Another great year and part of the FJ tradition is to take a look back and reflect. Google Analytics has been an excellent tool and it helps me with my Kaizen plan for the blog.
As of this writing, I am still working as a security contractor and have done so since 2004. I have seen a lot of contracting since then and folks like myself are rare. Most contractors only do this stuff for a couple of years, and then they are gone. As for myself, I am still in the game, still healthy, and still driving forward. This blog is a part of that journey, and what a journey that has been…
Now for the big question… With such low numbers for the blog, is it worth maintaining? Absolutely. This is a record of an entire era of contracting. It has value, and I continue to come back to it for reference. I know others have as well, so in short, the blog has value and it is not going anywhere.
In past reviews, I have already mentioned the migration of conversation over to social media. I treat my Facebook Page more like a blog, and it is way faster and more connective than a website like this. But where the blog shines is when I come up with some really unique perspective or content that is not getting out there, and then I can make a record of it and share it. So that is how I use the blog nowadays and will continue using it as such.
I also use Facebook as a filter and for gaining Fingerspitzengefühl (fingertip feel or intuition) about this industry. I am interacting with more contractors from all over the world, from the guy on the ground to the upper level management of todays top companies, to everyone in-between. It is an amazing tool.
Back to the blog. Let’s talk numbers. My overall stats for the blog for 2018 is 12,410 visits and 16,315 page views. For 2017 I had 49,550 visits and 67,617 page views. Like I mentioned last year, FB is where the action is at. You are missing out if you are not over there interacting or reading. Especially if you want to keep up with folks like Eeben Barlow or other industry folks that have migrated over there.
Surprisingly, the blog is still healthy. I still recommend the folks at WPfixit for wordpress repairs. I just used them this year to help speed up the site and I was very happy with the result.
Data-wise, the top countries remain the same. Although China really showed some interest last year and moved up to number 5. It probably came from all the attention I put on Wolf Warrior 2 on Facebook. lol
The next graphic will be devices. This number is always interesting to me. Look at how many folks are reading the blog from a mobile phone? It is why I always try to keep the mobile side of this blog functional, and I do that using WPTouchPro. They are great and worth the cost.
Now for the social stuff. Where is my traffic coming from, besides the typical Google organic search? Well, a good chunk of it comes from Facebook and other social networks that I belong to. FB, Twitter, and LinkedIn are still the top three social networking sites that I work with. I share more stuff on FB, than I do on Twitter and LinkedIn.
I also like to share my stuff on the blog after I write it, and sometimes those posts go pretty far on FB and others. My top shared article over all of my social network sites last year was the one about the G4S attack in Kabul. It made the rounds on FB, Twitter, and LinkedIn.
Now on to my favorite part of analytics, and that is what was the top post last year?
The good old Job Tips post was the top post last year. That thing has been a work horse over the years and people keep stumbling upon it in search. The casualty statistics page and Fitness Standards post I did awhile back. That to me indicates that folks are still very much interested in learning about this industry, and I imagine that the guys and gals who are just starting out are trying to learn all they can about the industry they are getting into.
The top posts that I wrote in 2018 were the DoD contractors that received the Medal of Valor, the G4S Attack in Kabul, and the Spear Operations Group guys that were hired for work in Yemen.
That last story about the SOG guys in Yemen was quite the deal. They were hired to do advising and targeted killing in Yemen, and this is the first US company I know of that has dipped into the Offense Industry game. With STTEP in Nigeria, PMC Wagner in Syria and Ukraine and now Spear Operations Group in Yemen, we are starting to see a trend.
Speaking of Offense Industry, last year we also saw Erik Prince come onto the scene and pitch his plan for Afghanistan again. I am still keeping an eye on that and we will see where it goes. One thing for sure is that EP is really working the circuit on this, and has definitely gotten his ideas out there. He is also promoting all sorts of ideas and products–from gear to mining in Africa to providing solutions in Syria and Afghanistan, Erik Prince is out there mixing it up.
