Feral Jundi

Sunday, April 11, 2010

Afghanistan: Polish and Kyrgyz Black Swan Events

Filed under: Afghanistan,Kyrgyzstan,Poland — Tags: , , , , , , , — Matt @ 12:58 AM

   My heart goes out to Poland.  How incredibly tragic.  My heart goes out to the folks in Kyrgyzstan as well, and political upheaval is certainly a traumatic event for the people there.

   I put this in the Afghanistan category, because as we speak, there are several thousand Polish troops in Afghanistan that could possibly be called back to deal with their crisis. When the entire leadership is wiped out by an unfortunate air crash, there are just too many possibilities of what could happen. There was not much support for the war in Afghanistan, and new leadership might change direction on Poland’s involvement in the war.  I think it would be wise for today’s war planners to set in place some contingency stuff, if in fact Poland wants or even needs their troops back home.

   So that brings up the question, who would replace those troops if they had to scoot?  I brought this up a couple weeks ago in regards to NATO forces faltering and for whatever reason, having to leave the Afghan war. That contractors can be used to back fill, as NATO or ISAF finds replacement forces.

   In Kyrgyzstan, there has been some political unrest that has impacted Manas operations.  They actually halted all flights out of there today, and that is not good.  If logistics cannot depend upon the Manas air base there, then other options will have to be looked at.  The problem is though, that so much logistics goes through Manas, that there is a risk that operations will be negatively impacted in Afghanistan because of this hiccup. So will this mean that a new route or new air base will come on to the scene?  Will transportation on land increase because of what is going on, and what will that mean for private industry?

   I also called these incidents a Black Swan event, because they were not predicted, they will change the political landscape, and war planners will now have to look at contingency plans to deal with problems related to both of these countries. –Matt 

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Poland’s President, Central Bank Governor Die in Plane Crash

April 10, 2010

By David McQuaid and Piotr Skolimowski

April 11 (Bloomberg) — Polish President Lech Kaczynski and central bank Governor Slawomir Skrzypek were killed yesterday along with several key members of the country’s political elite when their plane crashed in western Russia, where they were to mark the 70th anniversary of a massacre of Polish officers.

The 60-year-old president’s wife, Maria, and leaders of the country’s main opposition parties and military, including the Army Chief of Staff Franciszek Gagor, also died, Foreign Ministry spokesman Piotr Paszkowski said in a phone interview. The crash, which happened as the aircraft was on approach for landing in Smolensk, killed all 96 on board, according to Russia’s Emergency Ministry.

Under Poland’s constitution the duties of the president, which are largely ceremonial, will be assumed by the speaker of the lower house of parliament, Bronislaw Komorowski. He will set a date for a presidential election within two weeks and the vote must be held within 60 days. Komorowski is the candidate of Prime Minister Donald Tusk’s Civic Platform party and polls show he was poised to defeat Kaczynski in presidential elections, originally scheduled for the second half of the year.

(more…)

Thursday, April 8, 2010

Strategy: ‘The Toyota Horde’ And More Hybrid Warfare Stuff

Filed under: Iran,Israel,PMC 2.0,Publications,Strategy — Tags: , , , , , , , — Matt @ 1:40 AM

   I love papers like this, because these are the kind of deals that ruffle the feathers of Tankers and Armor fans, as well as status quo military thinkers. Thanks to Small Wars Journal for publishing it. Basically, William has presented some excellent low cost hybrid warfare concepts that should be of great interest to the military and PMC’s. It’s a different way of looking at armor and maneuver warfare as it applies to small countries and armies, and today’s wars.

   The concept revolves around using small pickups that are easily available throughout the world as a means to transport troops and really modern weaponry–like Javelins for example.  He goes into how Hezbollah fought the Israelis in 2006, and used that war as an example of the kind of fight that would benefit from the Toyota Horde idea.

