Feral Jundi

Sunday, March 28, 2010

Africa: The Anarchy Gravy Train

     What we are seeing is the decline of the classic African liberation movement and the proliferation of something else — something wilder, messier, more violent, and harder to wrap our heads around. If you’d like to call this war, fine. But what is spreading across Africa like a viral pandemic is actually just opportunistic, heavily armed banditry.

*****

   I was turned on to Mr. Gettleman’s stuff after doing a little searching around on all things Africa, and I am impressed with what he has reported on.  He seems to have a feel for what is really going on, and has boiled it down to it’s most basic root causes.  From Somalia to the Congo, it is all the same.  It is the Anarchy Gravy Train, and all of these seedy and despicable groups mentioned, all benefit from this chaos. They don’t want order, because it is a threat to their lively-hood.

   At best what I can determine from all of this, is that these groups have found a means of survival through terror. It not only feeds them but gets them anything they want….anything.  That’s pretty powerful, and these struggling governments who are dealing with these groups are having a hard time selling a better deal.  So these thugs look at government as a threat to their good deal and terror based businesses.

   It is the same with the current drug war, and you could easily say that the cartels only benefit from a weak government and weak borders.  Anarchy, or something close to anarchy, is a place in which enterprising criminals can really flourish.

   Look at Haiti right now, and that would be an excellent study for this concept.  With the earthquake came instant anarchy.  Infrastructure is destroyed, prisons crumble and convicts escape, and the government or any semblance of it is not able to protect or adequately help their people.  Crime increases, and business based on that anarchy increases.  Things like charging for shade under a tree, or selling child slaves, all because there is no one around to tell them that they can’t do that. That is what Africa is all about, and it is sad.

   So in a sea of chaos and anarchy, how do you establish order?  That is the million dollar question, and in Africa, it is a question that is continually pondered day in and day out, and with little success.

   From my point of view as a security professional and as an independent contractor or businessman, I could give some suggestions as to how to bring order to chaos.  Although my suggestions might not be the most politically correct solutions, they are none the less just ideas to think about.

   Business must be supported and protected by government.  I can’t stress enough how important business is to a government.  If you have the support of business, and you actually do things that increase business or brings a return on investment for the community, then I think countries in Africa will be able to do a better job at diminishing the power of these free ranging thugs. Telecommunications is a big one, and any effort of the government to promote that and get it out to the masses, will only help in other areas of commerce and governance. Educations and the promotion of innovation is another.  Anything a government can do, to stimulate business and get people occupied with that, as opposed to committing crimes or fighting each other, will help. It produces jobs, and increases the quality of living by bringing more cash into local economies.

   Security is the second area that needs to be a priority.  Governments must have adequate protection, and they must do all they can to protect it’s people.  If they have the resources to raise an army and police, then that is one way.  If they have the resources, but not the manpower, then using assistance of other countries or contracting a PMC would be another way.  Or the third way a country could protect itself and it’s people, is through the means of Letter of Marque and Reprisal.  To issue a LoM to individuals, and have them focused on taking the assets away from enemies of the state, and/or killing and capturing those enemies would be an excellent way of kick starting a government.  This is privateering, and governments could turn to this activity as a cost effective way of defeating it’s enemies and eradicating these free ranging thugs and rebel groups that we read about all the time.

   You could also use bounty hunting as a means to eradicate or capture these thugs.  If countries could contract the services of competent companies to do this task, then that would buy them the time necessary to raise a police or army.  And as the author pointed out below, once you take out the leaders of these roving bands of thugs, they tend to dissipate. Focusing the energies of a professional and competent company on the task of removing this threat, could be a real help in the over all effort of creating peace and stability within a country.

   My point with both of these activities, is that countries should have the right and means to contract with professional forces who could accomplish the task of destroying any threats to a government.  Especially in countries that are deemed failed states, or pretty damn close.  Or countries that are so overwhelmed that even their current forces at maximum levels, are unable to do the task (like in Mexico).

   The example of what I am talking about, is early America and our use of privateers in order to defeat the British on the high seas.  We did not have a sufficiently sized Continental Navy, and privateers was the answer.  Using mercenaries was our answer to manpower deficiencies during the Battle of Derne back during the Barbary Pirates days.(our very first foreign action as a young country) Or even look at the use of contractors today by the US–there are thousands of us working in the war. Why does the west continue to deny other countries whom they call friends, their right to defend self in such a way? Because currently, the means we are currently allowing countries to use, are pathetic.

