Feral Jundi

Monday, July 18, 2011

Al Qaeda: Closer Ties Between Somali And Yemeni Jihadists Threatens Oil Through Gulf Of Aden

Filed under: Al Qaeda,Letter Of Marque,Maritime Security,Somalia,Yemen — Tags: , , , , , , , — Matt @ 5:24 PM

Well this was a no brainer, but at least folks are talking about it now. So if Yemeni and Somali jihadists are working together, and Al Shabab is taking a 20 percent cut in piracy ransoms, then I wonder what the Yemeni cuts are? I mean that is a lot of shoreline now that a pirate could call home, if they were backed by the jihadists. If they did not have the support of the jihadists, then I would imagine they would come up against some problems.

The other way to look at this deal is the drug trade in Latin America. If you are a drug dealer in Central or South America, do you think you can set up your own shop and not get hassled by any of the large cartels? Of course not. If you did not cut them in, they would kill you. Or they would kill your family, and then tell you to sell more drugs for them! lol

So if Al Qaeda moves to control this corridor called the Gulf of Aden, then why wouldn’t they want to control these pirates? They could make money off of operations and they would disrupt western and middle eastern interest (oil flow, commerce). Jihadist privateering is a logical conclusion.

Now on to solutions, besides just putting armed guards on boats or squaring away those countries on land. I personally like the Q-ship idea. It is the ultimate zheng and qi strategy, and it would be one that pirates would have a very difficult time countering. The basic scheme is that you use a tanker or whatever boat as bait, and make it look like an unarmed vessel. You could even make it look like it is in distress. Then if it attracts a pirate crew and they go into attack mode and show their guns, an anti-piracy force outflanks that pirate crew and takes them down. You would have a force on the ship open up with the big guns, and a force on water that could attack. Whatever a team wants to use to get the job done. The cool thing is that there is no terrain for a pirate to hide behind, and you actually want the pirates to attack.

This idea though, would need a license by whatever country the vessel is flagged under, and there must be rules identified for killing and capturing pirates. There must be incentive as well, because if you want everyone to get involved with destroying piracy, you need to make it a venture or offense industry that ships would want to get involved with. Ideally, you would also want to capture the pirates and collect information from those detainees so networks can be studied and dismantled. So there must be a mechanism that supports the legal capture of pirates, if possible. Especially if an anti-piracy team wounds some pirates and those poor fools are in a sinking vessel. Do we let them die, or do we have a responsibility to capture them and care for them until those individuals are delivered to a detention center.

I believe all of these details could be hashed out in a Letter of Marque, much like they were in the past. As it stands now, we have armed security teams on boats that are great at repelling the assault, but they have no authorization from anyone to capture/detain or even care for wounded pirates?  What sense does it make to have shoot out’s with these guys, but have no means of legally detaining them and taking that pirate crew out of the system?

Now of course this tactic would have multiple legal issues to overcome before it would ever be considered. But honestly, something has to be done because the problem is only getting bigger and it is morphing into an animal that is certainly a threat to the global economies and innocent people. I also fear the day that pirates decide to capture a vessel and outright hand it over to Al Qaeda. Something like ramming a natural gas tanker into a heavily populated port or sinking the thing in gut of the Straits of Hormuz is a frightening thought. Believe me, if you can think it up, the other side has probably thought of it too.-Matt

Closer ties between Somali and Yemeni jihadists threatens oil through Aden Gulf
Monday, 18 July 2011
By JAMES M. DORSEY
Affiliates of Al Qaeda operating on opposite shores of key oil-export routes through the Gulf of Aden have forged closer ties in what could emerge as a substantial threat by a group that has been dealt severe body blows by the Arab revolt sweeping the Middle East and North Africa and the killing in May of Osama Bin Laden by US Navy Seals. ?The closer ties between Yemen-based Al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP) and Al Shabaab in war-shattered Somalia is sparking concern among intelligence and counter-terrorism officials who suggest that AQAP may be the driving force behind closer cooperation between the two groups.

(more…)

Tuesday, July 12, 2011

Maritime Security: Pirates Are Using NVG’s And Hacking Shipping Company Email Accounts

Filed under: Maritime Security,Strategy — Tags: , , , , , , , — Matt @ 10:33 AM

I had to put this one out there, because this is just one more indication as to what kind of game the pirates are playing. With the amount of money they are making from ransoms, a fantastic investment for them would be to determine what boats ‘do not have’ armed security, just so they can focus on those boats. From hacking accounts, to stealing or purchasing information, to watching the departing vessels and identifying if they have security–they are doing it all.

They are probably scouring the internet in other places as well, trying to obtain any information that would be helpful. That means online forums, Facebook, Twitter, blogs, open source news articles–all of the things that everyone in the world has access too.