   Especially if Hezbollah actually had better proficiency with their anti-tank weapons.  If they had actually trained with those weapons and got proficient before that battle, they could have easily upped the numbers of kills.  Javelins and other fire and forget weapons would have been a game changer and the Israelis would have really felt the sting. But just basic anti-tank gunnery skills would have really changed the dynamic.

   The pickup can also be used for the hard work of fortifying a region or prepping the battlefield, much like what Hezbollah did.  They planted IED’s all over the place, set up tank traps, built rocket hides, you name it.  Cheap local trucks, that can quickly transport people, bombs and tools all over the place, are all you need for that endeavor.  And with fortified regions, hybrid armies actually want to be attacked so they can suck in armored columns into their traps.  Then attacks on the logistics can be set up, as well as attacks on individual tanks and APC’s, all using the stuff that was planted.  Much like what Hezbollah did.

   The trucks can also disappear into the population.  Hell, you could use taxis as transports, and really blend into society.  If the trucks are attacked, a group like Hezbollah could kill some civilians, throw them in those trucks, film it and put it all on youtube and say the attacking force killed these innocents.  In essence, these local vehicle/military transports, are the ultimate tools for hybrid warfare and playing the propaganda game to your advantage.

   Now to put on my PMC hat.  Imagine contracting your services to a country, in order to build up regional fortifications and set up this Toyota Horde and Hezbollah style hybrid warfare concept?  It would be cheap, quick to get off the ground, and pretty effective if done correctly. You could also use the country’s current weapon systems to add to those regional fortifications, much like what William was talking about in his paper.  You could also use these ideas, if PMC’s ever had to fight other PMC’s in the coming future. (big if) Notice that the New Rules Of War fit nicely with this paper as well. Interesting stuff and maybe the ‘Somali technicals’ are the wave of the future? lol –Matt

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The classic Somali Technical…. Bring on the Toyota Horde!!

The Toyota Horde: Examining a Lost Cost Military Capability

by William F. Owen

Download the full article: The Toyota Horde

The subject of this article is a broad technical and operational examination of how almost any country on earth can currently gain a viable level of military power by building on the enduring elements of combined arms warfare. These elements are enduring and appeared in the first twenty years of the twentieth century. It is further suggested that skillfully applied this type of capability may enable its user to confront and possibly defeat NATO type expeditionary forces.

A number of popular opinions about the future nature of warfare have created a substantially misleading impression that the skills and equipment required for formation level combined arms capability, such as that possessed by NATO during the cold war is no longer needed, because few potential enemies possess similar peer capability. Thus the object of the article is to show just how simply a peer or near-peer capability can be acquired, and maintained.

Contrary to popular belief, there are many examples of where military action by irregular forces has inflicted battlefield defeats on regular forces. The most famous are the Boer defeats of the British Army during “Black Week” in December 1899 and the Hussite Wars of the 15th Century, where irregular forces, using improvised barricades made of ox wagons (wagenburgs) were able to stand against and defeat the armoured knights of the Holy Roman Empire. In both cases each irregular force was able to generate conventional military force from fairly meager resources. There is nothing novel, new or even complex, in this approach. It is common, enduring and proven.

Download the full article: The Toyota Horde

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William F Owen is British and was born in Singapore in 1963. Privately educated, he joined the Army in 1981, and served in both regular and territorial units until resigning in 1993 to work on defense and advisory projects in Kuwait, Taiwan, Algeria, the Philippines, and Sierra Leone. An accomplished glider, fixed wing and helicopter pilot, he works as a writer, broadcaster and defence analyst.

Monday, April 5, 2010

Law Enforcement: Binational Contract Killers–Barrio Aztecas And The Artistic Assassins

Filed under: Law Enforcement,Mexico — Tags: , , , , , , , — Matt @ 1:47 AM

   Interesting story and this ties in with my bounties post on Eduardo Ravelo, the captain of the Barrio Aztecas.  The one point to clue in on, is that these guys are getting good at what they are doing with each and every operation, and their hits are becoming increasingly more complex and coordinated.  The question is, who is training and developing such lethal programs, and what is the next level? I personally think that we will see more IED related hits in the future, and these hit squads will evolve much like Al Qaeda and company has evolved.  They will use the most efficient means necessary to get the job done and strike terror in their opponents.  If hit squads are targeting cops or military with IEDs, that will definitely change the tune of operations real quick.

