy.  The Taliban are considered the insurgents in this case, and they too are using a insurgency type strategy.  Both strategies are heavily influenced by gaining the support of the population. Famous counter-insurgent David Galula had this to say about counterinsurgency:

The aim of the war is to gain the support of the population Galula proposes four “laws” for counterinsurgency:

1.The aim of the war is to gain the support of the population rather than control of territory.

2.Most of the population will be neutral in the conflict; support of the masses can be obtained with the help of an active friendly minority.

3.Support of the population may be lost. The population must be efficiently protected to allow it to cooperate without fear of retribution by the opposite party.

4.Order enforcement should be done progressively by removing or driving away armed opponents, then gaining support of the population, and eventually strengthening positions by building infrastructure and setting long-term relationships with the population. This must be done area by area, using a pacified territory as a basis of operation to conquer a neighbouring area.

Galula contends that:

A victory [in a counterinsurgency] is not the destruction in a given area of the insurgent’s forces and his political organization. … A victory is that plus the permanent isolation of the insurgent from the population, isolation not enforced upon the population, but maintained by and with the population. … In conventional warfare, strength is assessed according to military or other tangible criteria, such as the number of divisions, the position they hold, the industrial resources, etc. In revolutionary warfare, strength must be assessed by the extent of support from the population as measured in terms of political organization at the grass roots. The counterinsurgent reaches a position of strength when his power is embedded in a political organization issuing from, and firmly supported by, the population. 

   I wanted to put this out there first as one of the main definitions of COIN, so we have somewhere to start.(most strategies are population-centric)  In this war, we are basically fighting for the support of the people, and you could easily say that this is politics with guns.  You could also say that both sides of this conflict are selling to the population that they are a better idea and friend than the other guy.  The Taliban use their methods to achieve population support, and we use ours. In other words, we are in the business of politics in this war. We are trying to win votes or popularity, and like politicians, we are finding all and any way to win as many votes as possible.

(more…)

Saturday, May 22, 2010

Building Snowmobiles: Cyber Privateers

Filed under: Building Snowmobiles,Letter Of Marque,Technology — Tags: , , , , , , , , , — Matt @ 1:47 AM

     Ahhhh, time to fire up the old Building Snowmobiles category again, and thanks to James from Death Valley Magazine for giving me the heads up on this story below. Wired’s Danger Room wrote up an interesting article on the latest contract that Booz Allen Hamilton won with the Air Force in regards to cyber-security. This is interesting to me, because it is a government contracting a PMC to provide security in a commons called cyber space.  It reminds me of our original privateers in the US who were contracted by Congress via the Letter of Marque, to go after the British in that other ‘commons’ called the open sea. And with this latest contract, I would have to say that Booz Allen Hamilton gets the award for top cyber privateer. lol (that is not to say that Booz Hamilton will be getting bounties or seizing assets any time soon, but private industry is certainly answering the call for this one and making some serious money)

     I have lately been toying with the idea of how the Letter of Marque (LoM) could be applied to today’s current cyber security threats and to cyber warfare.  The scope of threats are so large and so complex, that there must be a strategy implemented that can keep up with these threats.  It is my belief that you should approach the problem with multiple solutions that all contribute to the overall strategy, and to create those solutions you need some analysis and you need synthesis.  And cyber privateers is some serious synthesis in my opinion, and I don’t think anyone has really delved into this before.  Issuing a LoM to individuals or companies might be one way to tap into the creativity and freedom of private industry, and still keep a leash on them based on the legal requirements of the letter.  It would be a way for congress to keep control over these kinds of contractors, yet still allow them to do their thing out there.  That kind of free market warfare coupled with very specific control mechanisms is crucial to this concept.

     The LoM can also allow the government to contract with one person or an entire company.  Companies like Booz Hamilton might not be able to attract the star players of cyber warfare.  So if the government wants to get these lone wolves on their side(both foreign and domestic), the LoM and an extremely lucrative bounty or prize law system would be one way to do that. The LoM could also give that lone wolf cyber warrior a license that is signed off and approved by the nations top law makers.  That to me has more appeal than being a subcontractor for some military branch of service, and hanging in limbo as to what laws and policies I need to follow or pay attention too.  Please note all the legal issues surrounding today’s usage of private military companies in the war.  The LoM could be the answer to mitigate those issues for today’s union between private industry and the government.

     Also, the way the LoM works is pretty flexible in my view.  It can be as complex or as simple as we want to make it.  After all, congress would be the ones forming the committee to issue the things, and they would be writing the thing up.  I am sure no one would want the LoM if it did not fully answer all and any legal issues, hence ‘my lawyer will talk with your lawyer’.  That is the way I would envision this.  Because if not, no one would want to do business with Congress and the US government if it did not have all the right protections in that document.

     As to what kind of activities the cyber privateers could do?  Hmmmm. Let your imagination run wild I guess.  Basically, if China wants to use hackers to go after the US for example, those Chinese hackers would be prime targets for cyber privateers.  Hell, cyber privateers could be tasked with going after entire countries that we consider threats. You could also use cyber privateers to go after organized crime, terrorists, etc., and set up bounties for all types of activities that a congress would want their cyber privateers to do. You might want to use cyber privateers for a very specific corner of the cyber warfare market, and the imagination is the only limit. Like Thomas Jefferson once said “Every possible encouragement should be given to privateering in time of war.” Using cyber privateers to conduct cyber warfare or defend the country, is one tool that the government could implement. For further study on the subject of LoM, I would suggest the reader check out this post and publication here, and use the search feature on this blog. –Matt

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Booz Allen hiring 5,000 employees this year

Friday, May 14, 2010

Washington Business Journal – by Bryant Ruiz Switzky and Gayle S. Putrich

Consulting giant Booz Allen Hamilton Inc. is going on a major hiring binge.