What is troubling as well, is there are no laws or regulations on OPSEC for maritime security.  So if a guy wants to post photos or talk about their latest contract out on the high seas, they could do it without any pressure against the practice. It is on that individual, that company that hires them, and that shipping company that uses that guard force to keep this in check. I guess the thing that guys have to remember is that you have to assume that anything you post on your Facebook or forum, will be read by the public to include criminals. Criminal entities will find a way to read your stuff, despite your privacy settings, if they have determined that your information has value.

Likewise, if you are the owner of a security company or shipping company, I would suggest taking as many precautions as possible to protect your email accounts from hackers.  Perhaps look at using more secure email services like Hushmail or similar encrypted mail systems. Anything to make it more difficult for these guys to find out what you are up to. An IT security specialist could be a good investment for getting you started on a secure system of communications and protocols.

The other thing I wanted to bring up, that this article kind of delved into, is the latest pirate tactical developments. It is my understanding that not only are pirates using cutting torches so they can break into safe rooms, but are also using night vision goggles or NVG’s to attack at night.(thanks to a reader for the tip) With that said, I would highly suggest to companies that have teams on boats to equip your folks with NVG’s and ensure your ‘night time strategy and tactics’ are sound. Pirates are attacking at night because it is a tactical advantage. You must also assume that they have thought about the other tools of night time boarding, and this should give the naval warfare experts out there plenty to chew on as to how best to defeat such a thing.

So what else could the pirates do to gain advantage?  How about using UAV’s?  A store bought RC plane with a camera or night vision camera, could easily be deployed by a pirate crew to probe your vessel’s defenses. They could also use UAV’s to look for potential targets out there.  Or an investor might come along that has access to the bigger more capable UAV’s, and provide that for the operation. Anything the pirates think they need to be successful will be looked at in terms of cost benefit analysis.

Another thing they could do is actually go into the water with a re-breather, and at night, much like a commando unit would do, all to close the distance and gain surprise. They could also contract the services of criminal groups that might specialize in this kind of diving. Anything for them to gain relative superiority in their assault.

I would also think that pirates have been studying military tactics and strategy for operations on the high seas. Anything that a modern naval force would do in terms of boarding ships, a pirate crew will try to copy.(mimicry strategy) Pirates will watch youtube videos, or watch in real time as naval forces do their thing out there. They are watching and learning, and driven by the thrill of the hunt and the massive reward for their efforts.

Another development is upgrades to current weaponry. This article from Maritime Security Review discussed the possibility that pirates are now using RPG 29’s. Here is the quote:

One maritime security sources said that this may point to the acquisition of the RPG 29 model, rather than the standard RPG 7.
RPG 29s were developed in Russia in the 1980s, and pack a punch sufficient to penetrate the frontal armour of most modern tanks. Secondhand models are now in circulation in the Middle East. Security professionals have feared for some time that the Somalis would sooner or later get their hands on them.
According to experts, when the more powerful RPGs are deployed, “A vessel’s hull might be easily breached, with further damage, injury or even death incurred to the crew within.”

The other thing to look at is the money and support mechanism for today’s piracy. Investors know a good deal when they see it, and especially jihadist investors. If groups like Al Shabab are demanding a 20 percent cut in the profits, then now piracy becomes a cash cow for them and their operations. In some parts of the world, piracy might be the only real criminal/fund raising game in town, and the rise in piracy attacks only confirms the popularity and profitability of this type of offense industry.

Piracy also has a lot of cross over benefits as well. You can use these guys to smuggle drugs, weapons, terrorists,  human traffic, and all for profit. You can use these guys to capture large boats to use as weapons against ports, blocking waterways, or attacking other vessels, or as bases for attacks. So piracy is an excellent game for terrorists and criminals to get into, and they are mutually beneficial to each other. In order to stay ahead of these guys in terms of strategy and tactics, all of us must continue to study and ‘know our enemy’.  Never underestimate them and always assume that if you can think it up, they have probably came up with the same idea. –Matt

Pirate Games
July 12, 2011

The Somali pirate gangs have adapted to the growing fleet of warships and maritime patrol aircraft arrayed against them. One of the new tricks is getting into the databases of shipping companies and their Internet based communications. This information is bought from criminal operatives in London and the Persian Gulf, and provides precise information where the most lucrative and vulnerable ships will be.
Much of the money obtained from ransoms is used to buy goods and services from Persian Gulf merchants and other “specialists.” This includes assistance in negotiating with the shipping and insurance companies, as well as other services. This includes intelligence. The Persian Gulf is rife with corruption, and this makes it easier to buy needed information. That’s harder to do in London (the center of the maritime insurance industry, and where much information on where the most valuable ships are). British police have detected some efforts to obtain information for pirates, and believe these efforts are becoming more intense.