   We say things like ‘only the UN is authorized to be in the Congo’.  And then what happens?  They fail miserably, and things get worse.  We say companies like Executive Outcomes are unjust and illegitimate, yet when they are contracted to help a government, like with Sierra Leone, they were successful. How about we put that choice in the hands of the governments of countries, and stop dictating what we think works or doesn’t work?

   Ideally it would be nice if all countries in Africa, had the ability to raise armies that were sufficiently organized and violent to deal with their threats.  Yet time and time again, governments fail to create such things.  The local populations are not able to produce recruits for these armies that are able to operate at an advanced level.  Education and health deficiencies are contributors.  Corruption in society and government is another deficiency.  There are a number of reasons why local males (or females) are not able to do the job.  Some countries are just decimated do to war or famine, and to say that they could raise armies that can do the job is a joke.  So where do they turn to, to get the strategic advantage?

   Well if you introduce a company with some capability, and mix that up with the best local troops a country can offer, hence creating a hybrid force that could do the job, then that would be one way.  Having a company do it all, or even another country do it all, would be another.  This is not rocket science, and with the unorganized thugs we are seeing in most of Africa, forces like what I am talking about and what Eeben brought to the table with EO, are the types of forces that would end this ‘anarchy gravy train’.

   The final component of destroying the anarchy gravy train, is international will.  The mandates that the UN has operated on, are terrible.  You must work to end wars, and that takes violence of action.  You do not send in peacekeepers to somehow bring stability during an active war.  The war must end, and that only happens after one side has broken the will of the other.  Or you destroy the leadership of that other side.  Only after the war has ended and the parties on both sides is exhausted, can you then begin to introduce peacekeepers.

   What instead should happen, is wars should be fought and ended as quickly as possible.  It takes extreme violence and strategy that far surpasses the other side, to make that happen.  It also takes political will, not only from the government, but of the countries of the world who are looking on.

   Just imagine if the UN was created back during the early days of America?  And the countries of the world decided to send the UN to the Americas, to stand in between the rebels and the British?  Do you think for a second, that the UN could accomplish that task?  If anything, colonial rebel forces would just attack and steal from the UN, much like they do now a days in places like Africa. Or because the UN is so ineffectual, they could just claim that they are a tool of the British, and then turn the UN into a target of the rebels–much like local forces do to the UN today. And as the UN mission fails in America, donors to the UN continue to question why it even exists, much like countries do now.  Pathetic really.

   To end this Anarchy Gravy Train in places like Africa, we need to start looking at ideas that work.  Ideas that have continued to be attacked because of misconceptions coming from the media or from those who stand to benefit from the Anarchy Gravy Train.  I will continue to offer the lessons of the past, and how they could be applied to today.  But until the powers that be, get realistic about actions that will bring the kind of peace and stability these countries need, we will continue to watch this horrid spectacle. –Matt

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Africa’s Forever Wars

Why the continent’s conflicts never end.

MARCH/APRIL 2010

BY JEFFREY GETTLEMAN

There is a very simple reason why some of Africa’s bloodiest, most brutal wars never seem to end: They are not really wars. Not in the traditional sense, at least. The combatants don’t have much of an ideology; they don’t have clear goals. They couldn’t care less about taking over capitals or major cities — in fact, they prefer the deep bush, where it is far easier to commit crimes. Today’s rebels seem especially uninterested in winning converts, content instead to steal other people’s children, stick Kalashnikovs or axes in their hands, and make them do the killing. Look closely at some of the continent’s most intractable conflicts, from the rebel-laden creeks of the Niger Delta to the inferno in the Democratic Republic of the Congo, and this is what you will find.

What we are seeing is the decline of the classic African liberation movement and the proliferation of something else — something wilder, messier, more violent, and harder to wrap our heads around. If you’d like to call this war, fine. But what is spreading across Africa like a viral pandemic is actually just opportunistic, heavily armed banditry. My job as the New York Times’ East Africa bureau chief is to cover news and feature stories in 12 countries. But most of my time is spent immersed in these un-wars.

I’ve witnessed up close — often way too close — how combat has morphed from soldier vs. soldier (now a rarity in Africa) to soldier vs. civilian. Most of today’s African fighters are not rebels with a cause; they’re predators. That’s why we see stunning atrocities like eastern Congo’s rape epidemic, where armed groups in recent years have sexually assaulted hundreds of thousands of women, often so sadistically that the victims are left incontinent for life. What is the military or political objective of ramming an assault rifle inside a woman and pulling the trigger? Terror has become an end, not just a means.

