What we call here a Black Swan (and capitalize it) is an event with the following three attributes. First, it is an outlier, as it lies outside the realm of regular expectations, because nothing in the past can convincingly point to its possibility. Second, it carries an extreme impact. Third, in spite of its outlier status, human nature makes us concoct explanations for its occurrence after the fact, making it explainable and predictable. I stop and summarize the triplet: rarity, extreme impact, and retrospective (though not prospective) predictability. A small number of Black Swans explain almost everything in our world, from the success of ideas and religions, to the dynamics of historical events, to elements of our own personal lives. –Nassim Nicholas Taleb, author of The Black Swan
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I have decided to add a new category that actually talks about events that have far reaching effects. Natural disasters and war are examples, and the reason we need to talk about that here is that contractors are very much needed in order to deal with these kinds of events. Contractor operations are also impacted by these events, and this stuff can really screw up the logistics for some global operation. As I speak, there are contractors waiting to go home who can’t, or guys in airports just waiting around for their flight. Logistics for the wars will be impacted as well. That is why we need to care.
BSE (Black Swan Events) can also arise from political upheaval or coups. A BSE could be something small like a extremely deadly virus, or something odd that changes the dynamic. Drones could be considered BSE’s, because they are something new to warfare that is forcing everyone to rethink strategies.
I also don’t want to get in the habit of calling everything new a BSE.(I will use Nassim’s three attributes for BSE’s) This category will be for only the big stuff, that really shakes the world. This volcano is one of those events, much like the Haiti earthquake or the Polish leadership getting killed in a plane accident. Thanks to Matt for giving me the heads up and cluing me in on the BSE potential. –Matt
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Volcano illustrates world’s interconnectedness
By MICHAEL TARM
April 17, 2010
CHICAGO — A volcano erupts in Iceland, and the effects ripple around the globe: A mom in Romania frets about making her son’s wedding in Texas. A florist in New York worries shipments won’t arrive. Patients awaiting treatment in Nigeria have to wait another week for the doctors.
The fallout from the ash cloud looming over Europe illustrates just how interconnected our world has become.
Thousands of planes fly millions of passengers and tons of cargo each day, providing the economic lifeblood of nations and businesses. The flights deliver products for sale or items as small as a specialized tool that lets a factory keep operating.
The planes also bring medicines to hospitals and food aid to earthquake or hurricane victims. And they bring war and peace. Soldiers are often transported to and from hot spots by air.