   The other point is the whole ‘binational contract killer’ concept.  Yet again, these groups have found the weakness that lies within the states.  These folks are using the border to their advantage, and because they enjoy being somewhat binational, they can operate pretty freely on both sides and blend in.  Of course law enforcement does not have that luxury, nor do bounty hunters or any other tools of the state. –Matt

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New adversary in U.S. drug war: Contract killers for Mexican cartels

By William BoothWashington Post Foreign ServiceSunday, April 4, 2010

CIUDAD JUAREZ, MEXICO — A cross-border drug gang born in the prison cells of Texas has evolved into a sophisticated paramilitary killing machine that U.S. and Mexican officials suspect is responsible for thousands of assassinations here, including the recent ambush and slaying of three people linked to the U.S. consulate.

The heavily tattooed Barrio Azteca gang members have long operated across the border in El Paso, dealing drugs and stealing cars. But in Ciudad Juarez, the organization now specializes in contract killing for the Juarez drug cartel. According to U.S. law enforcement officers, it may have been involved in as many as half of the 2,660 killings in the city in the past year.

Officials on both sides of the border have watched as the Aztecas honed their ability to locate targets, stalk them and finally strike in brazen ambushes involving multiple chase cars, coded radio communications, coordinated blocking maneuvers and disciplined firepower by masked gunmen in body armor. Afterward, the assassins vanish, back to safe houses in the Juarez barrios or across the bridge to El Paso.

“Within their business of killing, they have surveillance people, intel people and shooters. They have a degree of specialization,” said David Cuthbertson, special agent in charge of the FBI’s El Paso division. “They work day in and day out, with a list of people to kill, and they get proficient at it.”

(more…)

Thursday, April 1, 2010

Industry Talk: Wartime Contractors Need More Federal Guidance

Filed under: Industry Talk,Iraq — Tags: , , , , , , — Matt @ 1:04 AM

     Not the point, said Thibault. “There are two parties that sign the contract: the government, and they have an obligation to keep track of what they’re doing; and the company, and they have an obligation to perform the contract in the most efficient and effective manner. And that’s why I say there’s ample remedial work for both.” 

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   The government is being somewhat unfair and kind of stupid about this. I put all of the blame on the feds for any issues that arise with this drawdown.  We have had plenty of time to plan and modify contracts, and there are plenty of reports that spell out exactly what the government should do in order to manage this stuff–but they continue to not do it.

    If folks would get off their butts and see for themselves what the companies are doing, then the government–who are the ones ‘writing the check’, should exercise the right to call BS on anything that is in direct conflict with the contract.  But if there is nothing in the contract about the drawdown, nor has there been any renegotiations with the companies about that drawdown, well then of course companies are going to continue doing what they are doing. So with that quote up top, I think it is backwards. It is the government who should have an obligation to perform contract oversight in the most efficient and effective manner.  The companies are just working off that current contract, and it is on the government to enforce it or modify it if there are issues. Or is this where companies are supposed to be doing their own thing now?  Pfffft.

   My other point with this, is that the government should be very careful in how they go about doing this.  Contractors have families back home, and they also vote.  If you screw over a contractor who signed an agreement/contract with their company, because of your poor planning and managment, well then you have just lost one more constituent. Especially during a time of extreme unemployment back home.

   Everyone working in Iraq knows that things are winding down. But there is a right way to cut away people, and a wrong way.  The right way, is for the government to effectively and quickly communicate to the companies exactly what it wants as the situation develops–and modify the contract to deal with that reality. Communicate, communicate, and communicate!!! The government should have lots of folks out there, looking at the operations of all the companies and work, and continually assessing how things are going.  There should not be any surprises, and it just takes leadership and getting off your ass and doing it, to make sure it is properly managed.

