Feral Jundi

Monday, February 21, 2011

Libya: Reports Of Gaddafi Using Mercenaries To Quell Uprising

Filed under: Black Swan Events,Libya,Saudi Arabia — Tags: , , , , , , , , , — Matt @ 8:20 PM

     Interesting, but this is not very solid yet. I have been trying to find any information I could about Gaddafi’s supposed use of mercenaries to quell the current uprising there, and this is what I have found so far.  Although this is hard to verify because there is a media block there, and Gaddafi has shut down the internet in his country.

    I do know that guys like this have lots of money because of all the oil and foreign investment. There are reports of part of his military defecting because they are being ordered to attack the protestors. I don’t blame them for leaving and I wouldn’t want to bomb my own countrymen either.  Which both points bring up the question of mercenaries as a possible solution for the dictator.  Would Gaddafi hire thugs from outside of his country to do this dirty work?

     Also, it would be easy for people to confuse the evacuations of expats and oil workers with some kind of mercenary invasion force.  These PSCs are landing at airports to simple provide a secure transport for folks to get out.  From what I gather, companies like SOS International will be involved in evacuations in Libya, similar to what they did in Egypt.

    Finally, Libya is important to watch because it is an OPEC nation.  If oil workers are being evacuated, then oil facilities could be shut down or in danger of being attacked.  Not good and this will impact the oil markets.  And if Saudi Arabia fires up as another domino in this string of uprising dominoes, then stand by for a major shock to the oil market. This will only get more interesting and complex as this fire continues to rage.-Matt

Edit: 02/23/2011 – Check out the comments below. I have posted some really interesting stories that have elaborated on the history of mercenary usage in the middle east, and especially Libya. I will continue to dump stories that are relevant in the comments.

U.S. struggles with little leverage to restrain Libyan government

By Mary Beth Sheridan and Scott WilsonMonday, February 21, 2011

…..Libya’s deputy ambassador to the United Nations, who broke with Gaddafi on Monday, urged the international community to impose a no-fly zone over the country to prevent mercenaries and arms from reaching the government. But no other major power echoed the call.

Link to quote here.

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Libya ‘uses mercenaries’ to keep order on streets as 200 die in violent clashes

20th February 2011

….Security sources suggested the leader has hired foot soldiers from neighbouring states to maintain law and order.

Marc Ginsburg, former U.S. ambassador to Morocco told CNN: ‘First and foremost he (Gaddafi) has security support from Sudan and Pakistan and his intelligence advisers have received significant intelligence support from former KGB officials who were part of the Eastern Bloc countries such as Bulgaria, Romania and Belarus.’

Link for quote here.

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Gaddafi recruits “African mercenaries” to quell protests

Saturday, 19 February 2011

Libya recruited hundreds of mercenaries from Sub-Saharan Africa to help quell a popular uprising that is threatening to unseat veteran leader Muammar Gaddafi after more than 41 years in office, witness told Al Arabiya from the eastern city of Benghazi on Sunday.The witnesses said protesters in Benghazi caught some “African mercenaries” who spoke French and who admitted that they were ordered by Muammar Gaddafi’s son, Khamis Gaddafi, to fire live ammunition at demonstrators.

The witnesses, who refused to be named for security reasons, added that they saw four airplanes carrying “African mercenaries” land in Benina International Airport near the city of Benghazi, the second largest city in the country. (more…)

Thursday, February 17, 2011

Publications: From Dictatorship To Democracy, By Gene Sharp

Filed under: Egypt,Publications — Tags: , , , , , , — Matt @ 1:21 PM

From Dictatorship to Democracy, By Gene Sharp

Strategy: The Father Of Strategic Nonviolent Action Gene Sharp, And Mideast Revolution

Filed under: Africa,Al Qaeda,Black Swan Events,Egypt,Industry Talk,Strategy,Tunisia — Tags: , , , , , , , , , — Matt @ 1:13 PM

     For to win one hundred victories in one hundred battles is not the acme of skill. To subdue the enemy without fighting is the acme of skill. -Sun Tzu 

     Based on studies of revolutionaries like Gandhi, nonviolent uprisings, civil rights struggles, economic boycotts and the like, he has concluded that advancing freedom takes careful strategy and meticulous planning, advice that Ms. Ziada said resonated among youth leaders in Egypt. Peaceful protest is best, he says — not for any moral reason, but because violence provokes autocrats to crack down. “If you fight with violence,” Mr. Sharp said, “you are fighting with your enemy’s best weapon, and you may be a brave but dead hero.”

