Feral Jundi

Tuesday, December 29, 2009

Strategy: The Failure Of Today’s Counter Piracy Strategy

   I don’t care what any of the experts think on this one.  It doesn’t take a defense analyst or a counter piracy expert to look at these two stories, and the one I posted about the chemical tanker and fertilizer ship being taken, and deduct that the current strategy is not working.

   Look at this first story I posted below. The Dutch capture 13 pirates, and they had to release them because no one wanted to deal with them?  And then they had to give them food and fuel so they could ‘make it home alright’? How sweet of us. Pfffft. This is lunacy.  No wonder this whole piracy thing is increasing, because it is the ultimate criminal venture to be in.

   The next story really spells out the failure of the strategy.  We have a massive flotilla of navies from all over the world, that costs millions of dollars to operate every day, and this is what we get out of that investment? An increase in successful pirate operations?  Who the hell is in charge of this mess?

   The strategy I propose is pretty simple. Make it mandatory that all ships have armed security, and they all have the means to contact a Naval quick reaction force via protected communications. Put the cost of security and proper communications on the shipping industry, and only use a few key Naval vessels for back up.  If a ship gets into a fight with pirates, then they put out the distress call to the closest strategically placed Naval QRF, and do the best they can to hang on until they get there. Hell, we could just have armed drones flying around all day to act as back up. But just as long as there is competent and well armed security on these boats, then this will give the boats enough time to out maneuver the pirates or hang on until help gets on station.

   We could also hunt them down at sea, but good luck with that.  It would take thousands of boats, canvasing the sea, all with the right to search and seize vessels.  Even then, these pirates will just hide on a fishing vessel and pretend to be safe, until the hunting vessels are gone.  I say if we are going to hunt them, then you use really good bait, which is why it is so important to have armed ships with a Naval QRF to back them up. That QRF should also be in the form of aviation, and not some slow cruising boat that would take an hour to get where it needs to be. That is my idea of a a QRF on the ocean.

   The second part of my strategy is all about dealing with the land problem, and that requires eradicating any threats to the government, and giving the government the time and support necessary in order to establish a solid governance over the land. But it all requires a professional army to do a proper job of cleaning up that resistance, and establishing control over key corridors and areas. Anything is possible, just as long as you have the manpower and resources to contribute to the effort.  You could either use a competent PMC (something similar to Executive Outcomes) or try to get an organized and well trained Army that is not busy with the current wars we are in.  Good luck with that last one.

   The point being, is that we really cannot be effective at sea, if we do not have a land based component of our strategy. Until we do what we have to do, these pirates will only continue to get more wealthier, more bold, more greedier, and probably more dangerous because now they can afford the good stuff. –Matt

Edit: 12/31/2009 – Further proof of the failure.  Look at these numbers. (I posted the rest in the comments section)

Mr. PHAM: Unfortunately, and I hate to rain on the parades of the world’s navies, but they haven’t sent an unambiguous message. Since August of 2008 to mid December 2009, the combined navies of the world have stopped 706 pirates. Of these 706, 11 were killed in the altercations with the navies. Four hundred and eleven, however, were simply catch and release because the various countries of the world can’t agree on rules for prosecution.

And so the pirates look at this and say the chances of actually being caught and actually having to suffer some legal penalty, 46 convicted out of 706 stopped, your chances are pretty slim.

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Captured Somali pirates get away scot-free

December 18 2009

The Dutch navy frigate HNLMS Evertsen has released 13 Somali pirates who were captured earlier this month. The European Union failed to find a country willing to put them on trial on suspicion of piracy and ordered their release on Thursday.The pirates were kept in detention on the ship’s aft deck, which was “an unpleasant situation” according to the Dutch Defence Ministry. They were released near Djibouti and transferred to their own ship, which had been towed all the way by HNLMS Evertsen.

HNLMS Evertsen was part of an EU mission off the Somali coast. The men were arrested when they attempted to hijack a merchant ship.

(more…)

Maritime Security: Somali Pirates Hijack A Chemical Tanker And Ship Hauling Fertilizer

   Does anyone else see how scary this really is?  We freak out about one Nigerian dude on a plane with explosive underwear, yet pirates have just hijacked two of the largest floating potential bombs you could ever get.  So what happens when AQ contracts out the services of these pirates? The Gulf of Aden is smack dab in the middle of Somalia and Yemen, two countries ravaged by war and Islamic extremism, and now pirates have just captured a chemical tanker and ship carrying fertilizer. Am I the only one seeing the potential here?

