Last month a pretty unique deal went down in Georgia that I definitely wanted to get on the blog. This was a symposium on all things PMSC, which is awesome. What made it even more unique was the inclusion of so many big names in this industry, along with some familiar academics and authors. So the industry was well represented in this deal, and it is worth talking about here.
My posts on the event will coincide with the youtube videos they put out. There were three of them, so this will be a three part series.
For initial impressions, the South African industry was well represented in this event. Matter of fact, 13 countries were represented in this Symposium and all topics and companies related to this industry were covered, and not just western ones. It was refreshing to see that kind of focus, because there is an entire world of contracting out there that does not get the same attention that western companies do.
So let’s get started. Dr. Edward Mienie and others were fantastic in putting this together and reaching out to the various players in this industry. He was able to get such names as Eeben Barlow, Erik Prince, Dr. Sean McFate, Johan Raath, and Dr. Molly Dunnigan. The other panelists were also interesting to listen to because of the amount of work they have contributed to their specific topics. These were legal experts, academics, cyber experts, etc. all who had some speciality and topic that related to this industry and current events.
For part 1, here are the list of panelists in this video and where in the video they begin to talk.
16:41 – Event Starts
25:17 – Dr. Billy Wells
30:13 – Mr. Eeben Barlow
1:32:17 – Panel Introduction
1:36:22 – Dr. Molly Dunigan
1:50:08 – Mr. Johan Raath
2:06:26 – Dr. Abel Esterhuyse
2:20:02 – Dr. Kiril Avramov
2:35:03 – Panel Discussion: Influences on Foreign Policy
3:06:40 – Dr. Edward Mienie
I do not want to go into great detail on each, because I would much rather the reader watch and ponder. But I will bring up some stuff that I thought was interesting for each individual or the panel.
First up is Eeben, and he did his portion on what STTEP did in Nigeria. I have written about that in the past, and he goes into further detail about the contract. The amount of detail was excellent and I imagine a book will come out about it at some point. He does discuss a little of what they did in Nigeria in his Composite Warfare book, but looking at all the details presented about Operation Anvil, it requires it’s own treatment.
The big idea here is that STTEP trained the Nigerian forces for 2 months, and fought ‘with’ the Nigerians for one month, and were able to take back territory from Boko Haram the size of Belgium. But this was a train and mentor game, with an emphasis on mentoring. Eeben emphasized building trust with his Nigerian clients, and what that required. To experience the same hardships and accommodations and food and be prepared to work with minimal equipment. To ‘Leave as friends that will be missed’. Excellent stuff and why the west is not telling Nigeria to continue this contract with STTEP so that BH can be destroyed is beyond me.
Definitely check out the slides the Eeben put together and he put up a lessons learned deal as well. What they encountered in Nigeria has lessons for any military or private company wanting to do the same.
Eeben Barlow Slide on Lessons Learned in Nigeria.
For some cool tidbits, he was asked a question from the audience about BH’s weaknesses. He said that they do not understand the principle of the defense–or that they break contact and run under pressure.
He was also asked about equipment and it was pretty sparse and crappy from the sounds of it. They were constantly running out of 12.7 mm ammo, and Nigerian logistics were lacking. He was also asked if companies like STTEP are quick fixes or lasting? His reply is that a PMSC can create the conditions, but the end result is up to the government.
For more on Eeben’s portion of this Symposium, take it over to Facebook and read his posts about his part. Very interesting discussion and lots of commentary and support from his readers.
The Panel Discussion included Dr. Molly Dunnigan, Johan Raath, Dr. Abel Esterhaus, and Dr. Kiril Avramov. Molly discussed RAND‘s work on contractors and discussed privatizing the Afghan war. (a nod to Erik Prince and the Prince Plan).
The Prince Plan seemed to be a theme that everyone wanted to talk about or reference. What Erik is proposing is pretty radical, and it was smart for folks to dig into the what ifs. Molly took the position of bringing up reasons against it I guess. Or just bringing up some of the issues that have come up over the years. Some of that stuff she got right, but other stuff was off.
Luckily Johan Raath was there to give some counter to Molly’s position. He was representing the guy on the ground. Johan is South African and contracted in Iraq and served in the military in SA. He also has a book out called Blood Money, which is about his experiences as a contractor in Iraq.
One point that he brought up was that his company in Iraq was the first to use aircraft. They had to get engineers into Ramadi, and could not do ground movements because of all of the combat operations going on. I am sure his book details more of that, and that was some cool history. He also mentioned that 38 South Africans were killed in Iraq. I worked with one of the guys on that list, and it was a reminder to the audience of the South African contribution and sacrifice in these wars.
Next up on the panel was Dr. Abel Esterhaus, another South African who talked about the PMSC industry in that country. He also talked about how much the economy in SA is dependent on private security because the crime is so bad there. But he also made a key point about SA’s private military aspect. That SA PMSC’s have a successful track record of fighting wars, with a mention of Angola, Sierra Leone, and Nigeria. Of course this is a nod to Eeben’s STTEP and EO.
The final panelist in this discussion was Dr. Kiril Avramov. His focus was on Russian PMSC’s, and specifically how Russian companies are used to fortify or advance political, economic, and military interests. That Russia is experimenting and using private forces like PMC Wagner as part of a Hybrid Warfare strategy.
Probably of interest here is the idea that Russia did not use conventional forces to invade Ukraine and take territory. They used proxy forces, which included private companies like PMC Wagner to operate in that grey zone long enough until they achieved an objective.
Some interesting stuff brought up was Article 359, which prohibits mercenary activities, and the effort to legalize these companies. He also talked about the phases of Russian experimentation with PMSCs’s, starting with the Ukraine, then the Slavonic Corps experience in Syria and their failure, and then on to PMC Wagner and their work.
He actually listed their offense in Palmyra in 2016 as a success. Very interesting, and you could file that under another successful use of a PMSC for offensive operations. Of course in Syria, PMC Wagner has had some failures and clashes with western forces. But the big one is the future of groups like PMC Wagner, and that future is Africa. Libya, CAR, Sudan, etc. are all places that PMC Wagner is working, and I am sure more will follow. The point of his talk is that Russian PMSC’s are not going away, and they are evolving.
One factoid that came up is that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu went to Moscow six times to help deconflict between Israeli forces and the forces of PMC Wagner. Dr. Daniel Papp mentioned that one and that gives you an idea of how complex the battlefield is in Syria. February of this year, PMC Wagner got into a fight with US forces and it did not go well for them. We have absolutely been focused on deconfliction in Syria between all parties, and private forces cannot be excluded in that battle space.
The panel finished up with some questions. One question that was asked was if the Military and PMSCs do fellowships? Like the military actually sending someone to a company. I thought it was an intriguing thought, and I do not know of any company out there that does this. Nor did any of the panelists know of such a thing.
What does happen though is that guys who are National Guardsmen or Reservists contract with the companies. But that is on an individual basis, and there is no official exchange program that I am aware of. Would the military benefit from sending someone to DynCorp? Maybe, and it is worth exploring.
The final speaker was Dr. Eddie Mienie and went into detail about South Africa’s security situation. That SA is a fragile state and that the increased use of PMSC’s there are a sign of latent state fragility.
One thing of note when he spoke is that Erik Prince was in the audience in the front row, and asked him a question about the white farmer murders going on that country.
To me, that was the neat part about this symposium. It was not just a bunch of academics but a mix of folks, and both sides of the arguments were well represented. In other words, there was balance. The next post will be Part 2 of this Symposium, with Erik Prince presenting his plan for Afghanistan and some great commentary from panelists about the pros and cons of such a thing. –Matt
