Feral Jundi

Monday, August 1, 2011

Publications: Claire Lee Chennault–Theorist And Campaign Planner, By Major John M Kelley

I wanted to post this as a resource for anyone studying private military forces and their uses by nations. Claire Lee Chennault led the company called the American Volunteer Group or AVG in China against the Japanese after the bombing of Pearl Harbor, all with US blessing. His small force of mercenary pilots fought for 600 dollars a month (which was two to three times more than their military pay) and 500 dollars per Japanese aircraft they shot down.(offense industry)

What makes Claire significant is his theory of war, and the US military’s desire not to heed his theories. Matter of fact, it was this clash that led to Claire leaving the military, and later going to China with the blessings of the US to advise China’s fledgling air force. Claire in essence had an outlet to apply his theories of war, and not only did he advise the Chinese, but raised a mercenary army to assist.

This small mercenary army of aviators took on the entire Japanese air force at that time, and it was Claire’s planning and strategic thinking that evened the odds against the Japanese. He was certainly able to prove his theories of air power as soon as Japan bombed Pearl Harbor and brought the US into outright war with Japan. AVG was the only asset of the US that could strike back at the Japanese immediately after that attack.

And boy did they stick it to the Japanese. Their private war lasted about 6 months, and they did some damage:

The AVG was officially credited with 297 enemy aircraft destroyed, including 229 in the air. However, a researcher who surveyed Japanese accounts concluded that the number was much lower: 115. Fourteen AVG pilots were killed in action, captured, or disappeared on combat missions. Two died of wounds sustained in bombing raids, and six were killed in accidents during the Flying Tigers’ existence as a combat force.

The fight was also very uneven, and this was a PMC versus the air force and resources of a nation. Here is a statistic of how many folks we are talking about. Which further emphasizes how the AVG had to really depend upon the support of the people and really effective use of aerial strategy.

By November 1941, when the pilots were trained and most of the P-40s had arrived in Asia, the Flying Tigers were divided into three squadrons: 1st Squadron (“Adam & Eves”); 2nd Squadron (“Panda Bears”) and 3rd Squadron (“Hell’s Angels”).They were assigned to opposite ends of the Burma Road to protect this vital line of communications. Two squadrons were based at Kunming in China and a third at Mingaladon Airport near Rangoon. When the United States officially entered the war, the AVG had 82 pilots and 79 aircraft, although not all were combat-ready.

The paper below goes into detail about the theory, and pay particular attention to how similar the thinking is to Sun Tzu. Yet there is not one mention of him studying Sun Tzu?  You see concepts like attacking weakness with strength, using deception, the effective use of lookouts and networks, and the whole ‘know yourself, know your enemy’ theme.  He really focused on the strengths of the Chinese people and bringing them into the strategy.  The people are the ones that called in enemy fighter positions through an organized system of observers, helped build up the 100 bases that were crucial to Claire’s mobility strategy, and helped rescue downed pilots. This was an aerial version of guerrilla warfare.

There is a lot of good stuff in this paper, and the point I want folks to think about for the grand picture of this story, is that private force can be a strategic asset of a nation.  Claire and his AVG ‘airmen of fortune’ were celebrated in the US and world as they prosecuted the war in Asia in the post Pearl Harbor days. It would be like DynCorp waging war in Pakistan in the days right after 9/11, and everyone cheering them on as they decimate terrorist hideouts.

The AVG or the Flying Tigers also remind me of Stirling’s Private Army in Yemen. I wouldn’t be surprised if AVG is what inspired Stirling, because AVG’s private war in Asia was big news around the world.  You could also classify this as a case for the successful use of a PMC in offensive operations, or actually fighting a war. (much like with Executive Outcomes) And of course, it is another case study of offense industry, with the use of bounties as an incentive. So for all of those reasons, I think it is important to give some attention and credit to this man and what he and his company was able to accomplish. –Matt

General Claire Chennault

Monday, July 18, 2011

Cool Stuff: The Children’s Illustrated Clauswitz

Filed under: Cool Stuff,Strategy,War Art — Tags: , , , , , , — Matt @ 2:14 PM

I chuckled when I first found out about this and was considering making this a ‘funny stuff’ post. But then I started really looking at this effort from a different point of view, and that is if you can reduce the theories of Clauswitz into a children’s book, then that is pretty damned cool and impressive. It would also really open up the world of strategy to children, and likewise shame adults who did not know about this strategy.