The McLean-based government contractor is hiring 1,500 people over the next two months and expects to hire about 5,000 workers in 2010, some of which are rehires.

More than 60 percent of those jobs will be in the Washington area, said Leslie Esposito, director of recruiting.

Most of the positions are for consultants and include cost estimators, intelligence analysts, operations research analysts, program managers, acquisitions analysts, clinical health consultants, energy consultants, environmental consultants and human capital management and organizational efficiency experts. There is also a wide range of technology-related positions.

Story here.

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Recent Air Force Contracts with Booz Allen & Hamilton

                Booz Allen & Hamilton, Inc., Herndon, Va., was awarded a $24,302,677 contract which will provide combat-ready forces to conduct secure cyber operations in and through the electromagnetic spectrum, with air and space operations.  At this time, $496,032 has been obligated.  55 CONS/LGCD, Offutt Air Force Base, Neb., is the contracting activity (SP0700-98-D-4002, Deliver Order 0414).

                Booz Allen & Hamilton, Inc., Herndon, Va., was awarded a $24,283,152 contract which will provide innovative recommendations on information assurance disciplines for Systems Center Atlantic to develop information assurance capabilities for the Federal Compliance Program.  At this time, $122,060 has been obligated.  55 CONS/LGCD, Offutt Air Force Base, Neb., is the contracting activity (SP0700-98-D-4002, Delivery Order 0407).

                Booz Allen & Hamilton, Inc., Herndon, Va., was awarded a $23,302,445 contract which will provide instrumented live, virtual and constructive joint exercise enabled via the Joint National Training Capability’s global grid to enhance information assurance/cyber activities under U.S. Space Command’s span of control.  At this time, $2,672,756 has been obligated.  55 CONS/LGCD, Offutt Air Force Base, Neb., is the contracting activity (SP0700-98-D-4002, Delivery Order 0417).

                Booz Allen & Hamilton, Inc., Herndon, Va., was awarded a $19,835,902 contract which will provide information integrity and integration of information assurance capabilities into existing operational command and control networks and systems.  At this time, $5,000 has been obligated.  55 CONS/LGCD, Offutt Air Force Base, Neb., is the contracting activity (SP0700-98-D-4002, Delivery Order 0415).

                Booz Allen & Hamilton, Inc., Herndon, Va., was awarded a $19,831,145 contract which will define information assurance scientific and technical analysis to be applied to future military satellite communication systems development and assess vulnerabilities of emerging satellite communication systems to provide secure end-to-end communications services to deployed warfighters.  At this time, $1,607,798 has been obligated.  55 CONS/LGCD, Offutt Air Force Base, Neb., is the contracting activity (SP0700-98-D-4002, Delivery Order 0411).

                Booz Allen & Hamilton, Inc., Herndon, Va., was awarded a $15,870.840 contract which will provide secure and highly reliable network operations and computer network defense components in order to carry out Air Combat Command’s mission.  At this time, $45,120 has been obligated.  55 CONS/LGCD, Offutt Air Force Base, Neb., is the contracting activity (SP0700-98-D-4002, Deliver Order 0408).

                Booz Allen & Hamilton, Inc., Herndon, Va., was awarded a $14,877,735 contract which will provide information assurance and information systems security improvements to U.S. military ground communication systems and onboard U.S. military airborne systems and platforms.  At this time, $2,692,270 has been obligated.  55 CONS/LGCD, Offutt Air Force Base, Neb., is the contracting activity (SP0700-98-D-4002, Delivery Order 0413).

                Booz Allen & Hamilton, Inc., Herndon, Va., was awarded a $14,880,375 contract which will provide state of the art information assurance capabilities in order to increase interoperability and availability of secure information to improve decision making.  At this time, $347,793 has been obligated.  55 CONS/LGCD, Offutt Air Force Base, Neb., is the contracting activity (SP0700-98-D-4002, Delivery Order 0409).

                Booz Allen & Hamilton, Inc., Herndon, Va., was awarded an $8,925,518 contract which will develop innovative cyber security capabilities and network defense for Air Force information systems.  At this time, $164,682 has been obligated.  55 CONS/LGCD, Offutt Air Force Base, Neb., is the contracting activity (SP0700-98-D-4002, Delivery Order 0410).

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Defense Firms Pursue Cyber-Security Work

MARCH 18, 2009

By AUGUST COLE and SIOBHAN GORMAN

WASHINGTON — The biggest U.S. military contractors are counting on winning billions of dollars in work to protect the federal government against electronic attacks.

U.S. agencies from the Pentagon to the Department of Homeland Security have experienced major cyber-break-ins in recent years, even into classified systems. Cyberspies also have siphoned off critical data from Pentagon contractors, including one breach that cost a major aerospace contractor $15 million.

Intelligence officials estimate annual U.S. losses from cyber breaches to be in the billions of dollars, and some worry that cyber attackers could take control of a nuclear power plant or subway line via the Internet — or wipe out the data of a major financial institution.

(more…)

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