My favorite post from last year was the Symposium post, because it was really neat to see all the top players of the industry participate in this. It was awesome to hear Eeben discuss the keys to success for his Nigeria contract, or hear Erik Prince discuss his plan for Afghanistan. Or to hear from others that have done work on the mental health of contractors. That was a neat deal and I am not done commenting about that.
The USCENTCOM numbers have not changed much last year, and if you would like to see those trends, follow this link. By the 4th quarter of 2018, there were 49,451 contractor personnel supporting DoD in the USCENTCOM AOR. Interesting enough, the January report for contractors this year, saw an increase of 3,611 folks from last year.
2018 did not have any real embarrassments to the industry or hiccups. Although recruitment is still pretty strong for guys manning the various contracts out there. The FOBs in Afghanistan have quite a few contractors protecting them, and those numbers will probably go up. Contractors will be very important as the drawdown in Afghanistan continues. There is a continued push by the US to end the war there and negotiate a peace with the Taliban. We will see how that goes.
On Facebook and Twitter, I continue to cover my favorite subjects like Mission Command, and the unique warfare going on out there. I definitely watch what what the Russians and the Chinese are doing, but it seems the Russians are the most active when it comes to PMSC use. PMC Wagner or the Wagner Group is a big focus and I am constantly looking for solid information about them. In short, the Russians are really exploring the use of PMSC’s for Defense Industry and Offense Industry. They are finding ways of using PMSC’s to fulfill strategic goals throughout the world.
Books and Film are another one that pops up. Guys are writing about their time in as contractors, and films are being made or at least discussed about this industry. A possible movie about Erik Prince is in development, as well as the Mercenary Mum or Neryl Joyce. Rumor has it that her story might become a series, so we will see where that goes.
For predictions, I just see a continuation of contractor numbers in Iraq and Afghanistan. I do not see a rapid withdrawal from Afghanistan, because that would be problematic. If anything, there would be an increase in contractor use to cover the gaps as big military leaves. Plus we have embassies to cover, and the big bases require protection for all the logistics and aviation contracts the Afghans have. So contractors will be important to the final phase of Afghanistan, and we saw the same thing in Iraq. But eventually, the Afghan theater will be reduced to a much smaller number, much like with Iraq.
That is the thing with the Trump administration–they are interested in getting out of these wars. They want the troops out of Syria and Afghanistan, and the costs reduced. The counter terror stuff will remain. The focus will also be more distributed between the Middle East and Africa, and everywhere there are jihadists that pose a threat. We will also see some opportunity for contractors on the Southern Border of the US. I have written about that recently, and as they build the wall and tactical the problem of illegal immigration in the US, contractors will be there to help.
Now Africa is something to keep your eye on. Wagner Group and it’s affiliates are picking up more contracts there, the Nigerians are getting desperate with the ISWA/Boko Haram problem, and Al Shabaab is still terrorizing the region. Even Erik Prince discussed plans of going after mining stuff in Africa. Hell, we just set up a US presence in Somalia recently, complete with security contractors. So keep you’re eyes on Africa, and we might even see some more Offense Industry pop up there.
China will continue pressing on with OBOR and CPEC. I think they will have some issues in Xinjiang province and it sounds like they are make more moves to deal with that. Jihadists will come back to those regions and fire up their own little wars back home and I think China is sniffing that out. PMSC’s, both their own and others throughout the world, will continue to be important for their OBOR strategy.
MARSEC is steady with pirate activity continuing in all the same places as last year. I have not really seen anything new that perks me up.
I continue to watch the aerospace stuff. Draken International will win some big contracts this year for Red Air stuff and SpaceX is getting into the massive rocket game with their BFR/Starship. The F35 continues to suck all the money out of everything in the US military, and it continues to disappoint as a combat aircraft.
That is about it. Here is to a new year of contracting. –Matt