Feral Jundi

Wednesday, August 18, 2010

Afghanistan: Anti-Corruption Unit Pressure, Plus Coming Elections Equals ‘Crazy Karzai’!!

     Any chance I can use ‘Crazy Karzai’ in the title of anything, is a good thing. lol Now back to the post.

     Here is the assessment. I really think Karzai thinks this is his ‘Ace in the hole’. Meaning he was planning on pulling this stupid decree out of his funny hat as a means to push back against this pressure we are putting on him about his crap government. Because at face value, not only is this decree silly, but it will probably backfire on him in a dangerous way.

     If let’s say he thought he would get some votes out of this populist move, at the end of the day he still has to deal with the Taliban. He will also have to deal with an entire group of unemployed Afghan security contractors who will probably hop on over to the Taliban out of anger–or just do nothing. He might get some of them to join the army or police. It’s hard to say who goes where, but I do know that this is a big gamble for him politically. And what happens when people get more angry because violence increases due to this massive removal of multiple private security operations across the country?

     I also think that this anti-corruption unit is going to go on the offensive during the elections. Karzai’s competition will have plenty of material for firing up the populace and ripping apart the incumbent. This upcoming election is heavy on his mind, and he knows (thanks to Senator Kerry’s shot across the bow’) that we mean business this time. I for one would love to see him voted out of office. Someone needs to hold that office, that both the Afghans and the Coalition forces fighting in that war can believe in…. and possibly die for, in battle.

     Below I found all the most pertinent stories to help you out in making your own assessments. From some Afghan security company’s responses to the whole thing, to the details of this last diplomatic mission which freaked Karzai out and forced his hand on this. So at this point, it is all about politics. –Matt

Afghan plan to shut private security firms may endanger convoys

If Afghanistan dissolves security firms, guards will join Taliban, some predict

Karzai Plays to the Crowd with Threatened Ouster of Afghan Contractors

U.S. sends warning to Afghanistan, and John Kerry delivers the message

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Afghan plan to shut private security firms may endanger convoys

By DION NISSENBAUM AND HASHIM SHUKOOR

August 16, 2010

KABUL, Afghanistan — Afghan President Hamid Karzai’s office abruptly announced plans on Monday to close all the country’s polarizing private security companies by year’s end, a decision that could create more risk for the U.S.-led military along crucial supply routes into Afghanistan.

In an announcement that appeared to catch NATO officials by surprise, Karzai vowed to shutter the lucrative network of private security firms.

“The government of Afghanistan has decided that the security companies have to go,” Karzai spokesman Waheed Omar said.

If the president follows through with the short timeline, the decision could strip NATO supply routes of the private forces, which have provided protection for convoys that come under constant attack.

It would force diplomatic missions, including the U.S. Embassy in Kabul, to find some other way to protect their compounds.

It also could create a volatile new pool of disaffected militants, some of whom already are suspected of having links with the Taliban and of staging attacks on convoys that are passing through their areas.

“Security will get worse,” warned Matiullah Khan, one of the country’s more influential figures in the murky security convoy business. “The police can’t provide security in the provinces, so how can they escort convoys?”

The private security industry, a complex network of registered international companies and unregulated Afghan militias, employs 26,000 people working on U.S. contracts, according to NATO officials. The vast majority of them – about 19,000 – work on military contracts.

The companies have come under fire from almost every front.

Karzai long has argued that the firms act as a parallel security force that undermines the nation’s police and army.

Many Afghans fear convoy security guards, who have been accused of wildly opening fire and killing civilians while protecting their routes.

Last month, contractors with DynCorp International were involved in a fatal car crash in Kabul that sparked violent anti-American protests and raised fears that the isolated demonstration could devolve into widespread rioting.

Some of the firms have been accused of using their familial ties to the Karzai government to secure millions of dollars in NATO contracts. Two of Karzai’s cousins run one major security company. The defense minister’s son runs another.

U.S. officials also have expressed concerns over long-standing allegations that the security firms use NATO funds for the contracts to pay insurgents not to attack the convoys.

Wednesday, October 21, 2009

Logistics: Afghanistan Election Runoff Poses Daunting Challenges

Filed under: Afghanistan,Logistics — Tags: , , , , , — Matt @ 11:20 AM

   You know, I read through this and wondered to myself, how is this possible that such an important event, was treated with such reckless disregard.  Both by the coalition and by the Afghan government?  This just kills me. There was a lot riding on this election, and it has turned into a disaster.  The Taliban love it, because it has turned into a wonderful propaganda tool.

