This is fascinating stuff. Like most folks, I have been following the protests and political upheaval with some interest. But what I am really interested in is the strategies and tactics behind such things. Because really, the best way to win a war or achieve an objective, is to not fight at all. Removing a leader and it’s regime via internal uprising or coup (bloodless preferred) , is far better than expending all the resources, treasure and blood that is involved with conducting an all out war to remove such a beast.
What I thought was most impressive is that it sounded like what won the day was really good strategy on the part of the activists, and not Twitter or Facebook or whatever gadgets that the media likes to point to as the source. These protesters played a better game than the riot forces and the Mubarak regime did, and they did it by borrowing brilliance or what I call ‘mimicry strategy’. They saw how the folks in Tunisia did this, and copied it. They also used whatever communications tool they could to network the masses and get them to where they needed to be. So they did word of mouth tactics, they used the internet, they used flyers, they used the cell phone and text messaging, they used everything they could to get the word out.
Further more, on the technology side of things, there are more cellphones in Egypt than internet users. And the government eventually shut down the internet, leaving protest organizers to go back to more traditional ways of organizing. But as you can see with their strategy, they wanted to create just one successful protest that would get people off their asses and out into the streets. Once they got the people out, the protest would fuel itself because people would be motivated by other people and their actions. Momentum is what they were seeking, and that is what they achieved.
Also, I really dug the ‘Site 21’ strategy mentioned. I think Col. John Boyd would be impressed with this strategy, as would any military strategist. The protest was well planned and executed, and it used decoy marches to fool the police. With that planning, they were also able to create a focal point or schwerpunkt at this Site 21, and depend on the masses to collect there and overwhelm any police forces that could respond. This massive show of people would be the fuel for future protests. This would further build on the inception of the Tunisian success in Egypt idea in everyone’s brain. Success breeds success.
Also it should be noted that ‘know yourself, know your enemy’ was extremely important to the success of these strategists. They had protested and failed before, so they had that to learn from. They had years to study the Egyptian riot police and how they operated. They also learned what it took to motivate the people through a source of constant give and take feedback gold on such places as Facebook, Twitter, and activist forums. And lets not forget the simple act of just talking on a phone or sending text as well? The cellphone to me was probably the most important technological tool used, just because it was the one tool that everyone in the country had access too.
Now for the down side. Who knows what the outcome of all of this will be? Will the Muslim Brotherhood take over in Egypt? Are we seeing the seeds of a Islamic Revolution throughout the region, much like what happened in Iran back in 1979? Will the military in Egypt join with the people and their desired leader, or join with Mubarak and hurt the people to break the uprising? Or will the military just dissolve? Not to mention how all of this will impact the price of oil, US regional strategies and national interests, or even Egypt’s neighbor Israel?
I don’t know, but I do know that other political uprisings will emerge because now there is a template. Mimicry strategy, along with adding that one little edge specific to their region is the kind of stuff we will continue to see. Most importantly, there is momentum building and oppressed peoples will be more enthused to do something. –Matt
Go to Site 21!!!! This is our Tunisia!!!!
Egyptians Share Secrets of Uprising
FEBRUARY 10, 2011
By CHARLES LEVINSON And MARGARET COKER
CAIRO—The Egyptian opposition’s takeover of the area around the parliament this week began with a trick.
First, they called for a march on the state television building a few blocks north of their encampment in Tahrir Square. Then, while the army deployed to that sensitive communications hub, they moved into the lightly defended area around the parliament to the south.
The feint gave a taste of how a dozen young activists managed to outwit Egypt’s feared security forces to launch a historic uprising now in its 17th day—and hint at how the organizers hope to keep pressure on a regime that has dug in its heels.
On Jan. 25, the first day of protests, the organizers had a trick up their sleeves in the impoverished slum of Bulaq al-Dakrour, on Cairo’s western edge.