Economist « Feral Jundi

Thursday, February 17, 2011

Cool Stuff: Predictions On Mideast Revolution–Economist Vs. Paddy Power

Filed under: Bahrain,Cool Stuff,Yemen — Tags: Bahrain, charts, Cool Stuff, Economist, gambling, mideast revolution, odds, paddy power, predictions, shoe-thrower, Yemen — Matt @ 2:10 PM

Well, according to the Shoe-Thrower’s index Yemen is high on the list. Of course this is not as current as the Paddy Power prediction, which indicates Bahrain as the next to go. But Yemen is still a close second.

Also, if guys have radically different odds from a different source, please feel free to post those with a link in the comments section. –Matt

Edit: 02/20/2010- It looks like Paddy Power took it down. Although I will leave up the odds from that date, just for reference.

Edit: 02/22/2011- Intrade now offers contracts on who will fall next. Check it out here. Libya and Bahrain are very active.

The Shoe-Thrower’s index

Feb 9th 2011

An index of unrest in the Arab world

IN THIS week’s print edition we ran a table showing a number of indicators for members of the Arab League. By adding a few more and ascribing different weights to them we have come up with the Shoe-Thrower’s index, which aims to predict where the scent of jasmine may spread next. Some factors are hard to put a number on and are therefore discounted. For instance, dissent is harder in countries with a very repressive secret police (like Libya). The data on unemployment were too spotty to be comparable and so this important factor is discounted too. We took out the Comoros and Djibouti, which do not have a great deal in common with the rest of the group, and removed the Palestinian territories, Sudan and Somalia for lack of data. The chart below is the result of ascribing a weighting of 35% for the share of the population that is under 25; 15% for the number of years the government has been in power; 15% for both corruption and lack of democracy as measured by existing indices; 10% for GDP per person; 5% for an index of censorship and 5% for the absolute number of people younger than 25. Jordan comes out surprisingly low on the chart, which suggests the weighting might need to be tweaked. Post suggestions in the comments below and we will refine it.

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Paddy Power odds (as of Feb 17, 2011)

Next Leader To Step Down

Applies to the next country from the below list to have a prime minister/president/monarch/state leader step down due to public protests,

Must be reported by Sky News,

PP decision is final in settlement. (amount won if you bet $2)

Bahrain 3/1 $8

Yemen 7/2 9

Jordan 7/2 9

Morocco 5/1 12

Algeria 6/1 14

Libya 7/1 16

Iran 12/1 26

Iraq 16/1 34

Sudan 16/1 34

Saudi Arabia 20/1 42

Syria 20/1 42

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Wednesday, March 4, 2009

Somalia: Just a Glimmer of Hope, Economist

Filed under: Africa,Somalia — Tags: Economist, executive outcomes, security contracting, Shabab, Somalia, UN — Matt @ 11:45 PM

Some suggest extending the mandate of the AU’s present embattled force of Ugandans and Burundians for another year. The AU troops could perhaps be bolstered by private security firms to let UN offices and foreign embassies be re-established in Somalia, helping Mr Ahmed get a grip on Mogadishu. At the least, the airport should be secured. The UN’s special envoy, Ahmedou Ould-Abdallah, a former foreign minister of Mauritania, says he is determined to move his office from Nairobi. “Why [is there a green zone] in Baghdad and Kabul but not in Mogadishu?”, he asks plaintively.

This was taken out of the very last section of this article, as a possible solution to help this newest Somali president. The idea is very interesting, and it is nice to see the Economist even include PSC’s in the discussion about possible solutions. As far as this being a good idea, I don’t know. The big problem I see with this, is the strategic implications. PSC’s must be viewed as plausible solutions, and not money hungry mercenaries. So however they are used, it must totally be geared towards Ahmed’s country wide strategy, and countering the Shabab.

The Shabab will totally use the presence of foreigners, much like they did with Ethiopia troops, as a tool to justify Shabab ‘Taliban-like’ rule in Somalia. So however PSC’s are used, they must be viewed as the protector of the people and a temporary tool of the government–but they must also deliver on the goods and quickly. There must also be a proper PR campaign implemented, and it should be included in the contract, before any insertion of PSC’s or PMC’s. And once on the ground, it will be a total battle for the hearts and minds of the people, along with being effective in protecting the people and the legitimately elected government. It can happen, and Executive Outcomes was able to do just that in Angola and Sierra Leone, and Somalia could benefit from a similar effort. Things to think about. –Matt

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Somalia’s civil war

Just a glimmer of hope

Feb 26th 2009 | NAIROBI

From The Economist print edition

After 18 years of strife, there is a small chance that a new Somali president and a new American one could make a fresh start.

THE most smashed-up country in the world has reached a crossroads. The recent election of a moderate Islamist, Sharif Ahmed (pictured above), as Somalia’s new president may offer the best chance of peace in the country for more than a decade. As head of the Islamic Courts Union that held sway over a chunk of Somalia in 2006, he was later driven into exile by invading Ethiopian troops backed by America. So it was quite a turnaround when, on his first day in office a few weeks ago, this courteous former geography teacher went to Ethiopia and got a standing ovation from heads of state in its capital, Addis Ababa, at an African Union (AU) jamboree.