The other thing I like about this project is that I could see this book selling quite well to the defense industry families and military families of the world. Parents are always interested in the whole ‘Baby Einstein’ concept of buying products that could make their children smarter. Imagine a child learning the very basic elements of strategy at such a young age, and how that could apply to all of their endeavors for the rest of their lives?  I know I have been personally inspired by the leading strategies of business and war, and this knowledge has been immensely helpful for understanding the world we live in. That knowledge of strategy could also make a person wealthy, help in conflict resolution, help in contests of business or war, or even help in their personal survival. Lot’s of positives that can come from this knowledge. So what’s next?  A children’s illustrated guide for Sun Tzu or Col. John Boyd? –Matt

Blog for Children’s Illustrated Clauswitz here.

Tuesday, July 12, 2011

Maritime Security: Pirates Are Using NVG’s And Hacking Shipping Company Email Accounts

I had to put this one out there, because this is just one more indication as to what kind of game the pirates are playing. With the amount of money they are making from ransoms, a fantastic investment for them would be to determine what boats ‘do not have’ armed security, just so they can focus on those boats. From hacking accounts, to stealing or purchasing information, to watching the departing vessels and identifying if they have security–they are doing it all.

They are probably scouring the internet in other places as well, trying to obtain any information that would be helpful. That means online forums, Facebook, Twitter, blogs, open source news articles–all of the things that everyone in the world has access too.

What is troubling as well, is there are no laws or regulations on OPSEC for maritime security.  So if a guy wants to post photos or talk about their latest contract out on the high seas, they could do it without any pressure against the practice. It is on that individual, that company that hires them, and that shipping company that uses that guard force to keep this in check. I guess the thing that guys have to remember is that you have to assume that anything you post on your Facebook or forum, will be read by the public to include criminals. Criminal entities will find a way to read your stuff, despite your privacy settings, if they have determined that your information has value.

Likewise, if you are the owner of a security company or shipping company, I would suggest taking as many precautions as possible to protect your email accounts from hackers.  Perhaps look at using more secure email services like Hushmail or similar encrypted mail systems. Anything to make it more difficult for these guys to find out what you are up to. An IT security specialist could be a good investment for getting you started on a secure system of communications and protocols.

The other thing I wanted to bring up, that this article kind of delved into, is the latest pirate tactical developments. It is my understanding that not only are pirates using cutting torches so they can break into safe rooms, but are also using night vision goggles or NVG’s to attack at night.(thanks to a reader for the tip) With that said, I would highly suggest to companies that have teams on boats to equip your folks with NVG’s and ensure your ‘night time strategy and tactics’ are sound. Pirates are attacking at night because it is a tactical advantage. You must also assume that they have thought about the other tools of night time boarding, and this should give the naval warfare experts out there plenty to chew on as to how best to defeat such a thing.

So what else could the pirates do to gain advantage?  How about using UAV’s?  A store bought RC plane with a camera or night vision camera, could easily be deployed by a pirate crew to probe your vessel’s defenses. They could also use UAV’s to look for potential targets out there.  Or an investor might come along that has access to the bigger more capable UAV’s, and provide that for the operation. Anything the pirates think they need to be successful will be looked at in terms of cost benefit analysis.

Another thing they could do is actually go into the water with a re-breather, and at night, much like a commando unit would do, all to close the distance and gain surprise. They could also contract the services of criminal groups that might specialize in this kind of diving. Anything for them to gain relative superiority in their assault.

I would also think that pirates have been studying military tactics and strategy for operations on the high seas. Anything that a modern naval force would do in terms of boarding ships, a pirate crew will try to copy.(mimicry strategy) Pirates will watch youtube videos, or watch in real time as naval forces do their thing out there. They are watching and learning, and driven by the thrill of the hunt and the massive reward for their efforts.

Another development is upgrades to current weaponry. This article from Maritime Security Review discussed the possibility that pirates are now using RPG 29’s. Here is the quote:

One maritime security sources said that this may point to the acquisition of the RPG 29 model, rather than the standard RPG 7.
RPG 29s were developed in Russia in the 1980s, and pack a punch sufficient to penetrate the frontal armour of most modern tanks. Secondhand models are now in circulation in the Middle East. Security professionals have feared for some time that the Somalis would sooner or later get their hands on them.
According to experts, when the more powerful RPGs are deployed, “A vessel’s hull might be easily breached, with further damage, injury or even death incurred to the crew within.”