(more…)

Wednesday, July 6, 2011

Maritime Security: UN Reports That Piracy Ransoms Are Being Funnelled To Islamist Militants

Filed under: Al Qaeda,Kidnap And Ransom,Maritime Security,Somalia — Tags: , , , , — Matt @ 9:55 PM

C-level Maritime’s Frodl said the U.S. Treasury’s Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) carried out reviews of all potential ransom payments to determine if the pirate group in question had ever handed over part of a ransom to al Shabaab.
“Most times OFAC has authorized payment because it has found no link,” Frodl said. “But if there is indeed a 20% ’tax’ being applied by Shabaab against pirate ransoms in Haradhere, a major pirate hub it now controls, then things could change.”

Boy, this is very interesting if true. The consequences could mean that the payment of ransoms would be illegal, because that money would be funding terrorism. Although I have already talked about the jihadist privateer concept awhile back, so it does not surprise me that there would be a connection between Al Shabab and pirates.

It is just one way to fund their jihad, and it also helps the pirates be effective by supplying weapons and safe haven. 20 % is also a pretty sizable chunk.  Eventually I would imagine that the pirates would port somewhere else to avoid this jihad tax, or that Al Shabab would get into the business to cut out the non-affiliated pirate middle men. Interesting stuff. –Matt

Piracy ransoms funnelled to Islamist militants: U.N.

Jul 6, 2011
By Richard Lough funnelled
Ransoms paid to Somali pirates to free merchant vessels are ending up in the hands of Islamist militants, laying shipping groups open to accusations of breaching international sanctions, U.N. officials told Reuters.
John Steed, the principal military adviser to the U.N. special envoy to Somalia and head of the envoy’s counter-piracy unit, said links between armed pirate gangs and Somalia’s al Qaeda-affiliated rebels were gradually firming.
“The payment of ransoms just like any other funding activity, illegal or otherwise, is technically in breach of the Somalia sanctions regime if it makes the security situation in Somalia worse,” said Steed.
“Especially if it is ending up in the hands of terrorists or militia leaders — and we believe it is, some directly, some more indirectly,” said Steed, a retired military officer.

(more…)

Friday, May 20, 2011

Maritime Security: Al Qaeda Considered Targeting Oil Tankers

Filed under: Al Qaeda,Maritime Security,Saudi Arabia — Tags: , , , , , , — Matt @ 6:12 PM

I am sure we will get more of these reports leaking out from the Bin Laden raid material. This is of particular interest, because this supports the jihadist privateer concept I talked about awhile back. If economic attacks are on their mind, then using pirates to seize these vessels and then sink or crash them into a port is definitely something they could benefit from. Or just sinking a vessel in a key water way like the Straits of Hormuz.  There are a number of things AQ could do with a vessel like an oil tanker, and the imagination is the only limitation.

This article also mentioned AQ’s prior attempted attacks on oil infrastructure in Saudi Arabia.  Attacks on oil, be it facilities or tankers, is a symbolic attack as well as an economic attack.  For this reason, it makes perfect sense that countries like the UAE or Saudi Arabia would invest their oil money into measures that would protect their golden goose.

Finally, this only emphasizes to those security contractors out there that are protecting these vessels, that you have a very important and dangerous job. You are floating on a ‘gold goose’, and it certainly is an attractive target to pirates and terrorists alike. –Matt

Al Qaeda Considered Targeting Oil Tankers
MAY 21, 2011
By KEITH JOHNSON
Intelligence seized from Osama bin Laden’s Pakistani hideout suggested that al Qaeda is interested in attacking oil tankers, Homeland Security officials said, a discovery that has prompted the agency to warn industry officials and local law enforcement.
The warning comes on the heels of indications of continued interest by al Qaeda in attacking other favorite targets, including planes and trains.

(more…)

Wednesday, July 14, 2010

Al Qaeda: The Next Afghanistan–Somalia, Yemen, Or Both?

Filed under: Afghanistan,Africa,Al Qaeda,Somalia,Yemen — Tags: , , , , , , , , , , — Matt @ 1:52 AM

     It is important to take a step back sometimes, and get a feel for the world wide situation with this enemy we are fighting.  Afghanistan or Pakistan is not the only game in town, and what I wanted to do below is put up some current significant events that highlight how global this war is.

     A couple of things that came to mind while reading this stuff.  Imagine if both Yemen and Somalia fell to these Al Qaeda backed groups, and these countries became sanctuaries for AQ?  You would have two Islamic extremist states who would control both sides of the Gulf of Aden and turn that sucker into a gauntlet for piracy or whatever.  But I would even go as far as to say that the piracy we are now familiar with, would instead transition into something else.  We would see these pirates turn into ‘jihadist privateers’, and extremists would certainly profit from these ventures.