    And in turn, the companies should be honest with their contractors when they get any kind of contract news, and give them sufficient warning when they are to be let go. We just need a heads up, so we know when to start looking for another job. That is the descent thing to do, but somehow I just don’t see it happening that way. –Matt

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Wartime contractors need more federal guidance

March 30, 2010

By Suzanne Kubota

While the military is “aggressively accomplishing its drawdown” in Iraq, industry “is lagging in their efforts” to do so, according to the Commission on Wartime Contracting.

“In fact,” Commission co-chair Michael Thibault told Federal News Radio, “there are come very noticeable examples that were brought out (in a hearing yesterday) where there are a lot of people sitting around waiting to work.”

The problem, said Thibault, involves a lot of finger pointing.

This is one of those deals that’s kind of like “Where’s Waldo?” The military would tell you that they’re communicating reasonably effectively and that the contractor has a responsibility, when they see very substantial numbers of staff idle, to notify them and that it’s not occuring. And the companies will… play the other side out, which is they just weren’t getting the guidance (from Defense) and the only way they can work… I mean if they’re over-staffed, that’s unfortunate, but if the only way they can react is to get guidance from their contracting officer and absent that they’re obligated to keep that staff there.

(more…)

Monday, March 29, 2010

Aviation: Drones Slowly Becoming The New ‘Virtual Fence’ On Border

Filed under: Aviation,Law Enforcement,Mexico,Texas — Tags: , , , , , , , — Matt @ 1:53 AM

   So are we actually shutting down the virtual fence, or are we just using a different method of creating a virtual fence? I also want to highlight another ongoing saga involving drones and a call for troops.  In Texas, governor Perry has been fighting to get more drones and more troops on the border in order to stop the spill over of violence, and has met a lot of resistance from the feds on this.

    Over the last year, this has been more political than anything, seeing how Perry is Republican and the Administration and Congress is mostly Democrat. Increasing border security activities goes against any kind of immigration reform or amnesty initiatives, because it sends a mixed message to the U.S. citizenry.  The narrative is this– ‘Do we want to stop illegal immigrants from crossing the border so we can stop them from killing Americans or bringing over drugs/supporting the cartels, or do we want them coming over and giving them a free pass so we can get cheap labor? I side on the idea that people should come to my country legally, and go through the same process that all immigrants have gone through who have come to the US.  Why the Mexican immigrant is a special case, is beyond me. Especially when drug cartels are taking advantage of these immigrants and a weak border, and flooding my country with their drugs.

   But back to border security.  As soon as Americans die, either on the border or on either side of that border, I think politics tends to go out the window, and reality sets in. The attack on diplomats and the astronomical increase in deaths across the border in places like Juarez, have presented a reality where border security might start getting the attention it needs.  Our use of drones will probably increase along the border, as will our assistance to the Mexican government in stopping the cartels. American deaths are game changers, and those acts will only put the war back into the ‘drug war’. The bitter irony is American deaths have already been high do to drug overdoses or drug related crimes in the US. I guess it takes killings on the border to really drive home the point.-Matt

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Drones silently patrol U.S. borders

By Ed Lavandera

March 12, 2010

Fort Huachuca, Arizona (CNN) — It’s a frigid, dark night in the mountainous border region of southeast Arizona. A group of 31 suspected illegal immigrants are walking up and down rocky ridges toward Tucson, Arizona. They’re wearing small backpacks and stop to rest every few minutes.

This isn’t a scene unfolding before the eyes of Border Patrol agents on the ground. It comes from a video image provided by a Predator B unmanned aircraft 19,000 feet overhead. In fact, the nearest Border Patrol agents are far away.

Jerry Kersey is the Customs and Border Protection agent in charge of this night’s Predator mission. He and his two-man crew relay the information to Border Patrol agents from a small trailer 40 miles from the scene.

Kersey directs the agents on the ground, who are wearing night-vision goggles.

“Stop! Stop! They’re to your right,” Kersey firmly dictates over a radio transmission. “They must see you. The group is running.”

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