(more…)

Friday, March 26, 2010

Aviation: DynCorp Flies AU Peacekeepers To Somalia

Filed under: Aviation,Somalia — Tags: , , , , — Matt @ 12:35 AM

     “The military stalemate is less a reflection of opposition strength than of the weakness of the Transitional Federal Government. Despite infusions of foreign training and assistance, government security forces remain ineffective, disorganized and corrupt,” the report stated. “The government owes its survival to the small African Union peace support operation, AMISOM, rather than to its own troops.” 

*****

   Bravo to DynCorp for contributing to the survival of the TFG, and I am sure NATO is happy as well.  As you can see with the article, Uganda is very important to the AU mission and without these forces, Mogadishu would fall into the hands of extremists.

   On the other hand, we are yet again supporting a weak government in their fight against determined islamic extremists.  When are we going to pick a winner for once, or back a government that has a spine and the ability to make things happen out there?  Because now we are in a position where the AU will probably be doing all of the fighting to protect the TFG in Mogadishu, because the government military forces are so disorganized and pathetic. Nor is there any concerted effort to really protect or win over the people, and that is how the extremists win.

   Let’s look at this another way.  We are fighting the same kind of fight against the Taliban in Afghanistan.  The West has the most modern military in the world, with all of these resources at it’s disposal, and we are still going at it after all of these years.  It is only the last couple years where we have really started to kick in the whole COIN emphasis on operations, and retool for that fight.

    Now look at Somalia, with it’s lack of a strong government or organized army. It is at a severe disadvantage when combating an islamic extremist enemy who is using the same tactics and strategy as it’s partner networks throughout the world. I know we have this aversion to ‘Americanizing’ the war in Somalia.  But if you look at all the pieces, you kind of wonder if Somalia even has a chance? And to a larger extent, are we ready for Somalia to be conquered by the enemy and deal with the propaganda value of such a victory? –Matt

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U.S. contractor flies AU peacekeepers to Somalia

State department says U.S. has no plans to increase military’s role

By John VandiverMarch 23, 2010

STUTTGART, Germany — U.S.-contracted flights, working under the NATO banner, ferried some 1,700 Ugandan troops into Mogadishu, Somalia, last week in response to an African Union request for transportation support, alliance officials said in a news release.

The troop movements were made as government officials in the Somali capital are preparing to launch a military offensive to reclaim parts of the city from al-Shabaab — an extremist group with al-Qaida links.

The airlift, which ran from March 5 through March 16, was conducted by the U.S.-contracted DynCorp International. In addition to shuttling troops into Somalia, the airlift also flew 850 Ugandan troops out of Mogadishu, NATO said.

Tensions have been on the rise in Mogadishu as the fragile Somali transitional government has been unable to turn the tide against Islamic extremist groups that seek to seize control of the country and impose a harsh form of Sharia law. And as AU forces dig in for the upcoming fight, a March 10 report by the U.N. Monitoring Group of Somalia raises questions about whether Somalia’s weak security forces and dysfunctional government are capable of achieving any significant gains.

(more…)

Thursday, March 25, 2010

Maritime Security: Private Security Repels An Assault, One Pirate Killed

   Excellent.  This is yet again the kind of stuff that will give today’s pirates a pause next time they want to attack a boat. What I would like to know is what weapons and tactics these guys were using?  Because other security details on boats could be learning from these incidents, and improving their own operations based on this information.  So if anyone reading this that is intimately involved with EU NAVFOR or the company providing the security detail on this boat, please speak up. (or contact me through the FJ contact page)

   Now the only down side in my view, is that why was there only one guy killed and why was he killed with just ‘small caliber’ ammunition?  Does that mean that the security detailed showered these boats with 9mm bullets, fired from one or two pistols, and that this whole thing was pure luck that they were able to actually kill one of these guys or stop the attack?  Or did they have sufficient fire power to deal with these thugs?  My guess is that they did not have sufficient fire power, because if they did, there should have been more dead pirates.