   All grumbling aside, this is what my solution to the elections mission would have been.  I would have treated it just like a forest fire here in the US.  And if these guys only have three weeks now, to do a second runoff election, good luck.  But either way, if I had the time we had prior to the first election, here are a few of my suggestions for running this so called logistical nightmare.

    First off, this is not a logistical nightmare.  It is a challenge, and it requires organization and the correct management structure to make sure it runs smoothly and efficiently. It needs to be broken off into manageable sections that answer to a structure that makes sense. That organizational structure should have been Incident Command.

     I have talked about this system, over and over again, and here we are looking at a situation that would have been perfect for this kind of command system.  That’s if everyone was signed off on one command system to get something like this done.  That is the beauty of fire, because in that world, no matter where you come from or what your job is, you will know Incident Command and you will live Incident Command.  It is the only way to get unity of effort between city, state, federal, and international resources.  There is no other system that is as efficient and effective as this system of emergency management, and why we are not using it in places like Afghanistan, is beyond me.  Afghanistan is filled with civilian and military groups from all over the world, all with different languages and different command systems and different ideas of what is what.  We are having a heck of time with unity of effort, and this election and the war effort as a whole shows signs of that all the time.

   I bring up fires earlier, because often times, entire cities of workers and disaster relief specialists all gather under one banner command, and over the immediate need of a certain fire that has grown out of control.  Everything from helicopters to fire tankers to communications tents and chow halls and shower trucks etc., all from cities, states, federal agencies, and international actors are all brought in to the fight.  That fight could be up in the mountains, only accessible by helicopter, or could be in a city.  The fight could be spread amongst multiple fires caused by lightning strikes, and the developing fire storm requires the kind of incident management system that flexes, evolves and only contributes to a unity of effort.  It is an amazing system to watch in action.

   So lets fast forward to Afghanistan.  Tell me again who is organizing the election monitoring and security effort? Has the command effectively met the needs of the election and did they accomplish their goal?  I don’t think so, and it is pretty apparent by the millions of fraudulent votes that something was terribly wrong with the planning of this thing.

   Incident Command would have been able to recognize the short comings in the system, it could have flexed and expanded easily with the ever evolving situation, and it would have been very easy for all involved to understand the process and operate together under one goal.

   The other thing I have to get off my chest, is that there should be no excuse about a lack of manpower for this.  I know there are thousands of contractors looking for work, who would have gladly taken on a short term mission in Afghanistan, specifically for the election.  If Blackwater, along with the dozens of other security contracting companies during the Hurricane Katrina disaster, could spin up teams and get them out in the field within days of the disaster, then we can spin up the necessary troops for security for these elections in Afghanistan.

   As for the makeup of this kind of security force?  I would have had three components–military, contractor, and local national security forces.  I have seen this combination work before, and it would have worked here.  The military(NATO, ISAF) runs the radios, CAS, command and control and QRF for regions or the sites, the contractors work as a liaisons and managers of the local national forces, and the local national security contractors would answer to the contractors and military.  Going hybrid like this, would have worked just fine and they could have all fallen under the command of a Incident Commander for that site.  The IC would be tasked with monitoring and managing every aspect of the mission at that particular voting site.

   With excellent planning and vision, these teams could have been recruited and inserted in a timely manner. If the teams all operated under an Incident Command structure, we could have assigned Incident Commanders to each site.  These IC’s would be the ones to communicate exactly what is needed, and what are the problems.  Tie everything into dispatch centers located throughout the region, and set up Type 1 Management Teems throughout the country as central points for the effort.  IC’s and the Type 1 Management Teams could have everyone (civilian and military) operating under one system of management, and everyone would have one command language to operate under.  Everyone should know what a IC is, or Air Operations, or Logistics, etc. Keep it simple, and don’t fight the incident, but evolve with it.  The proof is in the pudding, and if you want to organize chaos and win that logistics fight, then Incident Command is the way to go. –Matt

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   The best part of this, is that the troops could have stayed focus on battling Taliban, as opposed to taking on this election mission.  Delegate the mission folks, and I think contractors could have been used for this, if indeed there was a manpower issue.