   The other one that gets me about this is how much are we spending on all of these navies floating around out there, and what is the return on investment?  In my view, there should be ‘no hijacked vessels’ for the amount being spent.  Which leads me to my next point.  Put armed guards on the boats for crying out loud, and put the cost of security on the shipping companies.  Use the navies as QRF’s or coast guards to help assist vessels that get into gun battles.  And for all the ultra sensitive chemical and petrol tankers, assign one escort ship to them, either private or government, and call it good. That way, they can draw any fire of the pirates, away from the big vessel and on to the escort vessel for a fight.  That’s just for the defense.

   For the offense, we have to fix things on the land, so that there is nothing safe for pirates to go home too.  Until we do fix things on land, we will continue to deal with these dorks on the open seas for a long long time. The Barbary Pirates are a prime historical example for what is going on right now, and these guys have a business model that works.

   Now if we continue to depend upon large lumbering navies to defend hundreds of ships from little tiny boats with pirates on them, who are spread out amongst thousands of square miles of ocean, we will continue to have problems.  To me, taking the gloves off and getting down to business, is basically creating a business out of eradicating pirates. The pirates have a business model that drives them, we need a business model that drives our goal of stopping them.  That means Letters of Marque and Reprisal being issued to competent modern day privateers.  If you create a bounty system, as well as allow privateers to keep a percentage of whatever that pirate company had in terms of assets, then you could definitely spark the interest of private industry for something like this. –Matt

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Somali Pirates Hijack Two Vessels

December 29, 2009

NAIROBI, Kenya — Somali pirates seized a ship carrying fertilizer from the U.S. in the Indian Ocean and a British-flagged chemical tanker in the heavily patrolled Gulf of Aden — the first merchant vessel to be hijacked in the gulf in nearly six months, officials said Tuesday.

The hijackings late Monday showed that pirates are relentless in their pursuit of quick money from ransoms and that ship owners need to take extra precaution when sailing in the Horn of Africa, said Noel Choong, who heads the International Maritime Bureau’s piracy reporting center in Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia.

The waters off Somalia are teeming with pirates, who have hijacked dozens of ships for multimillion-dollar ransoms in the past two years. An international naval force now patrols the Gulf of Aden, one of the world’s busiest shipping lanes.

After the latest hijackings, pirates now hold 12 vessels and 263 crew members, Mr. Choong said. Pirates anchor their captured crafts near Somalia’s shore in the pirate strongholds of Haradhere and Hobyo. International forces can’t rescue the vessels without risking the lives of the crew, leaving negotiated ransoms as the only safe means of resolution.

The latest incidents brought the number of attacks in the Gulf of Aden and off Somalia to 214 this year, with 47 vessels hijacked, Mr. Choong said. That compares to 42 successful attacks out of 111 attempts in 2008, before the EU Naval Force deployed in the Gulf of Aden in December 2008.

(more…)

Thursday, December 17, 2009

Somalia: A Pirate’s Life Is Good In Somalia

Filed under: Somalia — Tags: , , , , , — Matt @ 10:33 AM

   Amazing.  If you read this, it matches exactly how the US privateers impacted the local colonies back in our early history.  The question I have, is what direction will this go?  Will Al Shabaab demand a cut or participate in these ventures to make money for jihad?  If the local religious leaders keep scorning the capitalist activities of these newly rich pirates, then maybe religious extremists will attach the whole piracy thing to jihad, in order to keep the activity going strong and take advantage of the skills of these guys?

    It is an excellent money maker, and if Al Qaeda is not doing too well in the donations department, then I could see them going down this path.  I could also see them going down the drug smuggling path, just as long as they can somehow tie it into jihad. If they can justify suicide bombers and killing innocents in jihad, they can justify privateering and drug smuggling.

   Despite the direction it goes, these guys will continue to get more loot.  They have a taste of that good life, and they will not let go of that anytime soon. Piracy is king in Somalia, and all the kids are doing it.

    I say break out the LoM and lets make a pirate’s life miserable and poor. Turn the eradication of pirates, into a full blown industry and take back the high seas. –Matt

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A pirate’s life is good in Somalia

Thursday, December 17, 2009

Mohamed Olad Hassan

BOSSASO, Somalia

A parcel of land here that sold for $12,000 two years ago now costs more than $20,000. The price of a nice pair of men’s shoes has gone up from $20 to $50. The reason: pirates. The influx of millions of dollars in ransoms has changed life in this coastal Muslim community, driving prices up and creating a schism between the pirate haves and have-nots. As piracy ramps up again with the end of the monsoon season, the lifestyle of the pirates – big houses, fast cars and easy drugs – is decried by both religious leaders and ordinary villagers.