The other thing to look at is the money and support mechanism for today’s piracy. Investors know a good deal when they see it, and especially jihadist investors. If groups like Al Shabab are demanding a 20 percent cut in the profits, then now piracy becomes a cash cow for them and their operations. In some parts of the world, piracy might be the only real criminal/fund raising game in town, and the rise in piracy attacks only confirms the popularity and profitability of this type of offense industry.

Piracy also has a lot of cross over benefits as well. You can use these guys to smuggle drugs, weapons, terrorists,  human traffic, and all for profit. You can use these guys to capture large boats to use as weapons against ports, blocking waterways, or attacking other vessels, or as bases for attacks. So piracy is an excellent game for terrorists and criminals to get into, and they are mutually beneficial to each other. In order to stay ahead of these guys in terms of strategy and tactics, all of us must continue to study and ‘know our enemy’.  Never underestimate them and always assume that if you can think it up, they have probably came up with the same idea. –Matt

Pirate Games
July 12, 2011

The Somali pirate gangs have adapted to the growing fleet of warships and maritime patrol aircraft arrayed against them. One of the new tricks is getting into the databases of shipping companies and their Internet based communications. This information is bought from criminal operatives in London and the Persian Gulf, and provides precise information where the most lucrative and vulnerable ships will be.
Much of the money obtained from ransoms is used to buy goods and services from Persian Gulf merchants and other “specialists.” This includes assistance in negotiating with the shipping and insurance companies, as well as other services. This includes intelligence. The Persian Gulf is rife with corruption, and this makes it easier to buy needed information. That’s harder to do in London (the center of the maritime insurance industry, and where much information on where the most valuable ships are). British police have detected some efforts to obtain information for pirates, and believe these efforts are becoming more intense.

(more…)

Thursday, June 23, 2011

Strategy: If The Rule You Followed Brought You To This….Of What Use Was The Rule?

Filed under: Quotes,Strategy,Video — Tags: , , , — Matt @ 1:56 PM

Sometimes, the best example of strategy can be found in the simplest and most interesting places. I believe this scene in the movie called No Country For Old Men, is a fantastic example of the importance of picking the right strategy. These two men in the scene were involved in a game of hunting one another, and the character played by Woody Harrelson named Carson Wells lost. The hitman played by Javier Bardem is named Anton Chigurh, and he obviously had a better strategy for this game. Anton also summed up the very essence of winning, be it business or war. He says: ‘If the rule you followed brought you to this…..of what use was the rule?’. Words to live by…-Matt


Tuesday, April 12, 2011

Building Snowmobiles: For Total War And Netwar, You Need Both A ‘Defense Industry’ And An ‘Offense Industry’

Total war is a war in which a belligerent engages in the complete mobilization of all their available resources and population.
In the mid-19th Century, “total war” was identified by scholars as a separate class of warfare. In a total war, there is less differentiation between combatants and civilians than in other conflicts, and sometimes no such differentiation at all, as nearly every human resource, civilians and soldiers alike, can be considered to be part of the belligerent effort. -General Ludendorff, Clausewitz, General Lemay

Netwar is a term developed by RAND researchers John Arquilla and David Ronfeldt to describe an emergent form of low intensity conflict, crime, and activism waged by social networked actors. Typical netwar actors might include transnational terrorists, criminal organizations, activist groups, and social movements that employ decentralized, flexible network structures.-wikipedia

Very cool and this was by far the most interesting article I have read about netwar or networks in this current war.  Bravo to General McChrystal for writing this and sharing. It is food for thought, and I highly recommend reading this thing.

Probably what really jumped out at me after reading this, is that mimicry strategy is what McChrystal is talking about here.  Funny how this pattern continues to repeat itself in war fighting.  It also really complements what John Arquilla and David Ronfeldt talked about with Netwar. But most importantly, McChrystal and the authors of this concept both agreed that the best way to defeat a network, is with a network.

Now this is where I want to add my little angle to the whole concept.  I personally think that the US military is not nimble enough or organized properly to act like a network. Even these leaders and strategists mentioned have agreed on that point. Sure, maybe some of the special forces units within the military might be able to accomplish this, but will there be enough SF teams to keep up with all the cartels, pirates, terrorists, and cyber-hackers?