     Interesting story and it just reaffirms the view I had that it wasn’t gadgets like Facebook or Twitter that won the day, but just good ol fashion kick ass strategy and planning. I also like the quote up top because it also reinforces the strategy that Boyd talked about by isolating your enemy ‘morally, mentally, and physically’.  With protest, if you decide to go violent and use arms against a government, you have now given that government the moral right to kill you with arms.  Plus if you are killed, you cannot continue the revolution or fight.

    Although what is interesting about this is that there was talk of Mubarak’s forces using their agents as looters to make the anti-Mubarak crowds look morally illegitimate. The attack on reporters, like with Lara Logan, could have been another way of making the anti-Mubarak forces look morally illegitimate. This to me is the essence of the kind of fight going on within a riot in countries with dictators and tyrants. There is much strategy involved with such endeavors.

     Or those governments just pull the trigger, and could care less about morality. Might makes right and  being feared is better than being respected, etc….

     Either way, I wanted to put this up as food for thought.  Especially after reading that the Muslim Brotherhood was interested in these concepts of strategic nonviolent action. Of course if dictators and tyrants have it coming, they deserve what they get.  But the snakes in the grass called jihadists will benefit from these revolutions in the Middle East and elsewhere. It will create power vacuums, and they will certainly do all they can to fill that vacuum.

     Of course on the surface, the West will always try to present the idea that we support dictators and tyrants being overthrown–if it is within our national interest.  But be that as it may, the West also has a lot riding on the relationships, business and treaties it has with these people. Mubarak was an important ally in our war against jihadists, all the way up until he was overthrown.  Now we take the side of the revolutionaries and disgruntled population that overthrew him. Unfortunately this group of revolutionaries have jihadists in the wings that benefit directly, and they participate either overtly or covertly to push these revolutions along. That is why folks like the Muslim Brotherhood have copies of Gene Sharp’s manual in their possession.

     On the flip side, countries like Iran or China should be very fearful of publications like this, and to a degree, the west would benefit from this fear.  These countries have horrible human rights records, and they both military or economic threats.  Don’t forget the really horrible dictators in Africa which should equally be fearful of this current wave of revolution.  I would love to see Mugabe taken down, or any of the other nut job dictators that cause so much grief in Africa.

    Now on to the potential application for our industry.  A company that offered strategic nonviolent action training and advising services, or advising countries facing this kind of attack on government, could be an interesting business to get into.  There are models of success to emulate here, and this kind of work defines the ultimate in winning without killing or fighting.  Another way to look at this type of thing is as a tool to create the right environment for a bloodless coup/non-violent regime change. Notice how the Egyptian Army is now in charge of Egypt, and they didn’t have to fire a shot (figuratively speaking–there were deaths in this uprising).

     I do realize the history of meddling in other nation’s business and stoking revolutions–sometimes you get what you ask for. lol But what is different now is the advent of super empowered individuals, jihadists, organized crime, and nations with ill means, all being able to apply these principles to the overthrow of leaders to achieve strategic goals. Could a criminal organization like a drug cartel use these concepts in their war against governments and leaders? How about Hamas or Hezbollah using these methods to foster overthrow in their target countries (with Iranian support of course) I mean this stuff isn’t just for peaceniks. With revolutions and protest blowing up across the middle east, this stuff is very important to analyze and ultimately synthesize solutions for attacks or defenses.- Matt

From Dictatorship To Democracy, by Gene Sharp (also on my Sribd)

Shy U.S. Intellectual Created Playbook Used in a Revolution

By SHERYL GAY STOLBERG

February 16, 2011

BOSTON — Halfway around the world from Tahrir Square in Cairo, an aging American intellectual shuffles about his cluttered brick row house in a working-class neighborhood here. His name is Gene Sharp. Stoop-shouldered and white-haired at 83, he grows orchids, has yet to master the Internet and hardly seems like a dangerous man.

But for the world’s despots, his ideas can be fatal.

(more…)

Thursday, February 10, 2011

Strategy: Egyptians Share Secrets Of Uprising

Filed under: Egypt,Strategy,Tunisia — Tags: , , , , , , , , , , , — Matt @ 6:48 PM

      This is fascinating stuff. Like most folks, I have been following the protests and political upheaval with some interest. But what I am really interested in is the strategies and tactics behind such things.  Because really, the best way to win a war or achieve an objective, is to not fight at all. Removing a leader and it’s regime via internal uprising or coup (bloodless preferred) , is far better than expending all the resources, treasure and blood that is involved with conducting an all out war to remove such a beast.

