Feral Jundi

Thursday, February 17, 2011

Cool Stuff: Predictions On Mideast Revolution–Economist Vs. Paddy Power

     Well, according to the Shoe-Thrower’s index Yemen is high on the list.  Of course this is not as current as the Paddy Power prediction, which indicates Bahrain as the next to go.  But Yemen is still a close second.

    Also, if guys have radically different odds from a different source, please feel free to post those with a link in the comments section. –Matt

Edit: 02/20/2010- It looks like Paddy Power took it down.  Although I will leave up the odds from that date, just for reference.

Edit: 02/22/2011- Intrade now offers contracts on who will fall next. Check it out here. Libya and Bahrain are very active.

The Shoe-Thrower’s index

Feb 9th 2011

An index of unrest in the Arab world

IN THIS week’s print edition we ran a table showing a number of indicators for members of the Arab League. By adding a few more and ascribing different weights to them we have come up with the Shoe-Thrower’s index, which aims to predict where the scent of jasmine may spread next. Some factors are hard to put a number on and are therefore discounted. For instance, dissent is harder in countries with a very repressive secret police (like Libya). The data on unemployment were too spotty to be comparable and so this important factor is discounted too. We took out the Comoros and Djibouti, which do not have a great deal in common with the rest of the group, and removed the Palestinian territories, Sudan and Somalia for lack of data. The chart below is the result of ascribing a weighting of 35% for the share of the population that is under 25; 15% for the number of years the government has been in power; 15% for both corruption and lack of democracy as measured by existing indices; 10% for GDP per person; 5% for an index of censorship and 5% for the absolute number of people younger than 25. Jordan comes out surprisingly low on the chart, which suggests the weighting might need to be tweaked. Post suggestions in the comments below and we will refine it.

——————————————————————

Paddy Power odds (as of Feb 17, 2011)

Next Leader To Step Down

Applies to the next country from the below list to have a prime minister/president/monarch/state leader step down due to public protests,

Must be reported by Sky News,

PP decision is final in settlement. (amount won if you bet $2)

Bahrain 3/1               $8

Yemen 7/2                   9

Jordan 7/2                   9

Morocco 5/1               12

Algeria 6/1                 14

Libya 7/1                    16

Iran 12/1                    26

Iraq 16/1                    34

Sudan 16/1                 34

Saudi Arabia 20/1    42

Syria 20/1                  42

(more…)

Thursday, February 18, 2010

Quotes: Norm Augustine’s Prediction For 2010–Industry More Competitor With Government

   The way he worded this quote and the points brought up are certainly compelling.  That private industry is a competitor with government, over the ninety percent of assets out there that are privately owned.  Think about it this way, would you rather have the TSA guarding your business, or a company like Triple Canopy?  If you have the money, and you are really concerned about who you want to use for security services, do you ‘hope’ the government can protect you, or do you go for the sure thing and go with private security? And can you even depend upon what limited resources the government has, to be everywhere at once?  How about for oil companies or refineries?   Or how about information technology or internet giants like Google?  Who do these folks turn to for protection, the government or private industry?

     My favorite one is the media.  Did they beg the government to protect them as they gallop across the world, reporting on disasters or events related to our military and the war?  Maybe for the embeds they are able to depend upon the military, but for the most part, they just hire former Special Forces guys to protect them.  You won’t hear about the media contracting with the big companies, because they have to have someone to take a giant crap on with sensational stories.  So they turn to individuals or small teams to get their high dollar security.

      Either way, interesting words coming from the former CEO of Lockheed Martin. Check it out. –Matt

—————————————————————–

Norm Augustine

Industry More Competitor with Government (From ExecutiveBiz)

Norm Augustine’s 2010 Prediction:

“The issues facing the nation and the world increasingly transcend the ability of either government or industry to solve alone. For example, the government clearly has overall responsibility for homeland security, yet 90 percent of the assets to be protected currently reside in the private sector.

“At the same time, as the federal debt grows along with the non-discretionary part of the federal budget, heightening fiscal pressures will be placed on the procurement process. As a consequence, industry is unfortunately likely to find itself more and more a competitor with government than a partner … with proven bad ideas rising from the ashes yet another time (e.g., fixed price research and development contracting).  The problem will be exacerbated by the inability/unwillingness of qualified individuals with industry experience to serve terms in government.

“As one who has spent a significant part of his professional life in each government and industry, I truly hope the above is wrong but that would not be how I would bet.”

(Norm Augustine is retired Chairman and CEO, Lockheed Martin Corp.)

 

Tuesday, December 22, 2009

Cool Stuff: TED–Bruce Bueno De Mesquita Predicts Iran’s Future

Filed under: Cool Stuff,Iran,Video — Tags: , , , , , — Matt @ 10:25 AM

Powered by WordPress