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Wednesday, December 31, 2008

Crime: The ‘Real’ Lord of War, Viktor Bout

Filed under: Crime,Weapons Stuff — Tags: Economist, viktor bout, Weapons — Matt @ 2:59 PM

This guy is pretty interesting, and has definitely done some amazing things in the field of weapons delivery. But like most who walk the line between legal and illegal weapons delivery, you always face the potential of getting caught one day. Viktor made things happen out there, but at what price to self and others? But on the other hand, everyone has done business with the guy, because he could get things done in really crappy places. The movie Lord of War staring Nicolas Cage was about his exploits, and there are plenty of stories, books, and articles about him. And after he got caught in Thailand, the Economist wrote this recent article. –Matt

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International man of mystery

Flying anything to anybody

Dec 18th 2008

From The Economist print edition

The rise and fall of Viktor Bout, arms-dealer extraordinaire, shows a darker side of globalisation

VIKTOR BOUT knew, long before his plane lifted off from Moscow, that they meant to snatch him. For years he had hunkered down in the Russian capital, making only rare forays abroad. Western spies, the United Nations and do-gooder activists were after him. They said that he had smashed arms embargoes and struck deals with a remarkable axis of ne’er-do-wells: supplying weapons and air-transport to the Taliban, abetting despots and revolutionaries in Africa and South America, aiding Hizbullah in Lebanon and Islamists in Somalia. He also found time to supply American forces in Iraq, perhaps al-Qaeda too, and maybe even Chechen rebels.

He denied all wrongdoing and, no doubt, thought his accusers irritating and hypocritical. But until the fuss died away he knew that he was safe only in Russia, from where extradition was impossible.

Yet Mr Bout, a puzzling, amoral and intelligent man, made a poor choice in March, leaving behind his wife and daughter and flying to Bangkok. As a consequence he may end up in New York as the star of a trial that would provoke echoes of cold-war spy games, further chilling relations between the West and Russia.

A shy and plump man, for years his only public image was a grainy, Soviet-era passport photo. That shows a dumpy, youngish face, with drooping eyes peering above a thick, triangular, moustache—the sort one might buy in a joke shop. He was probably born in what is now Tajikistan but, as with the picture, details of his life are fuzzy. American prosecutors say that he uses at least half a dozen passports and more aliases, including “Butt”, “Budd”, “Boris”, “Bulakin” and “Aminov”. A gifted linguist, he slips easily between as many languages as he has names.

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Thursday, July 24, 2008

News: How to Win the War Within Islam, from the Economist

Filed under: Afghanistan,Al Qaeda,Iraq — Tags: Al Qaeda, Economist, terrorism — Matt @ 11:44 PM

This was an excellent special report written by the good people at the Economist. Be sure to follow the link I provided and read the entire thing, because this was just the teaser article below. There were lot’s of great ideas in this report, and I highly recommend reading it. What was really motivating to me, was to read about the current state of Al Qaeda and how we have actually accomplished some pretty remarkable things.

For me, Al Qaeda has always symbolized an idea more than anything. And AQ has certainly tarnished the rest of the Islamic world with their war. And like the article pointed out, the one thing that really hurts them in this war, is their killing of other muslims in the name of Allah. And when one of the founders of Al Qaeda named Dr. Ladl even says that Al Qaeda has gone too far, then I think we are starting to make some headway in this war.

And what really gets me, is that in Iraq, Zarqawi and company proclaimed that Iraq will be the main battle ground to fight the infidels at. Soon after this proclamation, we killed Zarqawi and then the surge happened and the rest is what we have today. A Iraq that is significantly better than it was, and Al Qaeda being run out of town by the Iraqis and the Coalition. The turning point with AQ was when Iraqis said enough was enough, and joined forces with us to rid the country of these islamic extremists. My point with this, is that the surge and our new counter-insurgency strategy was certainly a contributing factor, for this victory against AQ. And I say victory, because they are now a shadow of themselves in Iraq.

I also think it is significant what Saudi Arabia has been able to do in this war. I would have certainly expected AQ to have carried out several massive and successful attacks by now. But it seems that Saudi Arabia has done a pretty good job of putting down AQ, and I am sure Bin Laden and company have been biting their lip about that one. Bin Laden has always held a grudge against the Saudi Royal family, and it must kill him that Al Qaeda of Saudi Arabia sucks.

So now they are all running to Afghanistan, to join the fight there I guess. And to me, this is one of the most complex problems we have right now to deal with in this war. In Pakistan, you have the FATA region where AQ and the Taliban have been training and enjoying a safe haven. And then during the fighting season(summer), they make the cross over into Afghanistan and cause trouble. Couple that with the poppy situation(drugs for guns) and a nation ravaged by years of war and terrible infrastructure, and we have a really complex problem to solve there. And I am not even sure if more troops will solve this. We’ll see how it goes, because I think Afghanistan will be a huge deal in the coming months and then next summer with a new US President. I am optimistic, with Petraeus and company at the helm. If anyone could think up the correct strategy, it is the batch of warrior leaders we have right now. –Head Jundi

OBL

How to win the war within Islam

Jul 17th 2008

From The Economist print edition

In the long run, al-Qaeda will be defeated by Muslims, not foreigners. But the West can still help

AMERICA’S “global war on terrorism”, now in its seventh year, has gone on longer than the second world war. Will it ever end? Optimists believe some kind of victory is in sight: Iraq is improving; al-Qaeda has been unable to stage a big attack in the West in three years; and terrorists have shown little sign of using weapons of mass destruction. Jihadists face an ideological backlash, even from radical “brothers” who support jihad but disagree with killing Muslims.

Welcome as al-Qaeda’s setbacks may be, the world should not be complacent. As our special report in this issue explains, the threat is likely to last for decades. One reason is that al-Qaeda, though weaker in Iraq, has created a new sanctuary in Pakistan’s tribal belt. Another is that al-Qaeda’s ideology has spread far and wide thanks to the internet and ease of travel. A third is that anti-Americanism remains powerful across the Muslim world. Only a tiny proportion of the world’s billion or so Muslims need to take up jihad to create serious trouble.

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