     I also think the pirates probably would have ran off after the first assault, if they did come up against sufficient fire power.  But I am not going to monday morning quarterback this too much, because this security detail still kicked ass.  Bravo to them, and bravo to the EU NAVFOR task force for quickly responding to the distress call.  Quick Reaction Forces will be essential for these private security details who are doing the best they can with what they got out there.  Sending a helicopter gunship is a good call, or sending whatever they can that is fast and lethal is absolutely vital if they want to keep up a good record of combating pirates and protecting ships. –Matt

Edit: 03/25/2010 – And the very next day, all six pirates were released because no one wanted to make statements.  This catch and release crap has got to stop.  From the bickering about armed security on ships, to this pathetic releasing of pirates back into the wild, is all just mind numbingly stupid. Read the rest here.

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Pirate Dies in Attempted Hijacking – EU NAVFOR Detains Pirate Action Group

March 24, 2010

by EU NAVFOR Public Affairs Office

Early on the morning of Tuesday 23 March, an EU NAVFOR warship received a distress call from a merchant ship off the Somalia coast and proceeded at high speed to assist.

As previously reported, the Panamanian-flagged cargo ship, MV ALMEZAAN, en route to Mogadishu, was under attack from pirates. An armed private vessel protection detachment on board the ship returned fire, successfully repelling the first attack, but the pirates continued to pursue. A second attack was repelled and the pirates fled the area.

The EU NAVFOR frigate ESPS NAVARRA, from the Spanish Navy, was dispatched by the Force Commander, Rear Admiral Giovanni Gumiero of the Italian Navy, and raced to the scene of the incident. She launched her helicopter, quickly locating the ALMEZAAN and the pirates’ boats, known as skiffs. When the suspects failed to heed the helicopter’s instructions to stop, warning shots were fired by the aircraft, after which a team from NAVARRA boarded a skiff.

(more…)

Wednesday, March 24, 2010

Africa: East Africa Oil, AFRICOM Is In Position, And 10,000 Ugandans With Iraq Experience Are Ready

   This is a quick one I wanted to put out.  I was talking with friends the other day about the Ugandans in Iraq, and how significant their work is to the economy of Uganda.  The money brought in from security work, surpasses what is made off their chief export called coffee, and that is pretty significant.  So the question is, what happens when the work dries up in Iraq?  All of these Ugandan guards are going to be looking for work, and most of the security work in Afghanistan is going to the local nationals.

   So this is what I am starting to piece together, and I am going to take a guess as to where all these guards are going to go next.  I think the plan all along was to professionalize Ugandans for a whole slew of tasks that AFRICOM and the west has in mind for East Africa.  From dealing with Jihadists in Somalia with the AU force, to providing recruits for the Ugandan Army so they can deal with the LRA and others, to protecting this new ‘hot oil zone’ in East Africa.  Ugandans are gonna be in high demand, and we have effectively trained them up with the work in Iraq. Intentional or not, I thought it was interesting to make the connection for the big picture.

   This is not to say that this was the official strategy of the US and AFRICOM all along.  But you have to look at these three stories below, and not think ‘how convenient’?  lol The coming resource war is all about securing our place at the oil trough and making sure there are competent forces to protect that stuff. Thanks to Iraq, we now have a ton of ready made guards or ‘soldiers’ to make that happen.  Let me know what you guys think. –Matt

Edit: 06/11/2010- This is an excellent run down of the current dynamics of oil in this East Africa region.  Good job to Jody.

Uganda’s recent oil discovery has the chance to reshape relations with its neighbors and the West as energy multinationals eye potential opportunities

By Jody Ray Bennett for ISN Security Watch

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East Africa is next hot oil zone

March. 10, 2010

NAIROBI, Kenya, March 10 (UPI) — East Africa is emerging as the next oil boom following a big strike in Uganda’s Lake Albert Basin. Other oil and natural gas reserves have been found in Tanzania and Mozambique and exploration is under way in Ethiopia and even war-torn Somalia.

The region, until recently largely ignored by the energy industry, is “the last real high-potential area in the world that hasn’t been fully explored,” says Richard Schmitt, chief executive officer of Dubai’s Black Marlin Energy, which is prospecting in East Africa.

The discovery at Lake Albert, in the center of Africa between Uganda and the Democratic Republic of Congo, is estimated to contain the equivalent of several billion barrels of oil. It is likely to be the biggest onshore field found south of the Sahara Desert in two decades.