     What I thought was most impressive is that it sounded like what won the day was really good strategy on the part of the activists, and not Twitter or Facebook or whatever gadgets that the media likes to point to as the source.  These protesters played a better game than the riot forces and the Mubarak regime did, and they did it by borrowing brilliance or what I call ‘mimicry strategy’.  They saw how the folks in Tunisia did this, and copied it.  They also used whatever communications tool they could to network the masses and get them to where they needed to be.  So they did word of mouth tactics, they used the internet, they used flyers, they used the cell phone and text messaging, they used everything they could to get the word out.

     Further more, on the technology side of things, there are more cellphones in Egypt than internet users.  And the government eventually shut down the internet, leaving protest organizers to go back to more traditional ways of organizing.  But as you can see with their strategy, they wanted to create just one successful protest that would get people off their asses and out into the streets.  Once they got the people out, the protest would fuel itself because people would be motivated by other people and their actions.  Momentum is what they were seeking, and that is what they achieved.

    Also, I really dug the ‘Site 21’ strategy mentioned.  I think Col. John Boyd would be impressed with this strategy, as would any military strategist.  The protest was well planned and executed, and it used decoy marches to fool the police.  With that planning, they were also able to create a focal point or schwerpunkt at this Site 21, and depend on the masses to collect there and overwhelm any police forces that could respond. This massive show of people would be the fuel for future protests. This would further build on the inception of the Tunisian success in Egypt idea in everyone’s brain.  Success breeds success.

     Also it should be noted that ‘know yourself, know your enemy’ was extremely important to the success of these strategists.  They had protested and failed before, so they had that to learn from.  They had years to study the Egyptian riot police and how they operated.  They also learned what it took to motivate the people through a source of constant give and take feedback gold on such places as Facebook, Twitter, and activist forums.  And lets not forget the simple act of just talking on a phone or sending text as well?  The cellphone to me was probably the most important technological tool used, just because it was the one tool that everyone in the country had access too.

     Now for the down side.  Who knows what the outcome of all of this will be?  Will the Muslim Brotherhood take over in Egypt? Are we seeing the seeds of a Islamic Revolution throughout the region, much like what happened in Iran back in 1979?  Will the military in Egypt join with the people and their desired leader, or join with Mubarak and hurt the people to break the uprising? Or will the military just dissolve? Not to mention how all of this will impact the price of oil, US regional strategies and national interests, or even Egypt’s neighbor Israel?

     I don’t know, but I do know that other political uprisings will emerge because now there is a template.  Mimicry strategy, along with adding that one little edge specific to their region is the kind of stuff we will continue to see. Most importantly, there is momentum building and oppressed peoples will be more enthused to do something. –Matt

Go to Site 21!!!! This is our Tunisia!!!!

Egyptians Share Secrets of Uprising

FEBRUARY 10, 2011

By CHARLES LEVINSON And MARGARET COKER

CAIRO—The Egyptian opposition’s takeover of the area around the parliament this week began with a trick.

First, they called for a march on the state television building a few blocks north of their encampment in Tahrir Square. Then, while the army deployed to that sensitive communications hub, they moved into the lightly defended area around the parliament to the south.

The feint gave a taste of how a dozen young activists managed to outwit Egypt’s feared security forces to launch a historic uprising now in its 17th day—and hint at how the organizers hope to keep pressure on a regime that has dug in its heels.

On Jan. 25, the first day of protests, the organizers had a trick up their sleeves in the impoverished slum of Bulaq al-Dakrour, on Cairo’s western edge.

(more…)

Wednesday, October 6, 2010

Publications: Breaking Ranks–Dissent And The Military Professional, By Andrew Milburn

Filed under: Industry Talk,Jundism,Military News — Tags: , , , , , , , , , — Matt @ 3:57 PM

Should dissent be founded on the right action or the right effect? A third of the MCWAR officers surveyed argued that in the face of a moral dilemma, the military professional should focus on the effect desired: mitigation of the immoral order, rather than the conscience- salving but possibly ineffectual act of resignation. These officers advocated an indirect approach: addressing higher authority, leaking the story to trusted journalists or politicians, and dragging their feet in execution— “slow rolling” in military parlance. “What else can I do?” asked one officer rhetorically. “My only option is to conduct covert actions to reduce the risks of misfortune and of American casualties.”18 This approach is certainly not without precedent. As one Army colonel commented in response to the survey, “The most (commonly) used form of disobeying an order I’ve seen is slow-rolling.”19 This option does have some prima facie appeal, combining its own moral logic with a pragmatic focus on effects.

