Feral Jundi

Monday, July 18, 2011

Al Qaeda: Closer Ties Between Somali And Yemeni Jihadists Threatens Oil Through Gulf Of Aden

Well this was a no brainer, but at least folks are talking about it now. So if Yemeni and Somali jihadists are working together, and Al Shabab is taking a 20 percent cut in piracy ransoms, then I wonder what the Yemeni cuts are? I mean that is a lot of shoreline now that a pirate could call home, if they were backed by the jihadists. If they did not have the support of the jihadists, then I would imagine they would come up against some problems.

The other way to look at this deal is the drug trade in Latin America. If you are a drug dealer in Central or South America, do you think you can set up your own shop and not get hassled by any of the large cartels? Of course not. If you did not cut them in, they would kill you. Or they would kill your family, and then tell you to sell more drugs for them! lol

So if Al Qaeda moves to control this corridor called the Gulf of Aden, then why wouldn’t they want to control these pirates? They could make money off of operations and they would disrupt western and middle eastern interest (oil flow, commerce). Jihadist privateering is a logical conclusion.

Now on to solutions, besides just putting armed guards on boats or squaring away those countries on land. I personally like the Q-ship idea. It is the ultimate zheng and qi strategy, and it would be one that pirates would have a very difficult time countering. The basic scheme is that you use a tanker or whatever boat as bait, and make it look like an unarmed vessel. You could even make it look like it is in distress. Then if it attracts a pirate crew and they go into attack mode and show their guns, an anti-piracy force outflanks that pirate crew and takes them down. You would have a force on the ship open up with the big guns, and a force on water that could attack. Whatever a team wants to use to get the job done. The cool thing is that there is no terrain for a pirate to hide behind, and you actually want the pirates to attack.

This idea though, would need a license by whatever country the vessel is flagged under, and there must be rules identified for killing and capturing pirates. There must be incentive as well, because if you want everyone to get involved with destroying piracy, you need to make it a venture or offense industry that ships would want to get involved with. Ideally, you would also want to capture the pirates and collect information from those detainees so networks can be studied and dismantled. So there must be a mechanism that supports the legal capture of pirates, if possible. Especially if an anti-piracy team wounds some pirates and those poor fools are in a sinking vessel. Do we let them die, or do we have a responsibility to capture them and care for them until those individuals are delivered to a detention center.

I believe all of these details could be hashed out in a Letter of Marque, much like they were in the past. As it stands now, we have armed security teams on boats that are great at repelling the assault, but they have no authorization from anyone to capture/detain or even care for wounded pirates?  What sense does it make to have shoot out’s with these guys, but have no means of legally detaining them and taking that pirate crew out of the system?

Now of course this tactic would have multiple legal issues to overcome before it would ever be considered. But honestly, something has to be done because the problem is only getting bigger and it is morphing into an animal that is certainly a threat to the global economies and innocent people. I also fear the day that pirates decide to capture a vessel and outright hand it over to Al Qaeda. Something like ramming a natural gas tanker into a heavily populated port or sinking the thing in gut of the Straits of Hormuz is a frightening thought. Believe me, if you can think it up, the other side has probably thought of it too.-Matt

Closer ties between Somali and Yemeni jihadists threatens oil through Aden Gulf
Monday, 18 July 2011
By JAMES M. DORSEY
Affiliates of Al Qaeda operating on opposite shores of key oil-export routes through the Gulf of Aden have forged closer ties in what could emerge as a substantial threat by a group that has been dealt severe body blows by the Arab revolt sweeping the Middle East and North Africa and the killing in May of Osama Bin Laden by US Navy Seals. ?The closer ties between Yemen-based Al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP) and Al Shabaab in war-shattered Somalia is sparking concern among intelligence and counter-terrorism officials who suggest that AQAP may be the driving force behind closer cooperation between the two groups.

