“The extremist al Shabaab Islamist group is best placed to take control of Mogadishu, but this is not a foregone conclusion,” said David Shinn, a U.S. expert on the Horn of Africa at George Washington University.
While al Shabaab have spearheaded attacks this year to become the face of the insurgency, they lack popular support, and do not have enough fighters to rule on their own without alliances with Islamist movements, analysts say.
Al Shabaab’s hardline ways — such as strict imposition of sharia law, banning drinking or films, and the beheading of several suspected government collaborators — sit uncomfortably with many among Somalia’s traditionally moderate Muslims.
Both of these articles point to the same reality. Islamists will be ruling Somalia. The question is what kind of Islamists will be ruling Somalia and will they work with the west and put a check on the things we worry about? Namely harboring terrorists and allowing piracy. Al Shabaab is way to extremist for Somalis, and once they have taken control and there is no one else to fight, how will the Somalis view their form of Sharia Law?
Strategically, I think that is the idea. Let them take the city, and then diplomatically we support the moderate factions who would be better to negotiate with in the future and better for the people of Somalia. The support should not be overt though, because anything the west touches, will disgust the local populations.
And get the Ethiopians out of there, because those forces are infuriating the local populations and driving support to Al Shabaab. When the dust settles, we must find a competitor to Al Shabaab who is willing to work with the west and the rest of the world, and who also can win the support of the people. Good luck with that one though, and that is the challenge. A good first step towards that goal though is to reshuffle the deck, and watch what happens when Ethiopia leaves, the President resigns and more than likely Al Shabaab takes over.
–Matt
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Somalia: Fresh turmoil, uncertainty as president resigns
Date: 29 Dec 2008
NAIROBI, 29 December 2008 (IRIN) – Fresh turmoil and uncertainty loom for the people of Somalia – already ravaged by displacement, conflict, drought and hyper-inflation – after the country’s interim president resigned on 29 December.
Abdullahi Yusuf Ahmed resigned after disagreements with parliament and his prime minister, as well as pressure from the international community.