     The reason I say this is that both countries would be under the control of these extremists, and therefore any activity that happens in those countries under their watch, would be done with their blessing. Either directly or indirectly, they would profit from this piracy. Of course their form of the letter of marque would probably be the fatwa, but either way, I speculate that these extremists will not stop the activity.  They will be in a better position to control it and profit from this activity.

     Worse yet, obtaining ships and hostages is exactly the kind of jihadist ‘ammo’ that these guys would like. But the really big money maker for jihad, will be the transportation of drugs, guns, and people.  If Yemen and Somalia are both unstable or are under control of these extremists, this kind of money making activities will increase, and further help to fund Al Qaeda’s war against the west. They would have operating bases to train at, and they could also do business with drug cartels for transport or even storage–all for a price. Jihad requires funding, and having control of these countries would be key. Strategically speaking, it is a great move for Al Qaeda to focus on taking Yemen and Somalia.

     So what does all of this mean for our industry or for the current war effort?  Good question.  I think for our industry, we will expect to see an increased demand for armed security contractors on ships. Navies will soon reduce their costly patrols or escorts, and continue to advise the shipping industry to take on the costs of securing their own vessels.  We will still see anti-piracy operations out there, but I just don’t see it being enough to cover the kind of area we are talking about. Cost and operational scope comes to mind, and the world’s navies need private industry.  Private industry still needs the power and capabilities of those navies to come to their rescue if at a point of being overwhelmed, but still, the ocean is just too massive for the world’s navies to be every where and all at once.

     We will also see more African and Middle Eastern training opportunities for companies.  The ACOTA program is just one example, and training the various African nations who are most impacted by islamic extremists will be a big focus.  DynCorp is already training Ugandan troops before they ship out to Somalia.

     As for direct involvement, who knows?  Somalia is one of those places that absolutely needs security and stability, and it takes some serious muscle to do that.  I do not think the AU is the best force for the job, because the UN has no intention of using that army to do what it needs to do–and that is go on the offense.  Instead the AU is just sitting there and dying, while Al Shabab and others are attacking them daily. What a waste of manpower and equipment.

     I also think that it is interesting that Saudi Arabia has depended upon the company Vinnell Arabia for training up the SANG all these years, and that if Yemen turns into an ‘Afghanistan’ in the region, Saudi forces will have their hands full with dealing with terrorists pouring over the borders.  Some of that high dollar training they have been getting from Vinnell will be quite handy.

     For places like Somalia though, I say either send in a professional state sponsored army, or contract with a private military company, and give them the mission to clear and hold Somalia.(bring in contractors and the like for the build portion) And if a company like Executive Outcomes can be as successful as they were in places like Sierra Leon or Anglola, with the limited man power and resources they had, then I see no reason why a company today could not produce the same results if they followed the EO model.

     A company like Xe could put together a force that would absolutely be capable and willing to do a job like this. And now that the US government has made it clear that it fully supports and embraces the capabilities of companies like Xe for work in war zones, then I just don’t see how they are not good enough for stopping the Al Shabab in Somalia, or for battling extremists in Yemen?

     Or we can watch as those countries fall to extremists, and the neighbors to these countries pay the price.  Worse yet, terrorists from these sanctuaries span out even further into the west to conduct martyrdom missions and kill innocent people. –Matt

Is Yemen the Next Afghanistan?

New al-Qaida threat: Somali group claims blasts

Who is al-Shabab? Somali terror army extends reach

Nigerian sect leader praises al Qaeda, warns US

——————————————————————-

Is Yemen the Next Afghanistan?

By ROBERT F. WORTH

July 6, 2010

Just before dawn on Dec. 24, an American cruise missile soared high over the southern coast of the Arabian peninsula, arced down toward the dark mountains above the Rafadh Valley in Yemen’s Shabwa province and found its mark, crashing into a small stone house on a hillside where five young men were sleeping. Half a mile away, a 27-year-old Yemeni tribesman named Ali Muhammad Ahmed was awakened by the sound. Stumbling out of bed, he quickly dressed, slung his AK-47 over his shoulder and climbed down a footpath to the valley that shelters his village, two hours from the nearest paved road. He already sensed what had happened. A week earlier, an American airstrike killed dozens of people in a neighboring province as part of an expanded campaign against Al Qaeda militants. (Although the U.S. military has acknowledged playing a role in the airstrikes, it has never publicly confirmed that it fired the missiles.)

(more…)

Powered by WordPress