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Thursday, July 14, 2011

Maritime Security: Pirate Attacks At Sea Getting Bigger And Bolder, Says IMB Report

I have to say it. Today’s naval strategies to counter piracy is a failure. We also have the moral high ground in this fight, and yet the piracy industry flourishes. Amazing. It also points to the amazing power of a naturally occurring offense industry. Not one country has given these pirates Letters of Marque or licenses to do what they are doing, and it is an industry that has naturally evolved and expanded. Kind of like a naturally occurring virus, versus a lab manufactured virus.

To take that thought a step further, if a government wanted to manufacture an artificial offense industry, then they could probably learn a lot from this naturally occurring virus called modern piracy.  Of course you could also study the history of piracy and privateering, and find consensus from that.

Probably a good starting point would be to study Sir Henry Morgan, a very effective and intelligent privateer that did very well in the Spanish Main. Another privateer I liked was Christopher Newport, just because the guy was an amazing privateer that dominated in the Caribbean. He was also the go to guy for the Virginia Company of London, for transporting colonists to the Virgina Colonies in the new world. Christopher was a stud, and of course there are other famous privateers I am missing. The common theme here is that they were ‘authorized and given license’ to do what they did, and this public/private partnership was mutually beneficial.

Another point to bring up about these older privateers, is that these folks acted more like Marines, than seamen. That they boarded vessels, but they also conducted raids on land.  So the captains of vessels or PMC’s  had to be proficient in naval operations, and land warfare, to maintain their position of power.  Because on these boats, they were extremely democratic and followed codes/rules. If a captain sucked, no one would follow him and they would vote for someone else on the boat to lead them to the prize.  I would compare it to today’s modern fishermen in Alaska, and that if they are not able to find the crab, the crew goes home penniless and investors soon go shopping for another captain that ‘can’ find the crab. Everyone likes a winner in the world of offense industries. So privateer captains all had to know their stuff, if they wanted to keep their job. –Matt

Pirate attacks at sea getting bigger and bolder, says IMB report
Thursday, 14 July 2011
Pirate attacks on the world’s seas totalled 266 in the first six months of 2011, up from 196 incidents in the same period last year, the International Chamber of Commerce (ICC) International Maritime Bureau’s (IMB) Piracy Reporting Centre (PRC) revealed today.
More than 60% of the attacks were by Somali pirates, a majority of which were in the Arabian Sea area said the report, Piracy and Armed Robbery against Ships. As of 30 June, Somali pirates were holding 20 vessels and 420 crew, and demanding ransoms of millions of dollars for their release.
“In the last six months, Somali pirates attacked more vessels than ever before and they’re taking higher risks,” said IMB Director Pottengal Mukundan. . “This June, for the first time, pirates fired on ships in rough seas in the Indian Ocean during the monsoon season. In the past, they would have stayed away in such difficult conditions. Masters should remain vigilant.”

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Tuesday, July 12, 2011

Maritime Security: Pirates Are Using NVG’s And Hacking Shipping Company Email Accounts

I had to put this one out there, because this is just one more indication as to what kind of game the pirates are playing. With the amount of money they are making from ransoms, a fantastic investment for them would be to determine what boats ‘do not have’ armed security, just so they can focus on those boats. From hacking accounts, to stealing or purchasing information, to watching the departing vessels and identifying if they have security–they are doing it all.

They are probably scouring the internet in other places as well, trying to obtain any information that would be helpful. That means online forums, Facebook, Twitter, blogs, open source news articles–all of the things that everyone in the world has access too.

What is troubling as well, is there are no laws or regulations on OPSEC for maritime security.  So if a guy wants to post photos or talk about their latest contract out on the high seas, they could do it without any pressure against the practice. It is on that individual, that company that hires them, and that shipping company that uses that guard force to keep this in check. I guess the thing that guys have to remember is that you have to assume that anything you post on your Facebook or forum, will be read by the public to include criminals. Criminal entities will find a way to read your stuff, despite your privacy settings, if they have determined that your information has value.

