Mr. French, the reconstruction team leader, said, “Everyone’s feeling squirrelly now because we’re in a transition phase, where the perception was that the release of the Bucca detainees and the withdrawal of the Marines would make things worse.”
“My inclination is to say, yes, the security is worse,” he said. “Are there really any more incidents? I don’t think so.” Although the American team has not reduced its activities in the Falluja area, he said, “we keep a low profile.”
There are three things in this story to focus on. The troop withdrawals, the release of prisoners, and the threat towards contractors that are involved with reconstruction. All of those planets are in alignment for Iraq to be an active place. The insurgency will definitely try and test the Iraqi government and it’s forces with all sorts of attacks. And given the latest suicide and IED attacks, this is already starting.
There is one more factor to keep in mind, and that is the stuff going on in Iran right now. I could see Iran upping the tempo of operations in Iraq, to try and take the attention off of what’s going on in their country. That, and attacks might be used as leverage to somehow influence US actions. The rhetoric might go like this–stay out of our business in Iran, and we won’t turn on the switch in Iraq for violence. It’s just a guess, but you never know the geopolitical underpinnings of what could be going on right now over there. Either way, it is just one more factor that could contribute to possible instability in Iraq.
So with that said, the remaining security forces, meaning security contractors and military, will definitely be working hard in a rapidly evolving environment. Keep your head on a swivel guys and gals. –Matt
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June 24, 2009
Rumblings in Falluja Threaten to Disrupt Script for U.S. Withdrawal
By ROD NORDLAND
FALLUJA, Iraq — Falluja was supposed to be a success story, not a cautionary tale.
After all, by last year the city, a former insurgent stronghold, was considered one of the safest places in the country. Local Sunni sheiks had driven out the insurgent group Al Qaeda in Mesopotamia and held successful elections, and American engineers were hard at work on a showcase reconstruction project: a $100 million wastewater treatment plant meant to be a model for civilian advances in Iraq.