What about the police, both federal and state?  With transnational terrorists, criminal organizations etc., are there enough law enforcement to keep up with the deluge? In both the military and police examples, I do not think that they can match the size, spread and scope of today’s miscreants.  An example is the drug war against the cartels. It is overwhelming the Mexican government, and the US is not doing that great of a job either, despite all the efforts of law enforcement.

In the war against these folks like Al Qaeda, pirates or the cartels, I have doubts that there are enough military, police or intelligence assets to keep up with the formation of all of these networks. And the simple fact that Osama Bin Laden is still free to move around in this big world of ours, indicates to me a problem. When trying to locate a needle in the haystack, the more folks you have participating in that process, the higher the chance of finding the thing or person you are looking for. Many hands make light work, so to speak.

So what is missing is scalability of the current netwar that governments are waging against these viruses of society. What I propose is that what is missing is an equally decentralized and flexible network that can compete with the growth of these non-state actors and their enterprises.  What I think is missing in this war, is a licensed and regulated market that profits from our enemy’s destruction. One created to promote netwar (or whatever works). That last part is crucial.

I have talked about the concept of the Letter of Marque and Reprisal in the past, and of how important privateers were to early America.  I have also highlighted what makes the drug cartels or modern day pirate industries so strong–and that is the drive of monetary gain or profit.  With terrorists, their profit is a different currency that is spiritually based. A suicide bomber profits from their act, because they are told and belive that they have secured a better life in heaven (or whatever place they go). Everyone does what they do, because of personal gain.  It could be monetary gain, spiritual gain, political gain, etc.  The point being is that this gain or profit, is what fuels their enterprise.  In order to defeat that enterprise, you need an enterprise that is equal in size and scope and vitality.

I believe that a purely government venture is a half measure. The full measure of war against these non-state actors, is to include private industry in the process of destroying these folks. Today’s private industry is not used in this way, and the resistance against such a thing indicates the ego and naivety of today’s war planners and law enforcement leaders. No one likes to admit that they are overwhelmed and they certainly do not want to compete with private industry.

It’s kind of like how the Postal Service viewed companies like Fedex or UPS in the beginning. But of course the government postal system and private industry are still in existence today, and they co-exist just fine. If anything, they learn from each other and the competition drives innovation in each group. If you go into a Post Office today, they look and feel like a Fedex or UPS store, and their prices and even customer service are comparable.

Now to apply this example to the war effort, imagine a company like Dyncorp capturing or killing Osama Bin Laden? I mean after Gary Faulkner did his thing in Pakistan, all types of feathers were ruffled, and everyone in government, military and the media were all balking at the idea of an individual without any government guidance going after OBL? Talk about ego…. I think most Americans, and most of the world wouldn’t care who nabbed this guy or how it was done–just that he was captured or killed–end of story.

And this is the point I am trying to convey.  I think a private company or individual could be quite effective in this war, if given the license and legal authority to do so by their government. But what is most important to this relationship between private industry and government, is that once given the approval, a company can organize, hire the talented people, find the most suitable ideas for the task, purchase the best equipment and weapons, and create a winning strategy to gain profit.  That is a very powerful concept.  Those companies that are not innovative or are hard working, will not succeed.  But those companies that get it, and have the flexibility needed to do what they got to do, will be rewarded by profit, and that profit will drive that engine of innovation for the fight.

Not only that, but once successful companies come onto the scene–whether small or large, then others will copy what they are doing.  Pure mimicry strategy, but at the business/war fighting level.  You see the same pattern with today’s pirates, cartels, and terrorists. They too use mimicry strategy, and copy the models of operation that give them the most profit and reward.  Money or spiritual reward is what fuels the engines of these industries, and as a result, they are unstoppable. Piracy and the drug trade are prime examples, and following the rules of mimicry strategy, it would take an industry to stop these industries. Or at least keep up, because in the end, not only do you want to copy what they are doing, but add one or two things to the model of operation that gives you the edge.

Now for those that are reading this and saying, ‘what happens if these privateer companies, turn into pirates’? Funny, that is exactly the argument that the US government used after they wanted to get rid of the privateer concept and develop a fully functional navy.  The war planners used all sorts of excuses to get rid of the competition of private industry.