(more…)

Tuesday, March 23, 2010

Maritime Security: The Evolution Of The Somali Piracy Business Model

     “The Piracy Business Model” describes a system that guarantees every participating pirate a defined share of the ransom money. It is sophisticated enough that it includes “A” shares and “B” shares similar to preferred and common shares in legitimate publicly traded companies around the globe. Just like with preferred stock, there is a premium for entering the game. Piracy “A” shares are earned by bringing weapons and being the first pirate to board a ship during attack. The lower-level militiamen that fill the roster each earn a “B” share. Once a ship is hijacked and brought to port, it’s time to balance the books by paying suppliers, investors, local elders for anchoring rights, and “B” shareholders. The remaining funds are split among the “A” shares and distributed accordingly to the “A” shareholders. 

*****

   I have to tell you that I find this evolution of piracy or ‘privateering’ in Somalia to be fascinating. What is interesting to watch is that the Somalis are applying modern day business practices and finance to the concept.  If you would like to study a similar model, just check out early America with our privateers during the Revolutionary War and War of 1812.

   So let’s go over a couple of the points in these two articles I posted, that caught my eye.  The first is Fourth Generation Somali Piracy.  The idea being, is that pirates would hijack ships, use key valuable personnel as human shields, and then convert that boat into a operations platform or ‘mother ship’.  Makes sense, and I could see them doing that.

   The idea being is that sailing that hijacked ship all the way back to their failed state’s harbor is time consuming and inefficient.  You could stay out at sea, live more comfortably on a newer hijacked vessel, and continue to expand your piracy operations in places where navies are not operating at. I will keep my eyes open for any proof of this happening.

   These pirates are smart, and they will find a way to get to waters in which the EU, NATO and the US is unable to reach.  They will also go after weak and unsuspecting vessels, which means going to places where piracy really isn’t a big thing of that region.

     Armed security details on boats will really be the only counter to this, because today’s navies are just not able to cover the kind of territory we are talking about.  Plus the cost for today’s naval activities is astronomical.  Billions of dollars are being spent every year to go after pirates in small boats armed with AK’s. The pirates are the small and many–western navies are the few and large. ( a reference to the ‘new rules of war‘)

     The other article is just a touch up on the politics of piracy.  Now that these guys are making the fat cash, they are able to sling dollars to politicians so that they can protect their business.  Pretty standard for organized crime or any venture that wants to expand their horizons and add stability to their operation.  And with the stock market approach, politicians and jihadists can all invest in these pirate ventures.  The quote up top indicates that their little stock market concept is evolving and dare I say, the pirates are applying Kaizen to their set up? lol

   Now to finish up on my solution to this thing.  We are now in a prime opportunity to once again apply the concepts of yesteryear to today’s piracy.  We should be encouraging the shipping industry to outfit their boats with competent security teams, complete with sufficient firepower to deal with all potential threats.  We should also have a legal system in place that can effectively deal with and integrate with this private security apparatus. And with the advent of pirates being captured, having an effective international courts system that these thugs worry about and fear, would be highly advantageous. And of course, the world’s navies should continue to hunt and destroy/capture these folks, and work with the security teams of boats, in order to effectively deal with this scourge.

    I would mention using the Letter of Marque as another tool to combat piracy, but I doubt today’s modern navies would appreciate that kind of thing.  Maybe when countries are financially drained from their anti-piracy ventures, will they consider such tools. Until then, anti-piracy will give these large lumbering navies something to do.  They have to justify their budgets and existence somehow, right? lol But my point with the LoM, is that creating a free market kill/capture mechanism to go after these guys, is one of the only ways to really keep up with this ever evolving piracy business model, and especially in the commons of the open sea. –Matt

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Somali Piracy Tactics Evolve; Threats Could Expand Globally

April 2010

By Michael G. Frodl

Underwriters and shippers are as concerned about what the United States and other powers won’t do against Somali pirates, as they are about what the pirates will do against ships they insure, own and operate.

While the Gulf of Aden is a relatively safe passage for the deployment of warships through a narrow corridor in a vast gulf, some Somali pirates have retaken the initiative in the waters of the Indian Ocean off East Africa.

Continuing to treat Somali pirates as a homogenous, if not a monolithic threat, is not working.

The current approach is showing diminishing returns on investments in anti-piracy. The deployment of modern warships costs easily more than a billion dollars a year, if not more, to sustain. Risks to shipping and the costs of underwriting continue to rise in the ocean where 60 percent of global commerce transits.

Meanwhile, the return on investment in piracy, which basically involves arming and supplying a handful of men and sending them out on a mother ship and two skiffs, only continues to rise.

(more…)

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