Afghanistan election runoff poses daunting challenges

A second round of voting in the Afghanistan election, set for Nov. 7, adds security and logistical difficulties to a process already marred by fraud.

By Ben Arnoldy

October 20, 2009

Kabul, Afghanistan – Flanked by a slew of international statesmen Tuesday, President Hamid Karzai put a second round Afghan election on the calendar, adding daunting new security and logistical pressures to an already deeply troubled election effort.

To this point, observers widely doubted the fraud-marred election would go into a runoff. But Mr. Karzai went for a runoff, rejecting speculation that he and his rival, Abdullah Abdullah, would sidestep another vote through a powersharing deal.

“A coalition government, no, there is no place for a coalition government in the law. There is no legitimacy in that,” Karzai told reporters. “A new set of elections will be held in about 14 days’ time,” he added.

On several occasions, Karzai mentioned “14 days,” the window given by the Constitution. Such a rapid runoff would be extremely difficult to conduct and – for it to inspire confidence – would require an immediate, major mobilization of people, money, and institutions.

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Friday, February 6, 2009

Iraq: Elections Deliver a Victory for US Goals

Filed under: Iraq — Tags: , , — Matt @ 9:50 AM

   Very cool news, and I am impressed by the preliminary results so far. –Matt 

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Iraqi Elections Deliver A Victory for U.S. Goals

By Sudarsan Raghavan and Ernesto Londoño

Washington Post Foreign Service

Thursday, February 5, 2009

BAGHDAD, Feb. 5 — Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki posted significant victories in Iraq’s provincial elections, winning Baghdad and eight provinces in Iraq’s Shiite south, according to official preliminary results released Thursday.

In voting for Maliki and his allies, Iraqis appeared to be supporting a strong central government and rewarding the prime minister for sending in government forces to fight Shiite militias in the southern city of Basra and Baghdad’s Sadr City enclave. Maliki’s State of Law coalition won 38 percent of the votes in Baghdad and 37 percent in Basra.

But with the exception of these two provinces, Maliki and his allies won by close margins in the other seven provinces and will need to build coalitions with other parties. At the same time, the slim margins could also allow other parties to come together in opposition to Maliki.

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Sunday, February 1, 2009

Iraq: 51 % Turn Out and 4,000 Women Candidates–Where is the Media?

Filed under: Iraq — Tags: , , — Matt @ 12:08 PM

   A couple of things with this.  First, the reporting on this is painful.  You have those journalists and MSM groups who did not support the war in Iraq, who are already promoting this election as a bust or not significant.  And then you have the other journalists promoting how kick ass this is.  What is the real deal you might say?  I say use common sense on this, and look at the facts.  

    As for my thoughts, I am extremely impressed with this election so far, and the voter turn out of 51% now  compared to the 2% in 2005 and the involvement of over 4,000 women running for office are very significant events in my opinion. That is awesome news, and that tells me that Iraqis are actually getting involved with the development of their country.  Isn’t that what we have been trying to get up and running over there?  Isn’t that how you defeat the enemy, with a state that is able to protect and govern itself, and work towards peace, stability, and eventually prosperity?  This is progress, yet no one cares.  Pffft.   Thanks to Arwa Damon for reporting the real story(although it is CNN-lol) and insh-allah.  –Matt 

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Iraqi Women, CNN

Iraqi women show off their ink-stained fingers after voting Saturday in Baghdad.

Peace, high turnout reported at Iraq polls

02/01/09

    * Story Highlights

    * 51 percent turnout a sharp contrast to 2005 election, when only 2 percent voted

    * Election commission chief: Most important election since Saddam Hussein fell

    * The election was seen as a referendum on the popularity of Iraqi PM

BAGHDAD, Iraq (CNN) — Half of Iraq’s registered voters turned out for peaceful provincial elections this weekend, the election commission said Sunday.

The turnout of 7.5 million voters starkly contrasted with elections in 2005, when the violence and intimidation of al Qaeda in Iraq kept voters away from the polls and only 2 percent of eligible voters participated.

Faraj al-Haidari, the head of the Independent High Electoral Commission, called the turnout this year “very high” for provincial elections in any country. Fifty-one percent of the 14.9 million registered voters cast ballots.

(more…)

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