Likewise, if you are the owner of a security company or shipping company, I would suggest taking as many precautions as possible to protect your email accounts from hackers.  Perhaps look at using more secure email services like Hushmail or similar encrypted mail systems. Anything to make it more difficult for these guys to find out what you are up to. An IT security specialist could be a good investment for getting you started on a secure system of communications and protocols.

The other thing I wanted to bring up, that this article kind of delved into, is the latest pirate tactical developments. It is my understanding that not only are pirates using cutting torches so they can break into safe rooms, but are also using night vision goggles or NVG’s to attack at night.(thanks to a reader for the tip) With that said, I would highly suggest to companies that have teams on boats to equip your folks with NVG’s and ensure your ‘night time strategy and tactics’ are sound. Pirates are attacking at night because it is a tactical advantage. You must also assume that they have thought about the other tools of night time boarding, and this should give the naval warfare experts out there plenty to chew on as to how best to defeat such a thing.

So what else could the pirates do to gain advantage?  How about using UAV’s?  A store bought RC plane with a camera or night vision camera, could easily be deployed by a pirate crew to probe your vessel’s defenses. They could also use UAV’s to look for potential targets out there.  Or an investor might come along that has access to the bigger more capable UAV’s, and provide that for the operation. Anything the pirates think they need to be successful will be looked at in terms of cost benefit analysis.

Another thing they could do is actually go into the water with a re-breather, and at night, much like a commando unit would do, all to close the distance and gain surprise. They could also contract the services of criminal groups that might specialize in this kind of diving. Anything for them to gain relative superiority in their assault.

I would also think that pirates have been studying military tactics and strategy for operations on the high seas. Anything that a modern naval force would do in terms of boarding ships, a pirate crew will try to copy.(mimicry strategy) Pirates will watch youtube videos, or watch in real time as naval forces do their thing out there. They are watching and learning, and driven by the thrill of the hunt and the massive reward for their efforts.

Another development is upgrades to current weaponry. This article from Maritime Security Review discussed the possibility that pirates are now using RPG 29’s. Here is the quote:

One maritime security sources said that this may point to the acquisition of the RPG 29 model, rather than the standard RPG 7.
RPG 29s were developed in Russia in the 1980s, and pack a punch sufficient to penetrate the frontal armour of most modern tanks. Secondhand models are now in circulation in the Middle East. Security professionals have feared for some time that the Somalis would sooner or later get their hands on them.
According to experts, when the more powerful RPGs are deployed, “A vessel’s hull might be easily breached, with further damage, injury or even death incurred to the crew within.”

The other thing to look at is the money and support mechanism for today’s piracy. Investors know a good deal when they see it, and especially jihadist investors. If groups like Al Shabab are demanding a 20 percent cut in the profits, then now piracy becomes a cash cow for them and their operations. In some parts of the world, piracy might be the only real criminal/fund raising game in town, and the rise in piracy attacks only confirms the popularity and profitability of this type of offense industry.

Piracy also has a lot of cross over benefits as well. You can use these guys to smuggle drugs, weapons, terrorists,  human traffic, and all for profit. You can use these guys to capture large boats to use as weapons against ports, blocking waterways, or attacking other vessels, or as bases for attacks. So piracy is an excellent game for terrorists and criminals to get into, and they are mutually beneficial to each other. In order to stay ahead of these guys in terms of strategy and tactics, all of us must continue to study and ‘know our enemy’.  Never underestimate them and always assume that if you can think it up, they have probably came up with the same idea. –Matt

Pirate Games
July 12, 2011

The Somali pirate gangs have adapted to the growing fleet of warships and maritime patrol aircraft arrayed against them. One of the new tricks is getting into the databases of shipping companies and their Internet based communications. This information is bought from criminal operatives in London and the Persian Gulf, and provides precise information where the most lucrative and vulnerable ships will be.
Much of the money obtained from ransoms is used to buy goods and services from Persian Gulf merchants and other “specialists.” This includes assistance in negotiating with the shipping and insurance companies, as well as other services. This includes intelligence. The Persian Gulf is rife with corruption, and this makes it easier to buy needed information. That’s harder to do in London (the center of the maritime insurance industry, and where much information on where the most valuable ships are). British police have detected some efforts to obtain information for pirates, and believe these efforts are becoming more intense.