Of course there were privateers back then that went on to be pirates, but to me, this very small percentage of possible outcomes of this industry, are far outweighed by the positives of using private industry in this way.  I would also suggest that out of the thousands of security contractors that have cycled in and out of today’s security contracting industry, that a few might have gone on to commit crimes back home and abroad–but that is the 1 percent of 1 percent. To me, I have yet to see this ‘privateer to pirate’ phenomenon that folks continue to use as an argument against private security.

Most have served honorably, and most do not sell their services to criminal organizations. Of course there are few, and of course there are also corrupt cops or unethical and immoral military folks that do crimes as well.  Criminal acts and bad behavior are things that happen in all organizations.  And even during the Revolutionary War, most privateers went back home to be fishermen or work in shipping. Piracy was a crime that attracted criminals, pure and simple, and to classify all privateers as criminal because of the acts of a few, is dumb.

So going back to the Letter of Marque and Reprisal, which happens to be a law that the US congress has the right to use, would be just one way of licensing and regulating this private industry designed to destroy our enemies. If that is too unsettling to the powers that be, then modify the ITAR and issue license that way. I would also require companies to be bonded, and I would reopen Prize Courts so that asset seizures could be another way that companies could profit from the destruction of our enemies.

Another argument that I continue to hear against the concept, is that the Hague forbids privateering and the issuing of Letters of Marque and Reprisal.  In my view, it is not the Hague that stops us from doing this–it is a lack of political will and courage to toss out old and outdated treaties and do what is most important.  That is to win the war that is of national interest, and of the interest of the people. If winning wars is the priority, and the current war has a virus in the form of networks, then in order to compete with such networks will require an equal amount of networks–plus whatever innovation/edge.

Finally, there is another point I wanted to make, and that is today’s ‘Defense Industry’ profits off of creating weapons and equipment for the war effort, or providing defensive or logistics services in the war zones. In terms of war fighting, all companies benefit from the war continuing, and there is not a market mechanism in place to put a stop to that process. Winning a war stops that process though.

To me, what makes better sense is to create an ‘Offense Industry’, which is purely focused on destroying the enemy as quickly and as efficiently as possible, and essentially working itself out of a job. I compare it to the commercial hunting of the Buffalo in the wild west–when there was no more buffalo left (or enemy), the hunters worked themselves out of a job.  What fuels a ‘Defense Industry’ is war, and what fuels an ‘Offense Industry’ is the destruction of an enemy.  Or at least that is the goal when you create, regulate and license an ‘Offense Industry’.

Also, it should be the goal of politicians and war planners to win the war as quickly as possible, once a war has been deemed necessary to fight.  As time drags on, the enemy will learn how to compete against you, because they too have learning organizations and continuous improvement as part of their plan.  To me, if winning a war is a priority, then it should also be a priority to send everything you got at the problem to finish it as soon as possible.

The current war is coming up on the ten year point, and I have yet to see Osama Bin Laden’s head on a pike. Nor have I seen any ‘Closing Business’ signs in front of cartel businesses in Latin America. Nor have I seen today’s pirates whimpering back to their countries because piracy sucks. And we are definitely not seeing today’s lone wolf hackers or state sponsored cyber criminals receiving any threats that would give them pause. Total war (and netwar) require the strategic use of all available manpower of a nation, and/or world effort, and that requires both a vibrant Defense Industry and a well regulated and licensed Offense Industry among the fielded armies in this endeavor. Or we can continue to depend upon the few and the overwhelmed to win these wars. –Matt


It Takes a Network
The new frontline of modern warfare.
March/April 2011
BY STANLEY A. MCCHRYSTAL
From the outset of my command in Afghanistan, two or three times each week, accompanied by a few aides and often my Afghan counterparts, I would leave the International Security Assistance Force headquarters in Kabul and travel across Afghanistan — from critical cities like Kandahar to the most remote outposts in violent border regions. Ideally, we left early, traveling light and small, normally using a combination of helicopters and fixed-wing aircraft, to meet with Afghans and their leaders and to connect with our troops on the ground: Brits and Marines rolling back the enemy in Helmand, Afghan National Army troops training in Mazar-e-Sharif, French Foreign Legionnaires patrolling in Kapisa. (more…)

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