***** 

     Thanks to Paul from Facebook for bringing this to my attention.  This paper is actually causing quite a stir amongst the military crowd, and is certainly thought provoking. It also is relevant considering the General McChrystal firing a couple months back.

     What struck me as extremely interesting, is the conclusion and the preferred method of dissent with today’s command. That would be covert dissent, because it allows the commander to stay in their position of power and continue to protect their people and others.

     Commanders have a choice when they have decided that an order is immoral. They could be overt or covert with their protest. If they are overt, they would be fired or have to resign, but their message would be loud and clear. This is a symbolic stance, and can be successful if used properly.  The problem with that one though, is their men would still be a victim of that order because the replacement leadership would probably be selected for it’s ability to carry out the order and not question the higher command. You would hope that the symbolic open protest would stop the activity, but what if it doesn’t? Now you are no longer in the loop to stop the source of this terrible and life threatening decision making.

     Or an officer can stay in that position, yet covertly protest the order using a number of methods. You can fight it from within. Slow rolling or ‘dragging your feet’ was mentioned as the most commonly used way to disobey an order. Other methods were to leak the immoral or unethical order to the press or appealing to higher authorities. With these methods, an officer can stay in command, achieve the goal of commanding and protecting their troops, while at the same time disobeying the order. In other words, to stay in their position of power and dissent covertly is preferred.

     Now if I was to compare this to the private industry, there are similar themes. On the blog I have talked about some of this stuff under the category of Jundism. ‘Have the courage to do what is right’ is one of those topics that I have touched on. I have also discussed ways in which managers or contractors can report wrong doing within the company. You can be an overt whistleblower, or you can dissent covertly.  My thoughts on it are to dissent covertly, use whatever strategy you can to protect self and others, and leave the company as soon as you can find another gig. With this last method, you can also educate your subordinates to do the same and as a manager you can protect them until they too can leave. Just leave and don’t waste your time and life on a pathetic company. With this method, the company will either suffer massive attrition, damage to their reputation and a loss of money. Or if they care to be competitive in today’s market, they will learn that ‘taking care of your people’ is pretty darn important.

     The only time I advocate open protest is when lives are needlessly put at risk because of a company policy, and time is of the essence. You must protect yourself and others, and do it the smartest way possible. But I also realize that the situation dictates.

     Another point to bring up for those of you that have an interest in monitoring companies.  Probably one of the best indicators of the quality and health of a company, is to review how many folks have resigned or were fired. Those companies with high attrition rates are usually the ones that do a terrible job of taking care of their people. Or to review those companies with numerous defaults on contracts.

     I have even heard of guards organizing and striking, and that would be another area to investigate. Or better yet, guards collectively jumping contract, and crossing over to another company.  That way they maintain work and their team cohesion,  and they overtly hurt the company by costing them money (training, transport, etc.) or causing a default on contract.

     But these contractors can also become blacklisted by said company with both of these incidents. A contractor’s reputation might be negatively impacted by an action like this as well. So with that said, a contractor really has to be smart as to the best course of action.

    With that whole blacklist thing, I will have to do a separate post.  You can get blacklisted or put on a ‘do not hire’ list for all sorts of reasons and it is another reason why dissent must really be thought through before you take action. Good stuff and definitely some ‘to be, or to do‘ related ideas. –Matt

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Breaking Ranks: Dissent and the Military Professional

By Andrew R. Milburn

Click here to download the PDF

Lieutenant Colonel Andrew R. Milburn, USMC, is assigned to Special Operations Command, Europe, Future Operations (J3).

There are circumstances under which a military officer is not only justified but also obligated to disobey a legal order. In supporting this assertion, I discuss where the tipping point lies between the military officer’s customary obligation to obey and his moral obligation to dissent. This topic defies black-and-white specificity but is nevertheless fundamental to an understanding of the military professional’s role in the execution of policy. It involves complex issues—among them, the question of balance between strategy and policy, and between military leaders and their civilian masters.

Any member of the military has a commonly understood obligation to disobey an illegal order; such cases are not controversial and therefore do not fall within the purview of this article. Instead, the focus is on orders that present military professionals with moral dilemmas, decisions wherein the needs of the institution appear to weigh on both sides of the equation. Whether the issuer of the order is a superior officer or a civilian leader, the same principles apply. However, because issues at the strategic level of decisionmaking have greater consequences and raise wider issues, I focus on dissent at this level.

(more…)

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