“I just did what I do best, I took your little plan and I turned it on itself. I mean look what I did to this city with a few drums of gas and a couple of bullets, hmm.” –The Joker
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The End of War, the Joker Effect, and Dangerous Times Ahead.
So now we are at that point, where we are seeing the end of the war in Iraq. I think that is good news, if we are in fact honest about the progress and where we are at with that war. There have been many excellent milestones achieved in Iraq, and we have come a long way from the bloody years of this conflict. So much sacrifice, and so much effort, and I truly hope that Iraq is able to handle this next phase of the war. Because if history tells us anything, the beginning and the end of a war, are usually the most dangerous for all involved.
As we pull out, and especially if we pullout at a rapid pace, the potential for attacks increase. I know if I were the insurgency in Iraq, this is the time where I would pick up operations and make things bloody. The image that I would want the world to see, is one of western failure, and the way you make that happen is through the ‘Joker Effect’ (from the movie Dark Knight). A couple of guys, with a good plan and some bombs and bullets, can certainly cause chaos in Iraq–even at this stage. Hell, the entire war can be defined by this concept, and this is nothing new. But at this point of the war, it will be the Iraqis taking more of that responsibility of dealing with this, and the Coalition taking less responsibility, and all with each day of this ratio changing. Once the drawdown machine begins, it is game on. The insurgency will certainly take advantage of this.
I point to the tactics of Hamas, as Israel was pulling out of Gaza. They continued to shoot rockets as the Israelis left, and that very act defeated one of the objectives of the Israelis–to stop the rocket attacks. The image presented to the world, was that the Israelis failed to stop the rocket attacks, and they just killed a bunch of civilians in the process–so Israel lost on the front as well. We all know the IDF certainly killed many of Hamas’ leadership and soldiers, and certainly outmatched them. But the rockets kept flying, despite all the efforts, and that is the point to remember, when talking about the end of a conflict and the perception of order versus chaos. It is very easy to present a situation of chaos, and the enemy knows this.
We also have images of Vietnam, with helicopters picking up folks off of rooftops, and total chaos as the communists marched upon the cities. (and on a side note, it was Air America helicopters conducting those operations) Will something similar happen in Iraq? I doubt it, but this is the perception the insurgency will want to present. We must understand that the insurgency will do what it can, to make our withdrawal look like a Vietnam/Israeli style withdrawal and that we did not achieve our stated goals.
The other factor to remember for our industry, is that we will certainly be called upon, to assist in this drawdown. This could be an extreme test for everyone involved with security contracting in Iraq. The logistics trains will need protection, and these things will be attacked. The roads will be thick with targets of opportunity, and the potential for bottleneck and choke points is great. Remember, we have supplies coming in, and war equipment leaving–the roads are going to be packed.
I also think that the looting of bases will be a huge problem as we leave. Perhaps we should set up an auction for these materials of the base, and the money of the auction will go to the military and police forces of the Iraqis? That way, the Iraqis will show an interest in controlling the security of those bases, as they are stripped down and cleaned out. Because if they don’t, you will see what happened when the British left their bases down in the south–looting and chaos. I have even seen this kind of thing at a small scale, when you leave an outpost, and how the local populations fight over and loot those facilities. The state must have control over that process, because anything else will show a complete lack of respect for the state. Order is essential, chaos is the enemy.
President Obama has also stated that a reserve force will remain. That is good, and I certainly hope that if that reserve force needs more troops in the future, just in case the situation on the ground in Iraq starts to get active again, then we will do what is necessary to help. Because if the Iraqis are not keeping up with the fire of insurgency, we could see things crumble again, and that small force stationed in Iraq will be in danger. It is in the best interest of the forces stationed there, that the Iraqi military and police, along with government is able to maintain it’s power. Will President Obama be committed to Iraq, or will he forsake Iraq if they are tested and shaken. I tend to go with the idea that Iraq must learn to take care of itself. But like with a child learning to walk, you must be there to catch them if they fall, until they can walk without any assistance at all. I just don’t want our sacrifice and good work we have done in Iraq, to be all for not, just because we did not give the end of the war the proper attention it needs.
The other thing I wanted to mention is the vacuum created, once forces have left and Iraqi police and military are left to themselves. The insurgency will certainly test these two tools of the state, and they will do all they can to make the public distrust or lack confidence in the police and military. I go back to the Joker Effect, because it only takes a few guys, to really infuse chaos into a country. For the end of this show, the insurgency will definitely do what they can to make all of the successes in Iraq, disappear under the pale of chaos. If our standard for success in Iraq was peace and stability, then the standard of success for the insurgency in Iraq will be war and chaos. Our departure and the end of the war will be the greatest test of the Iraqis, and of all the efforts we have put into this endeavor. Only time will tell….-Matt
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Obama’s Speech at Camp Lejeune, N.C.
February 27, 2009
Following are the prepared remarks of President Obama about withdrawing from Iraq at Camp Lejeune, N.C., on Feb. 27, 2009, as provided by the White House.
Good morning Marines. Good morning Camp Lejeune. Good morning Jacksonville. Thank you for that outstanding welcome. I want to thank Lieutenant General Hejlik for hosting me here today.
I also want to acknowledge all of our soldiers, sailors, airmen and Marines serving in Iraq and Afghanistan. That includes the Camp Lejeune Marines now serving with – or soon joining – the Second Marine Expeditionary Force in Iraq; those with Special Purpose Marine Air Ground Task Force in Afghanistan; and those among the 8,000 Marines who are preparing to deploy to Afghanistan. We have you in our prayers. We pay tribute to your service. We thank you and your families for all that you do for America. And I want all of you to know that there is no higher honor or greater responsibility than serving as your Commander-in-Chief.
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