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Wednesday, July 6, 2011

Maritime Security: UN Reports That Piracy Ransoms Are Being Funnelled To Islamist Militants

C-level Maritime’s Frodl said the U.S. Treasury’s Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) carried out reviews of all potential ransom payments to determine if the pirate group in question had ever handed over part of a ransom to al Shabaab.
“Most times OFAC has authorized payment because it has found no link,” Frodl said. “But if there is indeed a 20% ’tax’ being applied by Shabaab against pirate ransoms in Haradhere, a major pirate hub it now controls, then things could change.”

Boy, this is very interesting if true. The consequences could mean that the payment of ransoms would be illegal, because that money would be funding terrorism. Although I have already talked about the jihadist privateer concept awhile back, so it does not surprise me that there would be a connection between Al Shabab and pirates.

It is just one way to fund their jihad, and it also helps the pirates be effective by supplying weapons and safe haven. 20 % is also a pretty sizable chunk.  Eventually I would imagine that the pirates would port somewhere else to avoid this jihad tax, or that Al Shabab would get into the business to cut out the non-affiliated pirate middle men. Interesting stuff. –Matt

Piracy ransoms funnelled to Islamist militants: U.N.

Jul 6, 2011
By Richard Lough funnelled
Ransoms paid to Somali pirates to free merchant vessels are ending up in the hands of Islamist militants, laying shipping groups open to accusations of breaching international sanctions, U.N. officials told Reuters.
John Steed, the principal military adviser to the U.N. special envoy to Somalia and head of the envoy’s counter-piracy unit, said links between armed pirate gangs and Somalia’s al Qaeda-affiliated rebels were gradually firming.
“The payment of ransoms just like any other funding activity, illegal or otherwise, is technically in breach of the Somalia sanctions regime if it makes the security situation in Somalia worse,” said Steed.
“Especially if it is ending up in the hands of terrorists or militia leaders — and we believe it is, some directly, some more indirectly,” said Steed, a retired military officer.

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Tuesday, May 24, 2011

Funny Stuff: Somali Pirates Cut Ransoms To Clear Hijacked Ships

This is a little old and I am surprised I missed this. But better late than never. I think this speaks volumes as to how bad this piracy thing really is.  We have all the navies of the world, expending millions of dollars every day in hunting pirates and trying to put a stop to this thing–and these pirates are more successful than ever. This is an example of how effective an Offense Industry can be.  These pirates have an incentive to attack commerce, and despite all the threats to their operations, they continue to thrive.

Also, to clarify here, I despise these criminals. I do not think that hostage taking/killing/torturing or piracy itself is funny.  If anything, I am laughing at our pathetic response to this scourge. I would like to cheer on the modern nations of the world in eradicating this problem, but it’s hard to do that when the pirates are this successful. Ridiculously successful matter of fact. They are achieving results with their ever evolving offense industry, and the rest of the modern world just falters. In this case, you just have to laugh at this one. –Matt

Somali pirates cut ransoms to clear hijacked ships
By Mohamed Ahmed and Abdi sheikh
Sunday March 13, 2011
Somali pirates said on Sunday they would lower some of their ransom demands to get a faster turnover of ships they hijack in the Indian Ocean.
Armed pirate gangs, who have made millions of dollars capturing ships as far south as the Seychelles and eastwards towards India, said they were holding too many vessels and needed a quicker handover to generate more income.
“I believe there is no excuse for taking high ransoms. At least each of our groups holds ships now,” pirate Hussein told Reuters from Hobyo on the Somalian coast. He said the pirates were holding more than 30 ships at the moment.

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