“The use of drugs such as cannabis and the drinking of alcohol, sex and other obnoxious misconduct are now becoming common within the pirates, causing social problems,” said Sheik Ahmed, a mosque leader in the town of Galkayo. “That is what is worrying us, a lot more than the risk they pose to the foreign ships and crew.”

(more…)

Sunday, December 6, 2009

Somalia: P.M. Calls for Plan Like U.S. Afghan Strategy

Filed under: Somalia — Tags: , , , , , — Matt @ 6:53 AM

     You know, this PM has a point.  We are investing a lot of troops and resources to Afghanistan, but there are other centers of gravity for the enemy that we should be focusing on.  One of them is Somalia, and the enemy is gaining momentum there as well. Money and manpower issues come to mind as to why we are not ‘surging’ into Somalia.

   He also mentioned another fantastic point.  For the amount of money we are spending on all of these massive navies to go after small little boats with pirates in them, we could certainly re-evaluate that process and use that money for a better return on investment.

   We could instead force the shipping industry to provide their own security, and then the costs could easily be passed down to the companies, and then to the consumer. It is already happening like that, but instead of security costs, the shipping companies are having to pay for increased insurance do to kidnappings.  I say lower the kidnapping potential by increasing security on the boats. Invest in security, and not insane insurance costs that only go up as the pirates capture more boats.  That makes economic sense.

    Also minimize the naval presence out there, and focus on being a quick reaction force or QRF to all these security contractors on boats.  The taxpayers of all the countries are paying for these massive naval operations that are not effective. It’s like using elephants to kill mice.

    Thanks to David who sent me the article below this one, this only strengthens the point that large navies are not that effective at stopping all of these small scale attacks.  They cannot be every where and at all times.  But security on boats can be on scene at the right time, and every time.  The monopoly on the application of the use of force, must be loosened, and there must be an effort to allow and even encourage the hardening of these boats.

   But back to the money.  Just imagine if instead of spending millions every day for all of these navies, to instead put that down on a land based strategy with some teeth?  It could happen, but it will take a re-thinking of the proper allocation of money and manpower for this to take place.  It would also take political will to communicate why this needs to happen. –Matt

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Somali PM Calls for Plan Like US Afghan Strategy

05 December 2009

VOA News

In a letter published Saturday in the British newspaper ‘The Times,’ Omar Sharmarke said Obama’s plan for Afghanistan, announced in a speech Tuesday, ‘marks a sea change in international support to troubled countries.’

Somalia’s prime minister is asking for U.S. President Barack Obama’s vision for Afghanistan to be applied to his country.In a letter published Saturday in the British newspaper The Times, Omar Sharmarke said Obama’s plan for Afghanistan, announced in a speech Tuesday, “marks a sea change in international support to troubled countries.”Prime Minister Sharmarke said Somalia needs similar aid, to restore an effective government and train security forces, to police Somalia’s waters to ensure only Somalis profit from the fish, oil, and gas, and to launch a vocational training program for young people. (more…)

Wednesday, December 2, 2009

Quotes: Some Words About The Somali Pirate Stock Exchange

Filed under: Maritime Security,Somalia — Tags: , , , , — Matt @ 10:47 AM

   Now this is innovative, and thanks to Doug for sending me this.  Any bets that Al Qaeda or Al Shabaab will be taking part in this stock exchange? –Matt

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‘”Four months ago, during the monsoon rains, we decided to set up this stock exchange. We started with 15 ‘maritime companies’ and now we are hosting 72. Ten of them have so far been successful at hijacking,” Mohammed said.  ‘The shares are open to all and everybody can take part, whether personally at sea or on land by providing cash, weapons or useful materials … we’ve made piracy a community activity… “Let the anti-piracy navies continue their search for us. We have no worries because our motto for the job is ‘do or die’.” Piracy investor Sahra Ibrahim, a 22-year-old divorcee, was lined up with others waiting for her cut of a ransom pay-out after one of the gangs freed a Spanish tuna fishing vessel. “I am waiting for my share after I contributed a rocket-propelled grenade for the operation,” she said, adding that she got the weapon from her ex-husband in alimony. “I am really happy and lucky. I have made $75,000 in only 38 days since I joined the ‘company’.” -from this article here.

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